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Top Stories
AP: "The
U.N. atomic agency has received new and significant intelligence over the
past month that Iran has moved further toward the ability to build a
nuclear weapon, diplomats tell The Associated Press. They say the
intelligence shows that Iran has advanced its work on calculating the
destructive power of an atomic warhead through a series of computer
models that it ran sometime within the past three years. The diplomats
say the information comes from Israel, the United States and at least two
other Western countries. The time-frame is significant because if the
International Atomic Energy Agency decides that the intelligence is
credible, it would strengthen its concerns that Iran has continued
weapons work into the recent past - and may be continuing to do so.
Because computer modeling work is normally accompanied by physical tests
of the components that go into a nuclear weapons, it would also buttress
IAEA fears outlined in detail in November that Tehran is advancing its
weapons research on multiple fronts." http://t.uani.com/RPAXME
Reuters: "A
group of Iranian legislators, critical of the policies of President
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, has urged the central bank to intervene in the
currency market to support the rial, which hit record lows this week,
Iranian media reported on Tuesday. The Iranian currency hit an all-time
low on the open market on Monday at 25,650 to the dollar, half its value
of a year ago and after losing about 17 percent since last Thursday. It
was more stable on Tuesday. While the direct cause of the sharp fall is
unclear, analysts say it is a further sign that sanctions imposed over
Iran's disputed nuclear program are biting deeply into its economy and
also reflects confusion over the government's currency policy. The rial's
slide threatens to push up inflation and fuel capital flight from Iran
and has inflamed political divisions within the country, with foes of
President Ahmadinejad in the legislature accusing his administration of
foot-dragging and exacerbating the situation." http://t.uani.com/SAzsEB
Reuters: "Prime
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ramped up on Tuesday threats to attack Iran,
saying if world powers refused to set a red line for Tehran's nuclear
program, they could not demand that Israel hold its fire. 'The world
tells Israel wait, there's still time. And I say, Wait for what? Wait
until when? Those in the international community who refuse to put red
lines before Iran don't have a moral right to place a red light before
Israel,' Netanyahu, speaking in English, told reporters. 'Now if Iran
knows that there is no red line. If Iran knows that there is no deadline,
what will it do? Exactly what it's doing. It's continuing, without any
interference, towards obtaining nuclear weapons capability and from
there, nuclear bombs,' he said. Netanyahu's use of the word 'deadline',
at a news conference with visiting Bulgarian government leaders, appeared
to be a swipe at U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton." http://t.uani.com/ODpPiz
Nuclear
Program
USA Today: "The United Nations
nuclear watchdog needs to admit that it cannot determine whether Iran is
building an atomic weapon and that the U.N. Security Council must take
stronger action, analysts say. The International Atomic Energy Agency's
(IAEA) board of governors' meeting could result in escalating the
conflict with Iran, said David Albright, an arms-control expert at the
Institute for Science and International Security. 'The IAEA has a job to
do, and they need to worry about their credibility as an institution,'
Albright said. 'So they have to move this forward and that means escalate
it. And unfortunately that increases the risk of military action.' ...
James Jeffrey, a former ambassador to Iraq and Turkey who served as an
adviser on Iran policy in the George W. Bush administration, believes the
issue is headed to the U.N. Security Council. 'The IAEA's job is to warn
the Security Council of threats to peace,' Jeffrey said. If the IAEA's
report 'is strong and damning, the Security Council will be under
pressure to implement actions or sanctions against Iran.'" http://t.uani.com/P6FBTW
FT:
"Conventional wisdom says that an Israeli - or American - attack on
Iran's nuclear facilities would trigger an extraordinary oil price rally.
The $200-a-barrel Armageddon scenario comes straight to mind. But what if
oil prices failed to rally or, worse for the bulls, actually plunged?
Colin Fenton, who heads commodities research at JPMorgan, has just
released a note to clients warning to expect the unexpected. 'If an
attack occurred, we would not be surprised if the initial impulse were a
smaller-than-expected and briefer-than-expected oil price spike followed
by a stronger-than-expected oil price decline,' he wrote." http://t.uani.com/QD6rXF
Sanctions
Dow Jones:
"An oil producers' report Tuesday revealed a widening gap in views
over how much crude oil Iran is producing, with Tehran saying output is
up when experts say it is sharply declining. The rare disclosure of
sensitive Iranian oil data--made in the monthly oil-market report of the
Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries--comes amid intense
scrutiny over the effect of international sanctions against the Islamic
Republic. In the OPEC report, Iran pegs its August crude-oil production
at 3.7 million barrels a day, up 5% from last year and broadly stable
since the beginning of the year.But secondary sources cited by
OPEC--shipping and oil-industry experts with close knowledge of the
country's production--put Iran's output at 2.8 million barrels a day,
about 1 million barrels a day lower than Iran's estimates and 24% down
compared with last year." http://t.uani.com/Oc3mrm
WSJ:
"Iran is in talks to sell oil to Egypt, officials on both sides say,
part of a broader push to make up for lost European Union sales and a
renewed engagement between the two countries. Tehran has approached Cairo
to sell two million barrels of oil-valued at more than $200 million-that
are part of a stock of unsold Iranian crude stuck in the Egyptian port of
Sidi Kerir because of international sanctions against Tehran, a person
familiar with the approach said... A decision by Egypt to purchase
Iranian oil could place it in conflict with the Obama administration.
