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Reuters:
"Iran's nuclear deal with the West will make it easier, cheaper and
less stressful to trade its oil, thanks largely to a partial lifting of
the European shipping insurance ban, a senior Iranian industry official
said on Tuesday. Iran and six world powers reached a deal on Sunday to
curb Tehran's nuclear program in exchange for limited sanctions relief,
including a pledge to allow some Iran oil shipments to be covered by
UK-dominated providers of shipping insurance... 'Based on this deal,
Iran's crude oil exports will not decline and our customers will be able
to purchase oil from Iran without any anxiety and they will not have to
look for alternatives,' Ali Majedi, deputy minister for international
affairs and trading, told oil ministry news service Shana. 'No new
sanctions will be slapped on Iran's oil industry in the coming six months
and our customers can clinch term contracts with Iran instead of spot oil
consignments purchased from National Iranian Oil Company.' ... 'Iran
crude oil exports costs increased because, besides us, our customers had
also to pay more to insure crude oil cargoes,' Majedi was quoted as
saying. 'Based on the action plan signed between Iran and P5+1 (group of
world powers), the European Union's insurance sanctions against oil
tankers carrying Iran's oil have been lifted so crude oil exports will be
done more easily, at lower costs and within the framework of
international regulations.'" http://t.uani.com/1if9SRY
NYT:
"The United States on Tuesday announced one of the biggest
settlements ever made for corporate misbehavior overseas, chronicling a
litany of charges against a leading energy services provider. The charges
included bribery and kickbacks in the Middle East and Africa and
systematic defiance of economic sanctions on Iran and three other
countries. The announcement came two days after the United States and
other world powers reached a breakthrough agreement with Iran that eases,
at least temporarily, some of the sanctions over its disputed nuclear
program. The timing of the announcement seemed to be partly intended to
send a signal that the Obama administration still considers Iran subject
to economic isolation, despite the atmosphere of rapprochement embodied
in the nuclear agreement. The Securities and Exchange Commission said the
company that settled, Weatherford International Ltd., a Swiss provider of
oil and gas services that operates in more than 100 countries, had agreed
to pay more than $250 million to resolve charges that it violated the
Foreign Corrupt Practices Act and other laws from 2002 to 2011... Critics
of the agreement with Iran welcomed the Weatherford settlement but noted
that it applied to behavior that had been halted years ago. 'The real
question is whether the Treasury Department will be permitted politically
to enforce current sanctions for current illicit activity,' said Mark
Wallace, the chief executive of United Against Nuclear Iran, a New
York-based group that has pushed for stronger sanctions on Iran." http://t.uani.com/1eqsvN6
Reuters:
"Iran will press on with construction at a nuclear reactor site at
Arak, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammed Javad Zarif said on Wednesday,
despite an agreement with Western powers to halt activity. The
uncompleted heavy-water research reactor emerged as one of several
crucial issues in negotiations in Geneva last week, when Iran agreed with
six world powers to curb Tehran's nuclear programme for six months in
return for limited sanctions relief. Iran said it would not make 'any
further advances of its activities' on the Arak reactor, according to
text of the agreement. 'The capacity at the Arak site is not going to
increase. It means no new nuclear fuel will be produced and no new
installations will be installed, but construction will continue there,'
Zarif told parliament in translated comments broadcast on Iran's Press
TV. But experts have said an apparent gap in the text could allow Tehran
to build components off-site to install later in the nuclear reactor. It
was not immediately clear if Zarif was referring to this or other
construction activity." http://t.uani.com/1aUQbJV
 Nuclear Agreement
Fox
News: "Despite the highly touted Iranian nuclear deal
announced by the Obama administration over the weekend, the two sides
still can't seem to agree on what it is they agreed to. The aftermath of
the deal struck early Sunday in Geneva has been marked by confusion.
