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In his first public comments since President Trump
aborted an imminent attack on Iran last week, its top leader on
Wednesday ruled out any negotiations with Washington and said that
only the threat of military force provides protection from American
domination. "Negotiation is an effort to deceive into doing what
the U.S. desires," said Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei,
according to the English translation on his official website.
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that he
was "not talking boots on the ground" should he take
military action against Iran and that he had "unlimited
time" to try to forge an agreement with Tehran. Iran
suggested it was just one day from breaching a limit in the 2015
nuclear deal that restricted its stockpile of uranium, a move that
would pressure European countries aiming to be neutral to pick
sides.
European governments will double down this week on their
efforts to keep alive economic ties with Iran, officials said,
providing a credit line to help a special mechanism establish a route
for trade between Iran and the West. The Europeans are planning to
take the step despite Tehran's threat to disregard some commitments
under the 2015 nuclear deal and in the face of Washington's
demand to maximize economic pressure against Iran.
UANI IN THE NEWS
...While Toby Dershowitz, Foundation for Defense of
Democracies (FDD) senior vice president for government relations and
strategy, said: "As victims of its corruption, the people of
Iran know best that their government runs amok of global standards.
But the security and integrity of the global financial system are
also victims of Iran's willful and persistent failure to comply with
FATF's standards." While United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI)
chief executive and co-founder Mark Wallace said: "As long as
Iran chooses to remain an extremist regime, it should remain closed
for business."
NUCLEAR DEAL & NUCLEAR PROGRAM
Iran told the UN Security Council on Wednesday that it
cannot "alone" save the nuclear deal, turning up pressure
on the Europeans, Russia and China as it moved toward a possible
breach of its commitments to limit its nuclear activities. "Iran
has done a lot and much more than its fair share to preserve the
nuclear deal," Ambassador Majid Takht Ravanchi told a council
meeting.
Iran is set to breach the 2015 nuclear deal for the
first time on Thursday, piling pressure on European powers attempting
to salvage it from crippling U.S. sanctions and avert a slide toward
war. Iran's atomic energy agency has said the country will probably
exceed a cap on stockpiles of low-grade uranium on June 27, and could
early next month raise enrichment purity beyond a 3.67% limit put in
place to prevent Iran from making weapons-grade material.
Amid escalating tensions with the United States,
Iran said on June 17 that by Thursday it would surpass the
limit on the uranium supply permitted under the 2015 nuclear
agreement, a potentially combustible new phase in the country's
confrontation with Washington. The declaration came days after the
United States accused Iran of attacking two oil tankers,
and days before Iran shot down an American drone and
President Trump approved, then aborted, a strike in retaliation.
Iran will exceed limits on low-enriched uranium set by
the 2015 nuclear accord unless Britain, France and Germany take
timely, practical steps to preserve the agreement that is "now
in critical condition," the Iranian ambassador to the U.N. said
Wednesday. Majid Takht Ravanchi told a Security Council meeting that
the three European countries, which support the deal, and the United
States, which pulled out of it, will have to "accept the full
responsibility for any possible consequences" if serious steps
aren't taken.
Iran's United Nations envoy described his country's
nuclear deal with world powers as being in "critical
condition" on Wednesday and warned "Iran alone cannot,
shall not and will not take all of the burdens anymore to
preserve" the 2015 agreement. "As long as illegal
sanctions are in place, one cannot be expected to trust the offer for
an honest and genuine dialogue," Ambassador Majid Takht Ravanchi
said of talks with the United States.
Iran is still short of the maximum amount of enriched
uranium it is allowed to have under its deal with major powers but it
is on course to reach that limit at the weekend, the latest data from
U.N. nuclear inspectors shows, diplomats say. This makes it unlikely
Iran will follow through on its threat to violate one of the nuclear
deal's central restrictions on Thursday, which could have unravelled
the pact altogether. It also sets up a meeting with other
signatories on Friday aimed at saving the accord, which is straining
under U.S. pressure.
French President Emmanuel Macron warned Iran on Thursday
not to quit its 2015 nuclear deal or give signals that it intended to
do so, and said he would discuss efforts to avoid military escalation
with U.S. President Donald Trump. U.S. allies in Europe have
been alarmed by an escalation between the United States and Iran in
recent weeks, which culminated last week when Trump ordered air
strikes only to call them off minutes before impact.
Iran is on the verge of crossing a key line included in the
nuclear deal it reached with the U.S. and other powers in 2015. As
soon as Thursday, it's expected to announce that its uranium
stockpiles have exceeded limits set by the deal. "I think it's a
major bridge for them to go across," says David Albright, president
of the Institute for Science and International Security, which
monitors Iran's nuclear program.
