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Thoughts
on the P5+1 Negotiations with Tehran
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The Nov. 24 deadline came and went for an agreement between the powers
and the Islamic Republic of Iran; on that date, they managed only to
extend the existing interim deal for another seven months. The ayatollah
crowed and U.S.
senators stewed. Looking beyond these responses, the current
situation spurs several thoughts:
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Ayatollah
Khamene'i in a good mood, despite recent surgery. Could it be the
American negotiators that cheer him?
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- If one assumes, as
I do, that the apocalyptically-minded Iranian leadership will do
everything it can to acquire The Bomb, then economic sanctions only
serve to slow its course, not to stop it. Put more forcefully, the
debate over sanctions is peripheral and even diversionary. The
arcane financial and scientific minutiae of the negotiations tend to
bury the only discussion that really matters – whether or not some
government will use force to reverse the nuclear program.
- That said, should
the 114th Congress pass legislation with a veto-proof
majority, this would be an unprecedented
blow against Barack Obama and would presumably serve as a
low-water mark of his presidency. But this signal event for American
domestic politics is unlikely to affect the Iranian program.
- Some governments
(Russian, American) have the means but not the intent to destroy the
Iranian facilities. Others have the intent (Saudi, Canadian) but not
the means. This leaves only one player, which sort-of has the means
and sort-of the intent: Israel. Given its in-between status, whether
it will act is the $64,000 question. This is what preoccupies me
and, I suggest, what others too should focus on.
- Israel's conundrum
appears genuine: On the one hand, this is only state to have knocked
out nuclear programs (and it did so twice, in 1981 and 2007); on the
other, the logistical challenge and supremely high stakes make this
round far more daunting.
- Not for the first
time, the 8 million people of Israel have an outsized international
role. There's a reason it has the highest per-capita number of
foreign correspondents: whether it's classical music virtuosity,
religious passions, high-tech breakthroughs, UN Security Council
resolutions, or warfare, the Jewish state globally punches far above
its weight.
(November 26, 2014)
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