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AP: "Iran will not return a U.S. surveillance drone captured by its armed forces, a senior commander of the country's elite Revolutionary Guard said Sunday. Gen. Hossein Salami, deputy head of the Guard, said in remarks broadcast on state television that the violation of Iran's airspace by the U.S. drone was a 'hostile act' and warned of a 'bigger' response. He did not elaborate on what Tehran might do. 'No one returns the symbol of aggression to the party that sought secret and vital intelligence related to the national security of a country,' Salami said. Iranian television broadcast video Thursday of Iranian military officials inspecting what it identified as the RQ-170 Sentinel drone. Iranian state media have said the unmanned spy aircraft was detected over the eastern town of Kashmar, some 140 miles (225 kilometers) from the border with Afghanistan. U.S. officials have acknowledged losing the drone." http://t.uani.com/uhRKFs
NYT: "Iranian experts are in the final stages of recovering data from the U.S. surveillance drone captured by the country's armed forces, state TV reported Monday... Lawmaker Parviz Sorouri, who is on the parliament's national security and foreign policy committee, said Monday the extracted information will be used to file a lawsuit against the United States for the 'invasion' by the unmanned aircraft. Sorouri also claimed that Iran has the capability to reproduce the drone through reverse engineering, but he didn't elaborate... U.S. officials are concerned others may be able to reverse-engineer the chemical composition of the drone's radar-deflecting paint or the aircraft's sophisticated optics technology that allows operators to positively identify terror suspects from tens of thousands of feet in the air. They are also worried adversaries may be able to hack into the drone's database, although it is not clear whether any data could be recovered." http://t.uani.com/vmzoPd
Reuters: "At least a dozen U.S.-listed companies have been told by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to disclose business activity in and with Syria, Iran and others deemed 'state sponsors' of terror by the state department, the Financial Times said on Sunday. The inquiries are part of SEC reviews of companies' investment risks to security holders. Sony Corp, Caterpillar Inc, American Express, Aecom Technology, Iridex and Veolia Environnement are among the companies that received letters from the SEC's corporate finance division, the report said. Their responses show how sales have shrivelled with tighter international sanctions, the FT said." http://t.uani.com/sUBavD
Nuclear Program & Sanctions Reuters: "The European Union 'definitely' will not impose sanctions on OPEC member Iran's oil exports because such a measure would harm the global crude market, Iranian Oil Minister Rostam Qasemi said on Sunday. EU leaders called on Friday for more sanctions against Iran by the end of January, in an effort to increase pressure on Tehran over its disputed nuclear program. 'Our policy is sustainable supply of oil to Europe ... Iran is a major oil producer and any sanctions on our oil export would harm the global market,' Qasemi told a news conference. Last week, EU foreign ministers agreed to develop new sanctions on Iran's energy, transport and banking sectors." http://t.uani.com/vSBar0
JPost: "An Iranian security official said that Iran would 'definitely' strike NATO positions in Turkey if it were attacked, according to a Monday report by the Turkish daily Hurriyet. 'We are closely monitoring the relations with Turkey in the National Security Commission of the parliament. Iran has warned Turkey before that the deployment of the system will have grave consequences,' said Hossein Ibrahimi, vice-chairman of the Iranian parliament's national security and foreign policy commission. Ibrahimi also referenced a similar threat made at the end of November by Amir Ali Hajizadeh, head of the Revolutionary Guards' aerospace division. 'General Hajizadeh's remarks are entirely true and when we are attacked, it is our natural right to defend ourselves,' Hurriyet quoted Ibrahimi as saying." http://t.uani.com/vOvvew
AFP: "Iran's boast it downed a highly sophisticated US drone has handed the Islamic republic a propaganda coup while revealing numerous inconsistencies in both Iranian and US accounts of the incident... Information given by Iranian and US officials in their respective countries' media since Tehran announced December 4 it had captured the drone has raised several inconsistencies over the affair. The Iranian military's joint chiefs of staff initially said its air defences managed to 'shoot down' the drone as it 'briefly violated' Iran's eastern airspace. Yet Mohammad Khazaee, Iran's ambassador to the United Nations, said in his letter of protest that the drone flew 'deep inside' Iran, close to the eastern desert town of Tabas, according to Iranian media. 'After reaching the northern part of Tabas area -- 250 kilometres (150 miles) deep inside Iranian territory -- the aircraft was confronted by the timely response of the Islamic republic's armed forces,' his letter read. And Iranian military officials were now saying the drone -- displaying little damage in state media images -- had not been shot down as first asserted, but rather had its controls hacked by a Revolutionary Guards cyber warfare unit." http://t.uani.com/upXTzd
