UANI Resource: Perspectives on Lebanon and Hezbollah

Perspectives: Lebanon and Hezbollah  October 12, 2018 Perspectives: Lebanon and Hezbollah is a UANI weekly resource highlighting developments in Lebanon and the activities of the terrorist group Hezbollah.   Cabinet Formation Contradictory Reports in Lebanese Media on Cabinet Formation Lebanese media reported several contradictory stories on the possibility of an imminent cabinet formation. Al-Joumhouria claimed that President Michel Aoun had expressed flexibility on certain demands by the Lebanese Forces (LF) party, including giving them the Deputy Prime Minister position (without portfolio, and counting that as a "Sovereignty Ministry"), in addition to 3 other Ministries. A further report in Al-Joumhouria stated that LF had rejected an offer of the Education, Culture, and Social Affairs Ministries, while another report stated that LF was now in "serious negotiations" over cabinet positions. The report also indicated that the impasse between Walid Joumblatt's Hariri-aligned Progressive Socialist Party (PSP) and Talal Arslan's Hezbollah-aligned Lebanese Democratic party over the third Druze-earmarked cabinet position would be resolved by nominating a compromise Druze figure to head that Ministry. Despite this positive development, Al-Joumhouria also reported that the PSP's two portfolios were still in the negotiation phase. The report stated PSP was offered the Labor and Environment Ministries, but Joumblatt's party is insisting on receiving Education and Agriculture instead. Annahar reports Prime Minister Saad Hariri also sounded optimistic, saying the government would be formed upon Aoun's return from his visit to Yerevan, Armenia, doubling down on his previously mentioned timeline of forming a cabinet within 10 days.  Future Movement: Hariri Committed to Forming National Coalition Government Prime Minister Saad Hariri's Future Movement told Annahar that the premier has committed to forming a national unity coalition government, and would not go back on that commitment. However, Al-Joumhouria also reported reported that Hariri was now "disgusted" with the government formation process, particularly after caretaker Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil his optimistic estimation that a cabinet would be formed within 10-15 days, with one analyst opining in Annahar that Bassil's comments perhaps set the government formation process back to "square one." Hariri's own Future Movement also accused Bassil of "torpedoing" a solution to the formation of a new cabinet. Additionally, Hezbollah - which has remained on the sidelines of the cabinet formation process - inveighed recently by blaming Saudi Arabia for the delay. Mohammad Raad, the head of the group's Loyalty to the Resistance Bloc, said a "foreign veto" from the same country which "previously detained our Prime Minister" was currently holding up the government's formation and undermining Lebanese sovereignty, Lebanon's National News Agency reported. Hezbollah: We Will Receive the Health Ministry, Period. Sources close to Hezbollah's decision-makers told Al-Joumhouria that the party is certain it will receive the Health Ministry in Prime Minister Saad Hariri's future cabinet. "The Health portfolio will go to Hezbollah. Period. This matter has been decided long ago, and is now behind us, and anyone who thinks this can still be discussed is wasting their time." Annahar carried a similar report. These Hezbollah sources were responding to comments made last week by Hariri during an MTV Lebanon interview, saying he had yet to decide on granting Hezbollah the Health Ministry, due to the danger of international - particularly an American - boycott of the Ministry if it fell under the group's control. General Politics France Concerned With Three Main Problems in Lebanon: The Economy, The Government, and Refugees French diplomatic sources told Al-Joumhouria that France has three main concerns when it comes to Lebanon: the delay in forming a government, Lebanon's economy, and the repatriation of Syrian refugees. The diplomats expressed their fear that the delay in forming a government would negatively impact the outcome of the CEDRE conference, during which France and several other countries are expected to provide billions in loans to bolster Lebanon's flagging economy. They also said Paris was concerned with Lebanon's inability to find a solution to its electricity crisis, which they called "one of the main drains on [Lebanon's] treasury]" and offered their government's help in finding a solution. As an aside, they also said France would continue working with any Ministry given to Hezbollah in a future Lebanese government. Repatriation of Syrian Refugees in Lebanon May Soon Stall Al-Joumhouria reported that Lebanon's political crises - including the inability to form a new government - was negatively impacting the return of Syrian refugees in Lebanon to their home country. The report indicated that repatriation efforts have slowed to a trickle and may soon stall, creating a prolonged Syrian refugee crisis for Lebanon that would only be solved once an international agreement on the matter is reached and implemented. Hezbollah Transnationally Czech Intelligence Dismantle Hezbollah Cyber Espionage Network Radio Praha reported that the Czech Security Intelligence Service, in cooperation with foreign partners, succeeded in identifying, tracking, and disabling servers both in the Czech Republic and globally which Hezbollah was using to conduct cyber espionage. Former Egyptian Interior Minister: Hezbollah Used Tunnels to Enter Egypt in 2011 Former Egyptian Interior Minister Habib al-Adili told El-Balad TV that Hezbollah and extremist Palestinian organizations used tunnels between the Gaza Strip and the Sinai Peninsula to enter Egypt in 2011. Lebanese Security Issues American Military Delegation to Visit Beirut Al-Joumhouria reported that a U.S. military delegation will be visiting Beirut to inspect arms and military equipment previously supplied to the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF). The report failed to indicate whether this was a routine inspection of the LAF's U.S.-supplied stocks, or whether it arose out of a specific concern that U.S.-supplied equipment was being transferred to Hezbollah or had gone missing. Financial News Lebanese Banks Ready to Comply With Second Round of U.S. Sanctions on Iran Samir Hammoud, the head of Lebanon's Banking Oversight Committee, told Annahar that Beirut was ready to comply with the new round of sanctions that would be imposed by the U.S. against Iran on November 4. Hammoud said, "complying with the American sanctions law against Iran is definitive, and there's no room to delay its strict implementation. Our banks have no other choice," because "70% of our deposits are in dollars, and our dealings with foreign banks occur through Correspondent Banks (which are located in the U.S. or are American), and must comply with U.S. laws [themselves]. Because of this, Lebanese banks must comply with U.S. decisions." This would include closure of any accounts associated with individuals sanctioned by U.S. Treasury Department in the future. Hammoud added that "Hezbollah knows of this and understands it."  United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.