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TOP STORIES
General Electric Co. is planning to end sales of oil and
natural-gas equipment later this year in Iran, people familiar with
the matter said, illustrating how U.S. withdrawal from the nuclear
deal is shutting a narrow window of opportunity for some American
businesses there. GE had big ambitions in Iran after world powers,
including the U.S., agreed to lift many sanctions on Tehran in 2016
in exchange for curbs on Iran's nuclear program. GE's foreign
subsidiaries were preparing as much as $150 million in bids for
pipelines, compressors and subsea equipment in Iran and had been in
talks with an Iranian manufacturer to make energy equipment, the
people said.
South Korea's Daelim Industrial said on Friday that a
contract worth 2.23 trillion won ($2.08 billion) for a refinery
project in Iran was canceled. The order was canceled as the Esfahan
Refinery Upgrading Project failed to procure financing because of
economic sanctions imposed on Iran, Daelim said in a regulatory
filing.
More than $59 billion in hard currency has left Iran
during last two years, Islamic Parliament Research Center (IPRC) has
disclosed. According to IPRC, following the United States withdrawal
from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) or Tehran's
nuclear deal with world power, more billions are expected to leave
Iran in the coming months.
UANI IN THE NEWS
During the last days of 2017, small demonstrations in
Iran mushroomed into a nationwide movement, eventually engulfing
eighty-five cities. At the time, the protests were thought to have
provoked the poor working classes to revolt against economic
mismanagement and financial decline... A closer look four months
later reveals a different aggrieved population triggered the year-end
protests, albeit one that still poses a problem for the Islamic
Republic. This was a rebellion by what can best be labeled the
middle-class poor.
NUCLEAR DEAL & NUCLEAR PROGRAM
The European Union and China say they will do their
utmost to keep afloat an international agreement to stop Iran
developing nuclear weapons despite the U.S. abandoning the
pact.
The remaining parties to the Iran nuclear deal have
warned the United States that its decision to withdraw from the pact
jeopardizes Russian and Chinese efforts to limit Iran's ability to
develop atomic weapons, Western diplomats told Reuters.
SANCTIONS, BUSINESS RISKS, & OTHER ECONOMIC
NEWS
Europe's temporary waiver from U.S. import quotas on
steel and aluminum is about to expire, and most experts are
pessimistic that a U.S.-EU trade war can be avoided. They can't
fathom a trade deal that would satisfy both U.S. President Donald
Trump and European Union leaders - at least not a conventional trade
deal. But a conventional trade deal does not seem to be what the
Trump White House really has in mind. Instead, it wants to exchange
trade peace for foreign and security policy concessions.
France's Foreign Minister said on Thursday that the
European Union has made some progress on measures to protect the
bloc's companies from U.S. sanctions on Iran but these were still
insufficient.
French oil major Total said Friday the probability of
winning an exemption from US sanctions against Iran to continue a
major gas field project was very faint.
Japan will try to avoid any sudden reduction in its
Iranian crude oil imports and may seek some form of exemption from
the renewed US sanctions regime, an official at the country's
ministry of economy, trade and industry, Daisuke Hirota, said
Wednesday.
Iran is taking a firm line with its OPEC counterparts
that could threaten the current 24-country crude producer alliance,
warning members not to take its market share it risks losing under US
sanctions.
Iran's Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh... has asked OPEC to
support his country against what he called "illegal, unilateral
and extraterritorial sanctions," a reference to U.S.
interference... However, the quandary for Iran in this overture is
arch-rival and OPEC defacto leader Saudi Arabia. With ongoing
geopolitical tensions in the Middle East between Saudi Arabia and
Iran as well as being on opposing sides in both the Syrian and Yemen
conflicts, there's little hope that OPEC kingpin and the world's top
oil exporter Saudi Arabia will concede to Zanganeh's call for
assistance. Moreover, Saudi Arabia has already indicated that it
would pump more barrels to make up for lost Iranian oil production
due to new sanctions.
U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS
US President Donald Trump's staunch opposition to the
nuclear agreement with Iran (the JCPOA) has sparked a serious
transatlantic rift. The EU is, however, attempting to balance its
appetite for business with an examination of security risks. In so
doing, it is slowly awakening to Israeli and Sunni Arab sensitivities
regarding Tehran's hegemonic aspirations in the Middle East.