AP: "The Iranian Foreign Ministry expressed its displeasure to Afghanistan's ambassador to Iran over an American drone aircraft that Iran says flew deep into its airspace and crashed last week, a spokesman for the Afghan Foreign Ministry said Sunday. According to Afghan officials, the drone was flown from the American and Afghan base at Shindand in western Herat Province... The Afghan ambassador, Obaidullah Obaid, discussed the matter with Iranian officials and promised to look into the circumstances, said Janan Mosazai, a spokesman for Afghanistan's Foreign Ministry." http://t.uani.com/veSJkZ
Domestic Politics
AP: "A conservative Iranian news website is reporting that a jobless man has thrown his shoes at President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to protest not having received his unemployment benefits. The Monday report by Shafaf.ir is a rare example of the Iranian media reporting a humiliation reportedly suffered by the president. The website is close to Ahmadinejad's opponents. The website identifies the man as a laid-off worker in a textile factory in the northern city of Sari, which the president was visiting. It says that the shoes missed Ahmadinejad, and the man began to attack the government for his failure to receive his benefits. Iran officially reports its unemployment rate at about 11 percent, but some experts say it is much higher." http://t.uani.com/ryZPz7
AP: "Iran's official news agency is reporting that a blast caused by leftover ammunition has killed at least seven workers including foreign nationals at a steel mill in the central city of Yazd. The Monday report by IRNA said the blast late Sunday wounded 12 other workers. It has not reported the nationality of the foreigners. Local parliamentarian Ali Akbar Oliaw is quoted as blaming the blast on ammunition which arrived at the factory along with scrap metal. Iran's media in the past has reported explosions which at first it said were caused by bombs, then in subsequent reports by stray ammunition." http://t.uani.com/s64UAn
Foreign Affairs
WSJ: "A defiant Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki promised he would firmly confront any meddling by Iran after U.S. forces are gone, in an interview in which he said Iraqi interests were best served when nations stick to their own business... 'If [Iran's] excuse was that the presence of U.S. troops on Iraqi soil posed a threat to [Iranian] national security, then this danger is over now,' Mr. Maliki told The Wall Street Journal ahead of an official visit to Washington that starts Monday. 'With it ends all thinking, calculations and possibilities for interference in Iraqi affairs under any other banner.'" http://t.uani.com/ts9vj1
Opinion & Analysis
Michael Makovsky & Blaise Misztal in WashPost: "As recent events underscore the growing Iranian nuclear threat, the Obama administration appears to be pivoting toward a policy of containment. The emphasis of its rhetoric has shifted from preventing an 'unacceptable' nuclear Iran to 'isolating' it. When coupled with recent weaker action against Iran, we fear it signals a tacit policy change. A few days after his election, President Obama called a nuclear Iran 'unacceptable.' In February 2009, he pledged 'to use all elements of American power to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon.' By the next year, after a first round of negotiations with Iran had failed and the United Nations and Congress passed tougher sanctions, that pledge had softened. 'The United States,' Obama said in July 2010, is 'determined to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.' The administration did not dwell publicly on Iran until the Oct. 11 announcement that it foiled an Iranian terrorist plot on U.S. soil - against the Saudi ambassador - and the International Atomic Energy Agency presented damning evidence of Iran's pursuit of nuclear weapons. The president's response, a Nov. 21 statement announcing new sanctions, marked another subtle, yet significant, rhetorical shift. It downgraded the Iranian threat from 'unacceptable' to one of the several 'highest national security priorities.' Obama concluded: 'Iran has chosen the path of international isolation... [T]he United States will continue to find ways... to isolate and increase the pressure upon the Iranian regime.' Yet isolation now appears a goal in its own right, uncoupled from the objective of preventing nuclear capabilities. The same rhetoric was more explicit in a speech the next day by national security adviser Thomas Donilon. 'Iran today,' he declared, 'is fundamentally weaker, more isolated, more vulnerable and badly discredited than ever.' Left unsaid was that Iran's nuclear program is more advanced, more capable and closer than ever to achieving nuclear weapons. Despite citing Obama's July 2010 speech, Donilon's overwhelming theme was isolation. He used some form of the word 'isolate' 17 times, 'prevent' only three and 'unacceptable' not once. Donilon's thesis was: 'We will continue to build a regional defense architecture that prevents Iran from threatening its neighbors. We will continue to deepen Iran's isolation, regionally and globally.' Reminiscent of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's 2009 promise to extend a 'defense umbrella' over Iran's neighbors, Donilon's comments reveal a focus on managing, rather than neutralizing, the Iranian threat. Administration actions reflect this rhetorical shift. Initially, while pledging to prevent a nuclear Iran at all costs, the administration focused on diplomacy and then a dual-track approach, including sanctions. The latter reached its apogee in mid-2010 with tough U.S. and international sanctions. The administration has not sufficiently enforced these sanctions, nor pressed for full-fledged sanctions against Iran's central bank, a move backed this month by all 100 senators. Faced with international resistance, the administration's resolve weakened, and it failed to persuade China, Russia and other countries to support measures firm enough to potentially compel Iran to cease its nuclear program." http://t.uani.com/uN0mDE
