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Top Stories
AFP:
"Iran could face tightened sanctions within months after a US
congressional panel Wednesday adopted a measure targeting the nation's
auto and mining industries as well as its foreign currency reserves. The
House Foreign Affairs Committee unanimously passed the Nuclear Iran
Prevention Act, which would extend existing sanctions to the auto and
mining sectors and allow the US president to subject other Iranian
industries, such as engineering, to similar restrictions. Today's US
sanctions focus on Iran's finance and energy sectors, notably its oil
exports. Six countries and territories -- China, India, Japan, South
Korea, Taiwan and Turkey -- still import Iranian oil, but they have
reduced their imports since 2012, with Washington granting them
exemptions. The new law, should it pass the House and Senate and be
signed by President Barack Obama, would require further reduction of one
million barrels per day over the next year as a condition of the
exemption, amounting to a virtual embargo on Iran's crude exports. 'Now
is the time to snap Tehran's Achilles' heel,' the committee's chairman,
Republican Ed Royce, said after the vote. 'Simply put, without oil
revenue there is no cash for atomic weapons or Hezbollah.' The measure
would also close a loophole in sanctions which the European Union imposed
on Iran's foreign currency reserves by punishing any institution that
serves as an intermediary in facilitating currency conversions for
Tehran." http://t.uani.com/18kCX6e
Reuters:
"Iran is trying to accelerate its uranium enrichment program, a U.N.
nuclear report showed, but experts said it was unclear when Tehran's new
machines could start operating and how efficiently they would work. The
Islamic state's progress in introducing next-generation centrifuges is
closely watched in the West and Israel as it would enable Tehran to speed
up accumulation of material that could be used to build atomic bombs.
Iran denies any such aim. Iran has tried for years to develop centrifuges
more advanced than the erratic 1970s-vintage IR-1 machines it now runs,
but deploying new models has been dogged by technical hurdles and
difficulty in obtaining parts abroad. It is now pressing ahead with
installing a more efficient version known as the IR-2m at its main
enrichment plant near the central town of Natanz, according to the report
by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). It has also put in
place another centrifuge type, the IR-5, for the first time at a research
and development facility at Natanz, joining five others being tested
there, the report issued to member states late on Wednesday said. The
rapid installation of one of them, the IR-2m, at a Natanz production unit
since it started earlier this year indicates that Iran can make such
equipment, at least to some extent, despite tightening sanctions on the
country... The IAEA report said 509 IR-2m centrifuges and empty
centrifuge casings had been installed since February, bringing the total
to nearly 700, none of which were yet operating... If Iran can operate
that many, a 'dangerous threat would develop' as the time needed for a
nuclear bomb breakout bid would drop significantly, said Cliff Kupchan, a
director and Middle East analyst at risk consultancy Eurasia Group. 'In
addition, mastery of a faster machine would make use of a clandestine
facility more attractive, as fewer machines and a smaller facility could
be used to make a bomb,' he said." http://t.uani.com/188dTli
AFP:
"The UN nuclear watchdog's latest report on Iran's nuclear program
marks the 'unfortunate milestone' of a decade of Iranian defiance of the
body, the US State Department said Wednesday. The International Atomic
Energy Agency's director general issued the report Sunday, ten years
after the IAEA's first on the Iranian program in June 2003. 'And in the
past 10 years, Iran has brazenly ignored multiple Board of Governors'
resolutions while advancing its enrichment program in blatant violation
of its international obligations,' State Department spokesman Patrick
Ventrell said... 'As the international community stated previously in
Board of Governors resolutions and statements on Iran, we're going to
continue to hold Iran accountable for its international nuclear
obligations,' Ventrell said." http://t.uani.com/Z2BUFf
Nuclear Program
WashPost:
"Iran has begun paving over a former military site where its
scientists are suspected to have conducted nuclear-weapons related
experiments, according to a new U.N. report, a move that could doom
efforts to reconstruct a critical part of Iran's nuclear history.