Europe urged Iran on Wednesday to continue implementing
its commitments under a 2015 nuclear deal and not disregard them in
retaliation for the reimposition of U.S. economic sanctions.
"Today we may be at a critical juncture regarding the future of the
JCPOA," European Union Ambassador to the U.N. Joao Vale de
Almeida said, using the acronym for the nuclear deal. "Yet, it
should be recalled that the JCPOA is a nuclear agreement that has
been working and delivering on its goals.
If the US had not pulled out of the Iran nuclear deal,
Iran would be a stronger aggressor today because the restrictions on
its nuclear program would have been lifted eventually, US Special Representative
for Iran Brian Hook told Al Arabiya English on the sidelines of the
'Peace to Prosperity' workshop in Bahrain. "We have put in place
the right foreign policy at the right time- it is long overdue.
SANCTIONS, BUSINESS RISKS, & OTHER ECONOMIC
NEWS
The head of Iran's Revolutionary Guards said on
Wednesday that recent U.S. sanctions against Tehran were a desperate
measure after downing of U.S. drone in the Gulf of Oman by
Iran. "The recent U.S. sanctions against the Guards
commanders show their desperation and anger in face of Iranian
prowess," Hossein Salami was quoted as saying by the state news
agency IRNA. Salami said after downing of a U.S. drone by the
Guards, U.S. resorted to "illogical and senseless"
reactions to save face.
The United States has asked the UN Security Council to
update its sanctions blacklist on Iran after complaining of lapses in
enforcing travel bans and asset freezes, according to a letter seen
by AFP on Wednesday. The push for tougher enforcement of UN sanctions
came amid soaring tensions between the United States and Iran
following Washington's decision to impose new sanctions on Tehran and
recent attacks on oil tankers in the Gulf.
China is buying Iranian oil in defiance of US sanctions
and providing what Tehran hopes will be a financial lifeline for the
country's buckling economy. Although Beijing customs data show crude
purchases from Iran are down month-on-month, China is still importing
Tehran's oil despite US measures designed to cut exports to
"zero". Last week the Chinese received their first delivery
of an Iranian oil cargo since the Trump administration in May
scrapped exemptions on Iranian sanctions.
PROTESTS & HUMAN RIGHTS
Richard Ratcliffe calls what Iran is doing "hostage
diplomacy." He has been on a hunger strike for 12
days. Camped outside the Iranian Embassy in London,
his message is simple: His wife, Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe, must
be freed. Nazanin was arrested while visiting her mother with her
then 2-year-old daughter in Tehran three years ago and ultimately
convicted of trying to overthrow the regime, charges her family calls
false. They believe she is nothing but a bargaining chip.
U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS & NEGOTIATIONS
Iran's supreme leader said his country wouldn't back
down in the face of U.S. sanctions, days after President
Trump targeted him personally with a new round of measures
to further isolate the country. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Wednesday
called U.S. pressure "obvious tyranny" and
labeled Washington the "most hated, evil government in the
world," demonstrating how the U.S. and Iran remain locked in a
standoff over Tehran's nuclear program and American economic sanctions.
The U.S. special envoy for Iran, Brian Hook, is meeting
with French, German and British top diplomats in Paris for talks on
the Persian Gulf crisis at a time when European powers are trying to
save the 2015 nuclear deal struck with Tehran. European countries
want to avoid a further escalation in tensions between the U.S. and
Iran and are trying to convince Iran not to leave the nuclear deal,
which the U.S. pulled out of last year.
Iran warned the United States against violating its
borders, with parliament speaker Ali Larijani threatening a stronger
reaction, the Tasnim news agency said on Thursday, a week after
Tehran shot down a U.S. drone, spiking tension between them.
"The downing of their drone was a good experience for them to
avoid any aggression against our borders," the semi-official
agency quoted Larijani as saying late on Wednesday.
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that any
war between the United States and Iran would be swift, although he
reiterated his desire to avoid a military confrontation even as he
blasted Tehran's leaders. "I hope we don't, but we're in a very
strong position if something should happen," Trump told Fox
Business Network when asked if a war was brewing. "I'm not
talking boots on the ground ... I'm just saying if something would
happen, it wouldn't last very long."
U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said in an interview
with local media in India on Wednesday that the United States had
done everything it could to de-escalate tensions with Iran.
"If there is conflict, if there is war, if there is a kinetic
activity, it will be because the Iranians made that choice. I hope
that they do not," Pompeo told broadcaster India Today from New
Delhi, where he is on an official visit.
As fear of a conflict with Iran rises, Democrats
want to make clear that they will not support any offensive military
action against the country unless there is prior authorization from
Congress. But they have already come to the realization that their
message will have little practical effect, as the Republican-led
Senate won't pass a duo of Democratic measures.
Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey was the only candidate
who refused to commit to re-entering the Iran nuclear deal on
Wednesday during the first 2020 Democratic debate of the presidential
campaign. Ten candidates, including Sen. Elizabeth Warren, New
York Mayor Bill De Blasio and former Texas Rep. Beto O'Rourke, faced
off around issues such as healthcare, gun laws, abortion and immigration.
On Tuesday, President Trump tweeted a warning to
Iran that an attack "on anything American will be met with
great and overwhelming force. In some areas, overwhelming will mean
obliteration." The threat comes days after the New York
Times reported that Trump backed down from retaliating
against Iran for downing a U.S. surveillance drone. People have speculated
about the reasons for Trump's decision to back down, especially
given his statement that the expected casualties from a U.S. strike
weren't "proportionate to shooting down an unmanned drone."
In a world of global financial markets, 5G networks and
cyberwar, geography still rules. The two shipping lanes in the Strait
of Hormuz, each two miles wide, hold the key to the Persian Gulf
and roughly half of the world's proven oil reserves and production
capacity. That is why the recent attacks, widely assumed to have been
ordered by Iran, on tankers in the Gulf of Oman, a strategic waterway
just outside the Strait, has frayed geopolitical nerves the world
over.
One of us (Max Boot) was critical of the 2015 Iran
nuclear deal - the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. The other
supported it. We both agreed, however, that, with Iran abiding by
the JCPOA, it was a mistake for President Trump to exit the
agreement in 2018. That move, followed by the imposition of
sanctions, has created the current standoff with Iran that nearly led
to war last week. But there is no way to unscramble this omelet.
The U.S. remains on a collision course with Iran. Donald
Trump continues to declare minimalist objectives - direct talks
focused on nuclear activities - while his advisers pursue maximalist
ends, ranging from a list of demands that Iran cannot hope to meet to
regime change. His administration, meanwhile, is working to strangle
Iran's economy through sanctions with no consistent aim. Iran, in
turn, has no clear understanding of what it is being asked to do, and
thus views U.S. moves in existential terms.
IRANIAN INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS
Iran plans to scrap a law banning women from passing
their nationality to their children, which human rights experts said
could help thousands of children living in legal limbo by letting
them acquire citizenship. Iran is one of 25 countries that do not
permit women married to foreigners to hand their nationality to their
children. Citizenship experts say such laws can fuel statelessness,
potentially depriving people of basic rights such as education,
health care, housing and employment, and leaving them vulnerable to
exploitation.
Iran's tax collection in the first quarter of the
current Iranian calendar year (beginning March 21) shows a 28%
increase compared with the same period in the previous year, Iran's
Minister of Economy has claimed. Without providing details, Farhad
Dezhpasand said on Tuesday, June 25, the government managed to
collect 240 trillion rials (approximately $2 billion based on free
market rates) of tax revenues in the first quarter of the current
year.
CONGRESS & IRAN
Senate Republicans are confident they have the votes to
defeat a bipartisan amendment that would require congressional
approval for any military action President Trump takes
against Iran. The amendment, which Democrats want to attach to the
annual National Defense Authorization Act, would require 60
votes to pass. That means at least 13 Republicans would have to join
all 47 Democrats - including two independents who caucus with
Democrats - to pass the amendment.
RUSSIA, SYRIA, ISRAEL, HEZBOLLAH, LEBANON & IRAN
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Wednesday
that Moscow will try to persuade the United States and Iran to start
"civilized" dialogue. "This, of course, assumes
the end to the policy of ultimatums, sanctions and blackmail,"
Lavrov told a briefing.
The Iran-backed Lebanese Shi'ite group Hezbollah
believes a U.S. war on Iran is unlikely and U.S. President Donald
Trump would not be able to control the results of a conflict that
could engulf the region. Sheikh Naim Qassem, in an interview
with Lebanon's al-Joumhouria newspaper, said such a war would be
fought on many fronts, not just one, meaning losses would be countless.
GULF STATES, YEMEN, & IRAN
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has warned that
some nations in the Persian Gulf are pushing the U.S. and Iran
towards a military conflict, and should instead focus on facilitating
dialogue. Speaking with journalists on Wednesday, Lavrov said a
military conflict between Washington and Tehran would be an
"international crisis" that would be "detrimental to
both the Middle East and Africa," state news agency Tass
reported.
CYBERWARFARE
A claim by US officials that a retaliatory cyber attack
ordered by the White House crippled Iranian missile launching systems
will remain almost impossible to substantiate, experts say. Citing
unnamed sources, US media reported last week that the attack launched
by the US Cyber Command disabled computers of the Iranian
Revolutionary Guard unit responsible for shooting down an American
surveillance drone over the Strait of Hormuz on June 20.
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