According to Iranian media, the country's Foreign Ministry is now
claiming that the White House put out an invalid fact sheet about the
agreement. A ministry spokeswoman called it a 'one-sided interpretation
of the agreed text,' and said parts of it 'contradict' the actual plan,
according to Fars News Agency. The Foreign Ministry did not specify
what language might have clashed with their interpretation of the
agreement, but called the White House statement a 'modified version of
the deal' -- and released their own version of the plan. That document,
among other distinctions, recognizes Iran's 'right to nuclear energy for
peaceful purposes,' something the White House statement does not
mention." http://t.uani.com/17UbYQx
Free Beacon:
"The White House confirmed to the Washington Free Beacon on Monday
that the final details of the plan have yet to be worked out, meaning
that Iran is not yet beholden to a six month freeze its nuclear
activities. 'Technical details to implement the Joint Plan of Action must
be finalized before the terms of the Plan begin,' a senior administration
official told the Free Beacon. 'The P5+1 and Iran are working on what the
timeframe is.' The White House could not provide additional details on
the timeframe when approached by the Free Beacon on Tuesday. As the
details are finalized, Iran will have the ability to continue its most
controversial enrichment program. This drew criticism from proponents of
tough nuclear restrictions. 'The six month clock should have started
early Sunday morning,' said former Ambassador Mark Wallace, the CEO of
United Against a Nuclear Iran (UANI). 'If this is a serious agreement,
the P5+1 must ensure that these negotiations do not become a tool for
Iran to further increase its enrichment abilities.'" http://t.uani.com/1b4ts9W
AFP:
"Iran's President Hassan Rouhani on Tuesday hailed a landmark
interim nuclear deal reached with world powers this week as the right
step in a 'long' journey to a comprehensive accord. He stressed that
Iran's enrichment of uranium -- which according to the deal will be
limited to five percent purity -- would continue as his negotiators
engage with the so-called P5+1 -- the United States, Britain, France,
China, Russia and Germany. 'Agreement in Geneva is a very positive first step,
but the journey before us is long,' Rouhani said in a live address on
state television to mark his cabinet's 100th day. 'Step by step, we're
moving towards achieving a comprehensive agreement with the P5+1.' But he
added: 'Enrichment, which is part of our rights, will continue. Iran will
never abandon its enrichment activities.' ... 'Everyone is happy about
this deal' except for 'warmongers and that regime, which is an
illegitimate one that occupies,' Rouhani said, referring to Israel, which
Islamic republic does not recognise. The deal, Rouhani said, had already
created a 'positive atmosphere' in the Iranian economy, which is enduring
a crisis 'unprecedented in 50 years.'" http://t.uani.com/IsEUoU
FT:
"Iran's nuclear deal with global powers is 'more dangerous than
9/11,' according to a commentator in the Saudi-owned Asharq Alawsat
newspaper, who likened the impact of last weekend's historic pact to the
terrorist attacks on the US in 2001. The startling comparison underscores
the depth of fear among Sunni Gulf states about Shia Iran's potential
rise as a regional superpower and is a reflection of wider Saudi public
opinion. 'Obama sold the region, abandoning the US's historic alliance
with the Gulf,' Tariq Alhomayed, who is believed to be close to Saudi policymakers,
wrote in the pan-Arab newspaper... 'We are seeing a shift in American
policy in the Middle East. It looks like they [the US] have lost interest
in the region,' says Hussein Shobokshi, a Jeddah-based economist.
'Nothing has changed in Iran, its policy has not changed,' he said. 'Iran
is still part of the 'axis of evil.'" http://t.uani.com/1b4pz4K
FT:
"Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, one of Iran's most influential political
leaders, has raised hopes of a comprehensive nuclear deal with world
powers within a year. In a rare interview with the Financial Times in
Tehran, Mr Rafsanjani, 79, declared that Sunday's interim deal was the
hardest step because it meant overcoming decades of diplomatic
estrangement with the US going back to the 1979 Islamic revolution. 'It
was breaking the ice, the second stage will be more routine' ... He
said Iran had no interest in developing nuclear weapons and dismissed
Israeli threats of a military strike to curb its nuclear programme.
