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NYT: "Amid mounting tensions over whether Israel will carry out a military strike against Iran's nuclear program, the United States and Israel remain at odds over a fundamental question: whether Iran's crucial nuclear facilities are about to become impregnable... The Israelis have zeroed in on Iran's plan to put much of its uranium enrichment near Qum in an underground facility beneath so many layers of granite that even the Pentagon acknowledges it would be out of the reach of its best bunker-busting bombs. Once enrichment activities are under way at Qum, the Israelis argue, Iran could throw out United Nations inspectors and produce bomb-grade fuel without fear the facility would be destroyed. At its core, the official said, the argument the Israelis make is that once the Iranians get an 'impregnable breakout capability' - that is, a place that is protected from a military strike - 'it makes no difference whether it will take Iran six months or a year or five years' to fabricate a nuclear weapon, he said." http://t.uani.com/x4IxUA
AP: "The prospect of conflict with Iran has eclipsed Afghanistan as the key national security issue with head-spinning speed. After years of bad blood and an international impasse over Iran's disputed nuclear program, why does the threat of war seem so suddenly upon us? The short answer is that Iran has used the years of deadlock over whether it was pursuing a bomb to get within roughly 12 months of being able to build one. Iran claims its nuclear program is not aimed at building a bomb, but it has refused to drop suspect elements of the program. Time is running short for Iran to back down without a fight. Time is also running short for either the United States or Israel to mount a pre-emptive military strike on Iran's nuclear sites, something that seemed far-fetched until fairly recently. It is still unlikely, and for the U.S. represents the last worst option to stop an Iranian bomb." http://t.uani.com/zozUsh
Reuters: "Iran's seaborne trade is withering as sanctions are stepped up against the Islamic Republic, freezing bank finance and deterring many international trade and shipping companies from getting involved in deals, industry sources say. Much of Iran's imports, including food and consumer goods, are transported by sea via container and bulker ships. Oil tankers are used to ferry the country's vital crude oil exports. But U.S. financial sanctions imposed since the beginning of this year to punish Tehran over its nuclear program are playing havoc with Iran's ability to buy imports and receive payment for its oil exports... Last year the U.S. blacklisted major Iranian port operator Tidewater Middle East Co, which operates seven terminals in Iran including Bandar Abbas. The EU followed suit last month, which industry sources expect will complicate ship container trades." http://t.uani.com/wzMgBB
Nuclear Program & Sanctions Reuters: "Danish shipping and oil company A.P. Moller-Maersk has suspended new oil tanker deals with Iran due to European Union sanctions which will embargo imports of oil from the Islamic Republic into the bloc, a senior Maersk official told Reuters on Wednesday. International shipping companies are increasingly wary of falling foul of the growing raft of sanctions and the complexities involved in trading with Iran, ship industry officials say... A Maersk spokesman said its tanker unit made 14 Iran related voyages in 2011, 'representing a miniscule part of their activity'.... The chief executive of Frontline, the world's largest independent tanker operator, told Reuters in December it did not have dealings with Iran." http://t.uani.com/xL2B0Z
CSM: "Iran is seeking to close grain purchases using gold and oil as payment, and has paid in yen for a large volume of wheat in its first deal since Western sanctions against Tehran started choking imports of food staples, European wheat exporters said. Iran bought at least 200,000 tonnes of soft wheat on the world market last week for prompt delivery from private sellers - mostly of Australian origin - but some traders said the United States could possibly account for part of the volume. New financial sanctions imposed since the beginning of this year to punish Tehran over its nuclear program have ended up playing havoc with Iran's ability to buy imports and receive payment for key food items." http://t.uani.com/w7nJau
Reuters: "Indian tea exports to Iran are facing payment hurdles, the trade secretary said on Thursday, the latest sign that Western sanctions are biting the Islamic Republic which is struggling to pay to keep its trade flowing." http://t.uani.com/AehFIM
Human Rights
WashPost: "A former U.S. Marine sentenced to death in Iran for allegedly spying for the CIA could be saved if the Obama administration would consider a prisoner swap, his Iranian attorney said Wednesday. Amir Mirzaei Hekmati, 28, who was sentenced in January to be hanged, could face execution immediately after an appeals court has reviewed his sentence, said lawyer Mohammad Hossein Aghassi. The court's decision was expected Jan. 25; the reason for the delay is unclear, he said. Aghassi stressed that it was essential for the Obama administration to do anything within its means to reach out to Iran - including offering a possible prisoner exchange - to save Hekmati, a U.S. citizen of Iranian descent." http://t.uani.com/z81ESi
Domestic Politics
AP: "There's a Persian saying used to describe an under-the-radar political effort: 'Driving at night with the lights off.' Allies of embattled President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad may be doing just that as they campaign in Iran's hinterlands in hopes of scoring a comeback in next month's parliamentary elections. The voting March 2 should -- momentarily, at least -- shift attention from Iran's international standoffs over its nuclear program back to the country's internal power plays: the ruling system striking back against perceived runaway ambitions by Ahmadinejad and his inner circle." http://t.uani.com/xFOyM7
Opinion & Analysis
