| For continuing coverage follow us on Twitter and join our Facebook group.
Top Stories
Reuters: "An engineering conglomerate belonging to the Revolutionary Guards, Iran's elite military force, should further expand its role in the economy sector, Oil Minister Rostam Qasemi said on Sunday, days after leaving the company to join the government. Qasemi, who has already said Iran has no need for the foreign companies that have pulled out due to sanctions, told the official IRNA news agency that his former employer, Khatam al-Anbia, should be used to fill their place. 'This construction base (Khatam al-Anbia) should become the replacement for big foreign companies,' he said. Khatam al-Anbia already stepped into projects formerly under the control of foreign companies notably replacing the likes of Royal Dutch Shell and Total SA after they pulled out of the giant South Pars gas field in the Gulf under sanctions pressure. Through Khatam al-Anbia and other affiliates, the Guards have become increasingly involved in the civilian economy, well beyond the infrastructure reconstruction it was initially involved in after the war with Iraq in the 1980s. The Guards, Khatam al-Anbia and Qasemi himself are all under various sanctions imposed by countries, including the United States and the European Union, that accuse them of involvement in helping Iran develop nuclear technology that could be use for weapons, something Tehran denies it is seeking." http://t.uani.com/p3UIu6
WSJ: "More than 90 U.S. senators signed a letter to President Barack Obama pressing him to sanction Iran's central bank, with some threatening legislation to force the move, an outcome that would represent a stark escalation in tensions between the two countries. Such a measure, if effectively implemented, could potentially freeze Iran out of the global financial system and make it nearly impossible for Tehran to clear billions of dollars in oil sales every month, said current and former U.S. officials. Many American officials view the blacklisting of Bank Markazi as the 'nuclear option' in Washington's financial war against Tehran. Some Iranian leaders have said they would view such a move by the Obama administration as an act of war. The letter was co-sponsored by Sens. Mark Kirk (R., Ill.) and Charles Schumer (D., N.Y.) in a sign of the bipartisan support for tougher financial measures against Iran. The U.S. fears Iran is developing nuclear weapons, a charge Tehran denies. 'In our view, the United States should embark on a comprehensive strategy to pressure Iran's financial system by imposing sanctions on the Central Bank of Iran,' said the letter that was viewed by The Wall Street Journal and will be delivered to the White House on Tuesday. 'If our allies are willing to join, we believe this step can be even more effective.'" http://t.uani.com/nAdhdg
AP: "An Iranian lawmaker said the country's first nuclear power plant will not start up by late August as planned and blamed the delay on Russia, which is building the facility, local media reported Monday. The disclosure by Asgar Jalalian, a member of a special parliamentary committee on the Bushehr nuclear plant, reflects the continued the difficulties Iran has faced in moving forward with its controversial nuclear program. The 1,000 megawatt plant being built in the southern port city of Bushehr has experienced repeated delays that come on top of the unyielding pressure Tehran faces from the United States and its allies, who are convinced the program is aimed at developing nuclear weapons. Iran says its program is for peaceful uses like power generation. The plant is being built by Russia's Rosatom, and was to be finished by 1999, four years after construction of the $1 billion facility began." http://t.uani.com/qp0oS6
Nuclear Program & Sanctions
Bloomberg: "Iran said it received 1 billion euros ($1.4 billion) from India for oil supplies and didn't halt crude exports to Indian refineries over delayed payments. 'Indian refineries debt until last week stood at $4.8 billion, but we have now received about 1 billion euros of it,' National Iranian Oil Co. Managing Director Ahmad Qalebani was quoted as saying today by the state-run Fars news agency. 'So in August, exports to India continued as in previous months.' Iran is constrained by international sanctions over its nuclear program, and Indian refiners have said banks are unwilling to transfer payments for their purchases of the Persian nation's oil." http://t.uani.com/oRYTGV
Reuters: "Several shipping companies have launched a legal challenge against the European Union after the bloc imposed sanctions on them over their suspected involvement in Iran's nuclear programme and arms trafficking, a court application showed. In May the EU extended its sanctions adding more than 100 new entities to a list of companies and people affected, including those it said were owned or controlled by the Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines (IRISL), already targeted under previous measures. In a summary application filed last week with the General Court of the European Union in Luxembourg, 36 entities led by Hamburg based shipping firm Ocean Capital Administration sought an annulment of financial sanctions which, they said had led to an EU-wide freeze of their assets. 'The result is that they are unable to trade or carry out business at all within the EU, and are not able to obtain insurance or reinsurance for hull or machinery from any European company, and it is prohibited to load or unload their cargoes in EU ports,' the application said." http://t.uani.com/odFjEI