Satellite photos of the site, known as Parchin, show fresh asphalt
covering a broad area where suspicious tests were carried out several
years ago, the International Atomic Energy Agency said in an internal
report that was prepared for diplomats. The paving appears to have
occurred within the past few weeks, at time with the United Nations'
nuclear watchdog was meeting with Iranian officials to try to negotiate
access to the site to investigate allegations of secret weapons research.
Iran has repeatedly denied IAEA inspectors entry to the site, and
previous satellite photos have shown a series of efforts to alter it by
razing buildings and even scraping away topsoil around what was once a
chamber used for military explosives testing. U.N. officials believe the
facility may have been used to test a special kind of detonator used in
nuclear explosions." http://t.uani.com/14C9lQj
Reuters:
"Iran is pressing ahead with the construction of a research reactor
that Western experts say could eventually produce plutonium for a nuclear
weapon if Tehran decides to make one, a U.N. report showed on
Wednesday... Western concerns about Iran are focused largely on uranium enrichment
plants at Natanz and Fordow. But experts say the research reactor under
construction near the central town of Arak may also be a proliferation
issue as it could yield plutonium for nuclear arms if the spent fuel were
reprocessed, something Iran says it has no intention of doing. Iran has
transported the reactor vessel - which would contain the fuel - to the
heavy water plant but has not yet installed it, the IAEA report issued to
member states said... 'Once the reactor operates, it could spawn more than
enough weapons-grade plutonium for a bomb per year, should Iran ever
decide to do that,' said nuclear expert Mark Hibbs of the Carnegie
Endowment think-tank, adding Israel 'might be tempted to try to repeat'
what it did in Iraq and Syria." http://t.uani.com/10pz5vq
Sanctions
Reuters:
"A U.S. House of Representatives committee approved legislation on
Wednesday seeking to impose tighter sanctions on Iran, the latest
congressional effort to slow development of the Islamic Republic's
disputed nuclear program. The 'Nuclear Iran Prevention Act of 2013'
passed the House Foreign Affairs Committee by a unanimous voice vote and
is expected to easily pass the full 435-member chamber, where it already
has about 340 co-sponsors. A vote by the Republican-controlled House is
likely within the coming weeks. The measure seeks to cut Iran's oil
exports to less than 500,000 barrels a day, limit Tehran's access to
foreign currency and expand the list of blacklisted sectors of Iran's
economy. Sponsors called it the strongest sanctions package ever against
Iran's nuclear program... There is not yet a companion Senate bill to the
House measure, but the Democratic-led Senate voted 99-0 - with one
senator not present - later on Wednesday on a resolution urging Obama to
strengthen enforcement of existing sanctions on Iran. The measure also
resolved that the United States should support Israel if it were forced
to defend itself from an Iranian nuclear threat." http://t.uani.com/Z2C13u
Reuters:
"Metals swap deals with Iran by Switzerland-based commodities giants
Glencore Xstrata and Trafigura could have been a way of skirting
international sanctions against Tehran over its nuclear program,
according to a confidential U.N. Panel of Experts report seen by Reuters
on Wednesday. Reuters reported on March 1 that Glencore had supplied
thousands of tons of alumina to an Iranian firm that has provided
aluminum to Iran's nuclear program, an allegation Glencore confirmed as
accurate. Afterward, Trafigura acknowledged it had also traded with the
same Iranian firm. Swiss authorities said at the time that they saw no
evidence of U.N. or Swiss sanctions violations by Glencore, but the U.N.