SYRIA, RUSSIA, ISRAEL, HEZBOLLAH, LEBANON & IRAN
Although EU foreign ministers also touched upon other
issues outside the scope of the nuclear deal with Iran, in particular
the "EU's concerns over Iran's ballistic missiles programme and
the role of Iran in regional conflicts, not least in Syria and
Yemen", it seems reluctant to raise them with Iran... EU foreign
policy chief Mogherini said in remarks after the Council meeting that
"the other issues can be discussed in separate fora", which
would imply that they have not been discussed yet with Iran. Her
spokesperson only referred to previous and future meetings without
confirming whether Iran's role in Syria and its military threats were
on the agenda.
Just how deep does Iran's influence run in Syria? After
a half decade of overt and covert Iranian military assistance to the
regime of Bashar al-Assad, the Iranian regime is widely understood to
be playing a key role in the Syrian theater. But, according to a new
study from the Omran Center for Strategic Studies, an Istanbul-based
think tank focused on the Syrian conflict, this backing is far
broader than commonly understood, and encompasses not just military
assistance but also an extensive web of economic and political
contacts that are designed to give the Iranian regime a lasting
presence on the territory of its top regional ally.
Iran-backed forces, including Hezbollah, are preparing
to withdraw from southern Syria against the backdrop of regional and
international negotiations currently underway between the United
States, Russia and Jordan over the war-torn country's future, the
Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported Thursday.
Israel is prepared to support the return of Syrian
government forces to its northern border in exchange for the ousting
of Hezbollah and Iran from a 70 to 80 kilometer zone in that
area.
The U.S. withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal opens the
way to raising pressure on Tehran to stop its military support for
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and leave the country, a Syrian
opposition leader said on Thursday.
A top commander in the Israeli army said Thursday that
if Iran finds itself in trouble in Syria, it could again mobilize its
ally in Gaza, Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), to attack Israel as a
distraction.
Despite denying the existence of any international
"vetoes" against the participation of "Hezbollah"
in the new Lebanese cabinet, ministerial sources told Asharq Al-Awsat
that western warnings were sent to several officials against referring
to the "citizens' right to resist occupations and
aggression" in its ministerial statement.
For seven years, Syrian rebels have held a chunk of
southwestern Syria. Now the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad is
planning an offensive to retake the area that borders Israel and
Jordan. This could create new conflict involving Washington, Moscow,
Israel, Jordan, Syria and Iran.
The Russian demand to remove all 'foreign forces' from
Syria isn't driven by Putin's love for Netanyahu or for Israel, but
because Iran is disrupting his efforts to stabilize the situation in
Syria and trying to compete with him over economic projects after the
end of the civil war.
IRANIAN INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS
Iranians sexually abused as children are sharing their
experiences by co-opting the #MeToo hashtag, following a scandal at a
Tehran school. On Tuesday night Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali
Khamenei, announced that he had instructed judges to hand down the
strongest possible sentence if a supervisor is convicted on charges
of raping or sexually abusing at least 16 boys at the school in the
west of the capital.
It started last week as an ordinary session in the
Majlis, Iran's parliament. But then, in the course of a speech,
Mohammad Reza Pour-Ebrahimi, chairman of the parliament's Economic
Affairs Committee, made an astounding statement. Between Jan. 21 and
March 20, he said "A sum of $30 billion was taken out of
Iran"... Iranian regime bluster has been a constant for more
than 39 years. And the leadership's boasts about Iran's strength are
nothing new, even as they are increasingly hollow. What has changed
now, however, is that senior regime officials also recognize the
regime is in a death spiral; they no longer believe their own lies.
Increasingly it looks like Iran's top officials are trying to
squirrel away nest eggs at an unprecedented pace as they prepare for
the inevitable.
GULF STATES, YEMEN, & IRAN
The United States on Wednesday imposed new sanctions on
Iran, including six people and three entities. Among the people
included in the sanctions, the name Hameed Ostad, the controversial
figure in the Iranian city of Mashhad, who planned to attack the
Saudi consulate in the city on the evening of January 2, 2016.
While Yemeni legitimate forces march towards Hodeida,
which is the most important port for the rebels, Tehran is offering
to negotiate on Yemen.
IRAQ & IRAN
As Iraq shapes a government from its May 12 election,
the indecisive electoral outcome again will leave Iran in a position
to affect both the choice of a prime minister, and the tenor of the
underlying administration. How Iran wields that influence is likely
to depend on how well the European Union is able to defend the Iran
nuclear accord following the United States' withdrawal.
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