Sunday, June 20, 2010

#1020 Pipes weblogs: Strike Iran? Hafiz al-Asad and Me


































Daniel

Pipes

June 20, 2010


Please follow Daniel Pipes and the Middle East Forum on their Facebook and Twitter pages.

Please take a moment to visit and log in at the subscriber area, and submit your city & country location. We will use this information in future to invite you to any events that we organize in your area.

A Military Strike on Iran's Nuclear Infrastructure?


by Daniel Pipes
June 12, 2010

updated Jun 19, 2010


http://www.danielpipes.org/blog/2010/06/a-military-strike-on-irans-nuclear-infrastructure












Send Comment RSSShare: Facebook Twitter Google Buzz Digg


Whether or not Iran's nuclear buildup will be stopped is the most urgent topic in the Middle East these days. I will occasionally note important developments on that issue here.


"Saudi Arabia gives Israel clear skies to attack Iranian nuclear sites": In a sensational report, Hugh Tomlinson writes in the Times (London) that



Riyadh has agreed to allow Israel to use a narrow corridor of its airspace in the north of the country to shorten the distance for a bombing run on Iran. To ensure the Israeli bombers pass unmolested, Riyadh has carried out tests to make certain its own jets are not scrambled and missile defence systems not activated. Once the Israelis are through, the kingdom's air defences will return to full alert.



Tomlinson quotes a U.S. defense source in the area: "The Saudis have given their permission for the Israelis to pass over and they will look the other way. They have already done tests to make sure their own jets aren't scrambled and no one gets shot down. This has all been done with the agreement of the State Department."


He explains the logic behind this decision:



Sources in Saudi Arabia say it is common knowledge within defence circles in the kingdom that an arrangement is in place if Israel decides to launch the raid. Despite the tension between the two governments, they share a mutual loathing of the regime in Tehran and a common fear of Iran's nuclear ambitions. "We all know this. We will let them [the Israelis] through and see nothing," said one.



Comment: "Interesting if true" is my response. For reasons outlined in "Some Common Sense in Egypt and Saudi Arabia," I am skeptical that the Saudi leadership will allow Israeli overflights. Hope I am wrong. (June 12, 2010)


Surprising support for a military strike: The Pew Global Attitudes survey asked in 22 countries "Which is more important: Preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons, even if it means taking military action, OR avoiding a military conflict, even if they may develop nuclear weapons?" The results:



There are many surprises here:




  • Pakistanis, Argentinians, Turks, and Russians the least ready to use military force. (Note that 3 our of 4 of them are neighbors of Iran.)




  • Chinese and Japanese also shy from use of military force.




  • Egyptians, Jordanians, and Kenyans have opinions analogous to those of Americans




  • Nigerians are the most ready to use military force.




(June 17, 2010)


Related Topics: Iran, Public opinion polls, US policy




Hafiz al-Asad and Me


by Daniel Pipes
June 10, 2010

updated Jun 11, 2010


http://www.danielpipes.org/blog/2010/06/hafiz-al-asad-and-me












Send Comment RSSShare: Facebook Twitter Google Buzz Digg


Hafiz al-Asad (also spelled Hafez al-Assad) died ten years ago today, prompting some personal reflections:


I worked the Syria topic for 15 years, 1985-2000, writing one major academic study, two monographs, and many journal articles, newspaper articles, and book reviews – in all, about 100 publications. Because of my hostility to the regime, however, other than two visits to the country as a student in 1972 and 1973, I was not allowed to return, even when such august institutions as Reader's Digest and the U.S. government sponsored my travel.



The death of Hafiz al-Asad then brought my Syria specialty to an abrupt end. This monstrous but fascinating leader had intrigued me, especially his quasi-surreptitious pan-Syrian ideology, his double-game playing, and his ability to make Syria more important than it should have been. Just over a year later, the enormity of 9/11 further wrenched me away from matters Syrian.










A poster of Hafiz next to the actual Bashshar al-Asad.



In retrospect, I note that those 15 years of study focused more on the figure of Hafiz al-Asad than on the country of Syria. And so, with Asad's passing, my interest waned. His son and successor, Bashshar (also spelled Bashar), inherited a well-functioning tyranny that he has maintained reasonably well. But Bashshar al-Asad could sustain neither the horrifyingly repressive internal apparatus (e.g., some 20,000 killed in Hama in 1982) nor the wildly ambitious foreign policy that put Damascus at the center of most Middle Eastern issues (pan-Syrianism is defunct). Syria has become just another boring dictatorship. (June 10, 2010)


Related Topics: Daniel Pipes autobiographical, Syria This text may be reposted or forwarded so long as it is presented as an integral whole with complete information provided about its author, date, place of publication, and original URL.






To subscribe to this list, go to http://www.danielpipes.org/list_subscribe.php

(Daniel Pipes sends out a mailing of his writings 1-2 times a week.)


Sign up for related (but non-duplicating) e-mail services:

Middle East Forum (media alerts, event reports, MEQ articles)

Campus Watch (research, news items, press releases)

at http://www.danielpipes.org/list_subscribe.php



DanielPipes.org




No comments:

Post a Comment