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Al-Monitor:
"Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei spoke today, Aug. 13,
to ambassadors, foreign diplomats and officials from Iran's Foreign
Ministry. He welcomed new Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi and said
he hoped that Abadi would convene a new government. He also said that
while he supports the continuation of the nuclear talks, bilateral talks
between the United States and Iran in the nuclear negotiations are not
only pointless, but can cause 'harm.' According to Khamenei.ir, in
response to President Hassan Rouhani's recent speech in which he said
Iran would engage with the world, the supreme leader said, 'There are two
exceptions in this: the Zionist regime and America.' He explained,
'Relations with America and negotiations with this country - other than
on specific matters - not only do not have any benefit, but have harm.
And what wise person would pursue something without benefits?' Ayatollah
Khamenei said, 'Some would pretend that if we sit at the negotiation
table with America, many of our problems would be solved. But we knew
this wasn't so, and the cases of the last year once again proved this
reality.' ... Before the speech, Zarif spoke. He thanked the supreme
leader for his support and said, 'We are determined to implement in the
best way the foreign policy that was designed by the supreme leader.'
Under Iran's constitution, the supreme leader has the final say on
foreign policy matters, including the nuclear program and nuclear
negotiations." http://t.uani.com/1uwDr6K
Trend:
"The Iranian economy, including the oil sector, contracted by 1.9
percent in Iranian fiscal year 1392 (March 2013-March 2014), the Central
Bank of Iran (CBI) reported. In its latest report, CBI said the Iranian
economy, excluding the oil sector, contracted by 1.1 percent, Iran's Mehr
news agency reported on Aug. 13. CBI also reported that the Iranian
economy contracted by 6.8 percent and 0.9 percent, including and
excluding the oil sector respectively, in Iranian year 1391 (March
2012-March 2013)... Mohammad-Ali Najafi, advisor to Iranian president
Hassan Rouhani, said on Aug. 9 that Iran's economic growth rate is
expected to hit 2 percent and 4 percent in the next two years, and the
inflation rate is expected to fall below 15 percent. The World Bank said
in June that Iran's GDP will grow by 1.5 percent in 2014." http://t.uani.com/Y8wb3Q
WSJ:
"Iran is once again the country posing the largest money-laundering
risk, taking the spot back from Afghanistan in the latest edition of the
Basel AML Index. The 2014 edition of the index, published by the Basel
Institute on Governance, covers more than 160 countries, and said it is
the only country-level rating of money laundering and terrorist financing
risk by a nonprofit. It added a dozen countries, including Belarus,
Myanmar, Sudan and Syria, according to a FAQ." http://t.uani.com/1uwBNCe
Sanctions Relief
Reuters:
"Switzerland said on Wednesday it would maintain a suspension of
sanctions against Iran on trade in precious metals and in petrochemical
products until Dec. 12, in light of an agreement between world powers and
Teheran to extend negotiations. In a statement, Switzerland's cabinet
said it was following the lead of the European Union, which agreed on
July 21 to maintain a suspension of sanctions until Nov. 24. The Swiss
originally lifted a ban on precious metal trade with Iranian public
bodies in January. It has also eased restrictions on trade in
petrochemical products, transport of Iranian oil or petroleum products,
and the provision of insurance for shipments." http://t.uani.com/1l6bVtX
Human Rights
IHR:
"Four prisoners were hanged in two different Iranian prisons,
reported the state run Iranian media today. Three of the prisoners were
hanged in the prison of Bandar Abbas (Southern Iran) reported the
official Iranian news agency IRNA." http://t.uani.com/1uSHOX7
Foreign Affairs
WSJ:
"The struggles of the embattled Kurdish Peshmerga to repel Islamist
insurgents have put the U.S. and Iran on the same side, with both rushing
to reinforce a revered fighting force to defeat a common enemy. U.S.
