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NYT: "United Nations weapons inspectors have amassed a trove of new evidence that they say makes a 'credible' case that 'Iran has carried out activities relevant to the development of a nuclear device,' and that the project may still be under way. The long-awaited report, released by the International Atomic Energy Agency on Tuesday, represents the strongest judgment the agency has issued in its decade-long struggle to pierce the secrecy surrounding the Iranian program. The findings, drawn from evidence of far greater scope and depth than the agency has previously made public, have already rekindled a debate among the Western allies and Israel about whether increased diplomatic pressure, sanctions, sabotage or military action could stop Iran's program. Knowing that their findings would be compared with the flawed Iraq intelligence that preceded the 2003 invasion - and has complicated American moves on Iran - the inspectors devoted a section of the report to 'credibility of information.' The information was from more than 10 countries and from independent sources, they said; some was backed up by interviews with foreigners who had helped Iran. The report laid out the case that Iran had moved far beyond the blackboard to create computer models of nuclear explosions in 2008 and 2009 and conducted experiments on nuclear triggers. It said the simulations focused on how shock waves from conventional explosives could compress the spherical fuel at the core of a nuclear device, which starts the chain reaction that ends in nuclear explosion. The report also said Iran went beyond such theoretical studies to build a large containment vessel at its Parchin military base, starting in 2000, for testing the feasibility of such explosive compression. It called such tests 'strong indicators of possible weapon development.'" http://t.uani.com/tF8J4O
Reuters: "Iran has started moving nuclear material to an underground facility for the pursuit of sensitive atomic activities, a U.N. nuclear agency report showed, a development likely to add to Western suspicions Tehran is trying to build a weapon. The International Atomic Energy Agency document also said Iran had continued to stockpile low-enriched uranium (LEU) and one prominent U.S. think-tank said it had enough of the material for four nuclear weapons if it refines it further. The information that Iran last month moved a 'large cylinder' with LEU to the Fordow subterranean site was included in the U.N. body's most comprehensive report yet pointing to military aspects of Tehran's nuclear program... 'No unbiased observer can cling to the pretension that Iran's nuclear program is purely for peaceful purposes,' Mark Fitzpatrick, a director of the International Institute for Strategic Studies think tank, said."
NYT: "Even as Iran on Tuesday angrily dismissed a new United Nations report on its nuclear ambitions as an American fabrication and a pretext for military action, some analysts said the report's wealth of data could complicate efforts by Iran and its allies to defend the nuclear program as peaceful. In the past, Iranian diplomats have repeatedly challenged United Nations weapons inspectors to publish any evidence that Iran is seeking nuclear weapons. Now the inspectors have done that, in a landmark report that cites numerous documents from a variety of sources suggesting that Iran has tried to build warheads. The weight of evidence in the new report might even alter the calculus of Russia and China, who have for years been Iran's chief defenders against European and American claims about Iran's nuclear intentions, analysts said. But it is unlikely, at least for now, to alter their resistance to a military strike intended to disable Iran's uranium enrichment facilities." http://t.uani.com/rCIMsK
Nuclear Program & Sanctions BBC: "Iran's president says his country will not budge 'one iota' from its nuclear programme, despite new allegations it may be trying to develop nuclear weapons. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said a new report by the UN's nuclear watchdog was based on 'empty claims' provided by the US... 'We will not budge an iota from the path we are committed to,' Mr Ahmadinejad said in a televised speech. 'Why do you damage the [UN] agency's dignity because of America's invalid claims?' Addressing the US he added: 'We will not build two bombs in the face of your 20,000. We will develop something that you cannot respond to, which is ethics, humanity, solidarity and justice. You should know that no enemy of the Iranian people has ever tasted victory.'" http://t.uani.com/ucKfJ5
Reuters: "The United States may impose more sanctions on Iran, possibly on commercial banks or front companies, but is unlikely to take further steps against its oil and gas industry or go after the central bank for now, a U.S. official said on Tuesday... 'I think you will see bilateral sanctions increasing,' the U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Reuters. But because of Russian and Chinese opposition, chances are slim for another U.N. Security Council resolution sanctioning Iran for its nuclear program, the official said. As a result, officials said the main focus appeared to be better implementation of existing sanctions and the sounding out of 'like-minded' countries to try to persuade them to impose additional sanctions on Iran. 'From our side, we are really looking to close loopholes wherever they may exist,' the U.S. official said, adding U.S. sanctions are so comprehensive that 'there is not a whole lot out there other than the oil and gas market -- and you know how sensitive that is. I don't think we are there yet.' The United States has long barred U.S. companies from trading with or investing in Iran, including its oil and gas sector. But it also has laws permitting sanctions on non-U.S. companies that develop Iran's energy sector." http://t.uani.com/uxTztT
