Israel and the Iranian Bomb
A briefing by Steven J.
Rosen
April 27, 2009
http://www.meforum.org/2133/israel-and-the-iranian-bomb
(includes
an audio recording of this talk)
On April 27, four days before being cleared of all charges
in the AIPAC case, Steven J. Rosen assessed the Iranian threat for the
Middle East Forum in Philadelphia. Mr. Rosen is a visiting fellow at the
Middle East Forum where he focuses on the Iranian threat. He is also
director of the Forum's Washington Project, for which he edits the Obama Mideast
Monitor blog and the Policy Forum series of
essays. After earning a Ph.D. from Syracuse, Dr. Rosen held faculty
positions at several universities; he then served as the director of
foreign policy issues for the American Israel Public Affairs Committee
from 1982 to 2005.
He outlined how the threat first emerged and developed over
the past fifteen years, as the West's attention was directed elsewhere.
Such negligence has led to the fact that Tehran currently poses the single
greatest immediate danger to Israel, the Arab world, and possibly even the
United States.
Aside from well-known facts, such as Iran's sponsorship of
Hamas in Gaza and insurgent forces in Iraq, recent months have witnessed
further examples of Iran's unchecked belligerence: Iranian-backed
Hezbollah continues to destabilize Lebanon; Iranian operatives were
arrested in Egypt for plotting to overthrow the government; Iran occupies
islands belonging to the United Arab Emirates; and the speaker of the
Iranian parliament has claimed that Bahrain is part of his country.
Most disturbing of all, Iran is on pace to complete its
first nuclear weapon as early as next year. Mr. Rosen warned that this
would redraw the strategic landscape of the Middle East. On the one hand,
the mullahs might decide to use the bomb as soon as it becomes
operational, fearing an Israeli strike. The constant hate-mongering
emanating from the theocrats makes this a distinct possibility. On the
other hand, an emboldened Iran could employ "a nuclear weapon as an
umbrella," deterring responses to its aggression. Mr. Rosen further opined
that if Iran obtains the bomb, Arab nations will feel more pressured to
attain their own, creating an even more volatile Middle East.
Diplomatically, the Obama administration is reaching out to
Iran, an approach that Mr. Rosen does not oppose, though he predicts will
prove futile. With Iranian elections scheduled for June, negotiations are
not likely to commence until fall. Mr. Rosen expects Barack Obama
ultimately to tire of being strung along by the mullahs. But when? And
will that be too late? How many more months must then pass as the U.S.
government works to convince an increasingly complacent international
community to apply drastic pressure on Iran? Time is short; Mr. Rosen
further doubts that even the strongest economic sanctions could stop Iran
as it enters its "final sprint" toward nuclear armament.
In such a desperate scenario, Israeli leaders may see no
alternative but to take matters into their own hands, even if an attack on
Iranian nuclear facilities lead to significant problems for the United
States, which has vulnerable assets and interests at stake in the region.
Another consideration is the fact that, even if the U.S. is not involved
with an Israeli operation, the former would be viewed as a collaborator
due to its airspace control of the Middle East, not to mention the popular
conspiracy theories that conflate Israeli policies with U.S. policies and
vice-versa. Even Prime Minister Netanyahu who, according to Mr. Rosen, is
"not a dove," would have a "pretty formidable assignment to strike Iran
against the will of your principal ally."
However, as Rosen noted, Israel is "not necessarily a
permanent fact." Faced with this existential threat, Israel may risk
striking Iran in the hope of avoiding the more apocalyptic risk of a
nuclear-armed, millenarian Islamist state that has openly and vociferously
made clear time and time again its intentions of wiping Israel from the
map.
The sooner the Obama administration acknowledges and
responds to these stark facts, the better for all concerned. If left alone
and forced to make a decision, in the interest of survival, Israel may
have no choice but to choose the lesser of two evils and attack.
Summary account by David Rusin.
Related Topics: Iran, Israel Steven J.
Rosen | 
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