Jack David in NRO: "Events are conspiring to precipitate a cataclysmic confrontation with Iran. Time has nearly expired for international sanctions - even the so-called tough and crippling ones - to keep Iran from acquiring deliverable nuclear weapons. The U.S. soon will not be able to avoid making a choice: Will it meet the challenge of the coming confrontation or shrink from it? Either way, there will be consequences for U.S. interests abroad and at home. During last Friday's prayers in Tehran, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Iran would continue its nuclear program. His remarks were broadcast on Iranian state television. In these remarks to worshippers, Khamenei reiterated Iran's threat to wipe Israel - 'a cancerous tumor that should be cut and will be cut' - off the map, and averred that Iran will aid any nation or group that attacks Israel. The Associated Press reports that he explicitly acknowledged that Iran has supported and will support Hezbollah and Hamas attacks... For Israel, the risk of waiting is immense. As has been said, Israel cannot take a 10 percent chance of 100 percent annihilation. In addition, Iran is fortifying the defenses of its nuclear sites, and they may soon be nearly impossible to destroy. It will have reached an 'immunity zone,' as Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak has described it. The supreme leader's vitriol at last Friday's prayers was not restricted to Israel. It was targeted at the U.S. as well. This should be no surprise. Iran since 1980 has declared the U.S. to be its enemy. It has attacked the U.S. through proxies repeatedly - e.g. the 1983 attack on the Marines barracks in Lebanon that killed 241 American servicemen, the 1996 Khobar Towers attack in Saudi Arabia that killed 19 U.S. Air Force personnel, continuing Iranian support for attacks on U.S. troops in Iraq and Afghanistan since 2003, and last October's foiled plot to assassinate Saudi Arabia's ambassador to the U.S. on U.S. soil. A nuclear-armed Iran with the hegemonic ambitions Supreme Leader Khamenei also acknowledged in his Friday prayer remarks would view itself as free to step up its aggression against American personnel and assets. It would also step up aggressive action and intimidation of the U.S.'s Arab allies in the Middle East. And, of course, it might well try to make good on its threat to wipe Israel off the map. A failure on America's part to support an Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear facilities would have serious consequences for the U.S. at home and abroad. The inevitable Iranian counterattack would doubtless include attacks on American citizens and property, just as if the U.S. had participated in the attack directly. American blood would be spilled and American treasure expended. A failure to support Israel would have additional consequences that may be less obvious but also are grave. If the U.S. failed to support Israel in its hour of need, America's position of influence in the world would take a crippling blow." http://t.uani.com/zTq5gD
Mehdi Khalaji in WSJ: "Since President Obama came to office, unconditional engagement with Iran has been official U.S. policy and total rejection of engagement has been official Iranian policy. The president has sent several letters to Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, proposing various types of engagement, but all these ideas have been rebuffed. In March 2010, when the president said 'Faced with an extended hand, Iran's leaders have shown only a clenched fist,' the ayatollah accused him of deceitfully offering a 'metal hand inside a velvet glove.' It's time to acknowledge that engaging Iran's supreme leader is hopeless. The reason for Khamanei's refusal to engage is simple: As the strategic architect and ultimate defender of Iran's nuclear program, his political standing depends on the survival of the program and on the perception that he can reject all pressure. His persistence amid rising U.S. sanctions determines the credibility of his claim to be 'the leader of Muslim world.' Any flinching would strengthen his rivals inside the country, because they were aggressively sidelined by him when they advocated a more moderate nuclear policy. Holding firm is an issue of life and death for him. In this regard, Iran is very different from Iraq under Saddam Hussein. Saddam was able to survive more than a decade of sanctions because the regime was run by a single, ruthless megalomaniac who could eliminate any dissent with a bullet to the back of the head. There was no such thing as a 'political crisis' in Saddam's Iraq because such a regime has no politics. By contrast, Iran is a den of political intrigue, with sophisticated and nuanced maneuvering among factions, albeit within an increasingly narrow element of the elite. In such a system, the leader's position is much more vulnerable than in a state of iron-fisted, one-man rule. Specifically, Khamenei's decision to crack down on the protests provoked by the rigged presidential election in 2009 created deep fissures within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the vanguard of the regime. Recently retired Gen. Hossein Alai, founder of the Revolutionary Guard Navy and its commander during the Iran-Iraq War, wrote an article for Tehran's Ettelaat newspaper that implicitly compared the situation in Iran today with the year prior to the revolution. He suggested that if Khamenei did not reach a political compromise with the reformist leaders of the protest movement, he would be making the same mistake that the Shah made a generation ago... What has really stoked the Revolutionary Guard's anger at Khamenei is that they see him as responsible for the tougher Western sanctions that have hurt their economic interests. The Revolutionary Guard has been a major player in the Iranian economy for more than two decades. Today, even most private businesses cannot function without some 'special arrangement' with the Revolutionary Guard. Veterans are prominent in industries ranging from oil, mining and banking to cinema and sports. Most of them have changed from idealist revolutionaries to pragmatic money-lovers." http://t.uani.com/whYc9Q |
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