Monday, October 22, 2012

Eye on Iran: U.S. and Iran Deny Plan for Nuclear Talks








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NYT:
"The question of whether the United States should seek to engage Iran in one-on-one talks on its nuclear program joined the likely topics for Monday's final presidential debate as supporters of President Obama and Mitt Romney jousted on Sunday over the issue. The prospect of such talks was raised in an article published over the weekend by The New York Times that said Iran and the United States had agreed in principle to direct talks after the presidential election. On Saturday, the White House denied that a final agreement on direct talks had been reached, while saying that it remained open to such contacts. On Sunday, the Iranian Foreign Ministry dismissed the report... The Times, citing unnamed senior Obama administration officials, reported over the weekend that after secret exchanges, American and Iranian officials had agreed in principle to hold one-on-one negotiations between the nations, which have not had official diplomatic relations since the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran. Iran's foreign minister, Ali Akbar Salehi, denied on Sunday that any direct talks had been scheduled. 'We do not have anything such as talks with the United States,' he told the semiofficial Fars news agency. Mr. Salehi predicted that there would be a new round of talks in November with the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council - including the United States - and Germany, but said that 'there is no fixed date yet.'" http://t.uani.com/X130us

Trend: "Three foreign currency printing companies have decided to discontinue their businesses in Iran, UANI (United Against Nuclear Iran U.S. group) Communications Director Nathan Carleton told Trend. Earlier this month, UANI has launched a 'Iran Rial Currency Printing Campaign', which targeted companies that print Rial for the Islamic Republic. According to Nathan Carleton, three such companies have stopped their businesses there, as a result of UANI's campaign. 'All three of the firms we contacted, KBA, Flint, and DLR, have informed us that they are no longer involved in currency printing in Iran,' Carleton said, noting that UANI applauds the companies for their decisions. KBA, of Germany, is the world's second-largest security banknote printing press manufacturer, and has sold printing presses to numerous Iranian entities... 'UANI is currently investigating what other companies might have taken their places, and are prepared to pressure them as well,' Carleton noted." http://t.uani.com/S9ut9l

Independent Online: "The government has confirmed that SA's ambassador to Iran, Yusuf Saloojee, has been suspended and recalled to SA while he is being investigated for allegedly taking bribes from cellphone company MTN to help it win an operating licence in Iran. International Relations and Co-operation Minister Maite Nkoana-Mashabane told Parliament in July that Saloojee was being investigated on the charges that arose from allegations by the Turkish cellphone company Turkcell in a US court. This week Nkoana-Mashabane said Saloojee had been recalled for an internal investigation by her department into the allegations against him." http://t.uani.com/UpQ41V
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Nuclear Program

WSJ: "The Obama administration and European Union expect negotiations between Iran and world powers over its nuclear program to resume after the U.S. presidential election in November, with a renewed focus on getting Tehran to give up more nuclear fuel in exchange for economic incentives. U.S. and European officials stressed in recent interviews that no firm date has been set for new talks between Iran and the international negotiating bloc, known as P5+1, which includes the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council plus Germany. But they said they see a diplomatic window between the U.S. election and Iran's presidential election in June. The coordinator for the P5+1 bloc, EU foreign-policy chief Catherine Ashton, has pressed for new talks with Tehran since the last round broke down in Moscow in June, said these officials. 'If I was to bet, there'll be new round in November or December,' said a U.S. official briefed on the Iran diplomacy." http://t.uani.com/VuDNKS

AP: "France's foreign minister says Iran appears on track to reach the ability to produce a nuclear weapon by the first half of next year. France is one of six countries that have negotiated with Tehran over its nuclear program, which Iran insists is peaceful. French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius told Europe-1 radio Sunday that unspecified experts 'have established in an absolutely indisputable way' that Iran has compiled a full array of centrifuges that 'apparently will allow the ability to go toward possession of the nuclear weapon by the first half of next year, the end of the first half.'" http://t.uani.com/Ta2Rnf