'Israel is so small; no small fish can eat big fish.'" http://t.uani.com/1cv9Pe4
WSJ:
"For a decade, the U.S. military posture in the Middle East has been
largely defined by the potential need for a response to Iran-aircraft
carriers in the Persian Gulf, missile defense programs in Eastern Europe
and arms sales to Arab allies among them. Even with an interim agreement
in place with Iran over its nuclear program, U.S. defense officials say
they have no plans to alter their U.S. strategy or the muscular military
presence around the Middle East. 'Our force posture has not changed, nor
will it,' Col. Steve Warren, the Pentagon spokesman, said this
week." http://t.uani.com/1a48Tu7
AFP:
"Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif went before
parliament on Wednesday to defend a landmark nuclear deal clinched at the
weekend with world powers, media reported... Some parliamentarians, led
by hardline MP Rouhollah Hosseinian, expressed misgivings at the
agreement. 'We are worried about the consequences of the agreement, and
we communicate (this disquiet) with the government to find a more prudent
and accurate way,' said Hosseinian. 'The wording of the agreement about
uranium enrichment is implicit and it can only mean limiting (Iran's)
enrichment right.' Conservative lawmaker Alireza Zakani, as quoted by the
Fars news agency, also expressed frustration at deal. 'We are being
deprived from having a peaceful nuclear programme while the region's
cancerous tumour can use a nuclear bomb,' said Zakani, referring to
Israel, widely believed to be the region's sole if undeclared nuclear
power." http://t.uani.com/1c8C8R6
Sanctions
AFP:
"Kerry, and the US administration of President Barack Obama, are
seeking to head off moves in Congress to draw up new sanctions against
Iran. In a round of phone calls to lawmakers, Kerry would urge that
'passing any new sanctions legislation during the course of the
negotiations, in our view, would be unhelpful and could put the success
of the outcome at risk,' State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki said. The
White House echoed the message, warning any 'additional sanctions before
this diplomatic window could be pursued would undermine our credibility
about the goal of these sanctions.' Deputy White House spokesman Josh
Earnest added: 'We're not sanctioning just for the sake of sanctions and
we're not sanctioning the Iranians specifically to punish them. We have
these sanctions in place to pressure Iran to consider and pursue a
diplomatic option.'" http://t.uani.com/1fIZzE1
FT:
"Iran's oil ministry has opened contacts with western majors as the
government of Hassan Rouhani tries to capitalise on progress in nuclear
talks and encourage companies to prepare for an eventual lifting of
sanctions. Bijan Namdar Zanganeh, the veteran oil minister who has
returned to government after an eight-year absence, told the Financial
Times he had held meetings with European companies and 'indirectly' with
US firms with a view to inviting them back to Iran. In his first
interview with the foreign media, the minister who persuaded the likes of
Total, Royal Dutch Shell, Eni and Statoil to invest in the oil and gas
sector in the 1990s despite US sanctions, said these companies were now
among those he was seeking to attract back to Iran... But it is clear
Iran is way down most oil companies' list of priorities. 'With the shale
revolution, there are a lot more opportunities out there for us,' said a
senior executive at one European oil major. 'Iran will have to compete
for investment with lots of other places that offer much more attractive
terms.' The Iranian government is reviewing the terms of oil contracts
and intends to replace the unpopular agreements known as buybacks with a
form of service contract. Production-sharing agreements favoured by
companies are not on the table, said Mr Zanganeh, but Iran was planning
to offer better terms than its neighbours, including Iraq. Mr Zanganeh
was clear that no energy deal could be signed before Iran and world
powers agreed on a comprehensive settlement to the nuclear programme,
which would lead to a lifting of sanctions." http://t.uani.com/1a4gB7m
Reuters:
"India could buy more crude from Iran in the next four months and
intends to increase purchases further in the next fiscal year, the
petroleum secretary said, after a deal last weekend eased some sanctions
on the OPEC member. India is the first of Tehran's four main buyers to
say it is looking to buy more oil from Iran after the agreement in
Geneva... Although the agreement doesn't allow Iran to boost its oil
sales for six months, India has room to increase its imports after they
tumbled around 40 percent this year to below even what was permitted by
sanctions. India intends to buy up to an average 220,000 barrels per day
(bpd) of oil from Iran in the year ending March 31, Petroleum Secretary
Vivek Rae said on Wednesday. That's consistent with a goal of cutting
India's Iran oil shipments 15 percent this year to win waivers on U.S.
