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NYT: "The United States and other world powers went into another round of talks with Iran here on Friday with low expectations, but with Iran indicating that it would like to make progress on a fuel-swap arrangement originally designed by Washington as a confidence-building measure. The United States and its allies believe that Iran is enriching uranium far beyond its peaceful needs and trying to build a nuclear weapon, while Iran insists that its enrichment program is peaceful and says it has no intention of halting enrichment, as the United Nations Security Council has demanded. But Washington believes that Iran's position has been somewhat weakened by a new round of economic sanctions and a computer virus that has disrupted some of its enrichment of uranium, delaying the estimated timetable for an Iranian bomb. The negotiators held an initial two hours of talks behind closed doors on Friday and resumed later, but offered no immediate comment on their deliberations. The last round of talks between Iran and the five permanent members of the Security Council, plus Germany and the European Union, produced little in Geneva in December except an agreement to meet again here." http://nyti.ms/eHk476
Reuters: "Iran gave no sign of making concessions to world powers bent on coaxing it to curb its nuclear program at talks Friday, saying it would not discuss suspending sensitive uranium enrichment... Impatient with what some analysts have called Iran's zigzag diplomacy, the powers are looking for a clear sign from Tehran that it is ready to engage in a way that helps engender trust, even if there is no substantive progress. Iran's National Security Council issued a statement, quoted by Iranian television, saying the first session of talks on Friday was held in a 'positive atmosphere.' Iran's nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili is the council's secretary general. One of Jalili's aides in Istanbul drew a red line round its enrichment activities during the meeting. Uranium enriched to a low degree yields fuel for electricity or, if refined to a very high level, the fissile core of a nuclear bomb. 'We will not allow any talks linked to freezing or suspending Iran's enrichment activities to be discussed at the meeting in Istanbul,' Abolfazl Zohrevand said. 'So far this issue has not been discussed, has not been raised or mentioned by the other party,' Zohrevand said. 'Iran's nuclear rights cannot be discussed.'" http://reut.rs/iaC9LH
AP: "Iran said differences were narrowing Friday at talks with six world powers looking for curbs on Tehran's ability to turn its nuclear program toward making atomic arms, but others said it was too early to speak of progress. 'Compared to the Geneva talks, the negotiations in Istanbul are being held in a more positive way,' Iranian delegate Abolfazl Zohrevand said, referring to talks in the Swiss city that ended last month with an agreement on nothing more than to meet again in Turkey. 'There are good signs that the two sides will make progress.' A diplomat familiar with the talks, however, said the two sides stated their positions then broke for a buffet of chicken saltimbocca with smoked tomato squash, steamed seabass, ravioli, baldo pilaf with peas, couscous, grilled vegetables cheeses and deserts. The diplomat asked for anonymity in exchange for commenting on the closed meeting." http://wapo.st/fCHLsu
Nuclear Program & Sanctions
Guardian: "US officials believe Iran now has the 'technical ability' to make highly enriched uranium, an essential step towards building a nuclear bomb, according to a leaked US diplomatic cable. At a meeting of international nuclear experts in Vienna, a US representative said that 'Iran had now demonstrated centrifuge operations such that it had the technical ability to produce highly enriched uranium (HEU) if it so chose'. The meeting in April 2009 was hosted by Britain's ambassador to Austria, Simon Smith. The revelation comes as nuclear talks resume between Iranian officials and representatives of six world powers in Istanbul tomorrow. Expectations of compromise are low. Not all western governments share the US conclusion, but if true it suggests international sanctions have failed to deny Iran the know-how required to make a nuclear bomb. The production of HEU is generally agreed to be the most serious obstacle any aspiring nuclear state must overcome." http://bit.ly/getgge
Reuters: "China has renewed crude import pacts with Iran for 2011 by keeping the total supply amount almost the same as last year at about 460,000 barrels per day, two industry sources with direct knowledge of the deals told Reuters. Chinese state oil trader Zhuhai Zhenrong Corp, the world's largest lifter of Iranian crude by company, has agreed with National Iranian Oil Co (NIOC) to buy 240,000 barrels per day of Iranian crude for 2011. Sinopec Corp, Asia's top refiner and the country's ultimate dominant procecessor of Iranian oil, separately agreed to take 220,000 bpd of oil from NIOC for this year, a volume steady with last year. 'No change in volume, no change in the grades of oil supplies. All is the same as last year,' said the source, referring to the Zhenrong-NIOC agreement." http://reut.rs/hWO0Bj