Reuters: "Iran will need some $40 billion this year to spur the development of oil and gas fields it shares with neighbouring countries, Oil Minister Rostam Qasemi said in his first interview since being appointed to the post, published on Saturday. Qasemi, a Revolutionary Guards commander, was given a vote of confidence in parliament on Wednesday, vowing to prioritise jointly owned fields, notably the giant South Pars gas reservoir in the Gulf where Qatar has leapt ahead of Iran in developing the valuable resource they share. 'In order to launch the announced development plans (on the joint fields) there is need for more than $40 billion in investment in the current (Iranian) year (ending late March 2012),' Qasemi said in an interview with Iran, a state-owned daily newspaper." http://t.uani.com/qf4qqT
Human Rights
CNN: "The attorney representing three American hikers accused of being spies in Iran said Sunday that he was still awaiting word about his clients' fate. Attorney Masoud Shafiei said he had not heard anything from court officials as of 6:30 p.m. Sunday, a week after a hearing that he hoped would result in a swift and lenient ruling. After last week's hearing, Shafiei said an Iranian court was scheduled to issue a verdict within a week -- an assessment reiterated by a U.S. State Department spokesman. On Saturday, state-run Press TV reported that 'Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi expresses hope that the trial of the three U.S. nationals detained on charges of espionage and illegal entry will result in their freedom.'" http://t.uani.com/mRSRZg
AFP: "Iranian police arrested 17 boys and girls over a water fight at a seaside park in the Islamic republic's south, a senior judicial official said on Sunday. 'Seventeen young boys and girls who were squirting water at each other were arrested on Friday in one of the beach parks' in the city of Bandar Abbas, Homozgan province's justice chief Ali Alia said, quoted by ISNA news agency. 'Five were immediately let go,' he said, adding the rest were released on bail on Sunday but could face sentences for publicly committing an 'act forbidden' (haram) by Islam as well as 'insulting police officers'. On July 29, several hundred youths took part in a large-scale water battle using guns and empty bottles at Ab-o-Atash (Water and Fire) park in central Tehran, after organising the event on Facebook and through text messages." http://t.uani.com/pjGnDg
CNN: "Dr. Kamiar Alaei and his brother, Dr. Arash Alaei, have been called pioneers for their community-based approach to HIV and AIDS in Iran. Since opening a hometown clinic in 1999, the men have been raising awareness about HIV, dispelling myths about the virus and treating people who are shunned because of it. They have also reached out to their neighbors in Afghanistan and Tajikistan and worked with medical universities in Europe and the United States. But in 2008, the Alaeis were arrested by the Iranian government. According to Kamiar, they were charged with 'communication with an enemy government' and for trying to 'overthrow the government.' Kamiar says the charges had no merit, but he and his brother were found guilty and thrown into Iran's notorious Evin prison. Kamiar served most of a three-year sentence and was released in October 2010. His brother is still behind bars. CNN's Asieh Namdar recently caught up with Kamiar to talk about his work, his prison sentence and his relentless campaign for his brother's freedom." http://t.uani.com/q8NcfW
Domestic Politics
WashPost: "Gold-flecked ice cream wasn't part of the picture that Shiite Muslim clerics painted during the Iranian Revolution, when they promised to lift the poor by distributing the country's vast oil income equally across society. But more than three decades later, record oil profits have brought in billions of dollars, and some people here are enjoying that decadent dessert. The trouble is, it's just a small group of wealthy Iranians. Despite the promises of the revolution, many here say the gap between rich and poor has never seemed wider. Iran's new wealthy class has succeeded in tapping the opportunities provided by a vast domestic market, sometimes aided by corruption and erratic government policies. It includes children of people with close connections to some of Iran's rulers, as well as families of factory owners and those who managed to get huge loans from state banks at low interest rates. The oil windfall - nearly $500 billion over the past five years - has also played a central role in establishing this small group that is visibly enjoying its profits. Both supporters and critics of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad say some of his economic policies designed to counter inequality are actually making things worse for many." http://t.uani.com/ovhxe4
