Thursday, August 14, 2014

Eye on Iran: Iran's Supreme Leader Rules out Broader Engagement with US








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Al-Monitor: "Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei spoke today, Aug. 13, to ambassadors, foreign diplomats and officials from Iran's Foreign Ministry. He welcomed new Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi and said he hoped that Abadi would convene a new government. He also said that while he supports the continuation of the nuclear talks, bilateral talks between the United States and Iran in the nuclear negotiations are not only pointless, but can cause 'harm.' According to Khamenei.ir, in response to President Hassan Rouhani's recent speech in which he said Iran would engage with the world, the supreme leader said, 'There are two exceptions in this: the Zionist regime and America.' He explained, 'Relations with America and negotiations with this country - other than on specific matters - not only do not have any benefit, but have harm. And what wise person would pursue something without benefits?' Ayatollah Khamenei said, 'Some would pretend that if we sit at the negotiation table with America, many of our problems would be solved. But we knew this wasn't so, and the cases of the last year once again proved this reality.' ... Before the speech, Zarif spoke. He thanked the supreme leader for his support and said, 'We are determined to implement in the best way the foreign policy that was designed by the supreme leader.' Under Iran's constitution, the supreme leader has the final say on foreign policy matters, including the nuclear program and nuclear negotiations." http://t.uani.com/1uwDr6K

Trend: "The Iranian economy, including the oil sector, contracted by 1.9 percent in Iranian fiscal year 1392 (March 2013-March 2014), the Central Bank of Iran (CBI) reported. In its latest report, CBI said the Iranian economy, excluding the oil sector, contracted by 1.1 percent, Iran's Mehr news agency reported on Aug. 13. CBI also reported that the Iranian economy contracted by 6.8 percent and 0.9 percent, including and excluding the oil sector respectively, in Iranian year 1391 (March 2012-March 2013)... Mohammad-Ali Najafi, advisor to Iranian president Hassan Rouhani, said on Aug. 9 that Iran's economic growth rate is expected to hit 2 percent and 4 percent in the next two years, and the inflation rate is expected to fall below 15 percent. The World Bank said in June that Iran's GDP will grow by 1.5 percent in 2014." http://t.uani.com/Y8wb3Q

WSJ: "Iran is once again the country posing the largest money-laundering risk, taking the spot back from Afghanistan in the latest edition of the Basel AML Index. The 2014 edition of the index, published by the Basel Institute on Governance, covers more than 160 countries, and said it is the only country-level rating of money laundering and terrorist financing risk by a nonprofit. It added a dozen countries, including Belarus, Myanmar, Sudan and Syria, according to a FAQ." http://t.uani.com/1uwBNCe
   
Sanctions Relief

Reuters: "Switzerland said on Wednesday it would maintain a suspension of sanctions against Iran on trade in precious metals and in petrochemical products until Dec. 12, in light of an agreement between world powers and Teheran to extend negotiations. In a statement, Switzerland's cabinet said it was following the lead of the European Union, which agreed on July 21 to maintain a suspension of sanctions until Nov. 24. The Swiss originally lifted a ban on precious metal trade with Iranian public bodies in January. It has also eased restrictions on trade in petrochemical products, transport of Iranian oil or petroleum products, and the provision of insurance for shipments." http://t.uani.com/1l6bVtX

Human Rights

IHR: "Four prisoners were hanged in two different Iranian prisons, reported the state run Iranian media today. Three of the prisoners were hanged in the prison of Bandar Abbas (Southern Iran) reported the official Iranian news agency IRNA." http://t.uani.com/1uSHOX7

Foreign Affairs

WSJ: "The struggles of the embattled Kurdish Peshmerga to repel Islamist insurgents have put the U.S. and Iran on the same side, with both rushing to reinforce a revered fighting force to defeat a common enemy. U.S. airstrikes this week helped the Peshmerga retake two towns on the outskirts of Erbil that they had lost days earlier in a stunning defeat that put the radical Sunni group Islamic State 20 miles from the capital of the semiautonomous Kurdish region. On Monday, as Peshmerga fighters basked in relief in one of those towns, Makhmour, a reporter witnessed senior Kurdish commanders meeting with Iranian advisers in the operations command center there." http://t.uani.com/1rbpxGL

