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The United States will respond with military force if
its interests are attacked by Iran, the U.S. Iran envoy said on
Thursday as Arab leaders gathered in Saudi Arabia to discuss what
they see as the threat from Tehran amid rising tensions. But
U.S. Special Representative for Iran Brian Hook said U.S. actions
taken so far in the Gulf region, which include repositioning military
assets, have had the "desired deterrent effect on the (Iranian)
regime's risk calculations".
Saudi Arabia has called for a decisive Arab stand against
Iranian threats as King Salman convened a meeting of Arab states that
condemned the Islamic republic's alleged interference in the Arab
world. The king, addressing an emergency Arab summit in Mecca on
Friday, said Riyadh wanted to avoid war and was willing to extend its
hand for peace, even as he attacked what he described as Iran's
perpetuation of terrorism in the region directly and via proxies.
The Trump administration has delayed new, tougher
sanctions on Iran's petrochemical sector, said people familiar with
the matter, as it seeks to dial back tensions that have threatened to
spiral out of control. The pivot came after heated rhetoric between
Washington and Tehran over U.S. accusations that Iran was
likely behind the sabotage of Saudi oil tankers, the people said,
including a warning last week from President Trump that a war could
see the "official end of Iran."
SANCTIONS, BUSINESS RISKS, & OTHER ECONOMIC NEWS
Countries that haven't yet hit a U.S. limit on imports
of Iranian oil can continue the trade without risk of sanctions until
they reach the negotiated cap, a senior U.S. official said. The U.S.
in November issued waivers for China, India and six other countries
to continue importing limited amounts of oil from Iran. But the
waivers expired in early May and the administration said no new
waivers would be granted, as the Trump administration pursued a
pressure campaign against Iran that has heightened tensions between
Washington and Tehran.
The U.S. State Department sought to quash speculation
that the Trump administration is easing its clampdown on Iranian oil
exports after a sanctions waiver program ended May 2, saying there
was no softening in the American stance that any country buying
Iran's oil would be subject to penalties. A U.S. decision not to
renew the six-month waivers allowing limited exports is final and
future trade will be subject to sanctions, Brian Hook, the U.S.
special representative for Iran, said in a statement to Bloomberg
News on Thursday.
Saudi King Salman Bin Abdulaziz
accused Iran of threatening global oil supplies and
shipping at a meeting of Arab leaders that called on the international
community to confront Tehran following attacks on shipping and rising
tensions in the oil rich region. Leaders of Gulf and Arab states held
two emergency summits in Mecca on Thursday to present a united front
to Iran. At the end of the meetings, Arab League chief Ahmed Aboul
Gheit said it was too early to talk of war with Tehran.
The United States will sanction any country which buys
oil from Iran after the expiration of waivers on May 2, U.S. Special
Representative for Iran Brian Hook said on Thursday. Sanctions
would be imposed "even if a country had not met its
previously-negotiated purchase caps," Hook said in a statement.
"Our firm policy is to completely zero out purchases of Iranian
oil. Period."
Asia's crude oil imports from Iran jumped to the highest
in nine months in April, as buyers
rushed to ship in purchases before their waivers from
U.S. sanctions on Iran expired in May, data from government and trade
sources showed on Friday. Top buyers China, India, Japan and South
Korea imported a total 1.62 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude
from Iran in April, up 3.2% from the previous month to the highest
since July, the data showed.
China's CNPC Capital, the financial arm of state energy
giant China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC), said on Friday that a
unit cited by a U.S. official this week as owning a tanker shipping
Iranian oil has no links to the vessel. The United States
earlier this week warned Hong Kong to be on alert for a vessel carrying
Iranian oil that might seek to stop in the Asian financial hub, with
a senior U.S. official saying any entity providing services to the
vessel would be in violation of U.S. sanctions.
The Iranian government is rattling sabers once again,
and the Trump administration is rattling back. In years past those
tensions would have sent world oil markets into a panic. Not so this
time around - at least not yet. And one important reason is the U.S.
has become so dominant in crude oil and natural gas production and
export. In response to the escalating tensions between Iran and the
U.S., some Iranian officials have threatened to close the
Strait of Hormuz.
MISSILE PROGRAM
Russia has rejected an Iranian request to buy S-400
missile defense systems, concerned that the sale would stoke more
tension in the Middle East, according to two people with knowledge of
the matter, including a senior Russian official. The request was rebuffed
by President Vladimir Putin, the people said on condition of
anonymity because they're not authorized to discuss the matter.
Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif visited Moscow May 7.
PROTESTS & HUMAN RIGHTS
Thousands of Iranians rallied Friday to mark Quds, or
Jerusalem Day, which will see demonstrations across the Mideast as
the Trump administration tries to offer an Israeli-Palestinian peace
plan. The annual protests, also being held in Iraq, Lebanon and
elsewhere, come on the last Friday of the Muslim holy fasting month
of Ramadan. Iran has marked Quds Day since the start of its 1979
Islamic Revolution by the late Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini.
