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Top Stories
AP:
"The head of Iran's constitutional watchdog says it may disqualify
candidates in June presidential elections who seek full relations with
the United States. Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, secretary of the Guardian
Council that vets candidates, said Friday on state radio that some
nominees may hope that international sanctions over Tehran's disputed
nuclear program will end if the country restores relations with the U.S.
'Indeed, we should laugh at this comment,' said Jannati. 'If somebody has
such a viewpoint, is it possible to approve him or to vote for
him?'" http://t.uani.com/13AXlPs
FT:
"Iran's top nuclear negotiator, who is a leading candidate in the
forthcoming presidential contest, has pledged to use his experience in
talks with major powers to pursue the same policy of resistance to
western demands if he is elected. In an interview with the Financial
Times, Saeed Jalili, the most prominent among a group of candidates in
the June poll who are close to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's supreme
leader, said he would apply a policy of 'progress, justice and
resistance' as president, insisting that international sanctions imposed
over Iran's nuclear programme could be circumvented. 'My understanding is
that the more we rely on our religious and internal principles, the more
we can create the capacity to pursue the path of progress and the more we
can resist [pressure from outside opponents of the regime],' he said in
his first interview since announcing his candidacy." http://t.uani.com/13srVah
WT:
"Intelligent and confident, Parisa, 23, is from what could be
loosely termed a middle-class family and has a bachelor's degree in
computer engineering from Islamic Azad University. On weekends, she sells
her body for profit on the streets of North Tehran. 'I'm a lot of fun. My
time is very valuable,' says Parisa, a diminutive computer technician
using a pseudonym to shield her identity. She is part of a new phenomenon
here - young, educated and independent women becoming occasional,
part-time prostitutes - driven by the Islamic republic's weakened
economy... A wealthy male neighbor of Parisa's expressed outrage at the
economic situation. 'Our girls are selling themselves on the streets! You
never saw this five or six years ago,' he said. 'And all [Supreme Leader
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei] can talk about is the nuclear program. What
nuclear program? Some Russian-built antique that's been sitting there
doing nothing for 30 years?'" http://t.uani.com/10CIVcb
Nuclear Program
CSM:
"Saeed Jalili, Iran's chief nuclear negotiator and a presidential
candidate, says that offers from six world powers demand far more
short-term sacrifices of his government than the Islamic Republic
considers reasonable or reciprocal. The current offer from the so-called
P5+1 group (the US, Russia, China, Britain, France, and Germany) requires
Iran to suspend all 20 percent uranium enrichment, disable an impregnable
underground enrichment facility at Fordow, and agree to more intrusive
inspections, before modest relief from sanctions that have crippled its
economy. 'Their proposals are unbalanced,' Mr. Jalili told The Christian
Science Monitor in an Istanbul interview today, a day after his
inconclusive meeting with Catherine Ashton, the EU foreign policy chief
who leads negotiations for the P5+1. 'The other party needs to appreciate
that they need to table proposals that have the necessary balance,' says
Jalili. 'If they accept to do so, then we can engage in talks that will
hopefully bring about that required balance.'" http://t.uani.com/12AdoMc
Sanctions
Reuters:
"India's Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals (MRPL) plans to begin
processing oil from Iraq and Latin America from next year, helping the
state-owned refiner to partly offset Iranian supplies choked off by
pressure from western sanctions. MRPL, Iran's top Indian client till
about a year ago, halted imports from Tehran in April after local
insurers said they will not settle claims at plants using the oil as
sanctions against Iran's disputed nuclear programme discourage global
reinsurers from taking on the risk... India imported 26.5 percent less
oil from Iran in the fiscal year ended on March 31, 2013." http://t.uani.com/16q6wpn
Commerce
Economic Times of
India: "Another door has opened for two of India's
biggest exports, automobiles and pharmaceuticals, with Iran agreeing to
source these from here to help New Delhi settle payment for oil imports
in rupees. The two countries had agreed to settle bilateral trade in
rupees after it became difficult for India to route payments to Iran
because of the sanctions. However, the mechanism failed to take off as
the trade was heavily in favour of Iran - India exported goods worth
$3.36 billion in 2012-13 while its imports were $ 11.6 billion --
prompting New Delhi to look for more items to sell to the country...
