The Long War Journal (Site-Wide) |
Posted: 17 Nov 2014 08:14 AM PST
In a video released on
Nov. 16 that showed the execution of Syrian soldiers and the severed head of
an American, the Islamic State highlighted the oaths of allegiance that
jihadists from several countries swore to Abu Bakr al Baghdadi last week.
Editor's note: A version of this article was originally published at The Daily Beast. Abu Bakr al Baghdadi's Islamic State, the al Qaeda offshoot that controls large portions of Iraq and Syria, has claimed to have beheaded yet another Western hostage, along with more than a dozen captured Syrian soldiers. In a newly-released video, a henchman for the group stands over what appears to be the severed head of Peter Kassig, a former US Army Ranger turned aid worker who was kidnapped in Syria in late 2013.
From the Islamic State's
perspective, such videos serve multiple purposes. They are meant to
intimidate the organization's enemies in the West and elsewhere, show
defiance in the face of opposition, and to convince other jihadists that
Baghdadi's state is the strong horse. Al Qaeda, the Islamic State's rival,
long ago determined that graphic beheading videos do more harm than good for
the jihadists' cause, as they turn off more prospective supporters than they
earn. But the Islamic State has clearly come to the opposite conclusion,
cornering the market on savagery.
There is no doubt that the Islamic
State's ranks have swelled over the past year. Young recruits, in particular,
have been attracted to the organization's brazen violence. But Baghdadi has
had much less success in attracting the allegiance of established jihadist
organizations, many of which remain openly loyal to al Qaeda.
At first blush, Baghdadi had a big
day on Nov. 10. Jihadists from Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Saudi Arabia, and Yemen
all swore allegiance to Baghdadi in what was intended to be a show of global
support for the self-appointed caliph. The Islamic State has been attempting
to win the support of jihadists at the expense of al Qaeda, so the messages
were widely heralded by Baghdadi's boosters. Indeed, the group highlighted
the oaths of allegiance in today's beheading video.
Baghdadi accepted the various
loyalty oaths three days later in an audio message released on Nov. 13. The
Islamic State leader's speech served multiple purposes. It demonstrated that
he was alive, contradicting thinly-sourced claims that he had been killed in
airstrikes earlier in the month. And it gave Baghdadi the opportunity to
praise his new minions, blessing them as his official representatives.
Baghdadi offered "glad
tidings" as he trumpeted "the expansion of the Islamic State to new
lands, to the lands of al Haramain [meaning Saudi Arabia] and Yemen, and to
Egypt, Libya and Algeria." Baghdadi accepted "the bayat (oath of
allegiance) from those who gave us bayat in those lands" and pronounced
"the nullification" of all other jihadist "groups
therein." He also announced the creation of "new wilayah
[provinces] for the Islamic State" in all five countries, adding that
the group would appoint "wali [provincial leaders] for them." All
jihadists in these areas, and indeed all Muslims, must now obey the Islamic
State's official representatives, according to Baghdadi and his supporters.
Of course, the Islamic State
doesn't really have provinces stretching from North Africa through the heart
of Arabia. But how strong is Baghdadi's network in all five countries? The
short answer is: We don't really know.
In three of the five
countries--Libya, Saudi Arabia, and Yemen--the jihadists who swore loyalty
oaths to Baghdadi were anonymous. And they don't represent any
well-established terrorist organizations either.
For instance, the Islamic State
has failed, thus far, to garner the allegiance of Ansar al Sharia Libya,
which is notorious for its role in the Sept. 11, 2012, terrorist attacks in
Benghazi and remains one of the most powerful jihadist organizations in
eastern Libya. None of Ansar al Sharia's allies in the Benghazi
Revolutionaries Shura Council, the Islamist coalition fighting General
Khalifa Haftar's forces for control of territory, pledged allegiance to
Baghdadi. The Islamic State has supporters in Libya, particularly among the
jihadist youth. But other groups are still, by all outward appearances, more
entrenched.
Similarly, the messages from Saudi
Arabia and Yemen were attributed generically to the "mujahideen" in
both countries. Baghdadi and his supporters have attempted, and failed, to
woo al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) on multiple occasions.
AQAP, which is headquartered in
Yemen, is the strongest jihadist group in the heart of Arabia. Some have
assumed that the only person keeping AQAP loyal to al Qaeda emir Ayman al
Zawahiri is Nasir al Wuhayshi, a protégé of Osama bin Laden who serves as
both AQAP's leader and as al Qaeda's global general manager.
There is no basis for this assumption. There are al Qaeda loyalists
throughout AQAP's chain-of-command.
A few AQAP ideologues have been
quite vocal in their support for the Islamic State, but there was an
interesting twist in this part of the story this past week.