U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS & NEGOTIATIONS
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo called on Germany to
also ban the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah during his state visit
on Friday, saying it should follow the UK's lead. The UK banned
Hezbollah early this year, calling it "terrorist organization."
Pompeo made his first visit to Germany as secretary of state at the
start of a four-nation European trip as tensions rise between the US
and Iran.
U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Thursday blamed
Iran for attacks on oil tankers in the Gulf, saying it was an effort
by Tehran to raise the global price of oil. "These were
efforts by the Iranians to raise the price of crude oil throughout
the world," Pompeo told reporters shortly before leaving on a
trip to Europe. He suggested he had seen evidence of Iran's
involvement cited earlier on Thursday by White House National
Security Adviser John Bolton.
Tens of thousands of Iranians marking the annual
"Quds (Jerusalem) Day" in the Islamic Republic on Friday
condemned a planned Middle East peace plan touted by U.S. President
Donald Trump as the "deal of the century." State
television said state-sponsored marches were being held in 950 communities
across Iran and showed demonstrators carrying banners with slogans
such as "Jerusalem is the eternal capital of Palestine" and
"Death to America."
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is off to Europe on
Thursday to seek support and a potential diplomatic climb-down to
ease rising tensions between the U.S. and Iran. Even as the Trump
administration revels in its "maximum pressure" campaign
against Iran, Pompeo is traveling to Germany, Switzerland, the
Netherlands and Britain to assure European leaders that the U.S. is
not looking for conflict, press them to do what they can to cool the
situation, and perhaps open a channel of communication with the
Islamic Republic.
Mike Pompeo is making his first visit to Germany as
secretary of state at the start of a four-nation European trip as
tensions rise between the U.S. and Iran. Pompeo was set to meet
Foreign Minister Heiko Maas and Chancellor Angela Merkel in Berlin on
Friday before continuing to Switzerland, which has long represented
Washington's interests in Tehran and has in the past been an
intermediary between the two.
The threat from Iran is not over but quick action from
the United States has helped deter it, White House National Security
Adviser John Bolton said on Thursday. The U.S. military has
sent forces, including an aircraft carrier and B-52 bombers, to the
Middle East in a move that U.S. officials said was made to counter
"clear indications" of threats from Iran to American forces
in the region.
Russia expressed support for Japan's intention to play a
role in helping ease tensions between Iran and the United States, an
official in Tokyo said on Thursday after a meeting of Japan and
Russia's foreign and defense ministers. On Monday, U.S.
President Donald Trump welcomed Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's
help in dealing with Iran, after Japanese broadcaster NHK reported
that Abe was considering a trip to Tehran as early as
mid-June.
In his latest speech to an Iranian audience, Supreme
Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei threw cold water on any possibility of
renegotiating the nuclear deal with the United States under the
current campaign of pressure from the White House. In response to
calls that Iran must "return to the negotiating table," as
US national security adviser John Bolton has previously stated,
Khamenei said, "Those who say Iran must return to the
negotiating table mean that Iran must negotiate with America, because
we don't have problems with other countries - and we negotiate with
Europeans and others."
Former Obama national security adviser Jim Jones told
Hill.TV on Thursday it is a "good thing" that Iranian
officials are in the dark about what to expect from President
Trump. "The nice thing I like about our policy is that I'm quite
sure that the Iranians have no idea what President Trump might
do," Jones told hosts Buck Sexton and Jamal Simmons on
"Rising." "That in itself is, I think, a good
thing." "They're off-balance, and they might wake up one
morning and find they no longer have a Navy, for example," he
continued.
Amid rising tensions in the Persian Gulf region, Saudi
Arabia has called on tens of Arab and Muslim states represented in
three summits in Mecca to confront Iran's interventions in the
region, while a senior Saudi official says Riyadh does not want a war
with Iran. In the meantime, Iran has ruled out accusations about
intervention in the affairs of regional counties.
Maritime security experts say there was
likely here less than four kilograms of explosives in the
limpet mine that tore open a gash in the stern of Norwegian oil
tanker "Andrea Victory" as she lay at anchor off the United
Arab Emirates on May 12. As with additional attacks against three
other vessels and two major oil pipeline facilities here in
nearby Saudi Arabia, there was little chance of the attacks causing
catastrophic damage or disrupting the world's supply of oil.
MILITARY/INTELLIGENCE MATTERS & PROXY WARS
So where is the Qaher F-313? It was spotted only once
after its initial debut in November 2013 being
prepped for taxi tests-but it has never been seen again. It's likely
the unimpressive mockup is sitting in the warehouse somewhere in
Iran, or has been recycled for some other theatrical production.
Several years back, Iran rolled out its Qaher
F-313 'stealth fighter' in front of then President Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad.
IRANIAN INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS
A bizarre scandal rocked Iran this week. Former Tehran
mayor Mohammad Ali Najafi shot and killed his wife, Mitra Ostad. But
it's how authorities and the state media have handled the crime that
has Iranians outraged. While cases of gun violence in Iran are
extremely rare, domestic violence has been a fact of life for Iranian
women throughout history. The high-profile killing is shocking on its
own merits.