Under recently passed U.S. legislation, foreign firms purchasing Iranian
energy products can be banned from using the U.S. financial systems
unless their government has obtained a waiver from Washington. To date,
Cairo has neither sought a waiver, nor been granted one." http://t.uani.com/PkWVqh
FT:
"Iran is reducing its dependence on oil by developing an 'economy of
resistance' to circumvent international sanctions over its nuclear
programme, according to a senior regime adviser. Mohsen Rezaei, secretary
of the Expediency Council - which drafts the country's macro economic,
political and cultural policies, told the Financial Times that the
country would focus on developing self-reliance. Imports would be
replaced by locally produced goods and Tehran would push for barter deals
with other countries, said Mr Rezaei, who commanded the elite
revolutionary guards for 16 years. He added that the Iran would also
increase investment abroad and reduce taxes in an attempt to encourage
domestic industry. 'A new economic system' is 'being formulated ... to
renovate Iran's economy' in the next one to two years, he said." http://t.uani.com/S5Vt7C
Bloomberg:
"The Isfahan Refinery in central Iran has shut because of rising
debt incurred to buy feedstock, Tehran Times reported, citing a statement
by the Isfahan Oil Refining Co. The refinery was supplied with 2.31
trillion rials ($187 million) of feedstock in the past year and made
payments of 700 billion rials to the Isfahan Oil Refining Co., Jalil
Salari, the chairman of the company's board of directors, said according
to the newspaper. The Isfahan Refinery hasn't signed an agreement since
October 2008 while IORC continued supplying the refinery with feedstock
since then, Salari said, according to the report." http://t.uani.com/QJ6gV0
Foreign
Affairs
Reuters: "Canada's
surprise decision to sever relations with Iran may well have been
triggered by Ottawa's fear of retaliation for stepping up its
denunciations of Tehran and a parallel move to list Iran as a state
sponsor of terrorism. The break in relations, announced on Friday, has
led to speculation that it was a prelude to Israeli or U.S. military
action against Iran's nuclear facilities. Canada has categorically denied
having any information about planned attacks. 'Canada wants to be able to
continue to speak up on the Iranian regime's behavior, and we didn't want
our guys in there as hostage,' said Andrew MacDougall, chief spokesman
for Prime Minister Stephen Harper, explaining the decision to close the
Tehran embassy and order Iranian diplomats out of Canada." http://t.uani.com/NWTHuw
Globe & Mail:
"Canadian officials cited a range of reasons for the extraordinary
decision to expel all Iranian diplomats from Ottawa and close the mission
in Tehran, chief among them the threat to the security of Canadian personnel,
particularly if Israel or the United States should launch an attack on
Iran in an effort to eliminate Tehran's alleged nuclear-weapons program.
'With no American embassy in Tehran and the British embassy closed [since
an attack on it in November] the next most likely target for retaliation
would have been the Canadians,' said a former government official with
experience in Iran. That is why, these officials say, there was no
objection from the Canadian diplomats when the order to evacuate came
down, especially since the mission was serving no practical purpose
anyway. While critics argue that the closing of the embassy means there
will be no more contact with the Iranian regime, Canada has had no formal
communication with Iran for a long time." http://t.uani.com/NWUcF1
Daily Telegraph:
"Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has accused the West of deliberately destroying
rain clouds headed for Iran in a concerted effort to plunge the country
into a damaging drought. The Iranian president made the assertions in a
speech on Monday addressing the problems caused by low rainfall trends,
which experts say is threatening Iran's agriculture. 'Today our country
is moving towards drought, which is partly unintentional due to industry
and partly intentional, as a result of the enemy destroying the clouds
moving towards our country and this is a war that Iran is going to
overcome,' Mr Ahmadinejad said in a speech in the Caspian Sea city of
Gonbad-e Kavus to mark its registration as a Unesco World Heritage
site." http://t.uani.com/OlYiWQ
Opinion
& Analysis
Robert Windrem in
NBC News: "Are economic sanctions successful if the
Iranian economy crashes but the regime continues developing its nuclear
program? That is the dichotomy now playing out inside the Islamic state,
according to new data on the Iranian economy and its nuclear program. The
latest data on the quantitative success of the sanctions comes from an
economics research firm, the Rhodium Group of New York. In a paper
published last week, Rhodium said that customs data from around the world
show both Iranian oil exports and revenues have dropped precipitously...
