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TOP STORIES
The intelligence that caused the White House to escalate
its warnings about a threat from Iran came from photographs of
missiles on small boats in the Persian Gulf that were put on board by
Iranian paramilitary forces, three American officials said. Overhead
imagery showed fully assembled missiles, stoking fears that the
Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps would fire them at United States
naval ships. Additional pieces of intelligence picked up threats
against commercial shipping and potential attacks by Arab militias
with Iran ties on American troops in Iraq.
Growing U.S. pressure on Iran has weakened pragmatic
President Hassan Rouhani and made his hardline rivals more assertive
at home and abroad, recent developments show. When he succeeded
firebrand leader Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in 2013, Rouhani was seen as an
establishment figure who would do little to end Iran's long standoff
with the West. Two years later, his administration signed the nuclear
deal with six world powers that spurred hopes for wider political
change.
When the U.S. withdraws its diplomats from a foreign
country amid a security threat, the domestic reaction in a previous
age would have been to show solidarity against an adversary. But this
is Washington in 2019, so the loyal opposition is reacting to the
threat from Iran by blaming-President Trump. "Either the
Trump administration is trying to goad Iran into war or a war could
come by accident because of the administration's reckless
policies," declared former Obama official Wendy Sherman
Wednesday, after the State Department withdrew personnel from Iraq.
UANI IN THE NEWS
...David Ibsen, president of United Against Nuclear
Iran, told Ami: "I think they were waiting to see what they
could get from the Europeans. They want to keep the Europeans in the
agreement. They hoped the Europeans would be able to keep trade and finance
going through the special vehicle. They're suffering, and they're
starting to lash out as a result."
NUCLEAR DEAL & NUCLEAR PROGRAM
Iran made a veiled threat this week to enrich uranium
stocks closer to weapon-grade levels amid rising tensions in the
region. That would mean going beyond the level of potency allowed by
the 2015 nuclear agreement with world powers, which the U.S. withdrew
from last year. Tehran is threatening to resume higher enrichment on
July 7 if no new agreement is reached to provide relief from U.S.
sanctions. Enriching a supply of uranium means boosting its
concentration of the type of uranium that can power a nuclear
reaction.
Iran has no plans to launch centrifuge machines able to
enrich uranium at higher capacity or to alter its relations with the
U.N. nuclear watchdog, the spokesman for its civilian nuclear agency
was quoted as saying on Thursday. Last week, Iran notified China,
France, Germany, Russia and Britain that would scale back some
commitments under its 2015 nuclear deal, a year after the United
States withdrew from the pact and reimposed sanctions on Tehran.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has said Iran should
stay in the nuclear agreement and should not take the first step to
withdraw. Speaking at a press conference with Austrian President
Alexander Van der Bellen on Wednesday, May 15, Putin said if Iran takes
the first step to leave the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action
(JCPOA), everyone will blame it for the collapse of the agreement.
SANCTIONS, BUSINESS RISKS, & OTHER ECONOMIC
NEWS
Iran's production of oil, its top revenue source,
declined to its lowest level in more than five years as the U.S.
prepared to unilaterally impose a total ban on Iranian crude exports,
a new study shows. In a monthly report released Wednesday, the International
Energy Agency said Iranian oil output was 2.6 million barrels a day
in April, down 5% from March's figure of 2.74 million barrels a day.
April's oil output figure was Iran's lowest since September 2013.
A tanker carrying Iranian fuel oil in violation of U.S.
sanctions has unloaded the cargo into storage tanks near the Chinese
city of Zhoushan, according to ship tracking data on Refinitiv
Eikon. The discharging of the nearly 130,000 tonnes of Iranian
fuel oil onboard the tanker, the Marshal Z, confirmed by a
representative of the oil storage terminal, marks the end of an
odyssey for the cargo that began four months ago.
TERRORISM & EXTREMISM
We need to prepare. With the deployment of the USS
Abraham Lincoln and a group of B-52 bombers to the Middle East,
tensions with Iran have reached a critical phase. While Iran poses a
very real threat to the world's supply of oil, the current situation
also underscores that we must be prepared - immediately - to counter
Iranian-sponsored terrorism and to respond to the threat that Iran's
growing cyber capabilities pose to the United States and our allies
in the region
Sen. Thom Tillis, R, N.C., Wednesday defended recent
action taken by President Trump in response to "credible
threats" from Iran and spoke out against the country's
state-sponsored terrorism. During an appearance
on "America's Newsroom," Tillis said he
supports the president's display of strength as tensions continue to
rise between the United States and Iran.
