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TOP STORIES
U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo blamed Iran on
Wednesday for threats to American missions in Iraq and said the
United States was terminating a treaty of amity with Tehran, which is
the target of increasing U.S. sanctions over its missile programs.
Oil buyers who viewed Obama-era policies as precedent
for U.S. sanctions on Iran are getting a rude shock. A Trump
administration demand that oil purchases should stop has blindsided
Asian importers who assumed they would only have to reduce shipments
from the Persian Gulf state.
The re-imposition of US sanctions will likely send the
Iranian economy into recession next year on the back of a sharp
decline in oil exports and a further slump in already-low foreign
investment inflows as companies with US exposure wind down in Iran.
UANI IN THE NEWS
Accusing Iran of conducting illicit activities and
posing a threat to U.S. forces in the Middle East, national security
adviser John Bolton said last week at the 2018 United Against Nuclear
Iran summit that Tehran should "take me seriously when I assure
them today that if you cross us, our allies or our partners, if you
harm our citizens, if you continue to lie cheat and deceive, yes,
there will indeed be hell to pay."
Meanwhile, his acolytes were cheered by a doting
gathering at the United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) summit a short
walk from UN headquarters in New York City. Secretary of State Mike
Pompeo trashed the nuclear deal and castigated the European Union
plan to circumvent punitive US sanctions.
NUCLEAR DEAL & NUCLEAR PROGRAM
Israel obtained an "extremely impressive"
stash of intelligence about Iranian nuclear activity that needs to be
investigated further by the International Atomic Energy Agency,
President Trump's top national security aide said after international
monitors rejected the idea.
SANCTIONS, BUSINESS RISKS, & OTHER ECONOMIC
NEWS
France just learned that President Trump had a point
when he warned that the 2015 Iran nuclear deal "didn't bring
calm, it didn't bring peace and it never will." Paris this week
publicly accused Tehran of plotting to bomb an Iranian opposition
group's rally near the French capital in June. As a first sanction,
the French government froze assets belonging to two suspected Iranian
intelligence operatives and to officials in Iran's spy ministry.
Iran's supreme leader says the Islamic Republic will
"slap" the United States by defeating new American
sanctions targeting the nation.
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani praised Europe on
Wednesday for taking a "big step" toward maintaining
business with Iran after the unilateral U.S. withdrawal from a 2015
nuclear deal and re-imposition of new sanctions on the Islamic
Republic.
The people of Iran face a sensitive time because of the
pressure from America and economic problems, Supreme Leader Ayatollah
Ali Khamenei said in a key address broadcast by state television on
Thursday.
U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS & NEGOTIATIONS
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Wednesday that the
White House was terminating a 1950s treaty with Iran after a United
Nations court ruled the accord prevented the US from imposing
sanctions that would affect humanitarian aid.
Hanging on a wall in John Bolton's West Wing office is a
memento of his proudest achievement as national security adviser: a
framed copy of President Donald Trump's order to pull the United
States out of the Iran nuclear deal. Right next to it hangs a
cartoon mocking the agreement.
During a press conference at the United Nations General
Assembly on Sept. 26, President Trump made clear how he feels about
the criticism he's gotten from other countries over his decision to
pull out of the Iran nuclear agreement and resurrect stifling
sanctions in November. "It doesn't matter what world leaders
think," he said. "Iran's going to come back to me and make
a deal."
MILITARY/INTELLIGENCE MATTERS & PROXY WARS
[T]hese latest French raids and indictments are designed
to deter Iran from taking action on French soil. The French want the
Iranians to know that they are being watched.
IRANIAN INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS
While many observers ascribe the weakening of the
Iranian rial in recent months to the psychological impact of
increasing US pressure on Iran, the currency crisis has domestic
roots, too. Indeed, the partly privatized Iranian economy has given
birth to a web of interest-driven relations between those in power
and those with wealth.
RUSSIA, SYRIA, ISRAEL, HEZBOLLAH, LEBANON & IRAN
From the Iranian attack on Syria to the U.S. claiming it
may take action against new Russian missiles, Putin is flexing his
muscles and shows he's not afraid to challenge any other country.
Russia delivered advanced air-defense systems to Syria
after the recent airplane-downing incident, but its desire to check
Iran could permit continued Israeli operations in the Syrian skies.
IRAQ & IRAN
Concerned that tensions between Iran and the United
States could blow back onto Iraq, a senior Iraqi diplomat said today
that Iraq would be willing to facilitate dialogue between the two
nations.
A top Iraqi diplomat pushed back Wednesday against the
Trump administration's assertion that Iran-backed militants have been
responsible for attacks on the U.S. consulate in southern Iraq,
saying recent insecurity in the city of Basra was caused purely by
political demonstrations and "a normal expression of
democracy."
OTHER FOREIGN AFFAIRS
Germany on Wednesday told the United States that it
shared its goals on Iran even as the Europeans press ahead to save a
denuclearization deal threatened by US sanctions.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel began a visit to Israel
on Wednesday, with Iran's nuclear ambitions and the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict among issues on the agenda in talks with
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
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