Emerson
on CNBC Discussing Terror Threats to West by Jihadi Veterans
by Steven Emerson
Interview on CNBC
September 18, 2014
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Host Tyler Mathisen: Authorities in Australia staging the largest
counterterrorism operation in the country's history Thursday to disrupt a
gruesome plan by Islamic militants living in the country to carry out
random public executions or demonstration killings. Australian media
reporting the suspects wanted to kidnap and behead a member of the public
and drape the body in an ISIA flag. Australia just the latest example of
radicalized Islamic militants waging terror from within on the home front.
We've already seen murderous attacks in Belgium and England. Steve Emerson
is an author and executive director of the Investigative Project on
Terrorism and Ghaffar Hussain is a director at Quilliam, a counterterrorism
think tank in London. Welcome to both of you. Mr. Hussein, let me begin
with you. How close a call was this?
Ghaffar Hussain: From what I'm hearing, it was pretty close. The
Australian police intercepted a phone call which suggested that these
individuals, or one individual is a quite high-ranking member of ISIS, and
he had been given instructions to now carry out this attack in response to,
or as a tactical response from the ISIS point of view to the fact that the
Australians are now sending troops to the region to help in the
international effort to defeat isis. So I suppose we're starting to see a
number of things ISIS doing now, all of which are aimed to kind of prevent
or the international coalition which has been a real game changer in
holding back ISIS in Iraq.
Mathisen: Mr. Emerson, react to what Mr. Hussain just said, but
also put in context the idea that the biggest terror threats may now come
from within, not from without, and who are these people? Are they nationals
of Australia or people who have gotten in via a passport? What?
Steve Emerson: Well after 9/11, the biggest threat was from al
Qaeda [was] sending in operatives or trying to remotely detonate planes
through operational devices that could remain undetected. Then we went
through a period of homegrown terrorists who weren't directed by al Qaeda
but were recruited online or by the Muslim leaders in their own community.
Now we're into jihad 3.0 where we have people who are volunteering to
battle Syria or the West in Iraq and in Syria, gaining the incredible
experience of fighting, and then possibly returning back to their own
countries in Europe, Australia or the United States. Now you have to
remember that the people who are being recruited get vetted before they go
to Turkey, which is the infiltration route. Then they get vetted at the border
between Turkey and Syria to see who is willing to die and who is willing to
be the most vicious. So when they return back to their home countries, you
already have a preselected number of jihadis who are willing to die or
carry out vicious acts of violence like beheadings. We haven't experienced
that in the US yet, but it certainly has been experienced in Belgium,
Germany. It's been experienced in Britain and now in Australia.
Mathisen: Mr. Hussain, how easy or difficult is it to track these
individuals who as Mr. Emerson just described have a rather circuitous
path, often moving through Turkey into Syria, into Iraq? How easy is it to
track them so that when they try to come back into the United States or
Great Britain, they can be identified, detained, investigated?
Hussain: Well, it's not straightforward to stop people going or
people returning. Turkey is a very popular holiday destination for many
British people. And millions go there every year. It's very easy to get a
cheap, low-budget flight to Turkey and then get a coach across to the
border and cross over. And if someone's done that for a few weeks or even
longer and decides to come back, unless they've popped up on social media
and talked openly about what they've been doing, we're not going to really
know what they've been doing, these individuals. So it is very worrying
that it is quite easy, in my opinion, to get back into Europe, certainly
Britain or America, certainly very easy to get back into Europe, European
territory, from Turkey and from Syria. And part of the problem is the fact
that the Turkish government has actually turned a blind eye to these
individuals because they have their own tactical objectives of overthrowing
the Assad regime. And in the past they have not done enough to secure that
border. So many individuals are getting the know-how, getting the
motivation from individuals they come across online and then arranging to
meet them at the Syrian border so they can go over and join ISIS.
Mathisen: We're very tight on time. Mr. Hussain, thank you very
much. Steve Emerson, where is the risk most prevalent and what would you
expect the next sort of terror target to be? Would it be those kinds of
streetnappings, or would it be the kind of attack that we saw in the
shopping mall in Nairobi about a year ago? Very quickly.
Emerson: I think it would be the latter. I think we're probably
going to see--[although] it's impossible to predict, a freelance--a
homegrown terrorist returning from Iraq or Syria who decides to detonate a
bomb someplace remotely or carry out a suicide bombing on his own like we
saw in Belgium and in France in the last two years.
Mathisen: Is Europe more vulnerable than the United States, or
can you tell?
Emerson: Europe is more vulnerable because there are ten times more
numbers of jihadi volunteers, up to 5,000, who have gone over to Iraq and
Syria. In the United States, only about 200 to 300 have. But that number is
growing, unfortunately.
Mathisen: Gentlemen, we thank you both for your perspectives on
this very chilling topic.
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