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Sadly,
There's Nothing the U.S. Can Do to Save Iraq
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Since the fall of Mosul to the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS)
earlier this month, an idea that almost no one in his right mind was
publicly advocating a few short weeks ago is steadily gaining currency
among American politicians and pundits — that the United States should,
in some capacity or another, go to war in Iraq. A few words of advice to
those who are jumping on the bandwagon:
First, understand that the United States didn't start this fire and
can't put it out. The sectarian conflict now raging between Muslims in
the heart of the Arab world was primed to erupt by decades of brutal
minoritarian rule in both Syria (Alawites over majority Sunnis) and Iraq
(Sunnis over majority Shiites), and by over a millennium of religious
antagonism before that. The 2003 U.S.-led invasion of Iraq overturned an
applecart that was bound to falter during the 2011 Arab Spring revolts
anyway. The Bush and Obama administrations both could have done more to
ensure that the quasi-democratic system they left behind was capable of
weathering the storm, but their errors are academic now. Like the
Syrians, the Iraqis will have to fight it out.
Second, don't believe the hype about ISIS taking Baghdad. The group
has managed to gain control of most areas where Iraq's 15-20% Sunni Arab
minority predominates because locals acquiesced in its advance and
garrisoned soldiers had little stomach for fighting in such a hostile
environment. While the confessionally mixed Iraqi capital may be plagued
by jihadist terrorism in the months ahead, the number of combatants
Iraq's Shiite majority can throw into the city's defence dwarfs the
number that ISIS can field, even if large numbers of Iraqi Sunnis unite
under its banner and a steady stream of foreign jihadis continues to join
its ranks. Do the math. Baghdad won't fall.
Third, recognize that the Iranians will be delighted if the U.S. Air
Force starts pounding ISIS, a problem they created by encouraging the
excesses of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and propping up the
embattled regime of President Bashar Al-Assad in Syria (ISIS, as its name
suggests, is a two-headed monster). Prospective American intervention
will be less about defending Baghdad than about helping Iranian-backed
government forces and Shiite militias seize back the Sunni heartland of
northwest Iraq. It's going to be a long, bloody campaign, certain to
involve massive civilian casualties. The Iranians would love for the
Obama administration to share the costs and take some of the heat for the
horrific measures that will be necessary to cleanse Iraq of ISIS.
Fourth, consider also that U.S. intervention could be a blessing for
Al-Qaeda senior leaders in Pakistan, who have always been more interested
in killing Westerners than Shiites or Alawites (one reason why they have
been eclipsed in the Syria-Iraq theatre). Al-Qaeda leader Ayman
al-Zawahiri would have preferred that the many hundreds of European
Muslims now fighting in Syria and Iraq had stayed home and plotted
attacks in their countries of origin. A U.S.-led air campaign against
ISIS would weaken Al-Qaeda's main competitor for the loyalties of Sunni
jihadists in the region, while giving Zawahiri exactly the narrative
twist he needs to refocus Sunni angst on the West.
Is that thumb still up? Don't get me wrong. I understand the
temptation to jump in and kill terrorists when the opportunity presents
itself. With Iran and various rival Sunni states financing and equipping
opposing Islamists to do their dirty work (you don't bring a knife to a
gunfight), the Syria-Iraq theatre is an extraordinarily target-rich
environment. But as long as they're busy killing each other, the United
States should leave bad enough alone.
Gary C. Gambill is a Shilman-Ginsburg fellow at the
Philadelphia-based Middle East Forum.
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