Friday, October 7, 2011

Eye on Iran: Insider: Iran Will Be 'Next Chernobyl'

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Top Stories


NewsCore: "The first Iranian nuclear power station is inherently unsafe and will probably cause a 'tragic disaster for humankind,' according to a document apparently written by an Iranian whistleblower. There is a 'great likelihood' that the Bushehr reactor could generate the next nuclear catastrophe after Chernobyl or Fukushima, says the document, which has been passed to The (London) Times by a reputable source and is attributed to a former member of the legal department of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran. It claims that Bushehr, which began operating last month after 35 years of intermittent construction, was built by 'second-class engineers' who bolted together Russian and German technologies from different eras; that it sits in one of the world's most seismically active areas but could not withstand a major earthquake; and that it has 'no serious training program' for staff or a contingency plan for accidents." http://t.uani.com/qsdghD

Der Spiegel: Olli Heinonen, the former deputy director of the International Atomic Energy Agency: "Today the facts are as follows: The conversion plant in Isfahan has produced 371 tons of uranium hexafluoride. Some 8,000 centrifuges in Natanz are being used to enrich this raw material. In February 2010, Iran began increasing enrichment to 20%. That's a significant step closer to making an atomic bomb because it takes only a few months to turn that into weapons-grade material. And at the beginning of this year, Fereydoun Abbasi was appointed the head of the atomic energy organization in Tehran... In early June, Abbasi announced that Iran was moving the 20% enrichment of uranium from Natanz to Fordow, where they are tripling production. What's more, Tehran has announced that it intends to build 10 more enrichment plants, and Iranian experts have conducted experiments with neutron sources and highly explosive detonators that would only make sense for military applications. They're also making progress at the heavy-water reactor in Arak, so much so, that by 2014 they'll have enough plutonium to build an atom bomb... I am... convinced that Tehran will reach the 'break-out capability' - in other words, the capacity to produce weapons-grade uranium - as early as by the end of next year." http://t.uani.com/oPlf3I

WSJ: "As it sought to stop North Korea from spreading its nuclear technology, the U.S. uncovered signs in 2007 that the country was channeling funds through a major Middle Eastern bank based in Jordan, one of its closest regional allies, according to diplomatic cables posted online by document leaking website WikiLeaks. In the cables, viewed by The Wall Street Journal, U.S. officials warned their counterparts in Jordan that North Korea was using Amman-based Arab Bank PLC to receive money from Syria and Iran, circumventing international sanctions. The U.S. has said, apart from the cables, that it believes Syria purchased North Korean nuclear technology, including a nuclear reactor that Israel bombed in 2007. The U.S. also believes that Iran has acquired long-range missiles from North Korea." http://t.uani.com/nQyFrR

Iran Disclosure Project

Nuclear Program & Sanctions


VOA: "In the past year the United Nations has tried to tighten restrictions on an Iranian shipping company accused of helping Tehran gather materials for its nuclear program. Security Council Resolution 1929 has helped locate ships operating under the Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines (IRISL) and turn them away from ports in Europe and North America. The measure has been much less effective in Asia. Last week, David S. Cohen, U.S. Treasury undersecretary for terrorism and financial intelligence, again warned the Asian shipping industry that conducting business with the IRISL contravenes international law. Meeting industry representatives in Hong Kong, Cohen named 19 ships that he says the Iranian company renamed and transferred ownership to local shell companies to conceal their identity." http://t.uani.com/pCm3Rt

WSJ: "The Financial Crimes Enforcement Network has finalized regulations requiring U.S. financial institutions to disclose whether their foreign bank clients do business with blacklisted Iranian entities. The agency said it will put its new investigative tool to use immediately. The regulations, which will go into effect as soon as they are published in the Federal Register, stem from the Comprehensive Iran Sanctions, Accountability, and Divestment Act of 2010, known as CISADA. The law allows Treasury to sanction foreign banks that deal with Iranian-linked financial institutions or the country's powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, with the most severe punishment being expulsion from the U.S. financial system. 'As soon as the regulation takes effect, Fincen will issue a number of information requests to U.S. banks regarding several foreign banks that Treasury has reason to believe may be engaged in activity that is sanctionable,' the agency said in a statement. Fincen is Treasury's financial intelligence unit. U.S. financial institutions that maintain correspondent accounts for foreign banks will have to report to the federal government whether the foreign banks, in turn, maintain correspondent accounts for sanctioned Iranian (or Iranian-linked) banks." http://t.uani.com/oOJxmT

