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TOP STORIES
An initial U.S. assessment indicated Iran likely was
behind the attack on two Saudi Arabian oil tankers and two other
vessels damaged over the weekend near the Strait of Hormuz, a U.S.
official said, a finding that, if confirmed, would further inflame
military tensions in the Persian Gulf. The assessment, while not
conclusive, was the first suggestion by any nation that Iran was
responsible for the attack and comes after a series of U.S. warnings
against aggression by Iran or its allies and proxies against military
or commercial vessels in the region.
At a meeting of President Trump's top national security
aides last Thursday, Acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan
presented an updated military plan that envisions sending as many as
120,000 troops to the Middle East should Iran attack American forces
or accelerate work on nuclear weapons, administration officials said.
The revisions were ordered by hard-liners led by John R. Bolton, Mr.
Trump's national security adviser. They do not call for a land
invasion of Iran, which would require vastly more troops, officials
said.
Ali Al-Ahmed is a veteran critic of the Saudi
government, so late last year he was not surprised to receive a
Twitter message purporting to be from an Egyptian woman living in
London who said that she, too, was a Saudi opponent. But Mr.
Al-Ahmed, who is based in Washington, was wary of the woman, who
identified herself as Mona A. Rahman. "Her picture was too made
up, like the picture of a model," he recalled. Her Arabic was
imperfect.
UANI IN THE NEWS
Iran is suffering economically and politically thanks to
two big actions taken by President Trump, former independent Sen. Joe
Lieberman told FOX Business on Monday. "President Trump had the
guts to take us out of a bad nuclear agreement with Iran -- that's
the beginning -- big change," he told Maria Bartiromo.
"Second he imposed sanctions on the Iranian Revolutionary Guard
Corps -- also a big change and increased those sanctions. Iran is
hurting. So it has begun to threaten us and I appreciate very much that
the president has basically said with action sending American
military forces over to their region don't think you're going to
strike at us and not have us strike back at you."
NUCLEAR DEAL & NUCLEAR PROGRAM
The economic pain inflicted by President Donald Trump's
sanctions on Iranian oil exports was widely blamed for prompting
Tehran's threat last week to gradually roll back its compliance with
the 2015 nuclear deal. But it was a U.S. decision in early May to revoke
two waivers critical to the Islamic Republic's enrichment activities
that left it with a stark choice: either submit to Washington's will
and stop all uranium enrichment, or abandon some of its obligations
under the landmark accord -- and risk a rupture with European
signatories.
Iran insists on exporting at least 1.5 million
barrels per day (bpd) of oil, triple May's expected levels
under US sanctions, as a condition for staying in an
international nuclear deal, sources with knowledge of
Iran-EU talks were quoted by Reuters news agency as saying. The
figure was communicated in recent meetings between Iranian and
Western officials, including Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister
Mohammad Javad Zarif, but has not been set down in writing, four
European diplomatic sources said.
SANCTIONS, BUSINESS RISKS, & OTHER ECONOMIC
NEWS
The US is determined to choke off external funding to
Iran because we want to prevent it from financing missile
development, fomenting regional conflicts and funding terrorist
networks. Much of Iran's money comes from metal exports, including
$4.2bn from the sale of steel - a 53 per cent increase from 2017 -
and a further $917m from copper and its downstream products. The
country is on schedule to become a net exporter of aluminium by the
end of the year.
A lack of headlines is making headlines in Iran. The
economic hardship triggered by a year of U.S. sanctions has extended
to the Islamic Republic's newspapers, which are struggling to combat
fast-rising prices -- and shortages -- of both paper and printing
ink. At a time when Iran's on front pages around the world, two
government-owned dailies have cut coverage while journalists fret
about possible layoffs.
Iran's Foreign Minister Javad Zarif will hold talks with
his counterpart in the Indian capital on Tuesday after New Delhi
stopped purchases of Iranian oil this month in the wake of renewed
U.S. sanctions. India was Iran's top oil client after China,
but halted imports after Washington reimposed sanctions on Iran and
later withdrew waivers to eight nations, including India, which had
allowed them to import some Iranian oil.
PROTESTS & HUMAN RIGHTS
A group of Iranian university students held a campus
protest Monday against authorities' increasing pressure on women to
wear mandatory headscarves in public. The semi-official ISNA news
agency said the Tehran University students - both men and women - briefly
scuffled with another group of students who support the country's
conservative dress code. The rally ended after a few hours. Deputy
head of the university, Majid Sarsangi, told ISNA that there were no
new measures in place regarding compulsory hijab at the
university.
