Wednesday, May 8, 2013

Eye on Iran: Iran Warns of Regional Chaos in Post-Assad Era










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Reuters: "Iran's foreign minister warned on Tuesday of unforeseeable consequences if Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was toppled and said only a political settlement to Syria's civil war would avoid a regional conflagration. Shi'ite Muslim Iran is Assad's closest ally and has provided money, weapons, intelligence and training for his forces against a mainly Sunni Muslim uprising in which more than 70,000 people have been killed in two years, by a U.N. estimate. 'God forbid, if there is any vacuum in Syria, these negative consequences will affect all countries ... No one knows what will happen,' Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi told reporters during a rare visit to Jordan." http://t.uani.com/10ikd0J

WashPost: "Not just anyone is allowed to become president of Iran. But just about anyone can sign up to be considered, and the dozens of candidates who lined up to do so in Tehran on Tuesday offered a window into the uncertainty and confusion surrounding an election that is just six weeks away. By the end of the day, 62 Iranians had registered to become candidates, and hundreds more are expected by the time the process closes Saturday. But in the end, no more than a handful will appear on the ballot, with the approval power vested in an appointed council that reflects the will of Iran's supreme leader. Some would-be long shots say the proceedings offer an opportunity to be close to power - and to test how willing the country's clerical establishment may be to tolerate non-mainstream figures." http://t.uani.com/10GfYf7

Guardian: "Iran started its six-week search for a new president on Tuesday as candidates began to register for an election that will mark the end of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's turbulent period in office... Under Iranian law, Ahmadinejad cannot run for a third term but he is widely suspected to be grooming his close confidant and chief of staff, Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei, as a possible successor as part of a plan for a Putin/Medvedev-style reshuffle... Conservatives widely predict that Mashaei will be rejected by the guardian council if he enters the race, while others say Ahmadinejad will fight to the end should that happen. Khamenei this week strongly warned officials against any plans to postpone the June elections." http://t.uani.com/16YeIwu
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Sanctions

FT: "As the US and European Union tighten sanctions on Iran, a lucrative cross-border industry of smuggling fuel and goods has emerged, bolstered by a sharp drop in the value of the Iranian currency. Fuel, especially diesel, is being moved illegally out of the country through cities bordering Afghanistan, Pakistan and Turkey, says Alireza Zeighami, deputy oil minister for refining and distribution. Illegal trade is blossoming in both directions. Iran's neighbours export basic electrical appliances and the latest fashions at a mark-up, while oil-rich Iran offers diesel and other products that it can sell at a higher price just across the border. Between 7m-10m litres of petrol and diesel are smuggled out every day, according to Iranian state media. Analysts are attributing a 7 per cent rise in fuel consumption to an increase in smuggling activity. Diesel is priced at 3,500 rials (14 cents) a litre but smugglers can sell it at about seven to 10 times more to Iran's neighbours." http://t.uani.com/11SrVkw

Syrian Uprising

AFP: "Iran's Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi held talks with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad on Tuesday and said it was time to dissuade Israel from carrying out attacks such as its air strikes on Syria over the past week. 'The time has come to dissuade the Israeli occupier from carrying out such aggression against the peoples of the region,' he said, quoted by Syrian television after his arrival in Damascus on a previously unannounced visit. 'Iran stands at the side of Syria in the face of Israeli aggression, whose aim is to damage the security of the region and weaken the axis of resistance,' said Salehi, whose country is a close ally of Damascus." http://t.uani.com/17LBNQY

Human Rights

AP: "An ex-Marine incarcerated in Iran for nearly two years says in the first letters written to family in Michigan that he is praying for his ailing father and that his grieving mother should not come visit him. Amir Hekmati's sister Sarah Hekmati told The Associated Press Tuesday that receiving the letters has been 'very emotional' for her family, particularly their father, who suffers from brain cancer. 'It's the first time ... we have had any kind of written communication,' she said. 'The letters speak volumes.' The letters don't offer details about Amir Hekmati's condition, but the 29-year-old wrote that he is doing well and hopes to see them soon in Michigan." http://t.uani.com/YFa1F9

Fox News: "Religious freedom is in short supply in the Middle East, according to the bipartisan U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom, which has issued a report finding Iran chief among the nations where spiritual beliefs can bring prison sentences or worse. The commission, which reports to President Obama, named several nations including Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, North Korea and China. But it singled out Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the theocratic state's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei for their harsh crackdown on non-Islamic religions. 'Since becoming president, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has called for an end to the development of Christianity in Iran,' noted the report in its section on the Iranian regime's gutting of Christian freedoms." http://t.uani.com/13ygrok