AFP: "The US Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) has made a campaign against cyberthreats one of its 'highest priorities,' with China, Russia and Iran in the crosshairs, the bureau's chief said Thursday. FBI Director Robert Mueller told the House intelligence committee that cyber-espionage constituted 'one of the most significant and complex threats facing the nation.' When asked to name the worst offenders around the globe that pose a threat to the United States, Mueller said: 'You have countries such as Russia and China, others, Iran perhaps, who have capabilities that we're alert to.'" http://t.uani.com/nH90LI


Domestic Politics

Reuters: "Iranian hardline President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, whose campaign pledge was to combat corruption, is facing a fresh political blow over the biggest financial scandal in Iran's history. The $2.6 billion scam has taken on political dimensions as some hardline politicians have linked the main suspect in the fraud to a so-called 'deviant current,' allegedly led by Ahmadinejad's chief of staff and closest ally. Esfandiar Rahim Mashaie is accused by many Shi'ite clerics and politicians of trying to undermine the central role of the clergy in politics by emphasizing the nationalist strain of Iranian history and culture. 'Now Ahmadinejad's hands are filled with the scam ... Weakened in the eye of the nation, Ahmadinejad has been rendered impotent to initiate any political action ahead of the (March 2012) parliament vote,' said a former senior official, who asked not to be named." http://t.uani.com/qAvbzH

Opinion & Analysis


Graham Allison in WashPost: "President Obama should take a page from Ronald Reagan's playbook in winning the final inning of the Cold War. Obama can challenge President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to put his enriched uranium where his mouth is - by stopping all Iranian enrichment of uranium beyond the 5 percent level. A quarter-century ago, Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev was touting a new 'glasnost': openness. President Reagan went to Berlin and called on Gorbachev to 'tear down this wall.' Two years later, the Berlin Wall came tumbling down and, shortly thereafter, the Soviet 'evil empire' fell as well. While in New York for the opening of the U.N. General Assembly in September, Ahmadinejad on three occasions made an unambiguous offer: He said Iran would stop all enrichment of uranium beyond the levels used in civilian power plants - if his country is able to buy specialized fuel enriched at 20 percent, for use in its research reactor that produces medical isotopes to treat cancer patients. Obama should seize this proposal and send negotiators straightaway to hammer out specifics. Iran has been enriching uranium since 2006, and it has accumulated a stockpile of uranium enriched at up to 5 percent, sufficient after further enrichment for several nuclear bombs. Iran is also producing 20 percent material every day, and it announced in June that it planned to triple its output. Halting Iran's current production of 20 percent material and its projected growth would be significant. A stockpile of uranium enriched at 20 percent shrinks the potential timeline for breaking out to bomb material from months to weeks. In effect, having uranium enriched at 20 percent takes Iran 90 yards along the football field to bomb-grade material. Pushing it back below 5 percent would effectively move Tehran back to the 30-yard line - much farther from the goal of bomb-grade material. Even more important, extracting from Iran a commitment to a bright red line capping enrichment at 5 percent would stop the Islamic Republic from advancing on its current path to 60 percent enrichment and then 90 percent. Stopping Iran from enriching beyond 5 percent is not, in itself, a 'solution' to its nuclear threat. Nor was Reagan's proposal to Gorbachev. The question for Reagan was whether we would be better off with the Berlin Wall or without it." http://t.uani.com/pNIxoX