PROTESTS & HUMAN RIGHTS
British Prime Minister Theresa May said on Wednesday she
was deeply concerned about the jailing of a British Council worker in
Iran on espionage charges. Iran said on Monday it had sentenced
an Iranian woman to 10 years prison for spying for Britain, as tension
rises between Tehran and some Western countries over its nuclear and
missile programs. "It's utterly shocking. I'm deeply
concerned by the turn of events," May told parliament, adding
that the woman was working for a legitimate organization that was
trying to foster better relations between countries.
At least 10 workers at a major Iranian sugar factory
have been detained following new strikes in protest against
management, the Iran Labor News Agency (ILNA) reported on Wednesday.
The Haft Tappeh Sugarcane factory employees were summoned and
arrested on Tuesday following the strikes last week. According to
fellow workers quoted by ILNA, this brought the combined number of
arrests over the May 9 strikes to more than 14, four of whom have
been released on bail, ILNA reported.
U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS & NEGOTIATIONS
"We are on the cusp of a full-scale confrontation
with the enemy," claimed hardliner Hossein Salami, the recently
appointed head of Iran's IRGC on Wednesday. "This moment in
history, because the enemy has stepped into the field of
confrontation with us with all the possible capacity, is the most
decisive moment of the Islamic revolution." Earlier on
Wednesday, Iran's Defense Minister also clearly decided that there
had not been any incendiary public statements for 24-hours, and so he
announced that Iran will "defeat the American-Zionist
front," adding that "today, the Islamic Republic of Iran
stands at the peak of defense-military preparedness to counter any
threat or act of aggression."
U.S. Sen. Martha McSally on Wednesday blasted those
who've criticized National Security Adviser John Bolton as a
"war monger" amid rising tensions between the U.S. and
Iran. "I think he is a realist. I know John Bolton and I know he
cares about protecting Americans and their interests. I just think
this type of infighting is not helpful right now," McSally, an
Arizona Republican, said during an appearance on "The Story with
Martha MacCallum."
Iran is committed to its obligations under an
international nuclear deal despite the U.S. withdrawal from the
landmark agreement, its foreign minister said on Thursday, calling
the reimposition of U.S sanctions
"unacceptable". Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif
made the comments in a meeting with his Japanese counterpart in Tokyo
as tensions rise in the Middle East, fuelling concern that the United
States and Iran are heading for conflict.
Iran's military commanders said on Wednesday the Islamic
Republic was on the verge of an all-out confrontation with its
enemies and was ready to counter any threat. "Iran has the
highest level of defense-military preparedness to confront any type
of threat and excessive demands," Defence Minister Amir Hatami
was quoted as saying by the Islamic Republic News Agency
(IRNA). He said Iran would defeat an American and Israeli
alliance.
U.S. officials believe Iran encouraged Houthi militants
or Iraq-based Shi'ite militias to carry out Sunday's attacks on four
tankers near the Strait of Hormuz, two U.S. government sources said
on Wednesday. The sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity
and who are familiar with U.S. national security assessments, said
they viewed the attacks as a serious provocation by Iran which posed
a significant threat to shipping.
Gone, at least for now, are the halcyon days when strong
military and political ties between Britain and the United States
meant that Washington could assume it had a staunch partner for
standing up to a foreign foe. Dating back to World War II and
including joint actions against Kosovo, Afghanistan and the two wars
against Iraq, U.S. leaders have been able to count on Britain to take
part in invasions and airstrikes, and to help persuade sometimes cautious
European allies to offer political and logistical support.
President Barack Obama's fruitless effort to lure Iran's
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei into changing the behavior of his rogue regime
never had a chance because it began from the premise that appeasement
works. It never does. Appeasement didn't work with the Iran
nuclear deal, just as it failed in the "reset"
with Russia earlier in the Obama administration, and just as it
failed with the 1994 North Korea-U.S. "deal," which
Pyongyang had probably violated with its secret uranium enrichment
sites even as it put pen and ink to paper.
