Thursday, September 13, 2012

Eye on Iran: Russia, China Join West in Iran Rebuke at U.N. Nuclear Meet








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Reuters:
"Russia and China backed four Western powers on Wednesday to step up diplomatic pressure on Iran to allay concerns that it is developing atomic bombs capability, a day after Israel ramped up threats to attack the Islamic state. The United States, France, Germany and Britain as well as Russia and China agreed a draft resolution at the U.N. nuclear agency to rebuke Iran over its expanded uranium enrichment programme while making clear their desire to find a peaceful resolution to the dispute which risks a new Middle East war. Russia and China, critical of unilateral Western sanctions on Iran's oil exports, were initially reluctant to submit a resolution on Iran to the 35-nation board of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), diplomats said." http://t.uani.com/Q5maKg

Reuters: "South Africa proposed a last-minute change to a U.N. nuclear agency resolution rebuking Iran on Thursday, throwing the meeting into confusion, diplomats said... Western diplomats said the South African amendment, though adding only five words to a two-page document, risked weakening somewhat the message to Iran that it must open up to IAEA investigations into suspected atom bomb research...  The proposed text says 'it is essential for Iran to immediately implement' a framework deal with the IAEA to clarify concern over possible military dimensions to its nuclear program. South Africa's amendment would add: 'once it (the framework deal) has been concluded,' a formulation which Western diplomats said could dilute some of the pressure on Tehran." http://t.uani.com/QeiKrt

WSJ: "At least several European banks that vowed to stop doing business with Iran have kept handling billions of euros in transactions for Iranian entities and foreign companies with operations there, a review of regulatory filings and other documents by The Wall Street Journal shows. The dealings aren't suspected of violating any sanctions, which are looser for the Continent's banks under European Union rules than prohibitions imposed by the U.S. But some government officials and banking experts said the banks are risking embarrassment or regulatory problems in the U.S. as it scrutinizes financial transactions with sanctioned countries. 'The risk to reputation and legal standing is great,' said Iain Begg, a professor at the London School of Economics, adding that any bank still active in Iran could jeopardize its access to the U.S. Germany's Deutsche Bank AG handled as much as $2.8 billion in transactions with Iran last year. Other banks still doing business in Iran include France's BNP Paribas SA, Banco Santander SA of Spain, ING Groep NV of the Netherlands and HSBC Holdings PLC of the U.K. ... The dealings are a sign of Iran's continued access to the global financial system despite U.S. efforts to isolate Iran, and go against a perception among some observers that the banks have cut ties to Iran completely." http://t.uani.com/TVCeCa
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Nuclear Program

WSJ: "The U.S. and several of its allies aim to step up pressure on Iran with a proposal that would empower the United Nations nuclear watchdog to order snap inspections of Iranian nuclear facilities. In a draft resolution presented Wednesday, the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council-the U.S., Russia, China, France, the United Kingdom-plus Germany called it 'essential and urgent' that Iran give international inspectors unfettered access to its nuclear sites. The International Atomic Energy Agency's board of governors is expected to approve the resolution at its meeting in Vienna this week, diplomats said. Legally, the language of the resolution, particularly the use of the words "essential and urgent," would give the U.N. agency some more leverage in its long-standing and often stalled probe of Iran's nuclear program, which the U.S. and its allies suspect is being used to develop weapons, a charge Tehran denies. Although the atomic agency doesn't have power to enforce resolutions, not obeying an order for a snap inspection would put Iran in violation of the U.N. nuclear safeguards treaty it signed onto in 1974 and could further isolate it diplomatically." http://t.uani.com/O1x08n

WSJ: "A bipartisan group of ambassadors, retired generals and foreign policy experts is warning against a U.S. or Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear facilities without a more thorough public discussion to weigh the costs and benefits. In a paper and letter to be released Thursday, the group argues that an attack could delay Iran's development of a nuclear weapon for up to four years, but would have other consequences, such as rallying the Iranian people behind the current regime and solidifying the government's hold on power. The group, which includes retired Marine Gen. Anthony Zinni, former National Security advisor Brent Scowcroft and former deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage, who served in Republican administrations, doesn't oppose military action across the board. But members argue that the country needs a more thorough debate about the consequences of an attack on Iran." http://t.uani.com/OrzoVT