Mamoon Hatem has been the Islamic
State's most zealous supporter within AQAP. Hatem frequently uses his Twitter
feed, which has been suspended multiple times, to sing the Islamic State's
praises. Hatem encouraged Baghdadi to proclaim himself the new caliph even
before the Islamic State's caliphate announcement in late June. Before this
past week, it was reasonable to assume that Hatem may break away from AQAP to
form his own branch of the Islamic State.
That is still a possibility.
Curiously, however, Hatem refused to endorse the group of unknown
"mujahideen" in Yemen who swore allegiance to Baghdadi on Nov. 10.
In a series of more than 20 tweets, Hatem admitted that he tried to get AQAP
to switch allegiances from Zawahiri to Baghdadi. But Hatem explained that he
failed for a number of reasons. And he said that the pro-Islamic State
message out of Yemen would only exacerbate the many difficulties AQAP
currently faces inside the country. This was no time to jump ship, Hatem
argued, given that AQAP is hunted by the US while also embroiled in a vicious
fight against the Houthis, Shiite rebels who have barnstormed throughout the
country.
Hatem said he still wants the
Islamic State to expand the territory under its control, including to parts
of the Arabian Peninsula. But he doesn't want Baghdadi to do so in a way that
further divides the jihadists. Hatem said the men loyal to Baghdadi inside
Yemen include "students," but offered few other details. Hatem's
tweets indicate that, once again, the Islamic State is attracting the
jihadist youth while failing to secure the loyalty of more seasoned fighters.
As a result, we know next to
nothing about the jihadists in Saudi Arabia and Yemen who now claim to take
orders from Baghdadi. The Islamic State may have cadres of fighters in both
countries, but no one can publicly identify them at this point and there is
no reason to believe they are nearly as strong as al Qaeda.
We do know something about the
Islamic State's adherents in Algeria, as they first swore allegiance to
Baghdadi well before their announcement on Nov. 10. They are veteran
jihadists who have defected from al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). When
they first came out in support of Baghdadi earlier this year, they identified
themselves as AQIM's "central division," a little-known faction
within AQIM. They now call themselves Jund al Khalifa, a name that is
intended to explicitly connect them to Baghdadi's caliphate. Jund al Khalifa
has already beheaded a French hostage in service of the Islamic State's
cause, but there is no way of telling how many fighters are under its
control.
The announcement out of Egypt was
the most significant, as it came from a
faction of Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis (ABM), otherwise known as
Ansar Jerusalem. No jihadist group in Egypt is more prolific than ABM, which
has been responsible for dozens of attacks against members of the Egyptian
military and security services, Sinai tribesmen, Israelis, and others. Oddly,
however, the ABM jihadist who pledged to obey Baghdadi was not identified in
his message. Neither his alias, nor his role within ABM, was given. Credible
accounts, including one by The New York Times,
point to divisions within ABM. The Sinai faction of ABM has been itching to
join the Islamic State since earlier this year, but their Nile Valley
counterparts remain loyal to al Qaeda. Thus, at least part of ABM remains in
al Qaeda's corner.
This is not to suggest that the
Islamic State's gains in the Sinai should be dismissed. It is likely that
Baghdadi has officially gained the allegiance of a number of fighters. The
Islamic State's influence in the Sinai has long been clear. Both Egyptian
officials and ABM leaders have said that the group has been working with the
Sinai jihadists for months, thereby increasing their operational capacity.
And a video
released on Nov. 14 portrays ABM as the Islamic State's new
province in the Sinai.
In the days and weeks that follow,
we will likely learn more about the jihadists who now represent the Islamic
State in Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Saudi Arabia, and Yemen. Baghdadi emphasized
in his message on Nov. 13 that his organization now has provinces in each of
these five countries. And because his caliphate has spread into those
nations, Baghdadi argues, existing jihadist organizations have been
nullified.
The logical implication of
Baghdadi's argument is that the official branches of al Qaeda--such as AQAP
in Saudi Arabia and Yemen, as well as AQIM in Algeria and Libya--are now
illegitimate if they do not submit to the caliphate's claimed authority. This
makes it incumbent upon the Islamic State's leadership to demonstrate that
their network's presence in these nations is meaningful, and goes beyond
audio messages from unknown figures.
The Islamic State's international
network is real. It remains to be seen just how strong it really is. With
more videos released like today's, young jihadists will continue to flock to
Baghdadi's cause. While a smattering of established jihadists around the
globe have backed Baghdadi, the Islamic State's base of support is found in
new recruits. That is, Baghdadi's followers are predominately hotheads, young
men and women who are emboldened by horrific beheadings.
|
No comments:
Post a Comment