Under the rupee arrangement, India makes part payment into a rupee
account maintained with UCO Bank. Iran uses this account to import goods
from India, reducing the need for routing dollar payments through third
country." http://t.uani.com/1090vZS
Syrian Uprising
Reuters:
"Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Iran must take part in
a proposed international conference to end Syria's civil war, but that
Western states wanted to limit the participants and possibly predetermine
the outcome of the talks. Conflicting comments from Russia and the West
over Iran's role in the possible meeting have added to disagreements
which already threaten to derail the conference proposed by Moscow and
Washington last week. 'Among some of our Western colleagues, there is a
desire to narrow the circle of external participants and begin the
process from a very small group of countries in a framework which, in
essence, would predetermine the negotiating teams, agenda, and maybe even
the outcome of talks,' Lavrov said in an interview posted on the Foreign
Ministry website on Thursday." http://t.uani.com/14bGKAU
Human Rights
MLive:
"Family members of Amir Hekmati, a Flint man jailed in Iran nearly
two years, are hearing there's a good chance his case will be taken up by
Iranian courts again, a sign the imprisoned man could be a step closer to
freedom. The 29-year-old Hekmati's sister, Sarah Hekmati, was in
Washington, D.C., this week meeting with Livia Leu Agosti, the Swiss
ambassador to Tehran. The Swiss represent U.S. interests in Iran, a
country the United States has not had diplomatic relations with since
1980. The Swiss ambassador indicated that Iranian officials seem
interested in revisiting Hekmati's case, Sarah Hekmati said Thursday, May
16. 'She felt like the fact that he went from a death sentence to now an open-ended
case was good news,' Sarah Hekmati said. Hekmati, a former Marine, has
been incarcerated since 2011 under suspicion of being an American spy. He
was sentenced to death, but an appellate court overturned his original
death sentence because of insufficient evidence. The family hoped then
that he would be released soon." http://t.uani.com/14wLoJq
Domestic
Politics
LAT:
"Iranians must wait until next week to find out who will be on the
ballot in next month's presidential election, a key electoral panel said
Thursday, as it continued to mull the fate of two prospective candidates
who have shaken up the race. The Guardian Council, which vets office
seekers, said it needed an extension until Tuesday to judge the
suitability of the nearly 700 presidential aspirants. A council official
told reporters that 10 or more candidates may be approved, a relatively
high number that could make it difficult for one to win a majority
without a runoff election. The delay had been expected, but it also
prolonged the suspense for people newly enthused about the June 14
balloting after the eleventh-hour sign-up of two well-known figures:
former President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, long a fixture in Iranian
politics, and Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei, top aide to outgoing President
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who cannot seek a third term under Iranian
law." http://t.uani.com/16DZqgB
Foreign Affairs
AFP:
"Iran's firebrand President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will address a forum
on water security in Thailand next week, an embassy official said on
Friday, just weeks before he stands down from the post. His scheduled
appearance in the northern Thai city of Chiang Mai from Sunday comes as
Iran gears up for elections and as world powers press the Islamic
republic over its suspected nuclear program and support for the Syrian
regime. Ahmadinejad, who is constitutionally barred from seeking a third
straight term in next month's polls, is set to join regional leaders at
the Asia-Pacific Water Summit, which will focus on water security and
climate change. 'He will arrive on Sunday (May 19) in Chiang Mai,' an
Iranian embassy official in Bangkok told AFP, requesting anonymity."
http://t.uani.com/14wLy3r
Fox News:
"The loudest voice railing against the Iranian regime from North
America is Canada's. The conservative administration of Prime Minister
Stephen Harper has taken a hard-line stance against Iran as the Islamic
Republic's June elections approach, mounting a social media campaign
aimed at toppling Iran's theocratic rulers and leveling unusually harsh
rhetoric at Tehran. Canada, which has an Iranian population of more than
100,000, pulled its diplomatic presence from Iran in September 2012, a
move the U.S. made back in 1979, amid the hostage crisis. 'The regime is
hollow,' Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird said in a recent
appeal to Iranians to vote out the regime. 'It does not have the depth,
the intellect, the humanity, or the humility to bring about a better
future for its people. I believe the Iranian people want change.'" http://t.uani.com/10JW6t4
Opinion &
Analysis
Ray Takeyh in FT:
"The race to succeed Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad as Iran's president is
infused with intrigue and drama. The various political groups are busy
promoting their candidates, consolidating their lists and establishing
their platforms. Lest anyone confuse Iran's contest for real democracy,
the regime has ample mechanisms at its disposal to ensure the
"election" of its preferred candidate. Ultimately, the decision
about who will govern is likely to be made in the Islamic Republic's back
rooms rather than its voting booths. Still, two very different
candidates, the old revolutionary Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and the
anti-establishment Esfandiar Rahim-Mashaei, perceive that they can
somehow upend the system. Since his ascension to the post of supreme
leader in 1989, Ayatollah Khamenei has insisted that the mission of the
state is to uphold religious values and prevent popular pressures from
altering its autocratic structures. He has always hoped that Iran will be
manned by politicians who yield to his judgment without undue protest,
share his dogmatic values and view him as the ultimate arbiter of all
their debates. He was offered no such deference either by the elders of
the revolution or by reformers such as Mohammad Khatami, who occupied the
presidency for eight tumultuous years. In his search for an obedient
protégé, the ayatollah even empowered the little-known Mr Ahmadi-Nejad
only to face another challenge to his authority. Iran's most
consequential voter has clear standards for the next president - he has
to adhere unquestioningly to the ayatollah's dictates. For much of the
past year, the presidential script seemed to be playing itself out in a
predictable manner. An unimpressive roster of second-tier ministers,
parliamentarians and mayors were lining up for the prize of the
presidency. And then came the actual registration period and the entrance
of two seemingly unpredictable candidates. The politician who has
generated the most excitement in western chancelleries is Mr Rafsanjani.
