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AFP:
"Eight months after taking office, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani
has suffered his first major political defeat, with the public
overwhelmingly brushing aside appeals to forgo direct government aid. The
455,000-rial ($14) monthly handout scheme, initiated in December 2010 by
Rouhani's predecessor Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, is part of broader economic
reforms aimed at overhauling the country's massive subsidy system. The
reform -- which phases out parts of remaining subsidies on energy, utility
bills and basic food costs -- is forecast in this year's budget to save the
cash-starved government $18 billion. Encouraged by economists as a way of
regulating Iran's economy, which is stretched thin with debilitating
sanctions and mismanagement, the second phase of the plan started Friday
with petrol prices being raised as much as 75 percent. The bid to curb
expenditure under the separate handout scheme, however, appears to have
failed. The Rouhani administration for weeks ran an aggressive media
campaign seeking to persuade the most affluent of Iran's 77-million
population, and some of the middle class, to waive the cash payments... But
on Wednesday it was announced that 73 million people -- 95 percent -- had
asked to receive the money, amounting to a near $1-billion monthly bill.
The low rate of dropouts was mocked in conservative circles, and even
moderates and reformists expressed criticism." http://t.uani.com/1fe9MJE
AP:
"Iran cut a portion of fuel subsidies Friday, nearly doubling some
prices at the pump as part of a second round of cuts delayed since 2012.
The dramatic measure, which went into effect at midnight, will test public
support for moderate President Hassan Rouhani in a nation battered by
inflation and economic sanctions imposed over Iran's contested nuclear
program. Subsidies have kept the cost of gasoline artificially low for
consumers in OPEC-member Iran, and were blamed for making petrol cheaper
than bottled mineral water. The slash aims to release government money for
production and infrastructural projects in order to improve efficiency and
bolster the economy. Under the new pricing scheme, each car on the road
would see its monthly, 60-liter (15.85-gallon) reduced-cost allowance jump
to 7,000 rials (22 cents) per liter from 4,000 rials (12 cents). That works
out to about 83 cents a gallon under the new pricing structure, compared to
45 cents under the former. Every liter after that will cost 10,000 rials
(31 cents), up from 7,000 rials. That's a rise of $1.17 a gallon from 83
cents a gallon. Taxi drivers have a higher monthly ration of 500 liters
(132.09 gallons)." http://t.uani.com/1nMLyWT
Fox News:
"Despite their human rights records, the United Nations has elected
the Islamic Republic of Iran, Cuba, Sudan and several other repressive
regimes to influential committees charged with promoting human rights.
Human rights activists see this as a major setback in their campaign to end
abuse and to create open and healthy societies. The Economic and Social
Council, a U.N. body based in New York, elected Iran to a four-year term on
its Commission on the Status of Women, the world's top intergovernmental
organization dedicated to promoting women's rights. Tehran also won a seat
on the 19-nation Committee on NGOs (non-government organizations), a
position that enables Tehran to champion and silence human rights
organizations, depending on their views. The move prompted U.S. Ambassador
to the U.N. Samantha Power to tweet: 'Yet again #Iran ran unopposed &
was elected to Commission on Status of Women. Given record on women's &
human rights, this is an outrage.'" http://t.uani.com/1lbHdg9
Nuclear Program & Negotiations
Trend: "Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that Iran's
missile program has never been in the negotiation agenda with Group 5+1,
IRNA reported. Speaking with Russian TV network 'Russia Today' on
Wednesday, Lavrov said that Iran's missile program has never been an issue
in the framework of Iran and Group 5+1 negotiation on nuclear program. He
added that Iran's missile program issue in not mentioned in Geneva
agreement between Iran and Group 5+1 last November." http://t.uani.com/1htKKVM
AP: "Iran's foreign minister is urging the West not to miss the
opportunity President Hassan Rouhani poses in talks over the Islamic
Republic's nuclear program. The Twitter account of Foreign Minister
Mohammad Javad Zarif, Iran's chief nuclear negotiator, had a message Friday
