Daniel Pipes

April 9, 2011

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Dear Reader:

Please see my recent appearance on FoxNews.com Live, discussing "Florida Pastor Sparks Outrage."

Yours sincerely,

Daniel Pipes

"Syria After Asad"

by Daniel Pipes March 30, 2011

http://www.danielpipes.org/blog/2011/03/syria-after-asad

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That up-to-the-moment title comes from an article I wrote almost a quarter century ago, in February 1987, looking at the potential sectarian ramifications of Hafez al-Assad's demise. Although reputedly sickly at the time, the dictator eeked out another thirteen years and managed to pass the rule on to his son Bashar.

The odd thing is, so little fundamental changed during the past quarter-century, my analysis from then, with its heavy emphasis on the Sunni-Alawi sectarian divide, retains its value today at a moment of unprecedented popular rebellion against the Assad dynasty. An excerpt from the article's conclusion:

A placard of the Assad dynasty, with Bashar to the left and Hafez to the right.
Sunnis have a long list of grievances against 'Alawi rule. They dislike the domination of power by a people considered to be socially and religiously inferior. They resent the socialism which reduces their wealth, the indignities against Islam, the attacks on the PLO, and what they perceive to be cooperation with Maronites and Zionists. They live with the memory of Hama and other massacres.

This hostility weighs heavily on the leadership; indeed, bedrock Sunni opposition remains the Asad regime's greatest and most abiding problem. As a small and divided minority, the 'Alawis know they cannot rule indefinitely against the wishes of almost 70 per cent of the population [that is Sunni Muslim]. Further, the traditional place of 'Alawis in Syrian society and the manner of their ascent this century both make 'Alawi power likely to be transient. That Sunni Muslims see 'Alawi rule as an aberration probably bears on the future of political power in Syria as much as anything else.

In the likely event that the ruling elite fights among itself … , 'Alawi weakness could provide the needed opening for Sunnis to reassert their power. The resentful majority population will fully exploit any faltering by the 'Alawis. The effects will be severe; as one analyst has observed, "in the long run, it is highly dangerous for the 'Alawis. If they lose their control, there will be a bloodbath.

For deeper background on the Alawis, see my 1989 article, "The Alawi Capture of Power in Syria." (March 30, 2011)

Related Topics: Syria

Democratic Iraq?

by Daniel Pipes March 4, 2011 updated Mar 6, 2011

http://www.danielpipes.org/blog/2011/03/democratic-iraq

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While Middle Easterners from Morocco to Iran are agitating for more say in the governance of their countries, guess where the leadership is acquiring more power? Michael S. Schmidt and Jack Healy report for the New York Times that "Maliki's Broadened Powers Seen as a Threat in Iraq." Some details on the process by which "Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki is expanding his power, undermining the fragile democracy struggling to take hold" in Iraq:

Iraqi prime minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki.
A ruling in January by Iraq's highest court — sought by Mr. Maliki — gave him control of once independent agencies responsible for running the country's central bank, conducting elections and investigating corruption. A month after that ruling, two leading human rights groups said that forces that reported directly to Mr. Maliki, in violation of the country's Constitution, were running secret jails where detainees had been tortured. And in July, Iraq's high court ruled that members of Parliament no longer had the power to propose legislation. Instead, all new laws would have to be proposed by Mr. Maliki's cabinet or the president and then passed to the Parliament for a vote. Political experts said they knew of no other parliamentary democracy that had such restrictions.

Comment: These developments confirm my expectation that the vast American-led effort to create a "free and prosperous" Iraq will end in failure. (March 4, 2011)

Related Topics: Iraq

Obama and Qaddafi

by Daniel Pipes March 4, 2011

http://www.danielpipes.org/blog/2011/03/obama-and-qaddafi

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At least Obama did not bow when they met before a dinner at the G8 summit in L'Aquila, Italy in July 2009. (March 4, 2011)

Nor did he kiss the Leader's hand, as Italy's Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi did in March 2010.

Related Topics: Libya, US policy This text may be reposted or forwarded so long as it is presented as an integral whole with complete information provided about its author, date, place of publication, and original URL.

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