This is not unusual for a man nicknamed 'shark', as he has always been
more popular in western capitals than on the streets of Tehran. Given his
pedigree as a politician present at the creation of the Islamic Republic,
his links to the clerical community and his connections to the merchant
class, he is often considered the leader best capable of navigating the
ship of state in turbulent waters. However, the entire western reading of
Mr Rafsanjani is predicated on an incomplete understanding of his tenure
in power. As president he sensed the need for change but when confronted
with conservative resistance he quickly retreated and abandoned his own
declared principles. He articulated the imperative of development, yet
proved reluctant to build an efficient state. He called for a pragmatic
foreign policy yet remained devoted to terrorism as an instrument of
statecraft. The father of Iran's bomb did much to reconstitute the
nuclear programme while speaking the language of moderation... It
is difficult to suggest at this stage whom Ayatollah Khamenei will anoint
as the next president. He may yet settle on his nuclear negotiator Saeed
Jalili, who is known to be slavishly devoted to the supreme leader, a
stern ideologue and a man of limited intelligence. In the deformed
political society that Ayatollah Khamenei has created, such
qualifications constitute ideal credentials for promotion to the office
of the presidency." http://t.uani.com/15T2Z36
Daniel Nisman in
CSM: "In the past half-century, earthquakes have
directly contributed to the overthrow of at least two authoritarian
regimes in Nicaragua and Iran. By exposing government corruption and
incompetency, earthquakes wield the ability to inflict political damage
to the world's most ironclad regimes with a level of potency matched only
by their unpredictability. As EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton
and Iran's chief negotiator Saeed Jalili meet in Turkey today to continue
working toward an agreement on Iran's nuclear program, the Iranian
leadership should heed history's warning: No nuclear program can save a
regime from a toppling earthquake. In 1972, a powerful earthquake
devastated Nicaragua's capital, Managua, setting off a chain reaction of
public discontent that eventually led to the ousting of the notoriously
corrupt Somoza dynasty. For the Nicaraguan people, President Somoza's
squandering of international emergency aid following the earthquake was
the last straw in a series of blatantly corrupt moves that showed little
regard for their wellbeing. The second instance occurred in September
1978 in Iran, when a 7.7 magnitude earthquake killed more than 26,000
near the eastern city of Tabas. The dismal response of the equally
corrupt shah pushed Iran's already bubbling popular uprising to a boiling
point, one month after the CIA made its historically erroneous assessment
that the country was 'not in a revolutionary or even pre-revolutionary
situation.' As the Somozas and the shah can attest from their resting
place in history's dustbin, earthquakes are much more than nature's most
destructive physical force. Since the ayatollahs took power in 1979, more
than 78,000 Iranians have died in hundreds of powerful earthquakes. The
vast majority of those killed were crushed by their own poorly
constructed homes, with earthquakes flattening entire villages in Iran's
neglected and impoverished rural areas in several instances. Although the
entirety of Iran's territory sits on one of the most seismically active
areas in the world, it ranks far lower than countries like Japan, Chile,
and Turkey in terms of average earthquake magnitude and frequency. And
yet, the scale in which seismic events translate into humanitarian and
economic disasters in Iran is staggering. This is due primarily to the
wanton mismanagement and underfunding of the government's disaster relief
programs and earthquake preparedness measures, which in other nations
have a proven ability to save countless lives. While Iran's seismic
reality cannot be altered, the region's political and economic tectonic
plates are shifting against the ayatollahs' favor. The potential damage -
both political and physical - of another powerful earthquake will only
multiply as Iran's economy deteriorates and the government's budget
buckles. Currently an estimated 2 percent of the country's expenditure is
devoted to disaster relief. This amount will be further expected to
dwindle under the weight of international sanctions, President Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad's irresponsible subsidy policies, and untold corruption
throughout Iran's ruling class. These factors have already caused tremors
of public discontent among the middle class." http://t.uani.com/13AZQRT
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Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against
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