saying progress could have been made in negotiations 10 years ago. The
message added: 'Rouhani offers an opportunity that must not be missed: too
much is at stake.' The message referenced a recent profile of Rouhani
written by Nobel Peace Prize laureate Mohamed ElBaradei for Time magazine's
100 Most Influential People list." http://t.uani.com/1jLixa7
Sanctions
Enforcement & Impact
The National: "When Alireza Amoei's new car finally arrived, a year
late, it was missing a few parts. There was no spare tyre and no stereo. He
complained to the company from which he ordered his Peugeot 206, Iran
Khodro, the largest automobile manufacturer in the Middle East. After much
back and forth, he was told last month the parts were not available. 'The
only excuse for such a long delay in delivery was lack of parts due to
sanctions,' said the 41-year-old physician, as he refilled in a Tehran
petrol station. Iran once had a vibrant car culture, but years of
international sanctions have had a devastating effect on the local
automobile industry. Production has dropped by more than half since 2011 -
down to 626,110 vehicles in 2013 compared to 1.6 million two years
earlier... 'When Peugeot first left, we froze. It took us a year to produce
our first Iranian part,' said Farzad Mansouri, the head of the assembly
line of the Peugeot 206. 'It was not easy. It was a disaster for us. But
now we are completely independent.'" http://t.uani.com/QLricL
Human Rights
Reuters: "Iran on Thursday rejected U.S. criticism of its election to
the United Nations' committee on non-governmental organizations (NGOs),
saying Washington's rebuke came from 'baseless accusations' and violated
the spirit of cooperation needed at the world body. U.S. Ambassador
Samantha Power on Wednesday said, 'The unopposed candidacy of Iran, where
authorities regularly detain human rights defenders, subjecting many to
torture, abuse, and violations of due process, is a particularly troubling
outcome.' Hamid Babaei, spokesman for Iran's U.N. mission in New York,
vehemently rejected Power's remarks. 'Iran categorically rejects baseless
accusations raised in the statement of (Power) regarding status of human
rights and civil liberties in the Islamic Republic of Iran and find these
assertions both unconstructive, obstructive and against the spirit of
cooperation between sovereign member states,' he said." http://t.uani.com/QLhcJ4
ICHRI: "A film clip shown on Iran's state television denying the
well-documented brutal assault on political prisoners at Evin Prison Ward
350 by security guards on April 17, 2014 has been described as 'shameless'
by the brother of one of the prisoners. The film, broadcast a few days
after the attack, claims that no violence was used against the inmates, in
direct contradiction to eyewitness accounts detailing grievous injuries to
the prisoners. Ahmad Reza Haeri, the brother of Saeed Haeri, a human rights
activist imprisoned at Ward 350, told the International Campaign for Human
Rights in Iran that the families of the political prisoners plan to file an
official protest with the supervisory board of the state radio and
television organization, the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB).
'This film has caused tremendous distress among the relatives of the
political prisoners,' Ahmad said." http://t.uani.com/1lbGpHS
ICHRI: "In a public letter to President Hassan Rouhani, 421 civil and
political activists in Iran called on him to investigate the assault on
political prisoners in Evin Prison's Ward 350, which has now been called
'Black Thursday.' 'As members of civil society and political activists, we
request that you take a stand against tyranny and injustice against the
children of this land within the framework of the law and with the powers
you have received by the vote of the people and make an effort to empathize
with the victims of these incidents,' they wrote in the letter. The letter
notes that the president is constitutionally obligated to protect citizens'
rights. 'You can instruct the Supreme National Security Council [headed by
Rouhani] to form a special truth commission to investigate the April 17
incidents in Evin,' the letter stated. 'By doing so you would be responding
to the public's demands and removing a tumor before it grows and becomes
deadly,' it added." http://t.uani.com/1lbGA66
Domestic Politics
Trend: "In order to support its struggling auto industry, Iran has
decided on a new move and will start implementing it starting from today.
