Eye on Iran: Deadline for Iran Nuclear Accord in Doubt

Join UANI           Top Stories WSJ: "Global powers and Iran signaled they will extend their diplomacy beyond a Nov. 24 deadline if necessary, as three days of talks aimed at curbing Tehran's nuclear program failed to win any major breakthroughs... Many said the negative fallout from a diplomatic failure could be too great for a region already facing rising instability in countries ranging from Syria to Yemen... Seeking an extension would pose numerous political and diplomatic challenges, diplomats involved in the talks said. Reaching an agreement on balancing freezes in Iran's nuclear program with economic incentives during the additional diplomacy could prove nearly as complicated as forging a final deal, they said. Also, the capturing of the U.S. Senate by the Republican Party last week could limit the White House's diplomatic flexibility... Some participants said they believed to reach agreement on an extension, the parties will need to establish at least the broad parameters of an agreement to get political support at home. 'There has to be something on paper,' said a senior Arab official involved in the talks." http://t.uani.com/1GLEKn9 Politico: "Two weeks before a crucial diplomatic deadline, newly victorious Republicans in Congress are plotting to derail one of Barack Obama's few remaining chances for a second-term policy legacy: a nuclear deal with Iran. The Obama administration's interim agreement with Tehran expires on Nov. 24. But Senate Republicans don't plan to wait until they take power in January to rattle the nuclear talks. On Thursday, a day after returning to Washington, they will seek a vote on legislation requiring that Congress approve any deal. Democrats, who still control the Senate, are likely to quash the move. But it's an early illustration of Republican plans to confound the president's nuclear diplomacy, which the GOP sees as dangerously weak toward Tehran's anti-American Islamic regime... Over the weekend, Secretary of State John Kerry and other U.S. officials met with Iranian officials in Oman. Their goal is to strike a long-term deal lifting sanctions in return for restrictions that would prevent Tehran from easily building an atomic bomb. But the Oman session seemed to achieve little; a planned press conference with the participants was canceled. 'As best I can tell, [there was] no progress,' said Gary Samore, a former Obama White House aide who handled the Iranian nuclear portfolio and is now president of United Against a Nuclear Iran... Either way, a Republican Congress will have its say come January. 'I want to start [the Iran] discussion Thursday, and hopefully we'll bring the bill up,' said Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina. 'But in the event we do not, I hope Sen. McConnell will make sanctions and the [Iran Nuclear Negotiations Act] must-dos in the new Congress.' Introduced in July, the Iran Nuclear Negotiations Act would require an up-or-down vote by Congress on any final agreement with Iran." http://t.uani.com/1xMsyMK Reuters: "Khazali is the head of a militia called Asaib Ahl al-Haq that is backed by Iran. Thanks to his position he is one of the most feared and respected militia leaders in Iraq, and one of Iran's most important representatives in the country. His militia is one of three small Iraqi Shi'ite armies, all backed by Iran, which together have become the most powerful military force in Iraq since the collapse of the national army in June. Alongside Asaib Ahl al-Haq, there are the Badr Brigades, formed in the 1980s during the Iran-Iraq War, and the younger and more secretive Kataib Hezbollah. The three militias have been instrumental in battling Islamic State (IS), the extremist movement from Islam's rival Sunni sect. The militias, and the men who run them, are key to Iran's power and influence inside neighboring Iraq... The danger, Iraqi officials say, is that Iran's deep influence will perpetuate sectarian conflict in Iraq. Many Iraqi Sunnis complain that Maliki, who was Iraq's leader until he was forced out in August, was beholden to Tehran and prevented Sunnis from getting greater political power. Maliki has denied sidelining Sunnis. Former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi, a secular Shi'ite who left office in 2005, told Reuters that 'Iran is interfering in Iraq. Foreign forces are not welcome here. And militias controlled by foreign powers are not welcome also.'" http://t.uani.com/10VNSEu     Nuclear Program & Negotiations LAT: "Russia signed a nuclear deal with Iran on Tuesday that prompted anxiety in the West because it appeared to open the way for Tehran to potentially supply domestically produced fuel for its own nuclear reactors. Officials of Rosatom, the Russian state nuclear company, said they had agreed to build two more reactor units at the Russian-built nuclear power plant at Bushehr, Iran. In a separate agreement, the two countries said they might later build two more units at Bushehr and four more elsewhere in the country... Russia would supply the fuel for the reactors, as it does for the existing reactors. But Rosatom raised concern by adding, in its announcement, that it intended to discuss with Tehran 'the feasibility of fabricating fuel rods in Iran, which will be used at these power units.' Although fuel rods are not components in weapons, the fabrication process could undermine the decade-old international effort to prevent Iran from building a nuclear infrastructure and someday gaining the capacity to build a bomb." http://t.uani.com/1xsNUzq NYT: "The agreement signed with Iran on Tuesday envisions sharing some reactor technology with Iran. The two new reactors, and possibly two more at Bushehr, would be