experts, who monitor compliance with the Iran sanctions regime, raised
the possibility that the swap deals were a means of flouting restrictions
on trade with Iran. 'If confirmed, such transactions may reflect an
avenue for procurement of a raw material in a manner that circumvents
sanctions,' the 49-page report said in reference to the media reports on
the swap deals. 'The companies involved have stated that they have halted
those transactions.'" http://t.uani.com/12vJC9I
Reuters:
"South Korea will receive a shipment of Iranian liquefied petroleum
gas (LPG) for the first time since imports were halted last October due
to European sanctions that made it difficult to get shipping insurance,
sources said on Thursday. South Korean LPG importer E1 Corp bought 33,000
tonnes of propane and 11,000 tonnes of butane that were loaded on Monday
at an Iranian port, two company sources said. One of the sources said
there had been no Iranian LPG shipments since last October, although
customs data has shown tonnage that the company has moved out from bonded
areas. E1 stored Iranian LPG imported before sanctions in its tanks in bonded
areas before clearing customs, added the source, who declined to be
identified as he was not authorised to speak to media. 'This time the
deal was possible as Iran offered shipment, but it is hard for us to
predict if this can continue,' he said." http://t.uani.com/13NvETs
June 14
Elections
Reuters:
"Former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani has accused Iran's
leadership of incompetence and ignorance just days after he was barred
from standing in an election next month, the opposition Kaleme website reported
on Thursday. Rafsanjani's comments appeared to add to the political
conflict between those loyal to the leadership and opposition groups who
have been marginalized since post-election unrest in 2009. 'I don't think
the country could have been run worse, even if it had been planned in
advance,' Rafsanjani said to members of his campaign team on Wednesday,
according to the Kaleme report. 'I don't want to stoop to their
propaganda and attacks but ignorance is troubling. Don't they understand
what they're doing?'" http://t.uani.com/12PLjk7
TIME:
"'They're trying to do the election this time completely different
from 2009,' says Takeyh. Security has been stepped up, and the Internet
slowed down. 'What they want to do is get through this electoral cycle with
maximum degree of public apathy.' The field of candidates should help
there. The Leader's reported favorite is Saeed Jalili, who before heading
the negotiating team on Iran's nuclear program ran Khamenei's office.
Also approved to run was former Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Velayati,
Tehran Mayor Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, former nuclear negotiator Hassan
Rowhani, and former parliament speaker and Khamenei son-in-law Gholam Ali
Haddad-Adel. It is a not a diverse field. As the screening of candidates
has grown more exacting, the base of Iranian politics has narrowed to a
thinness that analysts describe as perilous. The press, which a decade
ago was still lively, now reflects a political spectrum running from A to
B: 'Principlists' square off against 'traditional conservatives.'
Everyone else is on the outside peering in. 'The smaller the circle
becomes, the worse the legitimacy,' says Javedanfar, who lectures on Iran
at the Interdisciplinary Center north of Tel Aviv. 'There's also the fact
that those who are in are not the sharpest tools in the box.'" http://t.uani.com/12xFHcA
Reuters:
"Iran's clerical rulers may have sought to remove any challenge to
their grip by barring two vivid contenders from next month's presidential
election, but they risk alienating voters already disillusioned by the
violent aftermath of the 2009 poll. The June 14 vote will have little
bearing on the policies that have long put Iran at odds with the West -
ranging from its nuclear program to its support for Syria's President
Bashar al-Assad and Lebanon's Shi'ite Hezbollah guerrillas. These will
remain firmly under the control of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei,
who has refused to curb sensitive atomic work despite crippling Western
sanctions and Israeli and U.S. threats of military action. Iran denies
seeking nuclear weapons. Yet Iran's rulers have always seen a high
election turnout, as underpinning their legitimacy - hence the danger of
voiding them of any credibility in the eyes of voters by using the many
institutional levers available to limit free democratic choice." http://t.uani.com/12VDsR0