The country's central bank will allow the auto industry companies to
purchase foreign currency by an official rate of 25,500 rials per each USD,
the official IRNA news agency reported on April 24. Iranian carmakers,
while manufacturing the cars inside Iran, still need to import certain raw
materials from other countries, which, in most cases, accept only USD. Previously,
the carmakers in Iran had to purchase the foreign currency based on the
free market rate which is significantly higher than official rate. For
example, the USD was sold for 33,290 rials at Iran's free market on April
24." http://t.uani.com/1mH392r
Opinion &
Analysis
Amos Yadlin in YnetNews: "Those of us who only read the headlines on
news websites this week might have received the impression that Iran is
prepared to make significant concessions in regards to its nuclear plan,
and that the Iranian military nuclear program crisis may already be behind
us. One headline announced that 'Iran has neutralized half of its stockpile
of higher-enriched uranium.' Another headline reported that the head of the
Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, Ali Salehi, declared that Iran and the
world powers had reached an agreement on the technical changes which would
reduce the production of the heavy water reactor in Arak - a reactor which
would not be able to produce plutonium for a nuclear weapon after being completed.
Iran is allegedly showing willingness to compromise on the two routes
leading to the development of a nuclear weapon: The uranium enrichment
route and the plutonium production route. This is precisely the message
Tehran is hoping to assimilate in the West. But a look through the fine
print in the published reports and a better understanding of the entire
Iranian nuclear program lead to a completely different picture. Cutting the
stockpile, for example, is not an Iranian concession but simply an implementation
of the Iranian commitment as part of the interim agreement signed in
November 2013. Tehran agreed to cut its stockpile of 20% enriched uranium,
which is not even sufficient for one bomb, in order to preserve the
low-level stockpile of the element (3.5%) which is sufficient for at least
six bombs. This is the Iranian strategy in the negotiations with the world
powers: To preserve and maximize their achievements and to minimize the
concessions. So instead of accepting the powers' demand to alter the Arak
reactor so that it would not be able to produce fissile material for a
bomb, Iran is offering technical changes which will reduce the production
ability, but will not abolish it. Such technical changes are reversible in
case of an Iranian decision to violate the agreement. Iran is trying to
portray itself as a country prepared to make fundamental concessions, but
at the same time it is preserving the core abilities in both routes it is
developing for a nuclear weapon. The American suggestion is to focus on the
demand for a tight and unprecedented system of inspection of the Iranian
nuclear program as part of a final agreement. This demand is necessary in
order to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon in the future, but
it is insufficient. The international inspection systems are not perfect
and have always known to fail. They already failed in the past to discover
on time the efforts made by Iraq, Libya, North Korea, Syria and Iran to
secretly develop a military nuclear program. These systems can cease to
exist in case of a unilateral Iranian decision - like what happened with
North Korea. There is a need, therefore, to agree on parameters which will
keep Iran away from the bomb by extending the time required to develop a
nuclear weapon if it decides to expel the inspectors or quits the
Non-Proliferation Treaty. As part of this demand, the powers must demand
that Iran will dissolve most of the centrifuges and leave a symbolic number
of non-advanced centrifuges. They must demand that the uranium enrichment
stockpile in Iran will be limited to a low level and symbolic amount (less
than the amount required for one bomb). They must also demand the
dismantlement of the enrichment site inside a mountain near Qom, which aims
to guarantee a protected site immune to a quick breakthrough towards a
bomb. They must demand that the Arak reactor will be altered so that it
would not be used for military purposes and demand an answer to the open
questions regarding the military dimensions of the Iranian nuclear program.