WSJ: "The U.S. and Israeli militaries on Sunday began their largest-ever joint exercise to practice integrating defense systems in case of massive missile attacks on the Jewish state, bolstering efforts to deter possible strikes by Iran and its allies. Dubbed 'Austere Challenge 12,' the drill highlights the allies' close military ties despite months of public bickering between the White House and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over how to block Tehran's nuclear program, Israeli analysts said... The exercise, the sixth large-scale drill between the allies since 2000, signals to Iran that an attack on Israel would involve drawing the U.S. into a conflict, a possibility that may prompt leaders there to think twice, said experts. The last large-scale joint exercise, known as Juniper Cobra, was held in 2010." http://t.uani.com/X11rfW

LAT: "Austrian-born Daniel Frosch was only 23 when U.S. officials first realized that he had become a small but important cog in Iran's illicit weapons programs. In October 2005, Austrian authorities intercepted a parcel containing graphite cylinders, which can be used in ballistic missiles, addressed to Iran from Frosch's tiny export company in Graz. In late 2006, they tried to arrest him for allegedly attempting to sell valves and other components with military applications to Iranian state-owned companies. By then Frosch had moved to the United Arab Emirates, which has no extradition treaty with Austria and loose export control rules. Today, U.S. officials say, his Ajman-based International General Resourcing FZE sells banned electronics and other material to Tehran as part of a global maze of illicit suppliers, fly-by-night companies, crooked shipping agents and other corrupt officials in Iran's sanctions-busting schemes." http://t.uani.com/UrLvnJ

Sanctions

Reuters: "Iranian crude volumes received by China have been below contracted levels since September, because Iran's tanker fleet, the sole transporter of its crude to China, has been struggling to meet delivery schedules, trade sources said on Friday. Iran, grappling with tough Western sanctions targeting its energy and petrochemical sectors, has delayed loading of some shipments for September, October and November to China, its largest oil customer and top trading partner. The delays are further evidence the National Iranian Tanker Company (NITC) is struggling to meet delivery schedules after a European Union insurance ban caused buyers to cut back on orders, forcing NITC to deploy more than half of its tanker fleet to store oil. 'What was nominated was different from what was actually loaded,' said one Chinese buyer, who declined to be identified because he was not authorised to speak to the media. 'Almost every cargo was delayed, some were even delayed for 10 to 15 days." http://t.uani.com/XEuxRU

Reuters: "South Korea is set to resume Iranian oil imports in October after crude cargoes were halted by EU sanctions in the previous two months, with shipments transported under Iranian insurance cover to avoid sanctions targeting Tehran's nuclear programme. The north Asian country's overall crude oil imports fell 2.8 percent in September from a year ago to 78.36 million barrels, or 2.6 million barrels per day (bpd), data from the state-run Korea National Oil Corp showed on Monday. The world's fifth largest importer of crude oil, and one of Iran's biggest oil customers, imported 38.77 million barrels of crude oil from Iran in the first nine months of this year, down 41.3 percent year on year, KNOC said. South Korean refiners have resumed imports of Iranian crude oil for October arrivals, with imports seen at about 6 million barrels per month, or 200,000 bpd, representing a return to full contracted volumes." http://t.uani.com/UrIweZ

Daily Telegraph: "A senior aide to Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has used trips to Vienna to defy United Nations sanctions to build an international money laundering network that funds black market ¬equipment purchases by the country's regime, the Daily Telegraph has learned. At least two visits this year to Vienna by a senior departmental director have been used to carry out transactions worth millions of euros, according to sources. Western officials confirmed the official is a regular visitor to the Austrian capital and has travelled for extended stays each year since 2007. While the official and the Centre for Innovation and Technology Cooperation - part of Mr Ahmadinejad's presidential office - are on the US Treasury's sanctions list, no measures have been taken against the official in Europe. Money passing through the Iranian network is believed to be brought into Europe through diplomatic channels in deliveries of half a million euros." http://t.uani.com/Plwy5I

