Friday, September 22, 2017

Eye on Iran: McMaster: Trump's Iran Deal Decision Part of Broader Strategy


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National security adviser H.R. McMaster said Thursday that President Donald Trump's forthcoming decision about whether to recertify Iran's compliance with a multilateral nuclear agreement will follow "lengthy" discussions the president has had with his advisers about the 2015 pact. "We've all been in lengthy discussions not just about the Iran deal but really about what to do about Iran's destabilizing behavior broadly," McMaster said on CNN's "New Day."


Iranian President Hassan Rohani has said that Tehran will continue its missile program and boost the country's military capacities, despite U.S. President Donald Trump's demand that Iran stop developing "dangerous missiles."


President Donald Trump has determined how he wants to approach the Iran nuclear deal - which he has called the worst agreement ever negotiated by the United States - but has not told even his top national security advisers what his decision is. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said Wednesday that Trump had not informed him or others in the administration about his decision and had refused to share it with British Prime Minister Theresa May when she asked him about it.

UANI IN THE NEWS


Four blocks away, at "Iran Summit 2017," speakers including former Florida governor Jeb Bush, former senator Mike Kirk, General David Petraeus, former senator and vice presidential candidate Joe Lieberman, and other diplomats and congressmen gave a similar assurance: Support for the Iran deal is as low as ever. The summit, held by the bipartisan group United Against Nuclear Iran, involved a series of panel discussions during which speakers explored the threat that Iran poses to the United States and its allies. Speakers agreed that preventing a nuclear Iran should be Trump's top priority.

IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL


President Donald Trump has determined how he wants to approach the Iran nuclear deal - which he has called the worst agreement ever negotiated by the United States - but has not told even his top national security advisers what his decision is. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said Wednesday that Trump had not informed him or others in the administration about his decision and had refused to share it with British Prime Minister Theresa May when she asked him about it.


The Trump administration is unlikely to brief senators about the Iran nuclear deal until the president has decided whether Tehran is complying with its terms, according to correspondence cited by a senior congressional aide. Senior Senate Democrats have been urging the administration to send the secretary of state, the director of national intelligence, the defense secretary and the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and potentially the energy and treasury secretaries, to Capitol Hill sometime before Oct. 6 to brief senators about Iran's behavior under the nuclear deal. That is the last day senators will be in Washington before President Trump's Oct. 15 deadline to certify whether Tehran is compliant.


A Donald Trump administration effort to reopen negotiations on the landmark Iran nuclear agreement collapsed on Wednesday as key European powers persevered in their effort to rescue the deal from an American walkout, and Iran's president made clear his government wouldn't revisit the terms of the pact. During a closed-door meeting Wednesday night of foreign ministers from Iran, the European Union, and five other big powers, U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, who was joined by Nikki Haley, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, conceded that Iran was in full compliance with its obligations under the 2015 nuclear pact.


Iran's president said on Thursday its nuclear accord with world powers cannot be renegotiated, after the Trump administration warned it was weighing whether the deal signed by its predecessor served U.S. security interests. Under the 2015 deal, Iran agreed to limit its disputed nuclear program in return for the easing of economic sanctions. U.S. President Donald Trump called the deal an "embarrassment" during his first speech at the United Nations on Tuesday.


Iran's foreign minister rejected on Thursday any new negotiation with the United States over extending the length or conditions of the 2015 nuclear accord, saying that Iran would talk about changing the accord only if every concession it made - including giving up nuclear fuel - were reconsidered. In an interview, the foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, said that would mean Iran would retake possession of the stockpile of nuclear fuel it shipped to Russia when the accord took effect.

NUCLEAR & BALLISTIC-MISSILE PROGRAMS


Iran's Revolutionary Guard on Friday unveiled its latest ballistic missile capable of reaching much of the Middle East, including Israel, while the country's president vowed that Tehran would press ahead with its missile program in defiance of U.S. demands to the contrary. The unveiling came during a military parade in Tehran that commemorated the 1980s Iraq-Iran war. The move was a direct challenge to President Donald Trump, who in August signed a bill imposing mandatory penalties on those involved in Iran's ballistic missile program and anyone who does business with them.

U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS


U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif spoke directly during talks at the United Nations on Wednesday in what a European diplomat described as a "very difficult" meeting. "Tillerson and Zarif spoke directly for a relatively long time. There was no real great surprise in the positions expressed," the diplomat said.


The commander of Iran's hardline Revolutionary Guards urged his country to use "all its options" and take unspecified "actions" in the next few months to cause pain to the United States in the wake of criticisms of Iran by US President Donald Trump this week. "Time is now ripe for correcting the US miscalculations," General Mohammad Ali Jafari said Wednesday, a day after Trump addressed the UN and called Iran a "corrupt dictatorship" and a "murderous regime."

SANCTIONS RELIEF


Oberbank on Thursday said it had signed a deal with Iran, enabling it to finance new ventures there and making it one of the first European banks to do so since sanctions were eased. The deal Tehran struck in 2015 with six major powers lifted many sanctions against the country in exchange for restrictions on its nuclear activities and paved the way for international business deals. But many banks have stayed away for fear of inadvertently breaking remaining U.S. sanctions, which could lead to huge fines.