They must also determine that the agreement will be approved by the
Security Council and will be valid for many years - a period which will
guarantee a real change in the Iranian strategic conduct." http://t.uani.com/1mLua7m
Ilan Berman in WT: "In the current debate over the Iranian bomb, the
White House is staying quiet about its concerns over the regime's progress
on missile development. It's the dog that isn't barking. Since last Fall,
Washington and European capitals have been embroiled in a protracted bout
of nuclear diplomacy with Iran. In Washington, as elsewhere, hopes still
run high that this effort will help curb the threat posed by Tehran's
atomic ambitions. To do so, however, any diplomatic deal will need not only
to limit Iran's capability to make nuclear weapons, but also its ability to
deliver them. On that score, Tehran is most definitely not cooperating with
the West. On April 16, Iranian Defense Minister Hossein Dehghan publicly
ruled out the possibility that his government would ever put its
ballistic-missile arsenal on the global negotiating table. 'Iran's missiles
are not up for discussion under any circumstances,' Mr. Dehghan told the
country's official Fars news agency. 'Iran's missiles are only our concern
... . We don't accept any intervention from anybody on this issue.' Mr.
Dehghan's comments were a broadside aimed squarely at the U.S. State
Department, which had tentatively raised the issue of delivery systems in
its recent diplomatic discussions with Tehran. Washington's concerns are
certainly well-placed. In recent years, in tandem with its nuclear
advances, the Islamic republic has carried out significant, sustained work
on its ballistic-missile arsenal. According to U.S. intelligence
assessments, Iran is already the most formidable missile power in the
Middle East, and ballistic missiles would be its delivery system of choice
if it were to field a nuclear weapon. The mainstay of Iran's arsenal is the
Shahab-3, a medium-range missile unveiled publicly more than a decade ago. When
inducted into service, the Shahab-3 was a liquid-fuel missile with an
estimated range of about 750 miles. However, in recent years, the Iranian
regime has expanded the range, accuracy and payload of the Shahab and its
variants. Today, the Shahab class of missiles is estimated to be
nuclear-capable and have a range of between 900 and 1,200 miles - putting
all of Israel, the north of India and parts of Eastern Europe within
striking distance of the Islamic republic. These capabilities are just part
of the larger picture. In 2005, Iran became the first space-faring nation
in the Muslim world when it successfully launched a surveillance satellite
into orbit from the missile base in Plesetsk, Russia. Since then, the
Iranian regime has racked up a number of additional successful launches,
demonstrating that it has a sustained - and successful - space program.
While these efforts appear to be civilian in nature, the potential military
applications can't be ignored. The same rocket booster used to place a payload
into low-earth orbit can be married to a two-stage ballistic missile to
create one of intercontinental range. Iran, in other words, is building the
capability to transition rapidly from being a regional missile power to
being a global one with the capability to hold at risk Western Europe - and
beyond. Moreover, it could do so very, very soon. Last year, a study of
global missile threats by the National Air and Space Intelligence Center
assessed that Iran 'could develop and test an ICBM capable of reaching the
United States by 2015.' All this means that ballistic missiles need to be
part of any serious discussion about limiting Iran's strategic
capabilities. That's precisely the conversation Iranian officials are
hoping to avoid, because they understand full well that their country's
global status is inexorably linked not only to its nuclear capabilities,
but also to maintaining the means to deliver them." http://t.uani.com/1htJHoV
Yaakov Amidror in JPost: "Ostensibly, official US policy on Iran's
nuclear program is clear: The US will not allow Iran to produce a nuclear
bomb. Moreover, US President Barack Obama has said that, for this purpose,
'all options are on the table' - implying a military option as well. In
addition, according to many reports in American newspapers, Obama has
ordered the development of diversified US military capabilities with which
to attack Iranian nuclear facilities, far beyond what existed in the
previous administration - providing further evidence of the president's
seriousness. But many people do not understand the meaning behind the vague
statement, 'We will not allow Iran to manufacture a nuclear bomb.' When
will this happen? Who will decide that this is the time for action? How?
What does 'manufacture' mean? Robert Einhorn seeks to answer these
questions in a 56-page comprehensive paper, just published by the Brookings
Institution, titled 'Preventing a Nuclear-Armed Iran: Requirements for a
Comprehensive Nuclear Agreement.' This paper cannot be ignored, since until
a few months ago Einhorn was one of the top officials on Iran in the Obama
administration, and he is very knowledgeable on the topic. (Einhorn was the
secretary of state's special adviser for nonproliferation and arms control.
