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WSJ: "The European Union is moving to ban blacklisted Iranian entities from using a Belgium-based financial communications and clearing system in a move that will drastically cut Tehran's ability to conduct global financial transactions, according to senior U.S. and European officials. The system, known as the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication, or Swift, oversees the network used by virtually all the world's largest banks to conduct financial wire transfers. American lawmakers have charged in recent weeks that Iranian companies and banks blacklisted by the U.S. and EU have been using Swift to evade international sanctions. Both houses of the U.S. Congress have drafted legislation threatening to penalize Swift's board and owners if they didn't ban the suspect Iranian entities from using its network. A formal ruling by EU financial regulators on Swift is expected by late February or early March, according to European and U.S. officials. Swift's board is expected to comply, according to these officials. 'Yes, [it's a] done deal,' said a European official. '[It] should be explicitly confirmed by the end of February, early March.'" http://t.uani.com/wBgcKc
AP: "Iran claimed Wednesday that it has taken two major steps toward mastering the production of nuclear fuel, a defiant move in response to increasingly tough Western sanctions over its controversial nuclear program. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad oversaw the insertion of the first Iranian domestically-made fuel rod into a research reactor in northern Tehran, the country's official IRNA news agency reported. Separately, the semiofficial Fars agency reported that a 'new generation of Iranian centrifuges' had been installed and had gone into operation at the country's main uranium enrichment facility at Natanz in central Iran." http://t.uani.com/wzfr3K
NYT: "A series of explosions rocked a residential neighborhood here on Tuesday, leading the Thai authorities to a cache of bombs in a rented house and the capture of two men who the Thai police said carried Iranian passports. Thai officials said that two other suspects, whom they believed to be Iranians, were being sought, and that one of them had fled to neighboring Malaysia... It was possible that the men were simply arms smugglers, drug traffickers or gangsters in a city known as a hub of illicit activity. But the reported nationalities of the two captured suspects raised suspicions that the suspects were part of what Israel has called a terrorist campaign by Iran and the Iranian-backed militant group Hezbollah aimed at Israeli targets, an accusation denied by Iran and Hezbollah." http://t.uani.com/xsMMxW
Nuclear Program & Sanctions NYT: "Iran signaled on Tuesday that it had made further advances in the country's disputed nuclear energy program, announcing that President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad would reveal 'key nuclear achievements' on Wednesday. An Iranian news agency said he was likely to proclaim that a new uranium enrichment plant built inside a mountain near the holy city of Qum was 'fully operational.' ... The new uranium enrichment plant, known as Fordo, has raised Western concerns because it is buried deep underground, making it more impervious to scrutiny." http://t.uani.com/wIr28L
AP: "The United States and Europe are considering unprecedented punishment against Iran that could immediately cripple the country's financial lifeline. But it's an extreme option in the banking world that would come with its own costs. The Obama administration wants Iran evicted from SWIFT, an independent financial clearinghouse that is crucial to the country's overseas oil sales. That would leapfrog the current slow-pressure campaign of sanctions aimed at persuading Iran to drop what the U.S. and its allies contend is a drive toward developing and building nuclear weapons. It also perhaps would buy time for the U.S. to persuade Israel not to launch a pre-emptive military strike on Iran this spring. The last-resort financial effort suggests the U.S. and Europe are grasping for ways to show immediate results because economic sanctions have so far failed to force Iran back to nuclear talks." http://t.uani.com/y5m1VG
NYT: "Iran struck back against a European oil embargo by cutting supplies to six European countries Wednesday as state media in Tehran said that President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was being briefed 'on new nuclear achievements' expected to be announced later in the day. The oil cutoff affects the Netherlands, Spain, Italy, France, Greece and Portugal... The defiant stance seemed ever more pronounced on Wednesday when Press TV, a state-financed satellite broadcaster, said Tehran planned to cut oil exports to the six European countries in response to the latest sanctions imposed by the European Union against Iran's energy and banking sectors. No further details of the Iranian measures were immediately available." http://t.uani.com/zNnfLI
AP: "American attempts to get major Asian importers of Iranian oil to rein in their purchases are faltering as allies South Korea and Japan give U.S. officials a polite brushoff. Emerging giants India and China may even increase their purchases, further complicating Washington's efforts to force Iran to curtail its nuclear program. In 2011, Japan, South Korea, India and China accounted for 60 percent of Iran's oil sales, and the U.S. initiative -- backed up by financial sanctions -- is meant to dig away at the $100 billion in oil revenues Tehran earned last year. Iran will likely suffer some losses when a planned European Union oil embargo kicks in July, and those could be deepened by the discounted prices it may have to offer to Asian buyers in the face of the sanctions. That adds to the pressure on Iran's budget but seems set to fall short of the bruising blow that Washington hoped to land." http://t.uani.com/zzTflf