Admiral James Lyons in WT: "Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's deplorable performance before the U.N. General Assembly on Sept. 22 was not unexpected. His declaration that Iran would never recognize Israel's right to exist - even if statehood were granted to the Palestinian people - should put to rest the common liberal thesis that if only the Israeli-Palestinian problem were resolved, peace and stability would reign in the Middle East. Nonsense. Aside from the fact that we do not know the outcome of the Arab Spring uprising, that thesis has always been misguided. Further, it should be clear that the Islamic jihadists will always find another cause for promoting their agenda of a world dominated by Islam. It also should put to rest President Obama's goal of engaging the Iranian theocracy and the illegitimate Mr. Ahmadinejad in resolving outstanding issues and convincing Iran to give up its nuclear weapons program. It should be clear by now that neither economic sanctions nor inducements will cause the fanatical Iranian theocracy to change course. We have to face up to the reality that Iran has been at war with the United States for more than 30 years. Its acts of war have been well documented in many judgments in U.S. federal courts and is beyond debate. Iran's history as the world's leader in state-sponsored terrorism using primarily proxies is also well documented. These acts include the takeover of our embassy in Tehran in November 1979, the bombing of the U.S. Marine barracks in Beirut on Oct. 23, 1983, and the truck bombing of Khobar Towers in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia, on June 25, 1996, which killed 19 U.S. military personnel and wounded about 500. Iran has continued to sponsor multiple acts of terrorism throughout the world and has used the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps' (IRGC) Qods Force in providing financing, training and material support - including the supply of improvised explosive devices to insurgents our military have been fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan. Iran's continuous, unchallenged acts of aggression against the United States have cost thousands of American lives, both military and civilian. Never in the course of this great nation's history have we not responded to such flagrant acts of aggression. We have clear evidence how Iran played a key role in aiding and abetting the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attackers. Three former 9/11 Commission staff members have stated that the evidence is 'clear and convincing' that Iran was involved in the attacks. Such evidence makes a mockery of Mr. Ahmadinejad's repeated claim that the United States staged the attacks. In the Persian Gulf, Iran continues to threaten our naval forces with simulated attacks by IRGC-controlled high-speed patrol craft. It's conditioning our naval forces to allow Iranian naval craft and ships to get dangerously close, which is a clear formula for disaster. There have been a series of 'near-misses' in the Gulf... American officials have stated repeatedly that a nuclear-armed Iran is unacceptable. Therefore, I believe the military option to destroy their nuclear infrastructure must remain on the table. At the end of the day, our issues with Iran can only be solved by regime change." http://t.uani.com/qjTDlX

Shayan Ghajar and Geneive Abdo in HuffPo: "Iran's perception of the United States' declining power in the Middle East and its dream of capitalizing on regional instability have provoked two actions in recent days: Tehran now has vowed to send naval vessels to the Atlantic Ocean and perhaps the Gulf of Mexico. It has also rebuffed an idea by some U.S. officials to establish a military-to-military hotline with Iranian forces in order to reduce the chance of a clash in the Persian Gulf. In an interview broadcast live to one of Iran's primary state-owned TV channels October 4, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad indicated that the establishment of communication with the U.S. would be 'conditional,' and he demanded that the United States pulling its naval vessels out of the Persian Gulf. The president's remarks reveal the Iranian regime's current aggressive position. Since the Arab uprisings, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has made clear that he believes this is Iran's moment at last to influence the Arab world and particularly create a security arrangement with Arab states in the Persian Gulf. Without the United States, Iran believes it could alter the balance of power -- even though this is highly unlikely. Iran is particularly focused on the instability in Bahrain, where the United States has a major naval base for the Fifth Fleet. Not only has tension grown between the ruling monarchy, the Al Khalifa family, and the majority Shia population, but there is growing sectarian strife between Shia and Sunni. Tehran is hoping that the tension in Bahrain will force the United States to close its naval base. During the Bahrain uprising earlier this year, the presence of the Fifth Fleet became a source of criticism toward the United States for its position as both a defender of human rights in countries such as Egypt, and a traditional ally of the authoritarian Bahraini government. Bahrainis lashed out at President Barack Obama for his unwillingness to condemn the Bahraini government for the profound human rights violations being committed against the protesters. Tehran's current thinking does not bode well for any form of cooperation between Tehran and Washington. Once again, it seems Tehran has rebuffed the Obama administration's efforts --however modest -- of some form of engagement. U.S. military officials have long held the belief that accidental miscommunications in the Persian Gulf posed a much greater risk of a military conflict with Iran than an air strike or another form of conventional attack." http://t.uani.com/nBtgUm

Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons. UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.

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