imported from Russia, but after that, further reactors would be built in Iran with Russian assistance, according to a Rosatom statement. All would use Russian fuel, even the Iranian-built ones." http://t.uani.com/1ubwKqs Free Beacon: "A leading liberal think tank in Washington, D.C., has begun enlisting its associates in an 'all-hands-on-deck effort to support' the Obama administration as it seeks to ink a nuclear deal with Iran by the end of the month, according to emails obtained by the Washington Free Beacon. The Truman National Security Project, a nonprofit think tank with ties to the administration, is assembling a 'crack team of writers' to flood national and local media outlets with articles supporting the White House's efforts before the details of a final nuclear deal have even emerged, according to internal emails sent by the organization to its listserv. 'Our community absolutely must step up and not cede the public narrative to neocon hawks that would send our country to war just to screw the president,' Graham F. West, Truman's writing and communications associate, wrote in a recent email to the organization's listserv." http://t.uani.com/1xfQAmv Iraq Crisis AP: "The vengeance that Iraq's Shiite militias mete out as they fight the Islamic State group can be just as brutal as that of their sworn sectarian enemies. In a grisly video recently posted online, a Shiite fighter shouts the name of a revered imam in victory as he poses beside decapitated bodies. Another militiaman sits nearby, grinning as he maims a corpse... The Shiite militias who have answered the call-to-arms by the government to fight the Islamic State group are growing more brutal, stoked by a desire for revenge against the Sunni extremists who have butchered Shiites who fall into their hands. That vigilantism is posing a challenge for the Shiite-led government in Baghdad, where authorities have been embarrassed by international criticism of the militias and are worried about militiamen getting out of control. Sunnis whom the government is trying to win over accuse the militias of atrocities against their community, and there are concerns over the militias' links to Iran and Lebanon's Shiite Hezbollah guerrilla group." http://t.uani.com/1uk4ykN Human Rights AP: "Iranian Nobel Peace laureate Shirin Ebadi said Iran's human rights situation has not improved despite President Hassan Rouhani's promises of change. She urged the U.N. General Assembly to approve a resolution criticizing the country's abuses. In an interview with the Associated Press on Tuesday, Ebadi said Iran's rights record remains as bad as it was under hard-liner Mahmoud Ahmadinejad - and in some cases, it is worse. She said the difference is that Ahmadinejad supported severe limitations on human rights while Rouhani has vowed to ease restrictions on freedom of expression and eliminate discrimination against women and minorities. But Rouhani 'can't do much' amid stiff resistance from hard-liners in the government, Ebadi said. 'This is why many journalists, many well-known feminists, many students and many members of civil society are in prison now,' she said. She also pointed to an increase in executions, averaging three a day. While some are criminals, she said, a number are political prisoners and prisoners of conscience." http://t.uani.com/11hE74q Reuters: "A senior Iranian judiciary official has dismissed reports that a U.S.-Iranian journalist being held in Tehran will soon be released, saying his case was still under investigation, Tasnim news agency reported on Tuesday. The United States and human rights organisations have called on Iran to release The Washington Post journalist Jason Rezaian, who was detained on July 22 and is being held without charge. He has worked for the Post in Tehran since 2012. The secretary general of Iran's High Council for Human Rights, Mohammad Javad Larijani, told the Euronews TV channel last week that Rezaian could be released 'in less than a month'. But Iran's deputy judiciary chief, Hadi Sadeghi, said his case was still at preliminary stages. 'Rezaian's case is still under investigation, which can take more than a month. Nothing definite can be said about his case,' Sadeghi told Tasnim." http://t.uani.com/1wT4B8e AFP: "Iran's judiciary said Tuesday an Iranian-British woman arrested in June after trying to attend a men's volleyball match was being held for security reasons and over 'links with foreigners'. Ghoncheh Ghavami's lawyer said earlier this month that the 25-year-old law graduate from London had been sentenced at the start of November to a year in prison, but the judiciary on Monday denied any verdict has been reached. The woman was arrested for having 'acted against the security of the country and for links with foreigners', Hadi Sadeghi, deputy chief of the judiciary's cultural affairs department, said Tuesday. He denied the lawyer's account that Ghavami was detained over her presence near the volleyball stadium in Tehran." http://t.uani.com/1wlAfXU Foreign Affairs Al-Monitor: "During a Tehran meeting with Iraqi Vice President Nouri al-Maliki today, Nov. 11, Iran's President Hassan Rouhani expressed concern about the drop in oil prices. 