AFP: "Five years after seven Bahai leaders were arrested in Iran, members of the faith are campaigning to increase attention to their plight in hopes that authorities will release them. The seven informal leaders of the Bahai faith, which has no clergy, were arrested in 2008 and given 20-year prison terms. The religion was founded in Iran in the 19th century and is anathema to the Islamic clerical regime. Rainn Wilson, an actor best known for his role in the US version of the television series 'The Office,' said that the seven Bahais were only seeking to return home to their families." http://t.uani.com/11iKDXD

Reuters: "A senior Iranian diplomat linked to Iran's reformists has been detained for nearly two months and is in solitary confinement at Evin Prison, a facility rights advocates have criticized for prisoner abuse, sources told Reuters on Tuesday. Bagher Asadi, who was previously a senior diplomat at Iran's U.N. mission in New York and was most recently a director at the secretariat of the so-called D8 group of developing nations in Istanbul, was arrested in mid-March in the Iranian capital, sources said last week on condition of anonymity. 'He is being held in solitary confinement in Evin Prison,' a source told Reuters, adding that it was still unclear what the grounds were for his detention. Iran's judiciary and Foreign Ministry have confirmed the 61-year-old Asadi's arrest but given no details as to why he was being held. The sources who spoke to Reuters about Asadi's detention say it may be linked to Iran's June 14 presidential election." http://t.uani.com/16Y6ULe

Reporters Without Borders: "Reporters Without Borders condemns the reinforcement of Iran's system of Internet filtering and blocking. Use of the leading VPN censorship circumvention tools such as Kerio and OpenVPN has been blocked since 4 May, making it very difficult for Iranians to access an unfiltered Internet. The blocking is being compounded by arrests of netizens such as Ali Ghazali, the editor of the Baztab Emrooz news website, who has been held for the past three days." http://t.uani.com/15GhKFW

Opinion & Analysis

Mehdi Khalaji in WINEP: "On May 12, Iran's Guardian Council will begin deliberations on which candidates can participate in the June presidential election, perhaps the most important step in selecting Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's successor. The uncertainty regarding the outcome, coupled with the regime's repeated claims that nuclear sanctions are intended to hurt the people, gives Washington ample room to criticize the highly controlled electoral process and call for a more open and democratic Iran. To be considered for this year's election, all presidential aspirants must file by May 11. The Guardian Council -- a powerful body with twelve members, six of whom are directly appointed by the Supreme Leader -- then decides which candidates are permitted to run based on its subjective judgment of their qualifications. The results of that process will be announced on May 16. Those disqualified can ask the council to reconsider; any such appeals would be decided by May 23. On June 14, elections will be held for president, municipal council seats, and two vacant seats in the Assembly of Experts, which selects a new Supreme Leader if Ali Khamenei dies. Holding major elections simultaneously helps the regime keep costs down while exploiting the people's interest in local politics to raise turnout for the presidential vote. Hundreds of thousands of candidates have already registered for the municipal elections; here too, the Guardian Council determines who is qualified to run. Simultaneous elections also decrease the chances of a boycott -- reformists and technocrats have applied to run at all levels, so they would have difficulty asking voters to stay home on election day if the Guardian Council disqualifies their presidential candidates but approves their local candidates. Past presidential elections have frequently produced surprising results, and no one is sure how this one will turn out -- at least in terms of which conservative will prevail. If no candidate wins a majority on June 14, a runoff between the top two vote-getters will be held on June 21... Washington should not ignore Iran's presidential election, particularly given the regime's repeated claim that U.S. sanctions aim to hurt the people rather than curb the nuclear program. To rebut such rhetoric, Washington should show its concern for the people's democratic demands. The U.S. government will have two clear opportunities to react to the election. First, once the final list of approved presidential candidates is announced, Washington should criticize Khamenei for letting the Guardian Council disqualify certain figures and intimidate others into staying out of the race. Second, in the likely event that opposition members inside or outside the country accuse the regime of manipulating the voting process, Washington should express concern about the election's legitimacy. Sharp U.S. criticism of the electoral process would pose little risk of hurting the nuclear negotiations, and restraint has proven ineffective in the past -- Washington's relatively muted reaction to the 2009 postelection turmoil failed to improve the regime's negotiating posture then, so there is little sense in remaining quiet now. In contrast, taking a strong stance against electoral manipulation would show the Iranian people that the target of U.S. pressure is the regime, not them. Supporting their calls for democracy and civil rights is the most effective way to neutralize the government's anti-American propaganda. Once the election's trajectory becomes clearer, Washington can turn to the task of assessing how the outcome will affect the nuclear impasse and other crucial issues." http://t.uani.com/15GgO4v

Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.

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