Monday, April 23, 2018

Eye on Iran: Iran May Resume Nuclear Program at 'Greater Speed' if Trump Exits Deal, Tehran Says



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TOP STORIES


Iran may resume its nuclear activities "at a much greater speed" if President Donald Trump moves forward with plans to pull the U.S. out of a landmark nuclear agreement and reimposes sanctions against the nation, Iran's foreign minister said Friday.


Brigadier General Hossein Salami, commander-in-chief of the Revolutionary Guards, said Friday that a war between Iran and Israel would lead to the latter's total annihilation... "Our fingers are on the trigger and the missiles are ready to launch, at any moment that the enemy wants to start something against us, we will launch... "There is no way for you but the sea."


A new U.S. State Department report has labeled the governments of Russia, Iran, China, and North Korea as "morally reprehensible" with human rights violations on a daily basis, making them "forces of instability."

NUCLEAR DEAL


Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said on Saturday Iran's atomic agency was ready with "expected and unexpected" reactions if the United States pulls out of a multinational nuclear deal, as U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened to do.


Reports of the Iran nuclear deal's imminent demise might just be premature... Even if Trump rejects a possible remedy being worked out by U.S. and European officials and decides to bring back sanctions, the key U.S. sanctions targeting Iran's oil sales will not immediately resume. As a result, oil markets and companies may have some time to adjust to the prospect of fresh U.S. sanctions, and diplomats could keep trying to avert them.


European leaders are exploring further sanctions on Iran over its ballistic missile programme and regional meddling, as well as more extensive inspection of its atomic sites as they try to dissuade the US from abandoning a nuclear deal between world powers and Tehran.


Macron arrives here Monday, on the first official state visit Trump has hosted for any leader, with a clear agenda. Iran is at the top of a to-do list that includes trade, climate change, Russia, North Korea and counterterrorism...  Macron is... seeking reassurance that Trump will not follow through with his pledge for an early withdrawal of U.S. troops from Syria. "The day we finish this war against ISIS, if we leave...we will leave the floor to the Iranian regime" and to Assad, Macron told "Fox News Sunday," using an acronym for the Islamic State. "They will prepare the new war. They will fuel the new terrorists." But Iran's activities in Syria are overshadowed by the dispute about the nuclear agreement that the United States and five other countries signed with Iran in 2015... Enter Macron. By consensus among his counterparts in Europe, if there is accommodation to be reached with Trump on Iran, he is the man to close the deal.


French President Emmanuel Macron's arrival in the U.S. kicks off a crucial week for European leaders in an uphill battle to convince Donald Trump to stay in the Iran nuclear deal.


French President Emmanuel Macron said in a Fox News Sunday interview that he has no "plan B" for the Iran nuclear deal and that the United States should stay in the agreement as long as there is no better option.


A senior U.S. administration official has told reporters that President Donald Trump and French President Emmanuel Macron will discuss the Iran nuclear agreement at the White House when they meet next week.


German Chancellor Angela Merkel defended the Iran nuclear deal in an interview with an Israeli TV channel, saying an imperfect deal is better than no deal and that her country will "watch very closely" to ensure it is being fulfilled.


French President Emmanuel Macron comes to Washington next week with two important items on his agenda: keep American troops in Syria and keep U.S. President Donald Trump in the Iran nuclear deal. Macron will have a tough sell to an American president who's made clear he wants out of both. His only chance is to meet Trump in the middle, giving him a political win at home that serves French interests at the same time.

MILITARY/INTELLIGENCE MATTERS & PROXY WARS


Iranian President Hassan Rouhani voiced support for the country's military forces to develop advance weapons, including missiles, to enhance the Islamic Republic's deterrence capabilities

U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said Mike Pompeo's nomination and possible confirmation to be the next U.S. Secretary of State is an indication to the international community that the U.S. is "not serious" about international obligations, including holding up the Iran nuclear deal. Asked in an interview airing Sunday on CBS News' "Face the Nation" if he would be able to work with the new secretary if Pompeo is confirmed, Zarif said he would have to "wait and see."


Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said in an interview broadcast Sunday that Tehran demands "respect" from President Trump.