'Today, from one side, extremism, violence and terrorism and from another side, the plot of the reduction in the price of oil are examples of the problems that have been created for the people of the region,' Rouhani said, according to the president's website. He expressed hope that with 'cooperation' these problems could be solved. Rouhani did not explain exactly what this 'plot' was but given that many believe Iran needs oil to be at well above $100 per barrel to maintain its budget, the current price just above $80 per barrel must have Iran concerned. In mid-June, when the Islamic State (IS) took over parts of Northern Iraq, prices were near $115 per barrel." http://t.uani.com/10Zcw7q Opinion & Analysis Ray Takeyh in LAT: "As the nuclear talks between Iran and the great powers unfold, there is much concern that a hawkish Republican Senate would derail the negotiations. But no matter what the new Senate does, the Islamic Republic is unlikely to walk away from the negotiating table. Why? Because while the United States sees nuclear diplomacy as advancing the cause of detente, Iran sees it as yet another shield to hide its advancing of ominous policies. Since the exposure of its illicit nuclear program in 2002, Iran's main intention has been to legitimize its expanding atomic infrastructure. The record shows that Iran's cagey diplomats have gone far in achieving that objective. Although numerous United Nations Security Council resolutions have enjoined Iran to suspend all of its nuclear activities, there is little interest by the great powers in enforcing the injunctions they crafted in the first place. Last year's interim accord - the Joint Plan of Action - not only acknowledged Iran's right to enrich uranium at home but also stipulated that, after a period of time, enrichment capacity could be industrialized. These are impressive accomplishments for a state that not only defies the U.N. Security Council but also thwarts the International Atomic Energy Agency's attempt to gain access to its scientists and sites. So long as Iran stays at the table it can count on further Western indulgences. Iran has also gained much in non-nuclear sectors from its continued participation in the talks. Its dismal human rights record and harsh repression of its citizens are rarely mentioned by the Western chancelleries. A standard practice of America's Cold War summitry was to press the cause of dissidents in all encounters with Soviet representatives. Given fears that Iran's hyper-sensitive mullahs would abjure nuclear compromises should their domestic abuses be highlighted, Western diplomats have been largely silent about Iran's domestic shortcomings. The nuclear talks and the prospects of an accord conveniently shield the Iranian supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and his penal colony from censure and criticism. The Islamic Republic today is an aggressive state on the march in the Middle East. Through its proxies and aid it is propping up the Bashar Assad government in Syria and enabling its genocidal war against its citizens. Iran is the most consequential external actor in Iraq and has been instrumental in pressing its Shiite Muslim allies to reject substantial inclusion of Sunni Muslims in Iraq's governing structure. In the Persian Gulf, Tehran continues to press for eviction of the U.S. presence, appreciating that only America's armada stands in the way of its hegemonic ambitions. Terrorism remains an instrument of Iran's statecraft, particularly against Israel. Yet, there is a reluctance to push back on Iran in the increasingly chaotic Middle East for the fear that such a move would undermine the nuclear talks. All the curiosities of America's policy were on display in a letter reportedly sent recently by President Obama to Khamenei, offering to work with Iran in disarming the militant group Islamic State. Such correspondence misses the point that Iran has already rejected collaboration with the United States on regional affairs and that its leaders have claimed that America created Islamic State as a means of justifying its return to Iraq. In the coming weeks, diplomats will try hard to craft a nuclear agreement with Iran. They may succeed or they may extend the talks beyond their own self-imposed deadline of Nov. 24. In the meantime, they will warn the Iranians that time is running out and various windows are about to slam shut. They will fret about how the Republican-controlled Senate will foreclose diplomacy by pressing its claims and maybe even passing sanctions, that the task at hand will be to keep Iranians at the table and the Senate at bay. All of this misses the point that Iran participates in the talks because doing so serves so many of its interests. And one of those interests may yet be an accord that eases its path toward nuclear empowerment." http://t.uani.com/1tGQD3o Ian Bremmer in Reuters: "Plummeting oil prices - down more than 25 percent since June to three-year lows - should relieve pressure on consumers at the pump. But is it pushing oil-exporting regimes past the breaking point? The answer is no. Despite their reliance on oil revenue, the governments of Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela are not teetering. This is no 'oil Arab Spring,' where cratering prices topple governments, spreading like wildfire from one dependent authoritarian state to another. In fact, the price drop won't even change their stances on the geopolitical issues Washington cares most about. Cheaper oil won't shift Iran's posture in nuclear negotiations. Despite the looming deadline, there is still a huge gulf between the two sides. Iran refuses to eliminate most of its existing stockpile of enriched uranium and centrifuges; Washington insists that any proposal without those concessions would be stillborn. Yet, Iran doesn't feel pressured to cede ground, particularly when Moscow has offered support to Iran if there is no sanctions relief. And Iran's economy has stabilized somewhat: since President Hassan Rouhani took office last year, inflation has dropped from 40 percent to 21 percent. A deal could still happen, but it would be the result of creative diplomacy and deeper compromise on both sides - not oil forcing Iran to capitulate." http://t.uani.com/1v0jari      Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.