Specifically, the report states that the 'best guess' on Iranian oil
exports in July is no greater than 940,000 barrels, down from 1.7 million
barrels in June and 2.8 million barrels a year ago. Oil revenue dropped
even more sharply, from $9.8 billion in July 2011 to $2.9 billion a year
later. The disparity between the drop in oil sales and the decline in
revenues was partly attributable to tumbling oil prices; even the value
China's oil imports dropped 28 percent from June to July... At the same
time, the International Atomic Energy Agency's quarterly report on Iran's
nuclear program shows while Iranian oil revenue was declining, there was
a simultaneous and dramatic increase in the number of centrifuges at
Iran's once-secret Fordow nuclear site. Iran in fact more than doubled
the number of installed centrifuges -- from 1,064 to 2,140 -- in May, the
IAEA reported. The centrifuges, which are not the latest models that Iran
possesses, have not been turned on, but U.S. officials call the speedup
'troubling' if not a "game changer." The Iranians also have
increased their stockpile of highly enriched uranium, indicating that
they have been getting better at the enrichment process. Finally, at a
military nuclear site named Parchin, which the IAEA wants to inspect,
crucial buildings had been demolished and earth removed, the IAEA
reported. Western diplomats see this as part of a cover-up by Iran of
illicit nuclear-linked tests. So while the shipping data show the
sanctions are a quantitative success - causing a rapid deterioration of
Iran's oil-driven economy - the IAEA data suggest no qualitative success.
Iran continues to install new centrifuges and enrich more uranium, while
refusing to permit IAEA inspections of Parchin. 'The challenge is it (the
embargo) doesn't seem to have much of an impact,' on Iran's behavior,
Houser admits. That doesn't mean sanctions should be abandoned, says Mark
Wallace, a former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations who runs an
activist group, United Against Nuclear Iran, that's engaged in shaming
Western companies into abandoning business in Iran. 'Sanctions are
clearly having an impact, but we can do much more and must,' said
Wallace, who advocates 'economic warfare' against Iran. 'Importantly, the
most robust sanctions in history can only prevent Iran from going nuclear
if they are part of a larger strategy that includes thoughtful military
planning and rigorous diplomatic activity.' Wallace points to victories
big and small. He notes that in the last few days, a Russian firm decided
to stop verifying safety and environmental standards for one of Iran's
biggest shipping groups, making it more difficult for it to operate
internationally." http://t.uani.com/S7jknq
Michael S. Smith
II in Fox News: "Eleven years ago on September 11,
2001 Al Qaeda turned passenger planes into missiles, and attacked the
United States. The attack left a searing image of the deadly consequences
of the so-called 'global jihad.' While the global jihad has long
been regarded as the domain of Sunni extremists there is more to that
picture than meets the eye. Sadly, the US government has yet to address a
key factor that not only enabled Al Qaeda to carry out the 9/11 terror attacks,
but which also made it possible for Al Qaeda to survive America's efforts
to dismantle its terror network -- support from the government of Iran.
Today it is clear that for the Islamic Republic of Iran, Al Qaeda's
survival is a priority - one which the United States has been remiss in
failing to disrupt. Even with a federal judge's recent affirmation of
evidence that the Islamic Republic of Iran was involved with Al Qaeda's
9/11 plot, for many US officials Iran's collusion in the deadliest
terrorist attacks ever on America's homeland remains unclear. This,
despite various developments spanning back to the early 1990s pointing to
a preponderance of evidence that Iran was a prime candidate for
participation in the 9/11 plot. As authors of the 9/11 Commission Report
observed, 'The relationship between Al Qaeda and Iran demonstrated that
Sunni-Shia divisions did not necessarily pose an insurmountable barrier
to cooperation in terrorist operations.' Yet for many years following
that terrible day, the notion that Iranian officials would not sanction
cooperation with Sunni radicals led officials to avoid a much-needed
analysis of just how Iran asserts its foreign policy agenda as a central
player in the global jihad. Obviously, the assumption Shiite Iranian officials
viewed Sunni radicals as untouchables flew in the face of Iran's
provision of safe haven to so many top figures from Al Qaeda after 9/11.
These terrorists included prominent jihadis like Saif al-Adl, who served
as Al Qaeda's interim leader following Usama bin Laden's death, and Abu
Musab al-Zarqawi, who eventually became America's top target in Iraq as
the leader of Al Qaeda's Iraqi franchise... Regrettably, analysis of
Iran's support for Al Qaeda in the post-9/11 era remains too simple. And
despite the fact that two of Al Qaeda's most powerful members, Ayman
al-Zawahiri and Saif al-Adl, each have longstanding ties to top Iranian
officials, it seems that the importance of this axis remains completely
underestimated by Western governments -- to this day. Indeed, although
President Obama says he is at war with Al Qaeda, he has essentially made
it a policy not to address the chief issue that is keeping Al Qaeda
alive: Iran's support." http://t.uani.com/TEtjGQ
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Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against
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Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the
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email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com
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