Platts: "Japanese refiners have yet to decide on their crude import volumes from Iran for 2013 as they are looking at various factors including US sanctions, Petroleum Association of Japan President Yasushi Kimura told reporters Monday. 'At present, we have not decided on our direction of Iran crude imports,' Kimura said at a press conference in Tokyo. 'We will consider our options from now on to see such factors as various alternative crude options as well as situations over the US sanctions to decide whether we will cut our imports further or maintain the current reduction pace.' Kimura also added that every refiner, which has contracts to import Iranian crude should decide about its imports depending on situations at the time of their contract renewals." http://t.uani.com/SgEBgB

JPost: "Iranian economists and analysts continued to criticize the Central Bank of Iran on Sunday for poor reporting on the country's skyrocketing inflation rate and for failing to stabilize its currency. On Saturday, the central bank reported that the official inflation rate for the Iranian month of Shahrivar (August 22-September 21) was 24 percent, an increase of just half a percentage point over last month's figure. However, as political infighting between Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his conservative critics continues over who is to blame for Iran's economic crisis, Iranian analysts have warned that real inflation figures could be as much as double the central bank rate. Dr. Mehdi Taghavi, a leading economist from Iran's Allameh Tabatabai University, said recently that Iran's inflation rate is close to 50%, according to Iran's Labor News Agency." http://t.uani.com/RWK5zP

Bloomberg: "Expanded European sanctions against Iran approved Oct. 15 lack clarity as to whether exporting liquefied petroleum gas from the country remains legal, according to Clarkson Plc (CKN), the largest shipbroker. Following are comments by Clarkson on the extended measures, taken from a report published by the shipbroker Oct. 19. Twenty LPG carriers departed the Iranian port of Assaluyeh since the first European sanctions took effect July 1, according to data compiled by Bloomberg from IHS Inc., an Englewood, Colorado-based researcher. 'There has been a notable use of ambiguous wording by legislators, inspiring little confidence. If it is their intention to stem the flow of LPG cargoes from Iran, then this has not been made clear to those in the trade. The result is further confusion and more time wasted consulting with legal and insurance advisors.'" http://t.uani.com/Tso3ab

Terrorism

Reuters:
"Iran on Saturday condemned a car bomb attack in Beirut that killed a prominent Lebanese intelligence official on Friday and suggested that Israel was to blame. A senior Israeli official dismissed the suggestion as 'beyond pathetic'. The slain Lebanese official, Brigadier-General Wissam al-Hassan, was close to several Lebanese politicians who back the uprising in Syria and led several investigations into Syrian meddling in Lebanese affairs, including one that implicated Damascus and its Lebanese ally Hezbollah in the assassination of former prime minister Rafik al-Hariri in 2005. Iran is Syria's most powerful regional ally." http://t.uani.com/To8kbU
 
AP: "Iran says a guilty plea by a Texas man allegedly hired by Iran to kill Saudi Arabia's ambassador to the United States was the result of 'psychological and moral pressure.' The official IRNA news agency Saturday quotes Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast as saying Manssor Arbabsiar's guilty plea Wednesday in a U.S. court is proof that the case is a 'ridiculous plot' against Iran since Arbabsiar originally pleaded not guilty last year." http://t.uani.com/TrexDW

AFP: "The Saudi coastguard have arrested a group of Iranians who attempted to infiltrate the country by sea near the northeastern frontier with Kuwait, authorities said. Seized were 14 Iranians who had been dropped off on shore by a boat and the driver of the boat, who was chased and captured by patrol boats as he headed out, Eastern Province coastguard spokesman Colonel Khaled al-Arqubi in a statement. 'Fourteen Iranians were captured on Friday night while attempting to infiltrate into the kingdom through the eastern coast in the area of Khafji,' he said." http://t.uani.com/WYAKsw

Human Rights


AFP: "Iran executed 10 drug traffickers in a prison in Tehran on Monday, despite repeated calls from Amnesty International to halt such hangings. The men sent to gallows were convicted of trafficking more than a tonne of opium and a tonne of methamphetamine, according to the website of the prosecutor's office in Tehran. London-based human rights watchdog Amnesty International has repeatedly called on Iran not to execute people convicted of drug trafficking, saying the sentence is excessive. Three-quarters of executions in Iran, of which there are several hundred per year, involve drug traffickers netted in the Islamic republic's severe anti-drug laws." http://t.uani.com/TCmY9F

AFP: "Iran's judiciary has rejected a request by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to visit Tehran's notorious Evin prison, its spokesman said on Sunday, calling the request's timing inappropriate. 'As we are faced with special circumstances and the country's priorities are the economy and people's living conditions, all authorities should focus on solving key issues... visiting a prison is extraneous,' said chief prosecutor Gholam Hossein Mohseni Ejeie. 'More than seven years of his presidency have passed, and no request was made during that time,' he said, according to the ISNA news agency. Mohseni Ejeie, who also acts as the judiciary's spokesman, suggested that Ahmadinejad's sudden interest in Evin was linked to 'a person affiliated to (the government) in prison' -- an allusion to the president's press adviser, Ali Akbar Javanfekr. Javanfekr, who heads the official IRNA news agency and state newspaper Iran, was arrested in September and sent to Evin for a six-month sentence after being convicted of publishing material offensive to Islamic codes and public morality." http://t.uani.com/Vt3wDC

Opinion & Analysis

WSJ Editorial Board:
"'This is my last election. After my election I have more flexibility.' That's what President Obama was overheard telling then Russian President Dmitry Medvedev in March on an open microphone when he thought he was speaking privately. The exchange is worth recalling with the weekend story that the White House has agreed 'in principle' to a bilateral meeting with Iran on its nuclear weapons program-after the election.  A White House spokesman immediately denied the New York Times report 'that the United States and Iran have agreed to one-on-one talks or any meeting after the American elections.' But he added that 'we continue to work' with other nations 'on a diplomatic solution and have said from the outset that we would be prepared to meet bilaterally.' We'll go with the New York Times on this one. Someone senior clearly was bragging about the one-on-one deal, and probably because the source or sources thought it would help Mr. Obama. The timing also is suspicious coming before Monday's foreign-policy debate, and while the White House is on defense about its security failures in Benghazi. The Times's dispatch treated the news as a diplomatic breakthrough that could make Mr. Obama look like a peacemaker and put Mitt Romney on the spot. The safe bet is that something is going on that the President hopes to unveil formally after the election... Regarding Iran, Mr. Obama has offered to hold direct talks with Iran for four years to no avail. It's hard to believe that Ayatollah Khamenei has had a sudden change of heart. Most likely, the bow to diplomacy is another attempt to buy more time so Iran can get still-closer to having a bomb. Iran has already bought four years on Mr. Obama's watch, but Israel is increasingly impatient as evidence builds that Iran may get a bomb next year. Iran may feel now is the time to play the direct talks with America card and keep Mr. Obama on a string. The Iran leak also underscores how some people in this Administration have been willing to exploit national security for political purposes. The self-serving leaks to the media have been legion and sometimes damaging, notably after the killing of Osama bin Laden... Now, two weeks before the election, we get another leak designed to make the President look good but which may have unpredictable consequences in the real world. Iran's foreign minister also denied the report of direct talks, but who knows what impact the leak will have on Iran's internal politics or other regional players. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Sunday he wasn't aware of any U.S. plans for bilateral talks with Iran." http://t.uani.com/ViHdLd