Ray Takeyh in WashPost: "Attention has returned to the potential nuclear threat building in Iran. It has long been assumed that the regime seeks the bomb for its deterrent power or as a means of projecting influence in a politically volatile region. As important as these considerations may be, Iranian nuclear calculations are predicated on a distinctly domestic calculus: The Islamic Republic perceives it can reclaim its international standing better with the bomb than without one. Instead of conceding to intrusive U.N. resolutions or amending their behavior on issues of terrorism and regional subversion, Iran's rulers sense that once they obtain the bomb, they can return to the international fold on their own terms. Iranian officials claim that Washington's hostility goes far beyond the nuclear issue. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has denigrated prospects of diplomatic settlement and claims that Washington exploits the nuclear issue in hopes of extending its sanctions policy to other countries. 'The change of behavior they want - and which they don't always necessarily emphasize - is in fact the negation of our identity,' Khamenei insisted in an August 2010 speech. This indictment encompasses Western nations as well as the U.N. Security Council and the International Atomic Energy Agency. After a critical IAEA report was released last month, a senior adviser to Khamenei, Ali Akbar Velayati, dismissed Iran's culpability and stressed that the 'IAEA will never agree on Iran's peaceful nuclear activities.' A clerical oligarchy trapped in a mind-set conditioned by conspiracies and violent xenophobia paradoxically views both American entreaties and sanctions as an affirmation of its perspective. Offers of diplomatic dialogue made in respectful terms are seen as indications of Western weakness and embolden the regime to sustain its intransigence. Conversely, coercive measures are viewed as American plots to not just disarm the Islamic Republic but also to undermine its rule. Armed with the ultimate weapon, the Islamists think, they may yet compel the West to concede to Iran's regional aggrandizement. Ali Larijani, the speaker of parliament who is often wrongly depicted in Western circles as a pragmatist, has mused that 'If Iran becomes atomic Iran, no longer will anyone dare to challenge it because they would have to pay too high of a price.' Iranian elites may not be misreading the lessons of proliferation. Historically, when a nuclear power has emerged, after a period of sanctions and censure the international community has not only acquiesced to the country's new capabilities but also invests in the perpetuation of that regime - partly out of fear of the unknown." http://t.uani.com/tXGBEI
Richard Weitz in China-US Focus: "Iran has been hit with new Western sanctions that target Iran's banks, oil and gas industry, and petrochemical industry. These sanctions followed the release of a November 8 report from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which details alleged Iranian clandestine research on Iranian nuclear warheads and their means of delivery. Nonetheless, Russian and Chinese opposition blocked the IAEA from requesting that the UN Security Council impose more multinational sanctions on Iran. Western governments have had to resort to applying supplementary but piecemeal sanctions without UN approval. A lot of asymmetries mark the China-Iran relationship. The PRC is an emerging superpower with aspirations of establishing regional hegemony in the Asia Pacific region. Iran aspires to such status, but lacks the human, economic, and military resources to achieve it (which might explain why Iran might want nuclear weapons to bolster its status). The PRC has the world's most dynamic economy, while that of Iran is stagnant. China has no state religion, whereas the Iranian regime defines itself as an Islamic republic. Although opposites might attract, these asymmetries place Beijing in a much stronger negotiating position, while prickly Iranians have always resented having to concede to even friendly great powers. Iranians have regularly rejected China's demands that Tehran adopt a more flexible and transparent nuclear policy. Yet, the Chinese government has consistently opposed threats to use military force against Iran's nuclear program. PRC officials have been unenthusiastic about even less drastic punitive measures. Chinese diplomats, in partnership with their Russian colleagues, have often worked to weaken proposed sanctions, accepting only the minimum measures necessary to avert a possible U.S. or Israeli military attack on Iran. The standard PRC line regarding Iran's nuclear program, offered by Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi among others, is that, 'China has consistently advocated safeguarding the international nuclear non-proliferation system. At the same time, China considers we should resolve the Iran nuclear issue through the channels of dialogue and negotiations.' Chinese behavior regarding Iran is bounded. The PRC government clearly opposes the extreme outcomes of Iran's obtaining nuclear weapons or the use of force by Israel or the United States to avert that outcome. Furthermore, Beijing wants to see a change in the behavior of the regime, but not regime change. Chinese officials oppose military strikes against Iran or harsh sanctions that could threaten the regime's existence. Excluding these extreme outcomes, China pursues policies that change according to the circumstances." http://t.uani.com/tiyC5e |
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