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NYT: "Iran said Tuesday that a team of United Nations nuclear inspectors visiting since the weekend had concluded 'constructive and positive' talks with Iranian officials, with further discussions planned at an unspecified date... In a sign that the sanctions could tighten further, United Against Nuclear Iran, a New York-based advocacy group that has successfully promoted other economic penalties against Iran, said it had started a campaign to publicize Iran's dependence on the global financial telecommunication network that nearly every financial institution uses to conduct business. On Monday the group sent a letter to the network, the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication, known as Swift, warning it to end all relations with Iran's central bank and 'deny access to all Iranian banks.' The letter asserted that Iran's membership in the network already violated American and European financial sanctions as well as Swift's own rules. There was no immediate comment to the letter from either Iran or Swift, which is headquartered in Belgium. Mark D. Wallace, president of United Against Nuclear Iran, said in a telephone interview that the group might seek Congressional hearings on Iran's Swift membership, which he described as crucial to the country's economic survival. 'This campaign has the potential to force action,' Mr. Wallace said. 'In some ways it's a silver bullet. If the Iranians don't have access to Swift, they can't get access to revenue.'" http://t.uani.com/xklJMe
WashPost: "An assessment by U.S. spy agencies concludes that Iran is prepared to launch terrorist attacks inside the United States, highlighting new risks as the Obama administration escalates pressure on Tehran to halt its alleged pursuit of an atomic bomb. In congressional testimony Tuesday, U.S. intelligence officials indicated that Iran has crossed a threshold in its adversarial relationship with the United States. While Iran has long been linked to attacks on American targets overseas, U.S. officials said they see troubling significance in Tehran's alleged role in a plot to assassinate the Saudi ambassador in Washington last year. U.S. officials said they have seen no intelligence to indicate that Iran is actively plotting attacks on U.S. soil. But Director of National Intelligence James R. Clapper Jr. said the thwarted plot 'shows that some Iranian officials - probably including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei - have changed their calculus and are now more willing to conduct an attack in the United States in response to real or perceived U.S. actions that threaten the regime.'" http://t.uani.com/x9UbnS
Reuters: "Iran is feeling the bite from economic sanctions imposed over its nuclear program, which is capable of producing a weapon although Iranian leaders have not yet decided to do so, top intelligence chiefs told Congress on Tuesday. 'The sanctions have been biting much, much more literally in recent weeks than they have until this time,' CIA Director David Petraeus said at a Senate intelligence committee hearing. 'What we have to see now is how does that play out, what is the level of popular discontent inside Iran, does that influence the strategic decision-making of the Supreme Leader and the regime, keeping in mind that the regime's paramount goal in all that they do is their regime survival,' he said. Iran's currency, the rial, has lost 'considerable value' and there have been 'runs on the bank' as Iranians try to dump domestic currency and acquire assets that will hold value better as inflation 'takes off,' Petraeus said." http://t.uani.com/yjkElv
Nuclear Program & Sanctions Reuters: "Senior U.N. nuclear inspectors plan another trip to Iran soon after holding what both sides described as 'good' talks about suspicions that the Islamic Republic is seeking the means to develop atomic weapons. The talks represented rare direct dialogue in the protracted international stand-off over Iran's nuclear activity. Tension has worsened in recent weeks with the West pursuing a punitive embargo on Iranian oil and Tehran threatening retaliation. Led by the International Atomic Energy Agency's global head of inspections, the IAEA team returned on Wednesday from three days of talks in Iran to try to end three years of deadlock in efforts to resolve questions about Tehran's nuclear work." http://t.uani.com/wmOGfp
AP: "Visiting U.N. inspectors did not visit any of the country's nuclear sites, Iran's official news agency reported Tuesday, concentrating instead on talks with officials. IRNA quoted an unnamed Iranian official as saying the team of experts from the International Atomic Energy Agency conducted negotiations with Iranians and did not visit the sites where uranium is being enriched. He said the talks were held in a 'positive and constructive atmosphere.' The report did not elaborate. There was no comment from the U.N. team." http://t.uani.com/xMz9uz
Reuters: "President Barack Obama will soon get regular, albeit incomplete, reports on how oil markets are coping ahead of broader sanctions on Iran that could help him justify easing off sanctions to prevent a politically damaging jump in crude prices. Under the latest Iranian sanctions signed into law late last year, the U.S. Energy Information Administration must begin issuing reports by Feb 29 and every two months after that on oil production and prices as the United States moves to squelch Iranian oil shipments. The law imposes sanctions on financial institutions dealing with Iran's central bank. It's designed to rein in Iran's nuclear program by targeting its ability to sell oil, the country's lifeblood. The administration has nervously moved ahead with sanctions as it negotiates with some of Iran's biggest customers to reduce their imports of its oil." http://t.uani.com/zVYgWv
WSJ: "Canada said it is expanding its sanctions against Iranian companies and individuals, part of an effort in North America and Europe to pressure Iran to return to negotiations over the its nuclear program. Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird said Canada is sanctioning five more companies and three individuals, adding to a list that now contains 49 individuals and 339 entities. 'These sanctions cover the known leadership of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and block virtually all financial transactions with Iran, including those with the central bank,' he said in a statement." http://t.uani.com/zfXgNL
Domestic Politics
Bloomberg: "Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad proposed cutting the government's budget by 5.6 percent for the coming Iranian year while more than doubling military spending, state media reported. Ahmadinejad presented a draft budget of 5,100 trillion rials ($450 billion) to parliament today for review, the state- run Mehr news agency reported. The plan for the Iranian fiscal year that begins March 20 includes the government or public budget as well as spending for state-owned companies of some 4,000 trillion rials, the official Islamic Republic News Agency said." http://t.uani.com/zARxCm
