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| Join Daniel Pipes on a Fact Finding Expedition to Israel (For full details click here) Please take a moment to visit and log in at the subscriber area, and submit your city & country location. We will use this information in future to invite you to any events that we organize in your area. Panetta Predicts an Israeli Strike on Iranby Daniel Pipes http://www.danielpipes.org/blog/2012/02/panetta-predicts-an-israeli-strike-on-iran
It's not every day that someone like the U.S. secretary of defense forecasts an ally's move but this just happened when Leon Panetta said that he believes, in the paraphrase of a Washington Post reporter, that "there is a strong likelihood that Israel will strike Iran in April, May or June." Thoughts on this unusual statement: It's a paraphrase: For delicate statements, top officials prefer indirection and written words. It offers wiggle room and reduces tensions. Asked whether he disputed the Post report, Panetta inscrutably stated: "No, I'm just not commenting. What I think and what I view, I consider that to be an area that belongs to me and nobody else." (Contrast this episode with Barack Obama talking about drones in front of the cameras, an indiscretion that won him trouble, including a lawsuit from the ACLU.) It might be disinformation: In the mirror world of nuclear diplomacy, we on the outside have almost no way of discerning wheat from chaff. Panetta could be sending a signal to Tehran as opposed to telling the truth. The same applies to other news, be it assassinations of Iranian nuclear scientists or sales of ordnance to Israel. Wait a decade to learn what's really happening now. Tehran is determined: Iran's supreme guide, Ali Khamene'i, again confirmed that nothing and no one will impede his regime from acquiring nuclear weapons, announcing that "Sanctions will not have any impact on our determination to continue our nuclear course." I believe him. Just as the North Korean regime allowed its subject population to starve in the pursuit of nukes, so will the Iranians pay whatever the price. Israel is also determined: The Israeli leadership looks back to the Holocaust and feels the weight of its responsibility. Commenting on those top-ranking military personnel who disagree with him and Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu about the Iranian nuclear danger, Israel's Minister of Defense Ehud Barak commented that "It's good to have diversity in thinking and for people to voice their opinions. But at the end of the day, when the military command looks up, it sees us — the minister of defense and the prime minister. When we look up, we see nothing but the sky above us." U.S. presidential elections: Were the Israelis to attack Iran, Obama's response could have major electoral implications. Were he to approve or (especially) join in the attack, he would scramble the elections to his advantage. Were he to condemn the Israelis, however, he would likely pay a price. (February 4, 2012) Related Topics: Iran, US policy This text may be reposted or forwarded so long as it is presented as an integral whole with complete information provided about its author, date, place of publication, and original URL. Are Egypt's Islamists Heading for a Fall?by Daniel Pipes http://www.danielpipes.org/blog/2012/02/are-egypt-islamists-heading-for-a-fall
Terrified of the secular/modern/liberal demonstrators who made their presence known in Tahrir Square, as well as of the soccer hooligans, Mohamed Tantawi and Egypt's Supreme Council of the Armed Forces have forged a mutually beneficial relationship with the country's Islamists, thereby blocking their joint opponents from power. Very clever – but maybe too clever by half. Here's why:
In Egypt, which imports more than half its caloric intake, wages must keep up with the price of food or people begin to starve. Yet the country appears to be heading for a monumental financial collapse in 2012, and perhaps by the summer. If Islamists strut about as though they rule Egypt, the population will blame them and their SCAF allies – not the Tahriris – for its hunger. The anger could quickly turn ferocious. After waiting 84 years to attain legitimacy and power, the Muslim Brotherhood may find it got suckered into taking over the ship's help just as it heads into an iceberg. Comments: (1) A joke circulating during Hosni Mubarak's reign ("Why hasn't Mubarak appointed a vice president?" "Because he can't find anyone dumber than he is") appears to be wrong. Tantawi is even more incompetent than Mubarak. (2) Military dictatorship, which has been firmly in control of Egypt since 1952, has so badly run the country into the ground that its rule finally appears to be in jeopardy. (February 4, 2012) Related Topics: Egypt This text may be reposted or forwarded so long as it is presented as an integral whole with complete information provided about its author, date, place of publication, and original URL. | |||||||||
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