Fars (Iran): "Iran's Judiciary Chief Sadeq Amoli Larijani described the recent US attacks against the positions of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) as only a tricky plot, and said the terrorist group has been formed by Washington and its allies. 'How can one believe that the US is opposed to the Daesh (the abbreviated name of the ISIL in Arabic and Farsi) Takfiri group? If the Americans really have a problem with Daesh, why haven't they entered the scene since the very first day of its appearance? Why haven't they attacked Daesh in the entire region, especially in Syria,' Amoli Larijani asked, addressing high-ranking judiciary officials in a weekly meeting Tehran on Wednesday. He said the ISIL has been created by the colonial powers, and stressed that the recent US attacks on the terrorist groups' positions in Iraq are, at best, 'suspicious.'" http://t.uani.com/1ox0iNn

Opinion & Analysis

James Jeffrey in WINEP: "The Obama administration appears headed toward a nuclear agreement that will do little more than memorialize the limited Iranian concessions made in last year's Joint Plan of Action (JPOA), at the likely cost of significantly more sanctions relief than called for in the JPOA. This is a bad deal for the United States, but options to improve its terms may not be feasible. It is therefore time to consider an alternative approach not built around a new formal deal with Iran. In his July 29 Senate testimony, Washington Institute fellow Michael Singh diagnosed the JPOA's inadequacies as a check on Tehran's nuclear ambitions and warned of any final 'comprehensive' agreement that simply codifies the JPOA with bells and whistles. As an alternative, he laid out two courses of action -- a much tougher negotiating position that would trade sanctions relief for total cessation of Iranian efforts to enrich uranium, and a JPOA-like final agreement reinforced with evidence that Iran has made a 'strategic shift' and essentially given up its quest for regional hegemony. These alternatives make sense, but if they prove impossible to reach, there are few options left. As Singh pointed out, U.S. military credibility has been weakened, and additional sanctions would require support from both the UN Security Council and key oil-importing states such as China and India... Given the apparent infeasibility of the first five options, U.S. policymakers are likely defaulting to Option 6. This would be wrong. As Singh pointed out, a final agreement based on the JPOA would not only place insufficient limitations on Iran's nuclear program, it would also carry serious geostrategic downsides. Aside from the likelihood of Iranian violations, almost any feasible formal agreement would represent a major defeat for the United States -- in the current global context, a JPOA-like deal would be seen as yielding to Iran and giving hostile states (Iran, Russia, and probably China) more legitimacy within the international system they are attempting to replace. Just as during the Cold War, agreements today must be judged in terms of their larger effects on a less than friendly strategic context. As Institute fellow Dennis Ross wrote on July 30, the Obama administration 'needs to read the new strategic landscape in the region and act accordingly. That landscape should shape our calculus as we approach the larger questions of Israeli-Palestinian peace, Syria, Iraq and Iran...How can it ensure that U.S. friends in the region are stronger in January 2017, and their adversaries (and ours) are weaker?' In that context, any JPOA-like agreement with Iran is dangerous. To be sure, the United States would gain some visibility on Iran's activities through enhanced inspections, and perhaps six months' warning time before the regime could break out to a minimal nuclear weapons capability. In return, however, it would have to lift or suspend many sanctions, formalize Tehran as a security partner, undercut longstanding nonproliferation policy, and effectively give Iran, Russia, and China a precedent to influence U.S. and allied security. Washington would also have to defend a deal whose terms would not much reduce the Iranian nuclear threat." http://t.uani.com/1lXNgCT

Ladan Salami in IranWire: "Qassem Suleimani, the commander of the Revolutionary Guards Quds Force who is known as the point man for Iran's military and covert operations outside its borders, publicly pledged support for Palestinian fighters on July 30. Then he named five specific groups. Some of them are affiliated with Hamas, which has led the fighting in the most recent Gaza war, and some with the even more radical Islamic Jihad. All portray themselves, and are lauded by Iran, as resistance fighters. All are branded by Israel as terrorists. They are: the Qassam Brigades, the Al-Quds Brigades, the Abu Ali Mustapha Brigades, the al-Aqsa Martyrs and the Nasser Salahuddin Brigades. Ok. But who are these resistance groups? What is their relationship with the Islamic Republic? And why the name dropping just now? ... Suleimani's support for these factions-and the implication that this represents the view of the Islamic Republic, too-is a means of reiterating Iran's position on the international stage vis-à-vis Israel. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and senior Iranian political and military figures have all emphasized their support for the Palestinian resistance, not limiting their support to Hamas. By spreading support across the different groups, Iran's leaders may hope to incied a continued war of attrition, providing Iran with significant space to maneuver, both on the international and political stage. Indeed, several reports suggest that the latest Gaza war did not begin with Hamas, but with other groups firing rockets until Israel retaliated and Hamas was forced to join in." http://t.uani.com/1sYaSv2

Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.





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