WSJ: "Shipping oil from Iran to Europe is becoming increasingly difficult, despite the fact that a full oil embargo does not come into effect until July 1, as tightening sanctions from the U.S. and the European Union are causing major shipping companies to avoid business with the country. Shipping giants AP Moller Maersk A/S (AMKBY), Frontline Ltd. (FRO) and Teekay Tankers Ltd. (TNK) have all told Dow Jones Newswires their ships will no longer call at Iranian ports, while some smaller shipowners have also said they are unwilling to send their vessels to the Islamic Republic to lift crude. 'We have stopped having our ships call at Iran,' said Jens Martin Jensen, Chief Executive of Frontline Management AS, a subsidiary of Frontline responsible for overseeing the companies commercial affairs. 'We are just following the sanctions, we have no interest in doing business with Iran,' he added." http://t.uani.com/xUnOvl
Sky News: "Iran and al Qaeda's core leadership under Ayman al Zawahiri have established an 'operational relationship' amid fears the terror group is planning a spectacular attack against the West. There are concerns such an attack, possibly targeting the Olympics, would be in revenge for the killing of Osama bin Laden by the US last year. Sky intelligence sources said Iran was supplying al Qaeda with training in the use advanced explosives, 'some funding and a safe haven' as part of a deal first worked out in 2009 which has now lead to 'operational capacity.' ... A secret intelligence memo, seen by Sky, said: 'Against the background of intensive co-operation over recent months between Iran and al Qaeda - with a view to conducting a joint attack against Western targets overseas... Iran has significantly stepped up its investment, maintenance and improvement of operational and intelligence ties with the al Qaeda leadership in Pakistan in recent months.'" http://t.uani.com/A9q5vZ
NYT: "Bombs discovered in a house in Bangkok were similar to devices used earlier this week against Israeli diplomats in India and Georgia, Israel's ambassador to Thailand said on Wednesday. 'It's almost the same system that was used in Delhi and in Tblisi, which leads us to think that they are connected,' Ambassador Itzhak Shoham said in a telephone interview. Iranian officials immediately rejected the accusation, and a senior official for the Thai police said it was too early to draw any links to an explosion and a series of grenade blasts on Tuesday." http://t.uani.com/zVaGgf
Reuters: "Tightening sanctions aimed at pressuring Tehran to abandon its nuclear programme threaten to drive Iran's flagship cargo shipping line out of Europe, something past efforts have failed to accomplish, a Reuters investigation shows. Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines (IRISL), which carries an estimated one third of the country's dry bulk and container seaborne trade, has faced European Union sanctions for its alleged role in smuggling banned weapons, including measures implemented on July 26, 2010. Yet since then, 23 ships have visited 12 ports in the EU a total of 149 times, according to analysis including vessel movements and port calls for a Reuters special report into Iranian shipping sanctions published on Wednesday." http://t.uani.com/w150U4
Gallup: "Iranians are more likely to approve of Iran developing its nuclear power capabilities for non-military use (57%) than for military use (40%). They are more mixed about military use, which Iran insists it is not pursuing, with 40% approving and 35% disapproving. Nearly one in four did not express an opinion either way." http://t.uani.com/AdAeny
Domestic Politics
WSJ: "Iranians held scattered, silent demonstrations in Tehran and other big cities Tuesday amid a heavy security lockdown, returning to the streets in the first sizable antigovernment marches in a year. The demonstration, the first called by the opposition Green Movement since Feb. 14, 2011, didn't draw the massive turnout or spark the widespread violent clashes as have previous protests in Tehran. That raised the question of whether the opposition-with its leaders under house arrest and other dissenters subject to online monitoring, intimidation and harsh sentences-still has the power to mobilize the public. But the government called out heavy deployments of antiriot police and security forces, as well as volunteer plainclothes militia members, a move opposition supporters said belied Tehran's claims that it has crushed the Green Movement. 'We achieved our goal to prove the movement is still alive and able to endure,' said Ardeshir Amirarjomand, spokesman for the Coordination Council of the Green Movement, according to a report on BBC's Persian-language service. 'If the authorities claim we are dead, then why is there a need to have such high security presence in the streets?'" http://t.uani.com/wGi8Yj
Opinion & Analysis
WashPost Editorial Board: "Two months ago we questioned a decision by Defense Secretary Leon Panetta to spell out publicly his objections to an Israeli military strike against Iran's nuclear program - a speech that must have cheered the commanders of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. Now Mr. Panetta has indirectly caused a similar stir: After a conversation with Mr. Panetta this month, The Post's David Ignatius reported that the Pentagon chief 'believes there is a strong likelihood that Israel will strike Iran in April, May or June.' What could explain this public undercutting of one of America's closest allies? The unfortunate answer seems to be a lack of strategic agreement or basic trust between the Obama administration and the Israeli government of Benjamin Netanyahu. A senior U.S. intelligence official recently said that Israel has grown reticent about discussing a possible attack on Iran and had declined to offer an assurance