During the Clinton administration, he was assistant secretary for
nonproliferation.) In addition to analyzing Iran's intentions toward
nuclear weapons and discussing the principal issues in the negotiations,
Einhorn outlines the key requirements for an acceptable comprehensive
agreement that, in his view, 'would prevent Iran from having a rapid
nuclear breakout capability and deter a future Iranian decision to build
nuclear weapons.' According to Einhorn, the essence of an agreement between
Iran and the P5+1 could be as follows: Iran will retain the capability to
produce the material necessary for a bomb (full fuel cycle), so
theoretically it will be able to produce a bomb should it decide to do so.
But the agreement that the US should try to reach will include the most
sophisticated and exacting controls and monitoring, which will immediately
spot any breakthrough in Iran's nuclear program. The capability that Iran
will be permitted under the agreement will be greatly reduced compared with
its current capability (for example, far fewer centrifuges), so that from
the moment of the breach and its identification, the US will have enough
time to respond with very severe sanctions, and with force too, if
necessary. In order to dissuade the Iranians from advancing toward a bomb,
it will be made clear to them by various means that Iran will pay a heavy
price for violating the agreement, and that the US will respond quickly in
the event of a violation to prevent any possibility of the Iranians reaping
the rewards of the violation. Einhorn proposes a new world of 'deterrence'
- not against the use of nuclear weapons, but against producing nuclear
weapons. This deterrence is needed because this approach would permit the
Iranians to keep the capability to produce a nuclear weapon. The West (and
Israel) will have to live with this Iranian production capability, because
it is a fact that, Einhorn says, cannot be change. In short, violating the
agreement will be cause for penalizing Iran, not the fact that Iran will
have the capability to produce a nuclear weapon. In my opinion, Israel
should oppose such an agreement for three reasons." http://t.uani.com/1ntKwS2
UN Watch: "The United Nations today elected the Islamic Republic of
Iran and more than a dozen other repressive regimes to top committees
charged with protecting women's rights and with overseeing the work of
human rights organizations, according to an exclusive report by UN Watch, a
non-governmental Geneva-based human rights group. Human rights activists
are expressing outrage. 'Today is a black day for human rights,' said
Hillel Neuer, executive director of UN Watch. 'By empowering the
perpetrators over the victims, the UN harms the cause of human rights,
betrays its founding principles, and undermines its own credibility.'
'Civil society loses as repressive states win election,' said the
International Service for Human Rights (ISHR). Despite the sharp
condemnation of Iran's human rights record by UN chief Ban Ki-moon -- who
recently reported how women in Iran are 'subject to discrimination,
entrenched both in law and in practice' and how 'women's rights activists
continue to face arrest and persecution' -- the UN Economic and
Social Council (ECOSOC) in New York today elected Iran to a four-year term
on its 45-nation Commission on the Status of Women, the principal
intergovernmental body dedicated to protecting women's rights. Equitorial
Guinea was among other dictatorships also named to the global gender
equality panel. Meanwhile, in a separate vote today, the UN additionally
rewarded Iran by making the regime a member of its powerful 19-nation
Committee on NGOs, a coveted position because it allows governments to
silence criticism by acting as the gatekeeper and overseer of all human
rights groups that seek to work inside the world body. Other egregious human
rights abusers elected to the influential panel include Azerbaijan, China,
Cuba, slave-holding Mauritania, Russia, and Sudan, whose leader, President
Omar al-Bashir, is wanted by the ICC for genocide. All were deemed 'not
free' in the 2014 annual survey by Freedom House. Burundi, Guinea,
Nicaragua, Pakistan, Turkey, Venezuela, flagged as problematic and only
'partly free' by Freedom House, were also elected." http://t.uani.com/PA7loy
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