Reuters: "In Moscow on Thursday, Ali Asghar Soltanieh, Iran's envoy to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), struck a defiant stance, saying enrichment would continue even if its nuclear facilities came under military attack. 'We have provided for another facility in Fordow near Qom,' Soltanieh said. 'It is, so to speak, a reserve facility, so that if a site is attacked, we can continue the enrichment process.' Iran's main enrichment complex is in Natanz. Fordow, a much smaller site that Tehran did not reveal to IAEA inspectors for over two years, is under construction inside a mountain bunker." http://reut.rs/fcnIRA
AP: "A leaked U.S. diplomatic cable claims the Swiss government linked economic sanctions against Iran and the resettlement of Guantanamo detainees to the tax evasion case against UBS AG in the United States. The July 1, 2009, cable obtained by WikiLeaks cites a senior U.S. diplomat in Bern saying the Swiss government would stop Swedish-owned company Colenco's involvement with an Iranian research reactor. According to the cable published by Norway's Aftenposten paper, Swiss Vice President Doris Leuthard also raised the possibility of taking in freed Guantanamo detainees to show Switzerland's commitment to resolving 'all issues between our countries' including the UBS case." http://wapo.st/eCjuPb
AP: "Turkey is urging Iran to offer assurances that it won't seek nuclear weapons, and says all countries have the right to the peaceful use of nuclear energy. Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu's remarks Thursday came before talks between Iran and world powers in Istanbul. He spoke during a news conference with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who urged Iran to allow inspection of its nuclear sites." http://wapo.st/fYSrg0
Human Rights
AFP: "Iran's hardline President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said on Thursday that homosexuality is 'against the human spirit,' the ILNA news agency reported. In a 2007 speech at New York's Columbia University, he notoriously said 'in Iran we don't have homosexuals like in your country,' skirting a question about the treatment of gays in the Islamic republic. He was met with howls and boos from the audience and his remarks were later widely criticised by rights groups. Addressing officials in the city of Yazd on Thursday, he said: 'They asked me (at Columbia) why you crack down on homosexuals in Iran? I answered we don't have so many homosexuals in Iran because we believe this act is against the human spirit and humanity.'" http://bit.ly/gcx3kk
Foreign Affairs
Bloomberg: "Senegalese President Abdoulaye Wade told his government to return the country's ambassador to Tehran, five weeks after the official was recalled following a diplomatic dispute over a seized Iranian arms shipment. Wade's decision, detailed in minutes published on the government's official website today, follows a 24-hour visit to Senegal by Iran's interim foreign minister, Ali Akbar Salehi. The partial normalization of relations between the two Muslim nations was mediated by Turkish President Abdullah Gul, according to the minutes. Iran plans to provide as much as $200 million dollars for joint economic projects between his country and Senegal, Salehi said yesterday in an interview with the state-run Islamic Republic News Agency." http://bloom.bg/eE8D2o
Opinion & Analysis
Julian Borger in The Guardian: "The monotony of low expectations surrounding Iranian nuclear talks was momentarily broken today by reports that Iran might be ready to resume bargaining in Istanbul over a 2009 proposal to export part of its enriched uranium stockpile in return for French-made fuel rods for its Tehran Research Reactor. The Iran delegation arriving in Istanbul for talks with the US, UK, France, Germany, Russia and China, denied any such intention, but then Reuters quoted Ali Asghar Soltanieh, the Iranian envoy to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) as telling reporters in Moscow that: 'We stand behind the Tehran declaration and are ready to carry out talks with the Vienna Group regarding a fuel swap.' The Tehran declaration was a version of the 2009 deal put together by Iran, Turkey and Brazil. But it was rejected by the West, mainly on the grounds that it contained no Iranian undertaking to stop making 20%-enriched uranium. Diplomats from the six-nation group (variously known as the 5+1 and 3+3 group) have said they are happy to revisit the fuel swap deal in Istanbul, but 20% enrichment must stop, and the originally negotiated figure for Iranian uranium to be shipped out (1200 kg) has to be revised upwards (probably more than doubled) to take into account all the uranium Iran has enriched since 2009." http://bit.ly/eslDiR