sanctions. But India's April-October imports are running at less than 80
percent of that level, at about 170,000 bpd, meaning India could raise
its imports between December and March and still hit the target." http://t.uani.com/1ghVeVG
WSJ:
"The European Union will maintain sanctions against all but two
Iranian firms that won challenges to the bloc's sanctions regime in EU
courts in September, an EU official said Tuesday. The EU will on
Wednesday formally announce it is maintaining sanctions against almost
all the firms by 're-listing' them for new sanctions breaches, the
official says. The EU hopes that by re-listing companies and providing
additional evidence, it can secure its Iran sanctions regime for the
foreseeable future... Tuesday's decision relates to 16 of the 18
companies that won their challenges in the EU's second highest court on
Sept. 16 and the effort to relist them will be unaffected by the weekend
agreement. The bloc relisted on Nov. 16 eight companies affected by a
court ruling on Sept. 6... The EU is relisting all the companies with the
exception of two IRISL subsidiaries--IRISL Club and Leadmarine. The
reason for the two exceptions wasn't immediately clear." http://t.uani.com/1b4qhPt
Reuters:
"Turkish mobile phone company Turkcell has taken to a South African
court its $4.2 billion lawsuit against rival MTN Group, alleging it was
the victim of 'corruption and bribery' that caused it to lose a contract
in Iran. Turkcell originally filed suit in a U.S. court last year,
alleging Johannesburg-based MTN used bribery and wrongful influence to
win a mobile licence in Iran that was first awarded to the Turkish
operator. It dropped that suit in May after a U.S. Supreme Court ruling
in a separate case made clear that U.S. courts would not have
jurisdiction in a case involving two foreign firms in a dispute outside
the United States. In papers filed on Tuesday with the South Gauteng High
Court in Johannesburg, seen by Reuters, Turkcell claims that MTN, former
CEO and current Chairman Phuthuma Nhleko and former executive Irene
Charnley 'acted wrongfully' and interfered with Turkcell's relationship
with the Iranian government. The alleged interference involved 'corrupt
acts' including 'promises of bribes and the bestowing of gifts and
favours to Iranian and South African Government officials,' Turkcell said
in its filing." http://t.uani.com/1if9gvR
Human Rights
IHR:
"According to reliable sources in Iran eleven prisoners, among them
one woman, were hanged in the Ghezelhesar prison of Karaj (west of
Tehran). The female prisoner was transferred from the Gharchak prison of
Varamin to Ghezelhesar for execution... According to the Iranian State
Broadcasting, one Afghan citizen was hanged in public in the town of
Khonj (Fars Province, southern Iran) on Sunday. The prisoner who was not
identified by name was 32 year old and convicted of two murders allegedly
committed in 2006." http://t.uani.com/1ezZAXN
Domestic
Politics
Reuters:
"President Hassan Rouhani said Iran's economic problems went beyond
sanctions, blaming 'unparalleled stagflation' on the profligacy and
mismanagement of his predecessor, hardliner Mahmoud Ahmadinejad... 'The
stagflation in 1391 was unparalleled,' Rouhani said, referring to the
Iranian year that ended in March. During that year, the economy
contracted by 6 percent, while inflation rose above 40 percent, he said.