airstrikes this week helped the Peshmerga retake two towns on the outskirts
of Erbil that they had lost days earlier in a stunning defeat that put
the radical Sunni group Islamic State 20 miles from the capital of the
semiautonomous Kurdish region. On Monday, as Peshmerga fighters basked in
relief in one of those towns, Makhmour, a reporter witnessed senior
Kurdish commanders meeting with Iranian advisers in the operations
command center there." http://t.uani.com/1rbpxGL
Fars (Iran):
"Iran's Judiciary Chief Sadeq Amoli Larijani described the recent US
attacks against the positions of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant
(ISIL) as only a tricky plot, and said the terrorist group has been
formed by Washington and its allies. 'How can one believe that the US is
opposed to the Daesh (the abbreviated name of the ISIL in Arabic and
Farsi) Takfiri group? If the Americans really have a problem with Daesh,
why haven't they entered the scene since the very first day of its
appearance? Why haven't they attacked Daesh in the entire region,
especially in Syria,' Amoli Larijani asked, addressing high-ranking
judiciary officials in a weekly meeting Tehran on Wednesday. He said the
ISIL has been created by the colonial powers, and stressed that the
recent US attacks on the terrorist groups' positions in Iraq are, at
best, 'suspicious.'" http://t.uani.com/1ox0iNn
Opinion &
Analysis
James Jeffrey in
WINEP: "The Obama administration appears headed
toward a nuclear agreement that will do little more than memorialize the
limited Iranian concessions made in last year's Joint Plan of Action
(JPOA), at the likely cost of significantly more sanctions relief than
called for in the JPOA. This is a bad deal for the United States, but
options to improve its terms may not be feasible. It is therefore time to
consider an alternative approach not built around a new formal deal with
Iran. In his July 29 Senate testimony, Washington Institute fellow
Michael Singh diagnosed the JPOA's inadequacies as a check on Tehran's
nuclear ambitions and warned of any final 'comprehensive' agreement that
simply codifies the JPOA with bells and whistles. As an alternative, he
laid out two courses of action -- a much tougher negotiating position
that would trade sanctions relief for total cessation of Iranian efforts
to enrich uranium, and a JPOA-like final agreement reinforced with
evidence that Iran has made a 'strategic shift' and essentially given up
its quest for regional hegemony. These alternatives make sense, but if
they prove impossible to reach, there are few options left. As Singh
pointed out, U.S. military credibility has been weakened, and additional
sanctions would require support from both the UN Security Council and key
oil-importing states such as China and India... Given the apparent
infeasibility of the first five options, U.S. policymakers are likely defaulting
to Option 6. This would be wrong. As Singh pointed out, a final agreement
based on the JPOA would not only place insufficient limitations on Iran's
nuclear program, it would also carry serious geostrategic downsides.
Aside from the likelihood of Iranian violations, almost any feasible
formal agreement would represent a major defeat for the United States --
in the current global context, a JPOA-like deal would be seen as yielding
to Iran and giving hostile states (Iran, Russia, and probably China) more
legitimacy within the international system they are attempting to
replace. Just as during the Cold War, agreements today must be judged in
terms of their larger effects on a less than friendly strategic context.
As Institute fellow Dennis Ross wrote on July 30, the Obama
administration 'needs to read the new strategic landscape in the region
and act accordingly. That landscape should shape our calculus as we
approach the larger questions of Israeli-Palestinian peace, Syria, Iraq
and Iran...How can it ensure that U.S. friends in the region are stronger
in January 2017, and their adversaries (and ours) are weaker?' In that
context, any JPOA-like agreement with Iran is dangerous. To be sure, the
United States would gain some visibility on Iran's activities through
enhanced inspections, and perhaps six months' warning time before the
regime could break out to a minimal nuclear weapons capability. In
return, however, it would have to lift or suspend many sanctions,
formalize Tehran as a security partner, undercut longstanding
nonproliferation policy, and effectively give Iran, Russia, and China a
precedent to influence U.S. and allied security. Washington would also
have to defend a deal whose terms would not much reduce the Iranian
nuclear threat." http://t.uani.com/1lXNgCT
Ladan Salami in
IranWire: "Qassem Suleimani, the commander of the
Revolutionary Guards Quds Force who is known as the point man for Iran's
military and covert operations outside its borders, publicly pledged
support for Palestinian fighters on July 30. Then he named five specific
groups. Some of them are affiliated with Hamas, which has led the
fighting in the most recent Gaza war, and some with the even more radical
Islamic Jihad. All portray themselves, and are lauded by Iran, as resistance
fighters. All are branded by Israel as terrorists. They are: the Qassam
Brigades, the Al-Quds Brigades, the Abu Ali Mustapha Brigades, the
al-Aqsa Martyrs and the Nasser Salahuddin Brigades. Ok. But who are these
resistance groups? What is their relationship with the Islamic Republic?
And why the name dropping just now? ... Suleimani's support for these
factions-and the implication that this represents the view of the Islamic
Republic, too-is a means of reiterating Iran's position on the
international stage vis-à-vis Israel. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and
senior Iranian political and military figures have all emphasized their
support for the Palestinian resistance, not limiting their support to
Hamas. By spreading support across the different groups, Iran's leaders
may hope to incied a continued war of attrition, providing Iran with
significant space to maneuver, both on the international and political
stage. Indeed, several reports suggest that the latest Gaza war did not
begin with Hamas, but with other groups firing rockets until Israel
retaliated and Hamas was forced to join in." http://t.uani.com/1sYaSv2
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