Wanted:
New Grand Vizier for Turkey's Sultan
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A
rhetorical question by the time the Economist ran this cover of
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in June 2013.
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Why would a prime minister, who only a few months ago won a general
election with 49.5% of the vote, step down? Corruption allegations? A
soaring opposition? Plummeting public approval for this or that reason? A
scandalous affair that fell into the public domain?
None of those applies to Turkey's prime minister, Ahmet Davutoglu, who
on May 5 announced that he would take the ruling Justice and Development
Party (AKP) to an extraordinary general convention, where he would not
run for chairman or prime minister. After barely 20 months in office, Davutoglu
was abruptly quitting.
At the press conference where he announced his decision to stand down,
Davutoglu said this was "not my choice but a
necessity." He then blamed the AKP's central executive committee for
not having exhibited the "comradeship" he would expect of them.
But why were the committee's 50 members so mean to a super-popular
(and successful, in his account) leader? Simply because he was not a
leader, but just a grand vizier appointed
20 months ago by the sultan who goes by the title President of
Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Indeed, Davutoglu's resignation was a "necessity," not his
choice. It was a necessity because the sultan wanted a lower-profile,
more obedient grand vizier, who would work in line with the sultan's
priorities, and not his own. No doubt, Davutoglu has been loyal to
Erdogan. Even as he announced his resignation he pledged full fidelity to
the president and the party. And he meant it.
So, what was the problem? Simple: Erdogan wanted a sultan-grand vizier
partnership, whereas Davutoglu mistakenly thought that the two Islamist
comrades were the president and prime minister.
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Turkish
Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu (left) fancied himself an equal partner
of Erdogan (right).
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Davutoglu, who became prime minister in August 2014 after Erdogan was
elected president and had handpicked him to take the job under his dark
shadow, thought that he really was the prime minister. Bidding farewell,
he lamented that: "We agreed [with Erdogan in 2014] that the country
needed a prime minister, not a caretaker prime minister." Twenty
months later, the Turkish Putin-Medvedev system collapsed, primarily
because the Turkish Medvedev mistakenly thought that he was free to run
the executive as the Turkish constitution dictates but was in fact
expected to be a pawn -- fully, not partly, controlled by the Turkish
Putin.
At an extraordinary party congress on May 22, the AKP will elect its new "leader" who will
automatically become the new Turkish prime minister. There will not be a
race among several contenders. Instead, there will only be one nominee,
the sultan's new choice for the grand vizier. There are a number of hopefuls, including Deputy Prime Minister Numan
Kurtulmus, Justice Minister Bekir Bozdag, Transport, Maritime and
Communications Minister Binali Yildirim and Energy Minister Berat
Albayrak, Erdogan's son-in-law.
Naturally, everyone is curious about the new head of the Turkish
executive. In reality, it matters little which of the hopefuls will take
up the job. Erdogan could just well choose a computer, or an advanced
office machine to appoint as the new prime minister, instead of a person,
had technology allowed him to do so. Whoever takes the job he will be a
rubber-stamp prime minister working as the sultan's appointed party
commissar. As one senior AKP official said: "The new prime minister should be a
low-profile figure."
The office of the Turkish prime
minister will henceforth be a secretariat of the presidential palace.
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Can anyone instantly tell the name of the Chinese prime minister?
Well, his Turkish counterpart may be a bit better-known to the rest of
the world, but much more than a ruling party secretary general controlled
by the president who, according
to the constitution, does not have authority over the executive,
legislative and judicial branches of the state.
Davutoglu's departure seals two more facts about Turkey:
- What many critics
call a "Palace coup" illustrates that the Turkish
constitution is, effectively, null and void and,
- The office of the
prime minister, from now on, will be a secretariat of the
president's palace, whoever gets the job.
As Dexter Filkins reminded us in the New Yorker: "It's an old story:
the loyal satrap, who makes a career for himself by faithfully snarling
at his master's critics, finally gets thrown overboard himself."
When Erdogan came to power in 2002, his most trusted political allies
were Fethullah Gulen, a U.S.-based Muslim cleric running a (now ailing)
global network of schools, enterprises, NGOs and charities; Abdullah Gul,
Erdogan's predecessor as president; and Bulent Arinc, former
parliamentary speaker and deputy prime minister. In 2009, Davutoglu
joined the court of the sultan's most favored men. Today, Erdogan is
fighting to jail Gulen, with an extradition warrant on his head; Gul and Arinc have
already been sent into the political wasteland; and Davutoglu has been
the last victim of "comradeship."
The next sultan's favorite will surely try to behave better. But he
may not survive too long -- only until the sultan decides to choose
another.
Burak Bekdil is an Ankara-based
columnist for the Turkish newspaper Hürriyet Daily News and a fellow at the
Middle East Forum.
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