Sanctions

Reuters: "U.S. economic sanctions against Iran have slashed the country's crude exports and oil revenue, the U.S. Treasury said on Wednesday as it vowed to keep up the pressure on Tehran to prevent the Iranian government from getting nuclear weapons... U.S. efforts have paid off with Iranian crude exports down to about 1 million barrels of oil per day from the approximately 2.4 million barrels last year, the U.S. Treasury said. This hit to exports is costing Iran about $5 billion a month, 'forcing the Iranian government to cut its budget because of a lack of revenue,' Treasury Undersecretary David Cohen said at the New York University School of Law... Citing sanctions the United States has imposed on Iran, Syria and, last year, on Libya, Cohen said the strategy is 'a heck of a lot better than a war.'" http://t.uani.com/RLRwKs

FT: "Iran managed to increase its exports of crude oil last month, but the rise is likely to be temporary as the US and EU prepare to tighten sanctions on Tehran over its nuclear programme. In its monthly survey of the oil market, the International Energy Agency said exports of Iranian oil inched up to 1.1m barrels a day in August, from less than 1m b/d in July. But the respite for Iran is expected to be brief, with US and European officials said to be considering tougher measures against Tehran in response to its perceived intransigence in nuclear negotiations. Sanctions on Iran have reduced its oil production to 2.85m b/d, a 22-year low. Output is now 650,000 b/d lower than at the end of last year." http://t.uani.com/O1xgEl

Reuters: "Iran is using a little-known port off the East Malaysia coast to hide millions of barrels of oil from Western sanctions, according to shipping data, industry sources and officials. A Reuters examination of shipping movements and interviews shows how Iranian crude is shipped to the area and loaded on to empty vessels at night to await potential Asian buyers. Storing the oil on hired tankers operating under the Panamanian flag in the calm waters off the tax-haven port of Labuan - an offshore financial centre about the size of Manhattan - means Iran can keep its own fleet active and ensure the flow of oil money into its struggling economy. At least two large oil tankers have been unloaded this way in recent weeks and several more Iranian vessels were steaming towards Asia, according to Reuters Freight Fundamentals, which tracks the movement of the global tanker fleet. One was destined for a Chinese port, while three others, carrying as much as 6 million barrels of crude or fuel oil, were sailing to unknown destinations." http://t.uani.com/U8Bqaz

Reuters: "Two senators asked the Obama administration on Wednesday to push countries to make more cuts in Iranian oil purchases before they receive exemptions from U.S. penalties for doing business with the OPEC nation. In a letter to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Senators Mark Kirk and Robert Menendez said they believed the administration should ensure oil-consuming countries have cut Iranian crude purchases by about 18 percent before the United States renews 180-day exemptions to sanctions. Kirk and Menendez were two architects of the sanctions laws... Kirk and Menendez said reductions should continue to be made because the Energy Information Administration, an independent branch of the Energy Department, has found that increased production from Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Libya has partly made up for production lost in Iran due to the sanctions." http://t.uani.com/OJuMq1

Reuters: "Iran is hoping that radical reform of its currency market will help to stabilise the rial, which has been badly battered by Western economic sanctions, speculators and inconsistent government policy. The rial's unofficial rate plunged to record lows around 25,000 to the U.S. dollar this week, less than half its value a year ago, as Iranians rushed to convert their savings into hard currencies. They fear the sanctions, imposed over the country's disputed nuclear programme, will prevent the central bank from preserving the value of the rial. To combat the slide, authorities have proposed establishing a currency exchange that would bring together major traders and replace the small, scattered money changers which dot Iran's cities." http://t.uani.com/LWnH4n

NYT: "Lawyers within the Treasury Department have recommended a preliminary settlement with Standard Chartered, clearing the path for the British bank to pay a penalty to state and federal prosecutors and to move beyond claims that it flouted laws governing international money transfers. The lawyers approved a potential prepayment amount this week, a crucial step to a final agreement, though it will be much smaller than the $340 million the bank had to pay to New York State's top banking regulator in a related case, according to three officials with direct knowledge of the settlement talks. The differing penalties stem from determinations by federal authorities and Manhattan prosecutors that the bank's suspected wrongdoing was much less extensive than the state banking regulator's claims that Standard Chartered had schemed with Iran to hide from regulators 60,000 transactions worth $250 billion over a decade." http://t.uani.com/UOlzQv