FT:
"Iran's business community has reacted with shock to Tehran's
decision to bar former president Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani from running in
next month's presidential poll, seeing it as a blow to the possibility of
reform for the beleaguered economy... Iran's economy has been struggling
due to international sanctions that have helped fuel inflation, which has
been officially put at 32.2 per cent though many believe it is much
higher. The result has been a declining purchasing power for many
ordinary Iranians and an increasingly complex business climate... 'Since
this morning, I hear businessmen making comments like Shall we give up
business? Or Should we leave the country?' said Mohammad-Reza Behzadian,
a former head of Tehran Chamber of Commerce. 'Before [the
disqualification of Mr Rafsanjani] businessmen were thinking of
feasibility studies, exports and expansion of business while foreign
partners were calling to see how serious Mr Rafsanjani's candidacy was,'
he added." http://t.uani.com/1abmwbs
JTA:
"Two suspects in the bombing of the AMIA Jewish center in Buenos
Aires are candidates in Iran's presidential election. Mohsen Rezai and
Ali Akbar Velayati, who are believed to have planned the 1994 attack,
were among the eight candidates approved Tuesday for the June 14 election
by Iran's Guardian Council to succeed Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. The Iranian
constitution bars Ahmadinejad from seeking re-election. Rezai is under an
international arrest warrant, or red notice, from the Interpol
international police agency. Argentina has accused the Iranian government
of directing the bombing, which killed 85 and injured 300, and the
Lebanon-based terror group Hezbollah of carrying it out. No arrests have
been made in the case. Six Iranians have been on Interpol's most wanted
list since 2007 in connection with the bombing, including the current
defense minister, Gen. Ahmed Vahidi." http://t.uani.com/188a7IJ
Syrian Civil
War
WSJ:
"The top foreign-policy officials of 11 Western and Arab countries
denounced the militant group Hezbollah and fighters from Iran for
intervening in recent fighting in the Syrian civil war, calling in a
formal statement Wednesday for their removal from the country. The
foreign ministers, meeting as the Friends of Syria support group for the
Syrian opposition, said the presence of the foreign fighters represents
'a flagrant intervention on Syrian territory and a serious threat to
regional stability.' The countries met as embattled Syrian rebels
struggled to hold off a fierce government advance in the strategic town
of Qusayr. There, government tanks and artillery backed by fighters with
Hezbollah and what U.S. officials described as Iranian advisers or
fighters, pounded areas long held by the Syrian opposition. The officials
of the 11 countries singled out Hezbollah fighters in Qusayr as well as
'fighters from Iran' in a formal statement issued at the end of the
session. The group consists of the U.S., U.K., France, Germany, Italy, Egypt,
Saudi Arabia, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Jordan, which
hosted the meeting and is struggling with hundreds of thousands of Syrian
refugees fleeing the fighting." http://t.uani.com/1abr4ys
Human Rights
Fox News:
"The American pastor jailed in Iran for his Christian faith has
managed to get a letter out to his global supporters, thanking them for
their prayers while confirming the brutality of his conditions. Saeed
Abedini, the 33-year-old Idaho resident serving an eight-year prison term
in Tehran's infamous Evin prison, passed the letter to family members who
were permitted to visit him after several weeks of isolation. The letter
was passed to Abedini's wife, Naghmeh, who is at their Boise-area home
with their two children and unable to visit her husband for fear of being
arrested herself." http://t.uani.com/14SCYMJ
Foreign Affairs
AP:
"Bahrain's Interior Ministry says an Iranian drone has been found in
the strategic Gulf kingdom that hosts the U.S. Navy's 5th Fleet. The
statement Wednesday gave no other details. Bahrain has repeatedly accused
Shiite Iran of encouraging the more than 2-year-long uprising in Bahrain
by its majority Shiites. Iran denies it has any direct role." http://t.uani.com/1abr8yc
Opinion &
Analysis
David Albright,
Christina Walrond & Andrea Stricker in ISIS:
"The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) released on May 22,
2013 its latest report on the implementation of NPT safeguards in Iran
and the status of Iran's compliance with Security Council resolutions.