Robin Pomeroy in Reuters: "Oil's ascent towards $100 a barrel, which OPEC blames on western financial speculators, has handed Iran a windfall to help contain domestic discontent and take the sting out of sanctions designed to squeeze its economy. Tehran's financial room for manoeuvre is likely to expand, while oil prices are expected to stay firm following a rally that earlier this month took it to its highest level since October 2008. 'A particular challenge for the United States is that rising oil prices undermine policy on Iran,' said Simon Henderson, of the Gulf and Energy Policy Program at the Washington Institute think-tank. Washington has led the drive to isolate Iran and bring it to the negotiating table over its nuclear programme and says the sanctions are working. Along with the other four permanent members of the United Security Council and Germany, the United States and Iran are due to meet in Istanbul on Saturday and Sunday for talks it hopes will lead to an end to the nuclear stand-off. Henderson cited U.S. Department of Energy figures, however, that put Iran's January-November 2010 revenues at $64 billion, $11 billion higher than for the whole of 2009. A populous nation with high social costs, Iran needs a stronger oil price than its wealthier Gulf neighbours to avoid racking up a deficit. Its budget reckons on oil at $65 -- below current prices of around $90 a barrel, although roughly in line with some analysts' calculations of the level Tehran needs to balance its books. IHS Global Insight, for instance, assumes export volumes of just over 2 million barrels per day (bpd) from Iran, which means it would need oil at only $60-$70 for a balanced budget. Ramin Emadi of Middle East consultancy BEDigest.com predicted an average price of $80 for the Iranian year that runs until March 20, giving it a surplus of at least $15 per barrel." http://bit.ly/hyQsUv
Simon Henderson in WINEP: "On January 21-22, representatives of the United States, Britain, China, France, Germany, Iran, and Russia will meet in Istanbul for talks regarding the Islamic Republic's controversial nuclear program. The meetings -- a continuation of discussions held in Geneva in early December -- represent the diplomatic track toward a negotiated resolution of international concerns over Iran's nuclear activities. Tehran also faces a range of economic, financial, and trade sanctions imposed by the UN, European Union, and individual states. Other reported tactics -- such as viruses introduced into Iranian computers and assassination attempts on Iranian scientists, for which no state has claimed responsibility -- have created additional pressure. Although these measures appear to be slowing Iran's nuclear program, Tehran seems determined to continue its work while declining to fully explain itself... The current position of the United States and its international colleagues at the Istanbul talks this week is that, aside from explaining past nuclear behavior, Iran should not enrich uranium to any level. The challenge is to bridge the gap between merely delaying Iran's nuclear work and changing what is widely seen as Tehran's determination to develop a nuclear weapons capacity. More diplomacy and more United Nations sanctions seem necessary; additional covert action may be judged appropriate as well." http://bit.ly/ekRVWG
JPost Editorial: "Whether or not Dagan's 2015 forecast is overly optimistic, Iran's nuclear ambitions have apparently been humbled, and the time frame for a nuclear breakout has been pushed off. As a result, the question has been raised whether a reevaluation of sanction policies is in order. Some are calling for more efforts to engage the Islamist regime. 'The cyber worm may have set back Iran's nuclear program, but it is unlikely to alter its nuclear ambitions,' Ori Nir, the spokesman for Americans for Peace Now, told JTA. 'In order to introduce real change, the US and its international allies must change the manner in which they deal with Iran and start to comprehensively engage with Teheran.' No longer in quite as frenzied a rush against the clock, perhaps the international community can redouble efforts to woo Iran away from the nuclear option through dialogue, engagement advocates argue. Military brinkmanship or ratcheting up sanctions might have the unwanted result of pushing an embattled Islamic Republic toward an increasingly intransigent and extremist position, they claim. Collective punishment of the Iranian people might arouse the sympathies of the Muslim world against the West. And judging from the South African, Iraqi and North Korean precedents, sanctions have proved to be highly ineffective. But while there might be some truth to some these claims, it would be incredibly naïve to expect a nebulous 'engagement' policy to convince Iran to abandon a nuclear program that has earned it popularity domestically and heightened diplomatic influence internationally... The concern now, indeed, is that in light of the recent revelations on Iran's nuclear difficulties, the international community will lapse into complacency. With new forecasts pushing back the date for a nuclear-capable Iran, the sense of urgency in thwarting the Islamic Republic might dissipate. This must not be allowed to happen. Iran is bent on obtaining the bomb." http://bit.ly/h9EY8w
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