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TOP STORIES
Norman Roule, who served 34 years in the CIA and retired
last year as the national intelligence manager for Iran, said the
lack of a tougher European response, especially in the wake of Iran's
support of terrorism on the continent, has likely sent a message to
Tehran: "You can get away with pretty much anything."
Weeks before it is to reimpose another round of
punishing sanctions on Iran, the Trump administration warned the
world's banks on Thursday that Tehran might try to use duplicitous
means to soften the sanctions' bite and continue to fund terrorism.
With Iran bracing for tougher US sanctions, resentment
is growing against the well-connected who flaunt their wealth.
UANI IN THE NEWS
I always thought the Iran nuclear deal was a bad deal.
We gave up most of the economic sanctions on Iran for very little in
return, and now the President says that's not good enough. So we're
squeezing them economically, that's the one way short of military
action to bring them to the table to renegotiate a better agreement.
SANCTIONS, BUSINESS RISKS, & OTHER ECONOMIC
NEWS
After months of a drastic and ongoing depreciation, the
Iranian rial started recouping losses last week, mostly on the back
of government intervention. The Central Bank of Iran (CBI) has since
been largely successful in maintaining the value of the national
currency, which has taken a beating due to structural problems in the
economy and psychological factors relating to the US withdrawal from
the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
With many of its buyers walking away, Iran is gearing up
to offer 1 million barrels of oil on its dormant domestic exchange --
a venue it last used four years ago with limited success to get
around US sanctions that are again threatening its exports.
India has not yet worked out a payment mechanism for
continued purchase of Iranian oil, a finance ministry official told
CNBC TV18 news channel.
Saudi Arabia is set to deliver extra 4 million barrels
of its oil to India in November, Reuters reported on Wednesday,
citing several sources familiar with the plans, in what could be a
Saudi move to replace the loss of Iranian barrels due to the U.S.
sanctions on Tehran returning early next month.
India's oil imports from Iran edged up in September from
the previous month as refiners pushed back loading of some August
cargoes due to a delay in obtaining government approval to use
Iranian ships and insurance, data obtained from sources showed.
There is cheating going on now, and the sanctions have
not even started. Already, the volume and destinations of the Iranian
oil trade are being concealed.
India, a country the Trump administration has called
"a key security and economic partner," will soon test U.S.
resolve on Iran. Two Indian firms are reportedly seeking to purchase
Iranian oil in November. Should the imports go through, they would
contravene the stated U.S. aim of bringing Iran's petroleum exports
"as close to zero as possible" by Nov. 4.
TERRORISM & EXTREMISM
Nearly three weeks have passed since a deadly terrorist
attack targeted a military parade in Iran's southwestern city of
Ahvaz. Some say this attack was the result of negligence on the part
of the military and security forces, with resulting calls for these
organizations to be held accountable.
IRANIAN INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS
An increase in crude oil production in September by OPEC
and its ally Russia more than made up for declining Iranian output,
the oil-cartel said Thursday, as it vowed to keep filling the gap
created by impending U.S. sanctions on the Islamic Republic.
On October 7, 2018, Mahmoud Vaezi, Chief of Staff for
President of Iran Hassan Rouhani, responded to reports publicized in
Iran over the past few days that one of the senior officials in the
President's Office traveled to Switzerland, where he requested
political asylum. According to Vaezi, the official traveled to
Switzerland "for a private consular visit without his
family" and has not returned since.
RUSSIA, SYRIA, ISRAEL, HEZBOLLAH, LEBANON & IRAN
Lebanon Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri said earlier on
Wednesday that some saw "a positive, promising atmosphere"
in talks about forming a new government and his office was engaged in
contacts on the issue... [T]here have been signs of a break in the
deadlock, which has existed since May this year, when Lebanon held
parliamentary elections. One of the stumbling blocks in the talks was
expected to be the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL), charged with
investigating the 2005 murder of former prime minister Rafik Hariri.
The STL is expected to issue its final verdict before year's end.
Lebanon's Hezbollah group should get the Health Ministry
in the new government, a senior Hezbollah figure said on Wednesday, a
more important state agency than any it has controlled in recent
times as it provides services to millions of people.
Hezbollah's demands to take over the Health Ministry in
the upcoming Cabinet could spark several negative repercussions
against U.S. aid to Lebanon, Washington analysts believe.
GULF STATES, YEMEN, & IRAN
Given that Saudi Arabia is Iran's main regional rival,
Iranian censors have allowed the Iranian media to extensively cover
the disappearance and possible murder of The Washington Post
columnist and Saudi Arabian journalist Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi
consulate in Turkey.
IRAQ & IRAN
Since the Iranian regime seized power in 1979, its goal
has been for Iran to become a regional power and to restore the Shias
as the rulers of the Muslim world. A cornerstone of its strategy is
to build and control a land corridor stretching from Iran to the
Mediterranean Sea. Will Iran succeed in completing its land corridor?
By analyzing the current situation in Iraq, there are identifiable
developments which thwart Iran's plan to complete and maintain
control of the corridor.
Head of Supreme Commission of Agricultural Societies in
Iraq Haider al-Abadi denied the access of large quantities of water
from Iran to Iraq for nearly three years now.
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