Iraq's
Uncertain Future
A briefing by Amatzia Baram
May 23, 2016
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Amatzia Baram, professor emeritus at
the Department of Middle East History at Haifa University, briefed the
Middle East Forum on a conference call May 16, 2016.
The bloodless storming of Baghdad's parliament by followers of the
prominent Shiite cleric Muqtada Sadr on April 30th challenged Prime
Minister Haider Abadi's authority and exposed the fragility of his
regime.
The prime minister's failure to uphold his election promise to curb
rampant government corruption has cost him the support of Ayatollah
Sistani, Iraq's most revered Shiite cleric, as well as the trust of the
Iraqi public; and his position has been further weakened by the rapidly
deteriorating economic situation, the infighting among Shiite political,
religious and militia leaders, the looming Kurdish plebiscite about
independence, and the inconclusive campaign against ISIS.
While there is no current replacement for Abadi, the most troubling
aspect of the latest crisis is that it was solved by a resurgent Iran,
which swiftly summoned Sadr to Tehran and ordered restraint, underscoring
Washington's meager influence in Iraq; and although the military
leadership remains loyal to Abadi, its absorption in the anti-ISIS fight
prevents it from enforcing the prime minister's authority across the
country, leaving most of Baghdad virtually under the control of Shiite
militias.
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Iraqi
Prime Minister Haider Abadi's authority remains greatly compromised.
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Abadi's survival will ultimately depend on his ability to rein in
corruption - a very tall order even when he had Sistani's support and a
virtually impossible task as long as ISIS remains undefeated. This will,
however, require offering the Sunnis a major boon in order to replicate
the success of the 2006-07 Sunni Awakening, when U.S. General David
Petraeus rallied tribes to oust al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) and its allies. To
achieve this Abadi will need to change de-Baathification laws, allow the
Sunnis to establish a militia similar to the Kurdish peshmerga, and
negotiate potential terms of autonomy, among other concessions.
Abadi's success to reinstate the former Mosul governor, General Najim
Jabouri, to a command post against objections within the government has
been an encouraging sign. A two-star general under Saddam Hussein, the
veteran Sunni officer can regain the trust of the Mosul population by
liberating them. Judging by the lackluster pace of the campaign and the
limited effects of the U.S. military support, however, the achievement of
this goal could well take a long time.
Summary account by Marilyn Stern,
Middle East Forum Board of Governors
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