Bloomberg: "U.S. and European countries will press for tighter sanctions against Iran after United Nations atomic inspectors revealed 'credible' information that the country conducted nuclear-bomb work as recently as last year. The International Atomic Energy Agency's report showed that 'Iran has sought, and most likely still seeks, to equip itself with atomic weapons, under cover of a program that it pretends is civil and peaceful,' French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe said today in a statement. France and its allies are ready to impose 'unprecedented sanctions.'" http://t.uani.com/t8moqO
AP: "For Iranian envoys at an Asian affairs summit this week in Russia, it was the ultimate dream team: The Russian prime minister and China's premier standing shoulder to shoulder and promising to keep Western influence at bay. Iran's leaders are now counting on the country's two most powerful friends to remain by their side after the release of a U.N. report suggesting that Tehran could be on the brink of having the capability to develop an atomic weapon. Russia and China - both permanent members of the U.N. Security Council - are once again in the position of veto-carrying gatekeepers for any Western bids to tighten sanctions on Iran. They also hold important voices of dissent against warnings of military options by Israel and others, even as the White House insists that diplomacy is still the preferred path." http://t.uani.com/tWMBvp Opinion & Analysis
Bret Stephens in WSJ: "The International Atomic Energy Agency is expected to unveil a report Wednesday on what it knows about Iran's efforts to develop nuclear weapons, and the early word is that it contains a few bombshells. But let's not overstate its significance. There's no scarcity of reliable information about Iran's nuclear programs, licit and illicit. The only question is whether the report will do much to end the current scarcity of Western will to do something meaningful to check them. Start with what we already know about Iran's nuclear programs. In September, the IAEA came out with its umpteenth report on Iran. It noted that Iran had enriched 4.5 tons of low-enriched uranium-sufficient, with further enrichment, for three or four bombs-and that a third of the uranium had been enriched in the last year alone. So much for the miracle of digital deliverance that was supposed to be the Stuxnet computer virus. It noted that Iran had begun to deploy more advanced centrifuges, capable of enriching uranium at a significantly faster rate than the ones that it had acquired from Pakistani scientist A.Q. Khan. So much for the success of sanctions in shutting down Iran's underground network of nuclear-parts suppliers. It noted that Iran had enriched 70.8 kilos of uranium to a 20% level, a significant step toward bomb-grade material, and that it was planning to triple production at its heavily fortified facility near the city of Qom. So much for the idea that Iran faces a critical shortage of 20% enriched uranium, or that a diplomatic overture by the West to supply it could check Tehran's nuclear efforts. Finally, the report made reference to the agency's previous disclosures about the 'possible military dimensions' of Iran's nuclear program, including 'producing uranium metal . . . into components relevant to a nuclear device' and 'missile re-entry vehicle redesign activities for a new payload assessed as being nuclear in nature.' So much for the enabling fiction that was the 2007 National Intelligence Estimate, which judged 'with high confidence' that Iran 'halted its nuclear weapons program' in the fall of 2003. The 2007 NIE now joins a September 1962 NIE-which claimed, just a month before the Cuban Missile Crisis, that the Soviets were unlikely to station missiles on the island-in the intelligence community's long hall of infamy. But Wednesday's IAEA report should at least put to rest the intel debate about Iran's drive to build a bomb. What remains is the policy debate. Such a debate needs to be clear about four things." http://t.uani.com/tY1CkO
Ilan Berman in NYT: "Today, the International Atomic Energy Agency released a report on Iran's nuclear program. It provides the most convincing evidence to date that Iran is close to producing a nuclear weapon. But as Iran nears the nuclear threshold, the best way to stop it may be by punishing the Chinese companies that supply Tehran and enable its nuclear progress. The Obama administration seems to understand this. The late September visit to China by David S. Cohen, the Treasury Department's new under secretary for terrorism and financial intelligence, included the most explicit warning yet to Beijing that its banks and financial institutions could face sanctions if they continued to do business with Iranian entities. The move is significant. More than a year ago, President Obama signed into law a series of sweeping sanctions cumulatively aimed at throttling Iran's energy sector. Yet so far, China has mostly gotten a pass on its engagement with Iran. Those ties are broad - and getting broader. In recent years, China's economic dynamism has brought with it a voracious