Reuters: "Iran's parliament is to examine recent energy pipeline explosions to see to what extent sabotage or technical problems were to blame, a lawmaker said on Sunday, two days after an oil line blast which caused a jump in global crude prices. 'Since the start of the (Iranian) year, we have witnessed the emergence of incidents such as explosions and fires at domestic and export pipeline networks,' Emad Hosseini, spokesman of parliament's energy committee, told the ISNA news agency. 'Certainly these incidents have not been all unintentional.' The cause of Friday's explosion, in Iran's oil rich southwestern Khuzestan province, has still not been determined. Officials said the line had been repaired by Sunday." http://t.uani.com/r2X1Pc
Opinion & Analysis
Patrick Clawson in WINEP: "On August 2, Tehran distributed a sixth installment of cash payments to 73 million Iranians in lieu of subsidies on fuel, natural gas, electricity, and essential items such as bread. Having done the easy part of its subsidy reform -- sending out checks to compensate for price increases -- the regime must now do the hard part: raise the money to pay for those checks and find a way to help businesses badly hit by the higher prices. Tehran should be able to meet that challenge as long as its oil income remains high, but if oil prices drop or sanctions impede financial flows, it could face serious problems. In terms of actually distributing the checks to households, the regime has been effective. In recent years, it has supplemented the longstanding and chaotic identification system based on hand-issued birth-certificate booklets with a computerized national ID card, which is better able to control fraud. To be sure, a July 2011 paper by two International Monetary Fund (IMF) staffers and an Iranian official reported that two million of those receiving checks live abroad and should not have been eligible. The other side of the coin is getting money to the poor, many of whom do not have bank accounts. The regime seems to have been quite successful at getting this constituency 'banked,' as the phrase goes. Iran's banking system has deepened its reach in recent years, partly through the creation of numerous private banks and the conversion/consolidation of 1,200 credit unions into thirteen banking firms. Even more important, thousands of Postal Bank 'offices' (as distinct from full-service banks) have been established in rural areas with enough accounts to cover up to a quarter of the country's 22 million rural residents. To be sure, if the checks are going to 71 million Iranians as reported (discounting the 2 million recipients abroad), and if the official October 2010 population estimate of 74.7 million was correct, at least 3.7 million people are not getting paid. For instance, Iran's impoverished Afghan immigrants, who number well over a million, are not eligible. In general, though, the poor have gained much from the subsidy reform. Currently, the payments, having been raised twice, are 455,000 Iranian rials per person per month, equivalent to $41. Virginia Tech economist Djavad Salehi-Isfahani has estimated that poor Iranians -- those in the bottom 10 percent of the income distribution -- are receiving seven times more than the extra costs they pay due to the removal of subsidies. That means a net monthly gain of IR1.6 million for a four-person household, more than 35 percent of the minimum wage of IR4.3 million per month (including the various monthly allowances and a year-end bonus). Many rural and informal workers can only dream of getting the minimum wage through regular employment. Not surprisingly, then, the poor have not objected to this reform. Even for the top 10 percent of earners, the checks cover nearly all the additional costs from raising prices, according to Salehi-Isfahani's calculations. And that is assuming people actually pay their much higher natural gas, electricity, and water bills. In April, Deputy Oil Minister Javad Oji acknowledged that 30 percent of consumers had not yet paid their latest gas bills, and press reports suggest the figure could be higher... By devoting much of its oil and gas earnings to public cash payments, Tehran is locking itself into a situation where it has little margin for error if its hydrocarbon revenues decrease. If oil prices decline -- or, more important, if the United States and its allies can dissuade countries and companies from paying for Iranian oil (Washington has no objections if they receive said oil, only if they pay for it) -- then the Islamic Republic could face serious problems paying for the checks to which the Iranian people are rapidly becoming accustomed. In short, the regime had made itself more vulnerable to outside pressure -- a fact worth bearing in mind when considering what leverage the West can wield against Iran's nuclear program." http://t.uani.com/osrq4f