IRAQ CRISIS


Turkey, Iran and Iraq have agreed to consider counter-measures against Kurdish northern Iraq over a planned independence referendum, Turkey's foreign ministry said on Thursday. In a joint statement, the foreign ministers of the three countries voiced concerns that the referendum would endanger the gains Iraq has made against Islamic State, and reiterated their fears over the potential for new conflicts in the region.


The Nujaba group, which has about 10,000 fighters, is now one of the most important militias in Iraq. Though made up of Iraqis, it is loyal to Iran and is helping Tehran create a supply route through Iraq to Damascus, according to Iraqi lawmaker Shakhwan Abdullah, retired Lebanese general Elias Farhat, and other current and former officials in Iraq. The route will run through a string of small cities including Qayrawan. To open it up, Iranian-backed militias are pushing into southeast Syria near the border with Iraq, where U.S. forces are based.

HUMAN RIGHTS


U.N Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has appealed to Iranian President Hassan Rouhani for the release of an American-Iranian dual citizen and former UNICEF official, Baquer Namazi, a U.N. spokesman said on Thursday. Guterres and Rouhani met on Monday, September 18, on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly, UNGA. "The Secretary-General did raise the issue and again appealed for the release of Baquer Namazi on humanitarian grounds," Reuters cited U.N. spokesman Stephane Dujarric, as saying.


Radio Farda's Elaheh Ravanshad has prepared some straightforward questions on the themes for Nobel Peace Prize laureate Shirin Ebadi. Here's an extract.... [Ebadi: "]Sadly, the conditions necessary for peace in Iran are missing since the human dignity has been damaged and human rights have systematically and frequently been violated there. Looking at the number of journalists behind bars leaves you with no option other than concluding that if there's peace in Iran, it's the same as the calmness and tranquility ruling over cemeteries. Sooner or later, such peace and tranquility are doomed to be disturbed.["]

OPINION & ANALYSIS


Iranian President Hassan Rouhani suffers, or benefits, from what the shrinks call "projection" - seeing in other people one's own faults. "Moderation is the inclination as well as the chosen path of the great Iranian people," Rouhani told the UN General Assembly Wednesday. This from a man who told supporters back in May, after winning an election that included only mullah-approved candidates, "We are proud of our armed forces, the Revolutionary Guards, the Basij and the security forces."


Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei lashed out at President Donald Trump's speech to the United Nations General Assembly and claimed that Trump used "hostile and gangster-style" language against Iran because of America's "defeats" in the Middle East... Like Khamenei, other Iranian political and military leaders have reacted angrily to Trump's speech and have threatened "painful" retaliatory measures. All Iranian leaders maintained that Tehran would resist American pressure and will not renegotiate the nuclear deal. Hardliners in Iran are also increasing pressure on President Hassan Rouhani not to give further concessions to Washington and leave the nuclear deal if the U.S. levies more sanctions against the Islamic Republic.


A prominent Iranian-sponsored Iraqi militia group has rejected a U.N.-sponsored initiative on the Iraqi Kurdistan and warned that Erbil's plan to hold an independence referendum is a "foreign conspiracy" that will destabilize Iraq. Earlier today, the political bureau of Asaib Ahl al-Haq, a unit within Iraq's Popular Mobilization Forces (P.M.F.), issued a statement calling for unity in Iraq and rejected a U.N.-sponsored initiative on Kurdistan... As the Iraqi Kurdistan is set to hold an independence referendum on Monday, Tehran and its Iraqi proxies have warned that the consequences of such a move would be dire. "If tension over the Iraqi Kurdistan's referendum continues, it will certainly culminate in civil war" Hadi al-Amiri, the head of Iranian-supported Badr Organization, was quoted as saying by Iran's Fars News Agency. "Unfortunately, when the civil war breaks out, blood will be shed," he added.


On Thursday, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the operational chief commander of Iraq's Popular Mobilization Forces, announced the start of the first phase of a military operation to liberate the town of Hawija in the disputed province of Kirkuk. The P.M.F. vice-chairman explained that the offensive began from four main fronts: the Iraqi security forces and P.M.F. paramilitary troops will first capture al-Shirqat, a Sunni Arab town in Salahuddin Province, and then advance into Hawija. Al-Muhandis traveled ti Kirkuk on Monday and met with Abu Reza al-Najjar, the military commander of the northern zone in the province... he offensive comes just four days before the Iraqi Kurdistan is set to hold an independence referendum, including in Kirkuk. Most of Kirkuk is under the control of Kurdish Peshmerga forces, which seized the areas three years ago after Islamic State fighters drove out the Iraqi security forces from the region.


Trump has every right, even an obligation, to identify UNSCR 2231 as a related agreement, and to tell Congress that he cannot certify compliance because Iran's missile tests and weapons movements via commercial airlines are serial violations. This would set in motion numerous options for reapplying sanctions on Iran's nuclear program. It should also prompt all elements of the U.S. government to fix, renegotiate or, ideally, eliminate the deal, and to take action to actually stop Iran's nuclear program.






Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email press@uani.com.

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.

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