As summer approaches in the Arabian Gulf, geopolitical
tensions are rising as fast as the temperature. Saudi Arabia says it
has suffered drone attacks on land-based oil pumping stations, and
that two of its oil tankers were sabotaged. Two other tankers,
including one flagged to NATO ally Norway, were also reportedly
damaged by small explosive devices. The seaborne incidents all
occurred off the coast of the United Arab Emirates at a maritime
oil-bunkering station.
Headlines this week might make you think President Trump
is itching for war with Iran. Truth is, he doesn't need to, because
his sanctions are working - as Tehran's response proves. Yes, Team
Trump sent a Navy carrier battle group into the Gulf, and on
Wednesday, the US embassy in Baghdad also ordered all non-essential,
non-emergency staff out of Iraq immediately. But this was part of a
response to intelligence reports that Iran may be about to strike US
interests in the region, most likely via one of its terrorist or
"independent" militia proxies.
Iran's top defense official predicted Wednesday that the
Islamic Republic would vanquish the US and its ally Israel if his
country is attacked. "We will defeat the American-Zionist
front," Minister of Defense Amir Hatami said, according to the Islamic
Republic News Agency, which also ripped the US for escalating the
conflict between the two countries.
RUSSIA, SYRIA, ISRAEL, HEZBOLLAH, LEBANON & IRAN
The growing tension between the United States and Iran
in recent days might result in Iran-backed organizations, especially
Hezbollah, acting against Israel if Tehran deems it suitable for its
interests. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah understands the Lebanese
public will not forgive him for starting the Third Lebanon War -
which would most likely lead to partial destruction of Lebanon - all
in the name of Iran.
The US State Department has released a video alleging
that Iran has established a military training base in Lebanon in
close proximity to Rayak Air Force base near the border with Syria.
According to David Daoud, a research analyst on Hezbollah and Lebanon
at United Against Nuclear Iran, while the video suggests that IRGC
base was discovered this past February, it "could be much
older." Nevertheless, the fact that the base is in close
proximity to Rayak air base shows two things, Daoud said.
"First, how compromised the eastern Lebanese-Syrian border is to
entry of "resistance axis" elements and the Lebanese
state's inability to properly police its territory against Iranian
penetration. The IRGC base's proximity to the LAF's Rayak Air Base
only underscores this," he said. "Second, it further
demonstrates unification of the "Resistance Axis" that
Nasrallah and other Iranian proxy-militia leaders have often
mentioned, where in a future war (say, against Israel) Hezbollah
would not fight alone, but would be joined by other forces."
GULF STATES, YEMEN, & IRAN
Houthi rebels allied with Tehran have finished pulling
forces out of three Red Sea ports in Yemen, the United Nations said,
a withdrawal that comes as the U.S. has warned of heightened
threats from Iran and its proxies in the region. The four-day
withdrawal, including from the strategic city of Hodeidah, is vital
to keeping alive a U.N.-brokered cease-fire struck in
December between the Houthis and the internationally recognized
government in Yemen backed by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
The United Arab Emirates will show restraint after
attacks on oil tankers off its coast and is committed to
de-escalation during a "difficult situation" caused by Iranian
behavior in the region, a senior official said on
Wednesday. Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Anwar Gargash
said he would not speculate about who was behind Sunday's sabotage
acts on four vessels, including two Saudi tankers, near Fujairah emirate
while an investigation was under way and due to be completed within
days.
Saudi Arabia accused Iran on Thursday of ordering the
drone attacks by Yemen's Houthi rebels against its oil facilities,
potentially heightening tensions in a major oil-producing region.
Prince Khalid Bin Salman, the vice minister for defense and brother
of Saudi Arabia's de facto ruler, said in comments on Twitter that
the attack by Iranian-backed Houthis undermined political efforts to
resolve tensions in the Gulf. His comments come as Saudi-led
coalition forces launched airstrikes against Houthi positions in
Yemen.
OTHER FOREIGN AFFAIRS
German Chancellor Angela Merkel says that Europe needs
to "reposition" itself in a changing world and is welcoming
European powers' unity over Iran, a contrast with their deep
divisions over the Iraq war 16 years ago. Merkel said in an interview
with Germany's daily Sueddeutsche Zeitung released Wednesday that
Europe needs "forward-looking" arguments and stressed that
"simply pointing to seven decades of peace is no longer enough
to justify Europe."
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