Louis Rene Beres & John T. Chain in JPost: "Nuclear deterrence is a game that even sane, rational governments may have to play, but there can be no assurance that enemies will always be rational. This presents a grave security problem, because the entire logic of nuclear deterrence rests squarely on the assumption that each state will always value its continued survival more highly than anything else. It follows that even a nuclear-weapons state able to destroy an aggressor after suffering an enemy first-strike attack could still lose the game. A nuclear Iran is pretty much a fait accompli. For Israel, soon to be deprived of any remaining cost effective preemption options, this means forging a strategy to coexist with a nuclear Iran. This essential strategy of nuclear deterrence will call for reduced ambiguity about its strategic forces; enhanced and partially disclosed nuclear targeting options; substantial and partially disclosed programs for active defenses; recognizable steps to ensure the survivability of its nuclear retaliatory forces; and, to bring all these elements together, a comprehensive strategic doctrine. In addition, because of the logical possibility of enemy irrationality, Israel's military planners must continue to identify suitable ways of ensuring that even a nuclear 'suicide state' can be deterred. Such a perilous threat is very small, but it is not negligible. And although the probability of having to face such an irrational enemy state is low, the probable harm of any single deterrence failure could be intolerably high. Israel needs to maintain and strengthen its plans for ballistic-missile defense (the Arrow system), and also for Iron Dome, designed to guard against shorter-range rocket attacks. Still, these systems, including Magic Wand, which is still in the development phase, will inevitably have 'leakage.' Their principal benefit, therefore, must ultimately lie in enhanced deterrence rather than in any added physical protection. For example, a newly-nuclear Iran, if still rational, would require steadily increasing numbers of offensive missiles to achieve a sufficiently destructive first-strike capability. Significantly, however, there could come a time when Iran will be able to deploy far more than a small number of nuclear-tipped missiles. Should that happen, Arrow, Iron Dome and, potentially, Magic Wand could cease their critical contribution to Israeli nuclear deterrence. What if the leaders of a newly-nuclear Iran do not meet the expectations of rational behavior? What if this leadership does not consistently value Iran's national survival more highly than any other preference?" http://t.uani.com/qnJbku
Jamsheed K. Choksy in The American Interest: "Last month, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy (IRGCN) chief Ali Fadavi declared, 'The frontline of the Islamic Republic is the sea. Our enemy, the United States, has a military capacity at sea and has secured hegemony by the means of its naval capacity. . . . It is necessary that the Iranian navy counters the enemy.' Defense Minister Ahmad Vahidi told the local press 'Iran plans to strengthen its naval forces to maintain security of the open seas... the message to regional countries is that there is no need for the presence of foreign forces.' Iran's naval force, which include the IRGCN in addition to the more conventional Islamic Republic of Iran Navy (IRIN), has been neither a major force in nor highly visible on the world's waterways. However these conditions are changing, as the Islamic Republic of Iran seeks to regain the maritime might that Persian empires enjoyed during antiquity and the Middle Ages. This effort also represents the revival of a program begun under the last Shah, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. The current quest to project power on the high seas has been endorsed by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei who claims that even in its early stages it 'has intimidated' other nations, referring no doubt to the United States and Israel in particular. Tehran's blue-water ventures are gaining attention not just in nearby Israel and the United States, but in the European Union too. However, Washington, London and Paris, although they feel stymied by foreign wars and debt, remain too confident in their militaries' capacities to handle an Iranian naval threat; the problem, they think, is still well over the horizon. They fail to recognize that Iranian leaders have proven adept at opening new fronts along which to challenge American and European global dominance and incrementally increase their country's capabilities and influence on a global stage. Up to now, the Iranian navy comprised a small fleet of speed boats, corvettes, frigates, destroyers, supply ships, and submarines. Its theater of action was restricted to the Persian Gulf and Sea of Oman by technological limitations. Yet even there Iran's government has proven detrimental to regional and world safety by aiding terrorists. The IRGCN and IRIN are suspected of having facilitated movement of al-Qaeda operatives across the Persian Gulf to and from Yemen, Somalia, Afghanistan and Pakistan for many years. More recently, as Tehran's global ambitions have expanded, so has the deployment of its navy. This deployment has gained considerable significance within Iran-even being encouraged in a khotba, or sermon, after Friday prayers at Tehran University." http://t.uani.com/ntrx07 |
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment