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Top Stories
AP:
"Hard-line Iranian lawmakers petitioned authorities Tuesday to bar
two prominent presidential contenders - a moderate former president and a
protege of current President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad - from running in next
month's election in a further sign of intense political jockeying over
the final ballot list. The appeal by nearly 100 parliament members
reflects worries over the potential election-swaying influence of
ex-President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei, a
close confident of Ahmadinejad. Both could pull votes from two different
directions - Rafsanjani appealing to reformists and Mashaei favored by
Ahmadinejad's backers - and shift attention away from other potential
front-runners with close ties to the ruling clerics. Mashaei faces an
uphill battle to get his name on the June 14 ballot because of
Ahmadinejad's political feuds with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Rafsanjani, however, is perhaps too venerable to be rejected by the
election overseers known as the Guardian Council, which vets all
candidates and is expected to announce the ballot list next week. In a
pre-emptive move, the pro-establishment lawmakers - accounting for more
than a third of the 290-seat parliament - appealed to the Guardian
Council to knock both from the election race. One of the lawmakers, Javad
Karimi Qodoosi, said they want Rafsanjani barred for supporting the
opposition in the disputed 2009 vote and Mashaei disqualified for his
alleged un-Islamic attitudes." http://t.uani.com/142BPm3
Reuters:
"Iran faces international pressure over its nuclear program in two
separate meetings on Wednesday, but no breakthrough is expected with the
Islamic state focused on next month's presidential election. In Vienna,
the U.N. nuclear agency will once again urge Iran to stop stonewalling
its inquiry into suspected atomic bomb research by Tehran, which denies
any intent to make such arms. The talks started around 10 a.m. (4 a.m.
EDT) at Iran's diplomatic mission in the Austrian capital. 'Differences
remain but we ... are determined to solve these issues,' Herman
Nackaerts, deputy director general of the International Atomic Energy
Agency (IAEA), told reporters. Later over dinner in Istanbul, the
European Union's top diplomat will meet Iran's chief nuclear negotiator -
also now a presidential candidate - to discuss a broader diplomatic
effort bid to resolve a row that could ignite war in the Middle
East." http://t.uani.com/10OKgT4
TradeWinds:
"Greek shipowner Victor Restis has been accused of engaging in
illicit dealings with Iran while serving as chairman of First Business
Bank (FBB). United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), a lobbying group led by
former US ambassador to the United Nations Mark Wallace, claims the
tycoon was involved in the formation of a strategic alliance between FBB
and Iran's Ministry of Petroleum. The allegations, which Restis has
refuted, stem from a letter in which Greek businessman Dimitris Cambis,
who recently landed on the US Treasury Department's blacklist, asked
Restis and FBB CEO Christos Kazantzis to back an Iranian investment
scheme. TradeWinds obtained copies of two documents, including one dated
25 April 2012 and signed by Cambis on the letterhead of Athene Consulting
House in which he requests a meeting aimed at 'initiating and concluding
a strategic agreement' with FBB." http://t.uani.com/142C1S6
Cyber Warfare
Bloomberg:
"A previously unknown hacking group believed to be based in Iran has
started cyber attacks inside the U.S., according to Mandiant Corp., a
security company that's linked China's army to similar activity. The
Iranian group emerged within the last six months and has infiltrated the
networks of at least one U.S. corporation, Richard Bejtlich, Mandiant's
chief security officer, said in an interview in Washington today. 'You're
starting to see the Iranians get more active,' Bejtlich said. 'We've got
at least one case where we think it's Iran, and we think what they are
doing is trying to gain some experience on a live network.'" http://t.uani.com/13l1mUr
Sanctions
Bloomberg:
"South Korea, the world's fifth-largest oil importer, cut crude
shipments from Iran by 51 percent in April from a year earlier, customs
data show. Purchases last month were 507,821 metric tons, compared with
1.04 million tons a year earlier, according to data on the Korea Customs
Service's website today. The volume was 556,658 tons in March, the
figures showed. The April deliveries were equivalent to about 124,000
barrels a day." http://t.uani.com/100VP4J
Domestic
Politics
NYT:
"On Monday, Iran's national deputy police commander, Esmael Ahmadi
Moghaddam, was quoted by the newspaper Shargh as issuing a warning to
President Ahmadinejad and Mr. Mashaei that the 'shedding of blood is
allowed' if they do not stop claiming to take their orders from the
Shiite messiah. The message, wrapped in ideological and religious
wording, is the strongest indication yet that Mr. Ahmadinejad's faction
could be purged, after or even during the elections... Mr. Mashaei, 52,
and Mr. Ahmadinejad have hinted in speeches at a personal relationship
with the Shiite messiah, the 12th imam... Also on Monday, the top editor
of the country's influential state-run newspaper invoked the rallying cry
of a notorious pressure group whose members shout 'Hezbollah Mashallah,'
or 'Well done, Hezbollah,' as they use violence against political opponents.
'If they again have the idea of creating disturbances, they must know
that the devotees, Hezbollah, will not allow them to do so even for a few
hours,' he wrote in a column headlined 'Hezbollah Mashallah,' warning the
two rogue candidates." http://t.uani.com/142CUtY
Foreign Affairs
Reuters:
"Iran on Tuesday defended its election as the rotating chair of the
world's sole multilateral disarmament forum after the United States
announced that its ambassador to the U.N. Conference on Disarmament would
boycott any meeting led by Tehran. The U.N. Conference on Disarmament has
been deadlocked for about 15 years. While the chairmanship of the
Geneva-based body is largely ceremonial, it is a high-profile position...
Erin Pelton, spokeswoman for the U.S. mission to the United Nations, said
on Monday that the selection of Iran was 'unfortunate and highly
inappropriate.' She said countries under U.N. sanctions for arms
proliferation or human rights abuses should be barred from such formal or
ceremonial U.N. posts." http://t.uani.com/12uFfNW
Globe & Mail:
"Canada is boycotting Iran's turn as the rotating chair of the
Conference on Disarmament, the international organization that discusses
disarmament issues. It's a repeat of the walkout tactic that the Harper
Conservatives used against North Korea in 2011 - sitting out the sessions
when a country that Ottawa views as a disarmament scofflaw takes the
gavel. Ottawa argues that Iran 'subverts the fundamental principles' of
the conference by shipping arms to such countries as Syria, Iraq and
Lebanon. Canada acted alone when it boycotted North Korea's presidency
two years ago, but this time the United States says it will skip meetings
chaired by Iran as well." http://t.uani.com/13xdzJa
NYT:
"Rarely, if ever these days, do you hear the United States making
nice with Russia and Iran at the United Nations... A dream team of
American wrestlers is scheduled to face the supreme wrestlers of Iran and
then Russia in the main hall at Grand Central Terminal at 3:30 p.m.
Wednesday - all part of a unified effort to save wrestling as an Olympic
sport... It is not the first such competition. The United States has sent
teams to Iran almost a dozen times, and Iran has reciprocated. In
February, Jordan Burroughs, 24, the American Olympic gold medalist, said
he was mobbed in Tehran by screaming fans when he went for the World Cup.
Even President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad showed up to shake his hand." http://t.uani.com/16zvWQT
Opinion &
Analysis
Mohsen Milani in
Foreign Affairs: "In normal presidential elections,
it is only the candidates and their platforms that matter. Not so in
Iran. There, the key player in the upcoming presidential elections is the
septuagenarian supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who is
constitutionally barred from running for the office. He recognizes that
the election result will have a profound impact on his own rule and on
the stability of the Islamic Republic. So behind the scenes, he has been
doing everything in his power to make sure that the election serves his
interests. But the eleventh-hour declarations of candidacy by Hashemi
Rafsanjani, Iran's president between 1989 and 1997, and by Esfandiar
Rahim Mashaei, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's chief of staff and close
confidant, have made his task more difficult... Mashaei is the easier
case. Ahmadinejad dreams of using him to pull a Putin-Medvedev trick, in
which the latter wins a term as president, lets the former rule from
behind the scenes, and then supports Ahmadinejad's return to power when
the time is right. But things are unlikely to play out that way:
Ahmadinejad has far too many enemies to stay around for long. He was a
'useful idiot' for Khamenei, who, as parliamentarian Ali Motahari has
said, was supported 'as an effective instrument for eliminating Hashemi
[Rafsanjani] and the reformists.' In addition, Mashaei is intensely
disliked by conservatives and Khamenei. He has been vilified for
propagating a 'deviant current,' which supposedly rejects direct rule by
the clerics and champions Iranian nationalism as opposed to Islamism.
Khamenei issued a decree four years ago that prohibited Ahmadinejad from
appointing Mashaei as first vice president. Mashaei, undaunted by the
odds, officially declared his candidacy over the weekend. If the Guardian
Council disqualifies him, that would leave Mashaei with two options: ask
Ahmadinejad to interrupt by postponing the elections or go down quietly,
supporting his other, less known, supporters in the race. Given
Khamenei's stern warnings that he will tolerate no mischief, Ahmadinejad
surely knows that he will be dealt with harshly if he foments trouble.
Khamenei also has to deal with the complex case of Rafsanjani. A seasoned
statesman, the cunning 78-year-old Rafsanjani was close to Ayatollah
Khomeini and has been a friend of Khamenei's since the pre-revolutionary period,
when both men where part of Khomeini's secret network inside Iran.
Khamenei and Rafsanjani engineered Khamenei's selection as supreme leader
after Khomeini died, and the two men worked closely together when
Rafsanjani served as president in the 1990s. Their relationship began to
deteriorate after the 2005 election, when Ahmadinejad defeated
Rafsanjani. Rafsanjani implied that the election had been fraudulent, but
did not pursue the allegation. Ties were weakened further after the 2009
election, when Khamenei declared that he was ideologically closer to
Ahmadinejad than to Rafsanjani; he then accused Rafsanjani of
masterminding the Green Movement and barred him from delivering Friday
prayer sermons. Rafsanjani also lost his position as Chairman of the
Assembly of Experts for Leadership and two of his children were jailed.
As soon as Rafsanjani declared his intention to run in the upcoming
election, he was pressured to back down. Khamenei is right to be worried
about Rafsanjani: Rafsanjani is the only candidate with the prerequisite
skills, vision, savvy, and popular support to pose a serious challenge
should he win the election. He has a developed network of supporters
inside the government, the Revolutionary Guards, and the clerical
establishment. Khatami has endorsed him, and all major reformist
organizations could be expected to support him as well. He has pledged to
moderate Iranian foreign policy and resolve the nuclear impasse. He has
also declared that Iran is 'not at war with Israel,' but would join the
Arabs if they declared war. Finally, he has stated that the legitimacy of
the supreme leader emanates not just from God but also from the will of
people. As part of the smear campaign to discredit Rafsanjani, Khamenei's
older brother labeled the former president 'the best individual for
American conspiracy against the Islamic Republic.' To immunize himself
against such attacks, Rafsanjani declared that he would run only if the
supreme leader did not object -- and, reportedly, he has not. It would be
difficult (although not unfathomable) for the Guardian Council to now
disqualify Rafsanjani. After all, he has consistently held the most
sensitive positions in the Islamic Republic, ranging from acting
Commander of the Armed Forces to Speaker of the Majlis to the
presidency... Should Khamenei's strategy succeed, leaving him with the
president of his choice, he will further consolidate his control of the
government. This will intensify the lingering tensions between the state
and Iran's vibrant civil society, which demands political reform,
accountability, and freedom. With a pliant president, meanwhile, Khamenei
could also indirectly influence the elections for the Assembly of Experts
for Leadership, scheduled for 2014. This body has the power to remove Khamenei
or, in the case of his death, select his successor. A trusted next
president would also guarantee continuity in Khamenei's nuclear strategy
and unwavering support for Syria, his top two priorities. If, however,
Khamenei's strategy does not succeed, and Rafsanjani wins the presidency,
Khamenei's further consolidation of power will become more difficult.
Rafsanjani's victory could help bridge the divide among the elites that
was created after the disputed election of 2009 and that, in turn, could
lead to a slight opening of the political process. It also could increase
the chances for a peaceful resolution of Iran's nuclear dispute with the
West. To be effective, though, Rafsanjani, or whoever wins the
presidency, must ultimately still collaborate with Khamenei. For the time
being, then, Khamenei will remain Iran's final decider, however the
upcoming elections play out." http://t.uani.com/11EmMBS
Michael Miner in
RCW: "Rafsanjani's entry into the election posits
two important questions that merit serious consideration. First, would
Rafsanjani not have entered the election if he did not have the blessing
of Khamenei? That is unlikely, as far too much of his wealth and power is
tied into the system to upset the delicate balance of power between two
of the most influential political families in Iran. Secondly, is it
possible Khamenei consented to such a scenario in the interest of
maintaining the status quo? Many, would argue just the opposite -- that
Rafsanjani and the reformists who will support him, including former
President Mohammad Khatami, pose a threat to the system. Contrary to that
notion, the fervent supporters of Ahmadinejad's ally Esfandiar Rahim
Mashaei pose the gravest threat to a carefully orchestrated political
order. Khamenei may tacitly support Rafsanjani not out of the hope that
he will win, but that he will at least keep the secular nationalists at
bay. Should he actually win, the interests of those whom first
established the Islamic Republic would be well looked after, and
especially the powerful clerical establishment who cemented their
authority with the constitutional referendum of 1989. Political intrigue
and heated debate will bring domestic politics to the fore of discussion
among Iranians in the coming month. The mainstream narrative suggests
Rafsanjani has shaken up the political landscape and will represent a
major challenge for hardliners loyal to Khamenei and the system. The
question Iranians must ask themselves is: just how shaken up could it
possibly be?" http://t.uani.com/YVKZlq
Omid Djalili in
The Guardian: "Today is the fifth anniversary of the
unjust imprisonment of seven Bahá'í leaders in Iran. They were jailed for
20 years for no reason other than their beliefs - the longest jail terms
handed down against any prisoners of conscience in the country - and
today I'm sending a message to Iran: even five years are too many. A
global campaign is under way to remind Iran that it has legal and moral
obligations to treat its religious minorities with justice - the Five
Years Too Many campaign. But for decades Iran has walked all over the
human rights of its citizens. The persecution of religious minorities is
at the heart of this violence. Iran's religious minorities are arrested
on fatuous charges, endure trials that violate the state's own due
process, are jailed on unproven convictions and tortured in prison.
Converts from Islam are branded apostates. Homes, businesses and places
of worship are raided and torn apart. Students are kicked out of
university because of their beliefs. And cemeteries are desecrated so not
even the dead can escape. And yet Iran is signed up to international
treaties and covenants on human rights; the government has broken its
bond. The abuse hits other religious minorities, too - the Yarsan Kurds;
Gonabadi Dervishes, who are Shia Muslims; and Christians. The seven
Bahá'í leaders - Fariba Kamalabadi, Jamaloddin Khanjani, Afif Naeimi,
Saeid Rezaie, Mahvash Sabet, Behrouz Tavakkoli and Vahid Tizfahm - were
held for months without charge after their 2008 arrest and were finally
subjected to a series of trials that made a mockery of justice. Ministry
of Intelligence agents had cameras in the courtroom but international
observers and family members were barred from the proceedings. And yet
the Bahá'í leaders have not languished in prison. Mahvash Sabet has
written poetry inside her Evin cell, now published in English. Roxana
Saberi, the Iranian-American journalist made famous in 2009 because of
her unjust incarceration in Iran, shared a prison cell with Sabet and Kamalabadi.
'They showed me what it means to be selfless, to care more about one's
community and beliefs than about oneself,' Saberi later said of the two
women. But the seven are living a daily grind of deprivation, overcrowded
prison cells and exposure to the abuse of their captors. They have 15
years to go. The eldest among the seven, Khanjani, is 80 years old. His
wife of more than 50 years passed away after his incarceration - he was
unable to see her a final time or attend the funeral." http://t.uani.com/16zvZMI
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Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against
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