Foreign Affairs
NYT: "As antigovernment forces in Syria's violent uprising have increased the pressure on President Bashar al-Assad to step down, Iran, his main Middle East supporter, also finds itself under siege, undermining a once-powerful partnership and longtime American foe. It is an unusual position for Iran, and its vulnerability in Syria has not been lost on the United States, which has been imposing stiff economic sanctions on both countries. In the calculus of predicting the political outcomes of the Arab Spring upheavals, some American officials and political analysts see the possible downfall of Mr. Assad as an event that could further undermine Iran as its economy reels under the sanctions imposed to get Tehran to suspend its nuclear program." http://t.uani.com/yVxoX2
Opinion & Analysis
WSJ Editorial Board: "Remember that bizarre story from last fall about an Iranian agent based in Texas who allegedly sought to conspire with Mexican drug gangs to blow up Saudi Arabia's ambassador to the U.S. in a crowded Washington, D.C., restaurant? The Justice Department insisted the story was true. Yet the Administration's reaction was otherwise muted, and the press corps went out of its way to cast doubt on the story. The Iranians can't be that crazy? Well, yes, they can be, at least according to President Obama's top intelligence adviser. In testimony yesterday to the Senate Intelligence Committee, Director of National Intelligence James Clapper warned that Iran's leadership, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, 'have changed their calculus and are now more willing to conduct an attack in the United States as a response to real or perceived actions that threaten the regime.' Translation: Not only is Iran prepared to use terrorism in retaliation for any military strikes against it, they're also prepared to get their retaliation in first. 'There is more to unfold here,' he said. 'They're trying to penetrate and engage in this hemisphere.' Mr. Clapper, a former Air Force general, is not given to flights of exaggeration. That should give his warnings some weight, especially among those who believe that, for all the aggressive rhetoric, Iranian leaders conduct foreign policy in a prudent and rational way and are amenable to negotiations. Mr. Clapper's testimony comes as Defense Secretary Leon Panetta is warning that Iran is about a year away from having a nuclear bomb. So here's a question to those who oppose military strikes on Iran: If the regime is prepared to stage terrorist strikes in America when they don't have a bomb, what will they be capable of when they do have one?" http://t.uani.com/Aam5ay
Claudia Rosett in Forbes: "With sanctions currently the U.S. tool of choice for thwarting Iran's terror networks and nuclear ambitions, the good news is that U.S. lawmakers are crafting new measures to cast a wider net. Let's hope that this time they don't leave a hole big enough for an Iranian oil tanker to sail right through. Make that a fleet of oil tankers. Despite the many sanctions now targeting Iran's regime, and bedeviling Iran's national merchant fleet, the Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines (IRISL), Iran's main tanker fleet has so far remained exempt. If the aim is to contain and pressure Iran's regime, this is no small omission. Iran's main tanker fleet is owned by a company called NITC, formerly the National Iranian Tanker Company. Headquartered in Tehran, NITC ranks as the world's fourth largest operator of very large crude carriers, according to a leading London-based shipping information service, Lloyd's List, which reports that last year NITC was responsible for transporting 53 million tons of crude oil. Currently, NITC's web site lists a fleet of 39 tankers, which it uses to carry Iranian oil, and also charters out on the international market. NITC serves Iran not only as a vehicle for moving petroleum, but for enjoying business access and networking opportunities. In its chartering activities, NITC says it aims, among other things, to 'build close relationships with reputable charters and shipbroking firms,' and call at 'a wide variety of global ports and terminals.' NITC describes itself on its web site as employing more than 3,000 staff, including 2,500 seafaring personnel, of whom about 85% are Iranian nationals. NITC tankers call freely at ports from Europe to the Far East. Within the past five weeks, for instance, an NITC tanker, the Sepid, has called at the Greek port of Piraeus; two more NITC tankers, the Saveh and the Sarvestan, have called at the Dutch port of Rotterdam, where NITC keeps an office... NITC officials have been protesting that it makes no sense for the U.S. to sanction them. They say that while NITC was once owned by Iran's state oil company, NITC was privatized 12 years ago and is 'not a state company,' as NITC's commercial director, Habibolah Seyedan told Reuters last week. He also said that NITC has no links to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the IRGC. Since the U.S. blacklisted the IRGC in 2007 for its role in Iran's proliferation activities, both U.S. and European Union sanctions authorities have targeted a growing number of IRGC-related entities linked to Iran's terror and proliferation networks... Before U.S. lawmakers rush to thank NITC, however, they might want to ask just how many degrees of separation actually distance NITC and its officials from Iran's regime and the IRGC." http://t.uani.com/ydpCxD
Sadanand Dhume in WSJ: "How should India respond to U.S.-led efforts to halt Iran's suspected rogue nuclear weapons program? An India that uses its oil purchases and diplomatic clout to create breathing room for Iran risks scuppering the notion New Delhi has benefited from for more than a decade: that India's rise is beneficial to the West. By contrast, should India throw its weight behind a powerful anti-Iran coalition, it stands to gain by halting the further nuclearization of its neighborhood, blunting the spread of radical Islam and bolstering its credentials as a force for stability. You would think India would decisively choose the latter path, but it's unclear where it stands on this question as of now. On one hand, since 2005, New Delhi has voted against Tehran three times at the International Atomic Energy Agency. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has declared that India opposes the acquisition of nuclear weapons by Iran, and has also withdrawn from negotiations to build a gas pipeline linking India to Iran via Pakistan. At the same time, New Delhi shows little appetite for stepping up sanctions against the Islamic Republic, especially the recent round of U.S.-EU ones. On Sunday, Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee declared that 'it is not possible for India to take any decision to reduce the imports from Iran drastically.'" http://t.uani.com/xXuw16 |
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