The International Monetary Fund expects Iran's economy will shrink 1.5
percent this year in inflation-adjusted terms, after an estimated 1.9
percent contraction last year which was the biggest since 1988, when
Iran's eight-year war with Iraq ended. Despite receiving 600 billion
dollars in oil revenue over the past eight years, Rouhani said the legacy
of Ahmadinejad's two terms was around $67 billion dollars of debt. Iran's
nominal GDP was $549 billion in 2012 and will shrink to $389 billion in
2013, according to the IMF's October outlook... Rouhani said reducing inflation
was a priority. Inflation had fallen to 36 percent by the end of October
and the government aimed to bring it below 25 percent by the end of the
following Iranian year - March 2015 in the Western calendar." http://t.uani.com/18792Nt
WashPost:
"One hundred days into his first term as Iran's president, Hassan
Rouhani offered an upbeat progress report to the country Tuesday, two
days after a nuclear deal with world powers gave his young administration
a much-needed boost. 'We pride ourselves on being accountable to our
people,' Rouhani said at the start of a live television
question-and-answer session in which he outlined his administration's
handling of Iran's domestic and foreign affairs since taking power in
August. Among the successes Rouhani highlighted were a steep drop in
inflation, harmony among the three branches of government, reduced
domestic security restrictions since he took office and the announcement
of a draft charter of citizens' rights for Iranians. 'Citizenship rights
is about making all Iranians feel they are part of one nation, one
identity, under one umbrella they can feel proud of,' he said... Thus
far, there has been little sign of progress on several in¬trac¬table
domestic challenges. After promising greater Internet freedoms, Rouhani
has not acted to open up access or increase Internet security for
Iranians. During his campaign and the early weeks of his presidency, many
speculated that social media sites such as Twitter and Facebook, which
have been blocked since the 2009 presidential election, would be
accessible again... Human rights is another issue that has yet to be
fully addressed. In September, several high-profile political prisoners
were freed, sparking hope that the leaders of the 2009 post-election
protest movement, Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, would be
released after three years of house arrest. But Rouhani has done little
to address the subject, disappointing many supporters of Iran's reform
movement who voted for him expecting clearer and more concrete support
from the new administration. Rights groups such as Amnesty International
also say Iran has increased the rate of executions since Rouhani took
office. Political detentions, like capital punishment, are under the
judiciary's supervision, but Rouhani has offered no discernible
objections to either policy, providing fodder for critics at home and
abroad who say he differs little from his predecessors." http://t.uani.com/1gi4tFv
Opinion
& Analysis
UANI CEO Mark Wallace & UANI Research Director Matan
Shamir in Harvard Belfer Center's Iran Matters:
"With the election of Hassan Rouhani as President of Iran, the P5+1
have discussed agreement on a potential interim nuclear accord with
Tehran. As part of such an agreement, the notion of 'sanctions-easing'
has entered the lexicon as a potentially viable inducement for Iran to
assent to such a deal. President Obama has likened the use of
sanctions to that of a spigot - to be turned up or down as needed by the
administration. It is widely accepted that the consequences of the
current sanctions law and regulations is what spurred Tehran to come
seriously to the negotiating table over the particulars of its nuclear
program. The U.S. and international sanctions on Iran have been arguably
the most robust sanctions regime in history against any country dependent
on trade with the global economy. However, the lessons and experience of
Iran sanctions belie comparisons to a spigot and suggest that
'sanctions-easing' is not possible to implement with the precision of a
spigot. The current sanctions regime is similar to the precise
architecture of a building made of disparate but necessary elements such
as metal, mortar and brick. Take away any of the necessary elements and
the building becomes structurally unsound. In the case of Iran sanctions,
the architecture has relied on four interdependent elements: (1)
Increasingly strict laws and regulations, (2) enforcement action, (3)
reputational risk, and; (4) the psychological impact on the Iranian
economy. The danger is that if the White House agrees to roll back any of
these key elements as part of 'sanctions-easing,' or through a
substantial unfreezing of sanctioned assets, the carefully constructed
sanctions house will crumble and consequential pressure on the Iranian
economy will ease far more than intended... With hundreds of major
multinationals like General Electric, Siemens, Caterpillar, Ingersoll
Rand, and KPMG leaving Iran, the increasingly successful sanctions regime
triggered powerful economic and psychological pressure on the Iranian
economy with measureable effect-the collapse of the Iranian rial. From
2002 through 2010, the official and black market rates of the Iranian
rial corresponded closely with each other at about 10,000 rials to the
dollar. The gulf between the official and black market rate began to
widen in January 2011, and by October 2012, the black market rial
exchange rate had dropped as low as 40,000 to the dollar, more than three
times the official exchange rate of 12,260. Iran was suffering from
hyperinflation with little hope of correction because of the inability to
adequately sell its vast hydrocarbon resources and its inability to
access sanction-frozen foreign currency reserves that were stranded in
various central banks abroad. Iranian consumers and the international
currency markets had clearly lost confidence in the Iranian economy.
Since President Rouhani's inauguration, the pressure on the Iranian
economy has already begun to ease even before agreement on an interim
nuclear accord that 'eases' sanctions... President Rouhani's election and
the current cycle of apparently friendly negotiation has inspired greater
consumer confidence in Iran, and less reputational risk for international
companies that have begun to openly prepare themselves to reenter the
Iranian market. Just as a result of these factors alone have sanctions
been 'eased' and the black market rial exchange rate rallied to 29,950 to
the dollar in early November, bringing it nearly in line with the official
exchange rate of 24,900. Iran's sanctions-hobbled economy has rallied
despite the fact that Rouhani has not yet secured an iota of official
sanctions relief. Consequently, entering into continued nuclear
negotiations, the leverage of the U.S. and its partners has declined as
reputational risk declines, enforcement is loosened and plans for the
enactment of more rigorous laws and regulations are shelved. So far
President Rouhani has made good on his mandate and sanctions have already
been 'eased' without a single legal or regulatory change. The P5+1's
leverage will decline much further and the air will effectively be let
out of the sanctions balloon if an interim deal is struck that provides
actual sanctions-easing. Contrary to the administration's claims, it is a
fallacious notion that sanctions are akin to a spigot to turn off and
back on. Rather, regulating the severity of sanctions is more like
attempting to stop air from escaping a popped balloon. As soon as a
part of the sanctions regime is withdrawn, and enforcement continues on
the decline, the reputational risk of business with Iran lessens and the
psychological impact on Iran and its rial dissipates -- quickly. The
result of so-called limited 'sanctions-easing' will be to strengthen the
Iranian rial in a manner far quicker and disproportionate to the notion
of 'easing' and will effectively serve to gut the measurable impact of
sanctions that has taken years to develop. In such an event, Iran's
economy will rise quickly from its state of duress and the U.S. and its
partners will find themselves with insufficient coercive leverage to
conclude a minimally acceptable final agreement in which Iran accepts
physical limits on the scale and scope of its nuclear program." http://t.uani.com/18nX1ZX
UANI President
Gary Samore in Harvard Belfer Center's Iran Matters:
"The reason why the P5+1 partners decided to conclude an interim
deal as a first step rather than negotiate a final agreement all at once
is because Iran is not willing to make the concessions necessary for
comprehensive sanctions relief at this time. Describing U.S.
requirements for a comprehensive solution, President Obama said, 'Because
of its record of violating its obligations, Iran must accept strict
limitations on its nuclear program that make it impossible to develop a
nuclear weapon.' For Washington, this means prohibiting Iran from being
able to quickly produce large quantities of fissile material for nuclear
weapons by limiting the scope and scale of Iran's enrichment program,
preventing completion of the Arak heavy water research reactor and
imposing strong international monitoring to detect cheating. In effect,
these limits would require Supreme Leader Ali Khameini to abandon (at
least for the time being) Iran's longstanding efforts to acquire a
nuclear weapons capability, which he is loath to do. Nonetheless,
for the P5+1, an interim deal that slows or freezes some critical aspects
of Iran's nuclear program is preferable to no deal, which would lead to
another escalatory cycle of increased sanctions and increased nuclear
activities, moving Iran's closer to nuclear weapons and increasing the
risk of military conflict. But, what are the prospects that the Geneva
agreement will actually create conditions for negotiating a comprehensive
agreement in six months? If the current level of sanctions is not
sufficient to compel Iran to abandon its nuclear weapons program, it
seems unlikely that reduced sanctions under the six month deal would be
enough to fundamentally change Iran's calculations. However, if the
P5+1 are able to sustain the sanctions that remain in place during the
six-month negotiations, and if Iran believes that the P5+1 are willing
and able to reinstate the sanctions that have been eased and impose
additional sanctions in the absence of a final deal, then Iran is more
likely to accept demands for additional nuclear constraints. But, the
P5+1 will not be in a position to dictate terms to Iran. Just as
the P5+1 can threaten to re-impose and increase sanctions in the absence
of sufficient nuclear concessions, Iran can threaten to restart and
expand its nuclear program if the P5+1 demand too much or offer too
little. Tehran undoubtedly hopes that partial sanctions relief under the
six month deal will create new loopholes to evade the remaining sanctions
and erode the overall sanctions architecture, as countries and companies
maneuver to resume business in anticipation that sanctions will be wholly
lifted. To maintain pressure, Washington and its partners
will need to demonstrate that they can enforce the remaining sanctions,
including sanctioning countries or companies that seek to exploit the
loosening of sanctions, and they will need to convincingly threaten to
walk away from the negotiations if Iran rejects their demands.
The U.S. Congress can help strengthen the threat by expressing support
for additional sanctions legislation after six months in the absence of
sufficient progress towards a final deal. In conclusion, in the interim
deal, both sides agreed to stand down from escalating hostile action
against the other, but each side retains its biggest bargaining leverage
for the much tougher negotiations that lie ahead. As such, it
is unlikely that a final deal can be achieved within six months because
the parties remain very far apart on the central issue of whether Iran
will dismantle most of its enrichment program, abandon the Arak reactor
and accept intrusive monitoring." http://t.uani.com/18nXnjb
Yaakov Amidror in
The International New York Times: "Just after the
signing ceremony in Geneva on Sunday, President Hassan Rouhani of Iran
declared that the world had recognized his country's 'nuclear rights.' He
was right. The agreement Iran reached with the so-called P5+1 - the
United States, Britain, China, France and Russia, plus Germany - does not
significantly roll back Iran's nuclear capabilities. Iran made only
cosmetic concessions to preserve its primary goal, which is to continue
enriching uranium. The agreement represents a failure, not a triumph, of
diplomacy. With North Korea, too, there were talks and ceremonies and
agreements - but then there was the bomb. This is not an outcome Israel
could accept with Iran. Harsh sanctions led Iran to the negotiating
table. The easing of those sanctions will now send companies from around
the world racing into Iran to do business, which will lead to the
eventual collapse of the sanctions that supposedly remain. Might economic
relief, reduced isolation and new goodwill lead to greater pressure on
the Iranian regime to reach a fuller agreement later? I doubt it: As
recently as last week, Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei,
denounced Israel as a 'rabid dog,' a jab that Western leaders failed to
condemn. The deal will only lead Iran to be more stubborn. Anyone who has
conducted business or diplomatic negotiations knows that you don't reduce
the pressure on your opponent on the eve of negotiations. Yet that is
essentially what happened in Geneva. Iran will not only get to keep its
existing 18,000 centrifuges; it will also be allowed to continue
developing the next generation of centrifuges, provided it does not
install them in uranium-enrichment facilities. Which is to say: Its
uranium-enrichment capability is no weaker... The Geneva deal, in short,
did not address the nuclear threat at all. This was Iran's great
accomplishment. No wonder Mr. Rouhani boasted that the world had
recognized Iran's nuclear rights... There is no reason to think that the
six powers will have more leverage in the future than they had before the
Geneva agreement. On the contrary, they just gave that leverage away.
After years of disingenuous negotiations, Iran is now just a few months
away from a bomb." http://t.uani.com/1b4nUMr
Roula Khalaf in
FT: "Back in 1988, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini,
founder of the Islamic republic, had a radical change of heart, accepting
a UN ceasefire to end Iran's devastating eight-year war with Iraq. Taking
the decision, the ayatollah said, was more deadly than 'drinking from a
poisoned chalice'. Twenty-five years on, Iran has embraced another
momentous shift in policy, agreeing for the first time in a decade to
freeze components of its cherished nuclear programme. So has Ayatollah
Ali Khamenei, supreme leader and Khomeini's successor, drunk from the
same cup? Not quite. The verdict of government insiders and analysts in
Tehran is that the leader might have taken a sip, but whether he will
swallow the rest is far from guaranteed. In hardline as much as in
reformist circles, everyone is agreed: Iran takes on the burden of proving
that it will not militarise its nuclear efforts but a comprehensive
settlement will only be achieved if it can, at the same time, hold on to
its low-level uranium enrichment programme. One person close to the
government says that, in backing the negotiations that led to Sunday's
six-month agreement with world powers, Mr Khamenei was leaving his
options open... To be sure, there is much truth in western governments'
assertions that the effectiveness of sanctions forced Iran to compromise.
One disheartened official says sanctions have been 'more destructive' to
Iran's economy than the eight-year war with Iraq. The 74-year-old leader,
however, had additional motivation to roll back the nuclear programme. He
had no choice but to recognise in the June election of Hassan Rouhani,
the centrist president, the depth of the nation's desperation for an end
to isolation - and the danger to the regime of marching against the
sweeping mood of discontent." http://t.uani.com/18nSO8z
Sohrab Ahmari in
WSJ: "On Sunday, I spoke on the phone with Payam
Fazlinejad, a Kayhan writer and senior researcher and lieutenant of Mr.
Shariatmadari's. The 32-year-old Mr. Fazlinejad is also a lecturer who
addresses Islamic Republic elites on the ideological threats facing the
regime-themes he has expounded on in such books as 'Knights of the
Cultural NATO' and 'The Intellectuals' Secret Army.' While he emphasized
on the phone that his opinions don't necessarily represent those of his
employer, Mr. Fazlinejad's views are typical of those held by a large and
powerful element of the Tehran regime... Given that the Geneva deal is an
interim, six-month arrangement, with a final agreement still to come, Mr.
Fazlinejad suggests that Western leaders must 'take into account that the
supreme leader's support for the negotiations and agreement has been
conditional and by no means absolute. The leader instructed us that if
the rights of the Iranian nation and the principles of the revolution are
respected and the negotiating team stands up to the overbearing demands
of the United States and the global arrogance'-the regime's terms for the
West generally-'then he would support their work.' On the other hand, if
the agreement denies Iran's absolute right to enrich, 'then it is from
our view essentially void.' The Kayhan writer warns against perceiving
any diplomatic agreement over Iran's nuclear program as a first step
toward broader rapprochement between Washington and Tehran. 'The nature
of the opposition of the Islamic revolution with the regime of liberal
democracy is fundamentally philosophical,' Mr. Fazlinejad says. 'It's an
ideological difference. It is not a tactical enmity, or one that has to
do with temporary interests, which can be shifted and the enmity thus
done away with... So in contrast to all the punditry of late in the
international media, which says that these negotiations are a step toward
peace between Iran and the United States-those who take this view are
completely mistaken.' Western leaders, Mr. Fazlinejad says, are also
misreading the meaning of Mr. Rouhani's election in June and his foreign
policy. Pointing to the Iranian president's recent visits with the
families of Iran's 'martyrs,' Mr. Fazlinejad says: 'Notice how hard Mr.
Rouhani's government works to show itself to be loyal to the revolution's
ideological principles.'" http://t.uani.com/1fIXK9X
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