appetite for energy. This has made energy-rich Iran a natural strategic partner. In 2009, Iran ranked as China's second largest oil provider, accounting for some 15 percent of Beijing's annual imports. In exchange, China has aided and abetted Iran's quest for nuclear capacity. Diplomatically, it has done so by complicating oversight of Iran's nuclear program, and by resisting the application of serious sanctions against Tehran. More directly (and dangerously), it has turned a blind eye to Iranian acquisitions of sensitive technology and materiel for its nuclear program from Chinese sources. Over time, Chinese leaders have become convinced that Washington prioritizes bilateral trade with Beijing over security concerns about Iran, and that it therefore won't enact serious penalties for China's dealings with Iran. This has allowed Chinese officials to pay lip service to international efforts to rein in Iran's nuclear program while quietly playing a key role in nurturing Tehran's nuclear quest. The result is clear: when it comes to Iran, China today isn't part of the solution; it's part of the problem... Washington, worried about potentially destabilizing economic effects, has historically shied away from putting pressure on Beijing over its ties to Iran. But if the Obama administration is serious about halting Iran's nuclear program, it must do so by sanctioning companies like the China National Offshore Oil Corporation, or Cnooc, which has been developing Iran's mammoth North Pars natural gas field since 2006, and PetroChina (which supervises the import of some three million tons of liquefied natural gas annually from Iran). Both are publicly traded on the New York Stock Exchange and therefore subject to penalties under existing law." http://t.uani.com/uWNatK
Sarah Morgan & Andrew Apostolou in Foreign Affairs: "Washington will only neutralize Iran by exploiting the regime's main vulnerability: its false claim to legitimacy. The ayatollahs' hold on power is inherently unstable because they have no popular mandate. Since staging a rigged election in 2009 to keep Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in power, they have relied on repression and brutality to silence opposition, jailing journalists, torturing detainees, and executing critics (both real and imagined). By highlighting these crimes on the world stage and actively supporting Iran's dissidents, the United States can place a new, more effective kind of pressure on Tehran and support the movement for democratic change from within. Focusing on human rights violations will allow the United States to expose the hypocrisy of the regime and remind Iran of its domestic troubles as it tries to expand its power and influence. The current state of affairs in Iran began with the Green Movement uprising in 2009. As hundreds of thousands flowed into the streets to protest the sham victory of Ahmadinejad in the nation's presidential election, security forces cracked down, worsening the country's already severe level of oppression. The Iranian authorities admit to having arrested more than 4,500 protesters during the crackdown. Opposition groups report that there are at least 1,000 political prisoners still in jail, reflecting Iran's long-practiced tactics of attempting to break dissidents with prolonged imprisonment and isolation and by harassing their families.Iran has the highest per-capita execution rate in the world, with 252 confirmed executions in 2010 and reports of 300 more (out of a population of over 70 million). In absolute numbers, that is second only to China. And there has been no reprieve in 2011. Official Iranian media and human rights groups report 450 executions this year, many conducted in secret, unannounced to the lawyers and relatives of the accused. There have been 33 public executions so far this year; three men have been hanged for being homosexuals, a capital crime in Iran. In September alone, the state executed more than 100 of its citizens... U.S. policymakers are increasingly catching on. In June, the State Department sanctioned the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps for its human rights violations against Iranian citizens. Critics, however, insist that the United States will harm the Iranian opposition by assisting it, ruining its credibility. Others believe that a human rights-based initiative will ultimately fail to change Iran's behavior and thus point to negotiations as the only solution. Yet the events of the past two years suggest such critiques are outdated. The Green Movement activists who raised banners declaring, 'Obama, Obama, either you're with them or you're with us!' demonstrated that they want U.S. support. Moreover, the Obama administration abandoned its policy of engagement with the Iranian regime after two years of silence from the ayatollahs. The United States, then, should adopt new methods of neutralizing Iran. It can begin focusing on human rights by conditioning any future negotiations on Iran's demonstrated adherence to international human rights standards. It can place travel bans not only on senior Iranian officials but also on their family members (a tactic used against lieutenants of former Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic in the 1990s). The Obama administration can mention Iranian dissidents by name in speeches and press conferences. Above all, it can place sanctions directly on Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei." http://t.uani.com/sHDieA |
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