Iranian pro-government activists have assaulted Tehran
University students staging a peaceful protest against heightened
enforcement of religious restrictions during the Muslim holy month of
Ramadan. Videos verified by VOA Persian and received from social
media users in Iran showed the pro-government activists marching on
the university grounds and scuffling with student protesters in
Monday's incident.
U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS & NEGOTIATIONS
U.S. President Donald Trump warned on Monday Iran would "suffer
greatly" if it targeted U.S. interests after Washington deployed
an aircraft carrier and more jet fighters at a time of rising
tensions with Tehran. "We'll see what happens with Iran.
If they do anything, it will be a very bad mistake," Trump told
reporters at the White House. "If they do anything they will
suffer greatly."
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is set to make his first
diplomatic trip to Russia on Tuesday to meet with his counterpart,
Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, and President Vladimir V. Putin. The
three have a great deal of territory to cover, from many bubbling
international conflicts - where Washington and Moscow have often
found themselves on opposite sides - to a potential new arms treaty.
It is the highest level meeting between American and Russian
officials since President Trump met with Mr. Putin in Finland
last July.
European diplomats urged the United States to
exercise "maximum restraint" as tensions mount in the Gulf
a year after Washington withdrew from a landmark deal that curbed Iran's
nuclear programme. Federica Mogherini, the European Union's
diplomatic chief, stressed the need for dialogue following a meeting
with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who made a last-minute visit
to Brussels on Monday to share information on "escalating"
threats from Iran.
U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo shared information
on "escalating" threats from Iran with European allies and
NATO officials during meetings in Brussels on Monday, the U.S.
special representative for Iran said. "Iran is an
escalating threat and this seemed like a timely visit on his way to
Sochi," Brian Hook told reporters, referring to Pompeo's planned
visit to Russia on Tuesday for meetings with Russian President
Vladimir Putin and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.
While Secretary of State Mike Pompeo may have been
hoping that a hastily arranged stop in Brussels today would
allow for photos and headlines showing American and European unity
and joint resolve in the face of rising tensions with Iran, European
allies did not seem interested in playing along. "We are very
worried about the risk of a conflict happening by accident, with an
escalation that is unintended really on either side," British
Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt said as he arrived at a meeting in Brussels
with his French and German counterparts and the EU foreign policy
chief today.
A festering four-year war, crippling sanctions, threats
to maritime oil trade and a US naval battlegroup steaming for the
Persian Gulf. Such developments were troubling enough, before
two Saudi tankers were reportedly sabotaged off the UAE coast on
Sunday - a development set to ratchet tensions between Tehran and
Washington to new and combustible highs.
Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) is asking Attorney
General William Barr to investigate if former Secretary of
State John Kerry broke federal law over his talks with
Iranian officials. Rubio sent a letter to Barr doubling
down on his request for the Justice Department to investigate Kerry,
a request he also made last year to then-Attorney General Jeff
Sessions.
IRANIAN INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS
Recent remarks by Iran's education minister about 14
million schoolchildren being ready to go to war, has led to public
outcry and condemnations among Iranians. Iranian officials have been
making bellicose remarks in recent weeks after tensions flared with
the United States. The Iranian Society for the Protection of the
Rights of Children has released a public letter May 12 on
social media addressed to the minister criticizing his comment.
CHINA & IRAN
Amid the Trump administration's all-time high pressure
on Iran, manifested in its decision not to extend sanctions waivers
granted to Tehran's key oil customers, Iran-US tensions are reaching
levels unseen in recent decades. To alleviate the burden on its
shoulders, Iran might not be fully capitalizing on China as its
leading oil buyer. Yet Beijing could continue to be a key part
of Iran's solution to mitigate the impacts of biting US
sanctions.
GULF STATES, YEMEN, & IRAN
An American military team's initial assessment is that
Iranian or Iranian-backed proxies used explosives Sunday to blow
large holes in four ships anchored off the coast of the United Arab
Emirates, a US official said Monday. The official said each ship has
a 5- to 10-foot hole in it, near or just below the water line, and
the team's early belief is that the holes were caused by explosive
charges. The team of US military experts was sent to investigate the
damages at the request of the UAE, but American officials have not
provided any details about what exactly happened or any proof as yet
about the possible Iranian involvement in the explosions.
Saudi Arabia claimed on Tuesday that Iran-backed Houthi
rebel drones targeted their oil pumping stations in what it called a
"cowardly" attack two days after Saudi oil tankers were
sabotaged off the coast of the United Arab Emirates. Saudi Energy
Minister Khalid al-Falih confirmed on Tuesday that two oil pumping
stations for the East-West pipeline had been hit by explosive-laden
drones, calling the attack "an act of terrorism" that
targeted global oil supplies.
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