NYT: "European governments are displaying increasing nervousness about the possibility of an Israeli strike on Iran and are trying to persuade the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that tougher sanctions are still the best weapon to curb Tehran's nuclear ambitions. The message has been carried to Israel in recent days by, among others, the foreign ministers of Germany and Italy and, according to one report, by the head of Britain's spy agency, MI6." http://t.uani.com/U9cM9D
Opinion & Analysis

Michael Weiss in NOW Lebanon: "Controlled Engagement Policy may sound like a legal condition for Tom Cruise's visitation rights with his daughter, but up until last week it was how Canada defined diplomacy with Iran. Basically, the relationship was one of North American nose-holding as the only real business Ottawa got up to with Tehran was over human rights, Iran's nuclear program, its nefarious mucking about in the Middle East, and the 2003 case of a Canadian-Iranian photojournalist who died (or was killed) in Iranian custody. There were never any ambassadors stationed in either country, just representations. But all that's over now. Citing Tehran's violation of UN resolutions, its military assistance of the Assad regime in Syria, and its chronic anti-Semitism and incitement to genocide, Canadian Foreign Minister John Baird said: 'Canada has closed its embassy in Iran, effective immediately, and declared personae non gratae all remaining Iranian diplomats in Canada.' This bold Maple Leaf maneuver led to feverish speculation that the Canadians knew something the rest of us didn't, perhaps about Israeli or American war plans in Persia. But the truth is simpler and more mundane: Canada killed diplomacy with Iran because Iran was using Canada as a base for spying, as the excellent Macleans journalist Michael Petrou said in a study put out by the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. According to Petrou, the Iranian Embassy in Ottawa is 'a busy hub from where Iran seeks-both covertly and overtly-to spy on anti-regime activists in Canada, shape public policy, and build relations with influential Iranian-Canadians, as well as politicians, students, academics and police.' And the Iranian regime was stupid enough to acknowledge the fact. Hamid Mohammadi, a cultural affairs counselor at the embassy, said in an interview in July that his goal was to encourage Iranian-Canadians to 'occupy high-level key positions' and 'resist being melted into the dominant Canadian culture.' Well, you can't do both unless you're up to no good. Replicating the tactics used by the Comintern, Iran couches its covert spy recruitment and infiltration operations in the language of 'peace' and 'friendship,' typically channeled through thinly disguised cultural outreach." http://t.uani.com/RLXriG

Fareed Zakaria in WashPost: "Underneath the headlines of the presidential campaign, there are growing signs that we are moving toward another war in the Middle East. This week Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu publicly scolded the United States for refusing to draw a 'red line' on Iran's nuclear program that, if crossed, would commit Washington to military strikes. He added that he would not accept a 'red light' placed in front of Israel. Unless something dramatic changes its course, Israel is on a path to strike Iran's nuclear facilities in the next six to nine months. Israel's rhetoric over the past year had seemed, to me, designed to force the international community into action and the United States into hyper-action. It worked in the sense that international sanctions and isolation of Iran are at their highest point ever. But Iran has not surrendered, and Israel seems to view any other scenario as unacceptable. Last month, an Israeli 'decision maker' - widely reported to be Defense Minister Ehud Barak - gave a revealing interview to the newspaper Haaretz in which he implied that Israel could not wait for the United States to act and might not be able to wait until next spring before taking matters into its own hands. The 'decision maker' made the point that Israel might find itself more hamstrung if Mitt Romney were elected in November. '[H]istory shows that presidents do not undertake dramatic operations in their first year in office unless forced to,' he said. This strikes me as an accurate reading of the likely scenario that a Romney administration would view economic policy as its urgent preoccupation upon taking office. The Obama administration has brought together a global coalition, put into place the toughest sanctions ever, worked with Israel on a series of covert programs and given Israel military hardware it has long wanted. In addition, the Obama administration has strongly implied that it would be willing to use force as a final resort. But to go further and define a red line in advance would commit the United States to waging a war; no country would make such a commitment. Notice that while Netanyahu assails Obama for refusing to draw a clear line, he himself has not drawn such a line. Israel has not specified an activity or enrichment level it would consider a casus belli.The reason is obvious: Doing so would restrict Israel's options and signal its actions and timetable to Iran. If it doesn't make sense for Israel to do this, why would it make sense for the United States?" http://t.uani.com/QQNHUt 

Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.

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