Key Findings:
1) Number of installed IR-1 centrifuges at Natanz Fuel Enrichment Plant
(FEP) continues to increase, but at a slower rate than the last few
reporting periods;
2) The IR-40 heavy water reactor at Arak appears to be nearing completion
with operation expected in the second half of 2014; continued
construction of the IR-40 reactor is in violation of United Nations
Security Council resolutions;
3) New IR-2m advanced centrifuges continue to be installed at the Natanz
FEP; both the number and preparatory work for future installation
increased significantly; however, when they will start enriching or how
well they will operate remains unknown;
4) Number of cascades producing near 20-percent low-enriched uranium
(LEU) is constant;
5) Iran has less than enough 19.75-percent low-enriched uranium
hexafluoride for one nuclear weapon if further enriched to weapon-grade,
but its stock of near 20 percent LEU hexafluoride continues to grow;
6) Almost all of the cascades at the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FFEP)
are now vacuum tested and likely ready for enrichment;
7) Iran continues converting near 20 percent LEU hexafluoride to oxide
form, but not at a sufficient rate to reduce its stock of near 20 percent
LEU hexafluoride. Nonetheless, Iran continues producing fuel for the
Tehran Research Reactor (TRR);
8) Iran is using a Zero Power Reactor near Esfahan and the Tehran
Research Reactor to test IR-40 Arak prototype reactor fuel; and
9) No progress on 'structured approach' to resolve outstanding questions
about military dimensions and no access to Parchin military site, which
Iran continues to sanitize. The Parchin site is now being
asphalted." http://t.uani.com/121cY4Q
Zachary Keck in
The Diplomat: "The U.S. has unsuccessfully tried to
undermine the Islamic Republic for decades. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei
is gradually doing the job himself. Indeed, yesterday's disqualification
of Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei and Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani as presidential
candidates is just the latest manifestation of three interrelated trends
involving Khamenei's tenure as Supreme Leader, which collectively
undermine key tenets of Ruhollah Khomeini's Islamic Republic. Although it
is likely to persist for years and even decades to come, when the history
of the Islamic Republic is finally written, these trends will be seen as
crucial turning points. The first trend is the marginalization of
elections. Although Westerners tend to emphasize the Islamic component of
the Islamic Republic, most Iranians hold the Republican aspect as equally
important. This is evident from, among other things, the traditionally
high voter turnout, from a relative low at nearly 60 percent in the 2005
presidential election, to a considerably higher figure upwards of 85
percent in 2009. Even some parliamentary elections, such as those in
2000, saw voter turnout around 80 percent. By contrast, turnout in U.S.
presidential elections hasn't topped 60 percent since 1968. Voting was
also integral to Khomeini's concept of an Islamic Republic. Not only was
there much less electroral meddling under his leadership; he also held
referendums to approve the Islamic Republic and initial constitution.
Although Iran will continue to hold elections, unlike most of its
neighbors, the votes are becoming much less representative of the Iranian
people. This is principally a reflection of the politicization of the
Guardian Council under Khamenei, a process that began almost immediately
after Khamenei assumed the Supreme Leadership, when he and Rafsanjani
used the Guardian Council to eliminate their rivals in the leftist
Radical faction. Khamenei would later revive the tactic to undercut the
Reformists and, if yesterday is any indication, has only grown more
reliant on it over time. As Karim Sadjadpour, an Iran expert at the Carnegie
Endowment for International Peace, noted wryly, '[It is] increasingly
looking like Iran's presidential election will be one man, one vote. That
one man's name is Ayatollah Khamenei.' The second related trend is the
marginalization of the Iranian elite. Although Ayatollah Khomeini and his
followers in the Islamic Republican Party (IRP) purged other anti-Shah
groups, this still left a relatively diverse group of elites representing
different segments of the body politic. This was deliberate. At any one
time Khomeini would lend his authority to the weakest faction to protect
it. Lacking the personal authority of his predecessor, Khamenei has
always been much less tolerant of different factions and, as noted above,
at times has played an active role in purging them. This tendency has
only accelerated since the 2009 election as Khamenei has sought to
marginalize large swaths of the Reformists, Rafsanjani, and Ahmadinejad.
The primary danger in this, as any student of revolution knows, is that
disillusioned elites - those who feel the system isn't open for their
participation - are a key component of successful political and social
movements. The more disillusioned elites there are within a society, the
more potential revolutionary leaders there are waiting in the wings. This
was inherently understood by Khomeini as well as by the Communist Party
of China who, under President Jiang Zemin, began opening up the party to
the economic elites that Deng Xiaoping's 'reform and opening up' policies
had created. Iranian leaders should be troubled by the fact that their
system has become open to a diminishing number of elites over time.
Besides alienating the elites themselves, their marginalization also
leaves large segments of the population with the sense that they are not
being represented in the political system. This is almost certainly
occurring in Iran already, as the marginalization of the Reformists is
likely to alienate the upper-class 'Westernized' Iranians concentrated in
northern Tehran, whereas fully undermining Ahmadinejad risks alienating
rural and working class Iranians." http://t.uani.com/12ZdTOL
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Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against
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