WSJ Editorial Board: "There have been two big stories about Iran in recent weeks. One is that Iran's currency, the rial, is in freefall. The other is that Iran's nuclear program is in overdrive. So the question becomes: Which one will blow up first? A report earlier this month from the Washington, D.C.-based Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) warns that Tehran may be closer than even the Israelis think to enriching uranium to about 90%, the grade needed for a nuclear weapon. According to the ISIS study, the Iranians could combine their stockpiles of civilian- and medium-grade uranium to produce a bomb's worth of 90% uranium in about two to four months. That doesn't put Iran within sight of a bomb, at least not yet. 'Iran would need many additional months to manufacture a nuclear device suitable for underground testing,' the report says, 'and even longer to make a reliable warhead for a ballistic missile.' But this judgment assumes that Iran seeks to have a sophisticated nuclear weapon from the get-go, rather than a crude 'gun-type' bomb of the sort that leveled Hiroshima, and which would be much simpler to produce. The judgment also assumes that Iran has no more enriched uranium than what the International Atomic Energy Agency reports it has. Yet Tehran has a record of nuclear deceit. Intelligence analysts shouldn't assume that absence of evidence means evidence of absence.Then there's the Iranian economy. The Obama Administration is pointing to the recent sharp drop in the rial-down about 80% against the dollar in the last year, including a 40% tumble over a single weekend in September-as evidence that sanctions are having a devastating effect and could tilt Tehran away from its nuclear ambitions. But while Iran's economy is undoubtedly in bad shape, that has less to do with sanctions than with ordinary economic mismanagement. The government botched a subsidy reform last year, in which it tried to compensate for the elimination of fuel subsidies with cash handouts. Years of loose monetary policy have led to an annual inflation rate estimated by economist Steve Hanke to be approaching 200%. Last month's abrupt devaluation was largely the result of a government crackdown on black market currency traders. It's true that sanctions have hit some Iranian businesses, especially those that rely on imported parts. Sanctions have also cut sharply into the regime's oil exports, down to about a million barrels a day from 2.25 million a year ago. But while exports are down sharply, revenues are off only 17% since 2010, thanks to higher oil prices. Iran is expected to earn $53 billion in oil revenues in 2012." http://t.uani.com/SaPthL

Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen in WT: "Just a few days ago, Mansour J. Arbabsiar pleaded guilty to working with Iran's Quds force to carry out an attack on U.S. soil and assassinate a foreign diplomat stationed in Washington. Earlier this month, Hezbollah, a terrorist proxy of the Iranian regime, reportedly launched an Iranian-supplied drone that penetrated Israel's airspace before being shot down. Late last month, the Iranian navy launched four missiles as a show of force and its capacity to shut down access to the Persian Gulf. These are just a few examples of how the Iranian threat has become more dangerous since the Obama administration took office. Unfortunately, despite its rhetoric to the contrary, the administration has not done what is necessary to effectively address the threat from Tehran. Iran's nuclear program, particularly its ability to produce enriched uranium, has expanded exponentially since President Obama took office in 2009. Yet the president continues to embrace engagement and meaningless negotiations with Tehran while refusing to set clear red lines with respect to Iran's nuclear program. The administration's behavior has sent a clear message to our allies and the Iranian regime: The United States is not willing to do what it takes to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons capability. Nonetheless, sanctions spearheaded by Congress - even with the administration fighting us every step of the way - have made an impact. Iran's oil revenues are falling and could drop much lower as the embargo on Iranian oil expands and investment in Iran's oil sector dries up. Economic sanctions also are inflicting increasing damage on Iran's long-term oil-production potential. Concurrently, Iran is experiencing a currency crisis that could threaten the stability of the regime. The Iranian regime also reports that consumer prices rose more than 40 percent from spring 2010 to spring 2012. Updated data have not been published in recent months, presumably because the data show further hyperinflation. We must exploit this vulnerability. To do so, the president must make full and immediate use of the tools Congress has provided him. Sanctions on Iran's oil industry and banking system are curtailing the foreign partnerships on which Iran's oil industry has relied. Given these trends, it is not unreasonable to contemplate the end of oil exports from Iran, with resulting damage to government finances, foreign exchange earnings and the larger Iranian economy. However, incremental, a la carte implementation of sanctions limits the potential impact on the Iranian regime's ability to pursue its dangerous activities. The effectiveness of these foreign-policy tools has been further undermined by the Obama administration's naive view that if we keep 'talking' to the Iranians and convince them to return to the negotiating table, Iran will stop its drive for nuclear capability." http://t.uani.com/T4KPOF

Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.

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