that it would consult Washington before acting. That leaves the administration facing the possibility that it will be presented with an Israeli-Iranian conflict that could expand to encompass U.S. forces and allies in the Persian Gulf and trigger unforeseeable consequences in the larger Middle East. We continue to believe that military action against Iran, by Israel or the United States, is not yet necessary or wise. U.S. and Israeli officials share an assessment that, though Iran is building up nuclear capability, it has not taken decisive steps toward building a bomb. In the meantime, the pressures on its leadership - from sanctions, sabotage, the disarray of allies such as Syria and domestic discontent - are growing. The best strategy for now is to fan those flames, which could cause the regime to retreat or even to fall. On that, we agree with the Obama administration... For now, several top Israeli officials are skeptical. That is where Mr. Panetta and Mr. Obama should be making an effort. Rather than publicly arguing with Israel, they should be more clearly spelling out U.S. willingness to take military action if Iran is discovered taking steps toward bomb-making, such as enriching its uranium beyond present levels or expelling U.N. inspectors. Saying 'all options are on the table' is not enough; the Obama administration should be explicit about Iranian actions that will violate its red lines - and what the consequences will be." http://t.uani.com/ADdjfb
NYT Editorial Board: "China, Russia and India see themselves as global leaders. So why have they been enabling two dangerous regimes, Syria and Iran, to continue on destructive paths? ... China and India are also hampering the effort to ratchet up sanctions on Iran even as penalties imposed by the Security Council, the United States and the European Union appear to be affecting Iran's economy and politics. (The Iranian president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, is expected to announce on Wednesday that a new uranium enrichment plant is fully operational.) China cut its purchases of Iranian oil this year and secured alternative supplies from Russia and Saudi Arabia. But it is still a major purchaser. India is also still buying and is now Iran's biggest oil customer. Because of American sanctions, these deals are not as lucrative as they could be for Iran. The two countries' need for oil is real, but they should take full advantage of Saudi Arabia's offer to ramp up production to offset any losses from Iran. The International Energy Agency says there is enough oil supply worldwide to prevent a price shock from an embargo. We do not know if sanctions can force Iran to give up its nuclear program or force it to negotiate a compromise deal. But the international community is finally at a moment when serious sanctions are in place and beginning to bite. Iran is finding it hard to pay for food imports and has resorted to bartering. It's time for Russia, China and India (which desperately wants a Security Council seat) to meet the test of leadership. That means all three need to work to find ways to limit Iran's nuclear ambitions. For Russia and China, it means standing against Mr. Assad's siege on his people." http://t.uani.com/xhRgRS
Dennis Ross in NYT: "Speculation about an Israeli strike against Iranian nuclear facilities is rife, but there is little discussion about whether diplomacy can still succeed, precluding the need for military action. Many experts doubt that Tehran would ever accept a deal that uses intrusive inspections and denies or limits uranium enrichment to halt any advances toward a nuclear weapons capability, while still permitting the development of civilian nuclear power. But before we assume that diplomacy can't work, it is worth considering that Iranians are now facing crippling pressure and that their leaders have in the past altered their behavior in response to such pressure. Notwithstanding all their bluster, there are signs that Tehran is now looking for a way out. Much has changed in the last three years. In January 2009, Iran was spreading its influence throughout the Middle East, and Arab leaders were reluctant to criticize Iran in public lest they trigger a coercive Iranian reaction. Similarly, Iran's government wasn't facing significant economic pressures; Iranians had simply adjusted to the incremental sanctions they were then facing. Today, Iran is more isolated than ever. The regional balance of power is shifting against Tehran, in no small part because of its ongoing support for the beleaguered government of Bashar al-Assad in Syria. The Assad regime is failing, and in time, Iran will lose its only state ally in the Arab world and its conduit for arming the militant group Hezbollah in Lebanon... Still, it is unclear whether Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, whose regime depends so heavily on hostility to America, is willing to make a deal on the nuclear issue. Nonetheless, Iran is now signaling that it is interested in diplomacy. Its foreign minister, Ali Akbar Salehi, has declared that Iran will resume talks with the five permanent members of the Security Council and the Germans. He recently said that Iran would discuss Russia's step-by-step proposal to defuse the nuclear standoff, which Iran refused to entertain when a variation of it was first broached last year. Now, with Iran feeling the pressure, its leaders suddenly seem prepared to talk. Of course, Iran's government might try to draw out talks while pursuing their nuclear program. But if that is their strategy, they will face even more onerous pressures, when a planned European boycott of their oil begins on July 1... With Iran reeling from sanctions, the proper environment now exists for diplomacy to work. The next few months will determine whether it succeeds." http://t.uani.com/yXoT0q |
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