Javad is a 30-year-old architect and photographer in
Iran. Born to an Iranian mother and an Afghan father in Iran, he
has not yet been granted Iranian citizenship due to the
country's nationality law, which only gives children of Iranian
fathers automatic citizenship. As a result, Javad has faced plenty of
hurdles and has been deprived of many services, including four years
of primary school, insurance and a driver's license. He
also faces the annual extension of his father's legal residence in
Iran.
Iranian state broadcasters should replace female
presenters with men, Iran's ayatollah Ahmad Alamolhoda said,
according to the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA). Alamolhoda is
the representative of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in the country's
Khorasan Razavi province. He is widely believed to be a conservative
hardliner and has been in the headlines for making such statements in
the past.
RUSSIA, SYRIA, ISRAEL, HEZBOLLAH, LEBANON & IRAN
Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar on Thursday thanked Iran for
providing his terror group the rockets it used to strike deep into
Israel and warned the Jewish state that Tel Aviv would be struck
again in response to any offensive against the Gaza Strip. "Iran
provided us with rockets, and we surprised the world when our
resistance targeted Beersheba," Sinwar said in a live TV
address, referring to the weekend of violence at the beginning of the
month, during which Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad fired nearly
700 rockets at Israel.
Russia dispatched one of its leading diplomats to Tehran
this week to urge the Iranians to back off their threat to resume
certain nuclear activities in retaliation for the US "maximum
pressure" campaign. Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov sat
down for "a square talk" with his counterpart Abbas
Araghchi, the Russian foreign minister said in a statement after the
meeting. The Russian envoy sought to dissuade the Iranians from
leaving the Non-Proliferation Treaty or following the Donald Trump
administration in exiting the 2015 nuclear deal.
A trilateral Israeli, US and Russian meeting of national
security advisers is scheduled to take place in Israel in June to
deal with regional security issues, and is expected to focus on
Iran's involvement in Syria. On Wednesday night, just before the
Knesset decided to dissolve itself, the White House issued a
statement saying that US National Security Adviser John Bolton,
Israeli National Security Adviser Meir Ben-Shabbat and Russian
Secretary of the Security Council Nikolay Patrushev will meet in
Jerusalem in June "to discuss regional security issues."
GULF STATES, YEMEN, & IRAN
"We have been consistent in our messaging,"
Brian Hook, the U.S. Special Representative for Iran and Senior
Policy Advisor to Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told reporters on
May 30. "Iran should show more of an interest in talks than
threats and we have seen on an almost daily basis from the Iranian
regime that they will not talk with the United States."
An exhibition held on Thursday on the premises of
Jeddah's King Abdul Aziz International Airport showcased missiles,
unarmed aerial vehicles (UAVs), boats and other equipment used by the
Iran-backed Houthi militia in Yemen to target Saudi Arabia, the Saudi
Press Agency reported.
Saudi Arabia's king has accused the kingdom's key rival,
Iran, of developing nuclear and ballistic missiles which threaten
regional and global stability, telling regional leaders that action
is needed to stop Iranian "escalations" following a series
of attacks on oil assets in the Gulf.
Iran bears responsibility for recent drone attacks
carried out by Houthi rebels on targets in Saudi Arabia, John Bolton,
President Trump's national security adviser, said Thursday. "The
Houthi capability in drones and missiles, all supplied by Iran, is a
real threat to peace and security in the region," Mr. Bolton
told reporters in London.
Saudi Arabia's King Salman opened an emergency summit of
Arab leaders in Islam's holiest city of Mecca on Friday with a call
for the international community to use all means to confront Iran,
but he also said the kingdom remains committed to peace. King Salman
delivered his remarks at Arab summits in Mecca that were hastily
convened after a spike in tensions between Saudi Arabia and its rival
Iran.
Saudi Arabia's King Salman told an emergency Gulf Arab
meeting on Thursday that Iran's development of nuclear and ballistic
missile capabilities threatened regional and global security.
He said Tehran's actions threatened international maritime trade and
global oil supplies in a "glaring violation of U.N. treaties",
following attacks this month on oil tankers off the United Arab
Emirates and on oil pumping stations in the kingdom.
Iran's foreign ministry has rejected accusations it says
were made at an ongoing summit of Muslim countries, after regional
rival Saudi Arabia said Iran's behavior threatens regional stability
and security. Iran's state-run IRNA news agency cited a foreign
ministry spokesman as saying Friday that the accusations were part of
an ongoing program against Iran being pursued by the United States
and Israel.
Evidence that Iran has been behind recent attacks
on oil tankers and pipelines in the Gulf is likely to be
presented to the UN Security Council as early as next week, John
Bolton, the US national security adviser, has revealed. Bolton has
previously said Iran was almost certainly responsible for the
attacks, but without presenting evidence.
CYBERWARFARE
A private cybersecurity firm, FireEye Threat
Intelligence, recently announced that they had identified a
network of English-language social-media accounts that engaged in
inauthentic behavior and misrepresentation and that "we assess
with low confidence was organized in support of Iranian political
interests." This is the second group of social media
accounts identified by FireEye as part of an Iranian propaganda
or disinformation campaign.
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