SYRIA & IRAN


Iranian President Hassan Rouhani expressed in a letter to Syrian President Bashar Assad on Saturday his country's willingness to aid in the post-civil war reconstruction of Syria, Iran's Tasnim news agency reported. 

SANCTIONS


Oil market participants and analysts will be intently watching the Trump Administration over the next month. May 12 is the deadline for the U.S. President to decide to waive sanctions on Iran as part of the nuclear deal that global powers reached with Iran in 2015, allowing Tehran to resume oil exports and regain part of its market share. The re-imposition of sanctions on Iran's oil is not 100-percent certain, although the probability is high, various analysts say. The potential loss of Iran's oil exports varies from zero to 1 million bpd, according to investment banks and analysts.

ECONOMIC NEWS


Oil dropped after President Donald Trump tweeted a bearish statement that attacked OPEC for inflating prices. But his very own tweets may have had something to do with the fact that prices are the highest since late 2014. "Actually, Trump is at it again," said Matt Badiali, Banyan Hill senior research analyst. "The prices we're seeing right now are a combination of trouble in the Middle East with Syria and a looming Iran conflict and Trump's tweets are fueling the drive up in oil prices."

ISRAEL & IRAN


Iran and Israel traded blame on Sunday for an unprecedented, weeks-long surge in hostilities between their forces over Syria but played down prospects of a spillover into war.


As Israel celebrated the 70th anniversary of its independence this week, its leaders were voicing concern that the United States - which has always been its most important ally - was doing too little about what they view as a growing threat from Iran.


[Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said:] "We hear the threats from Iran, and the IDF and security forces are prepared for every possible Iranian move. We will fight whoever tries to harm us. We will not shy away from action against those who threaten our security. They will pay a heavy price."


Sen. Cory Gardner, R-Colo., told the Washington Examiner editorial board he believes the conflict in Syria has potential to spill over into other parts of the Middle East, taking shape as an open military conflict that involves Israel and Iran.

HUMAN RIGHTS


Iran's Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif says Tehran is open to prisoner swap negotiations with the US if the Trump administration shows a "change of attitude."


Mass protests returned to Iran on Friday in the southwest city of Kazeroon, with social media videos showing hundreds demonstrating during the weekly prayers and on the streets. Videos that emerged early on Friday showed some of largest public gatherings since the protests started last December.


The office of Hassan Rouhani today announced that the Iranian president has suspended his official account in Telegram, Iranian media reported. Rouhani's decision came after Supreme Leader Ali Khameni's office said yesterday that the Iranian leader would no longer use Telegram to "safeguard" Iran's national security and "remove the monopoly of Telegram messenger". Several government agencies and politicians also followed suit, urging their followers to use domestic messaging apps instead of Telegram and all other foreign apps. State-run and semiofficial media outlets also shut down their Telegram accounts today, indicating that the Iranian government is preparing to close down Telegram for the general public in the near future as well.


Iranian Kurds say police have stepped up their intimidation of striking shop workers engaging in a sixth day of protests against government restrictions on border trade in Iran's impoverished northwest.

IRANIAN INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS


Iran's central bank has banned the country's banks from dealing in cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, over money-laundering concerns, the state news agency IRNA reported on Sunday as the country tries to halt a currency crisis.


Every day, hundreds head to Tehran's bustling Ferdowsi street to buy foreign currency, only to find that many exchange offices have shut up shop, have turned off their currency-rate displays, or have signs up reading, "We don't have U.S. dollars to sell." A nationwide dollar-buying panic is in full swing, spurred by the plunging value of the Iranian rial, a sluggish economy, and fears that the United States will reimpose crippling sanctions on the Islamic republic.

NORTH KOREA & IRAN


A U.S. push to change the Iran nuclear deal was sending a "very dangerous message" that countries should never negotiate with Washington, Iran's foreign minister warned as U.S. and North Korean leaders prepare to meet for denuclearization talks.

FOREIGN AFFAIRS


Diplomats from the world's seven leading democracies met Sunday in Toronto to discuss ways to counter Russia in Syria and Ukraine, and Iran in the Middle East.






Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email press@uani.com.

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.

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