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Reuters:
"Hours away from a Monday deadline for completing a new accord to
curb Iran's nuclear program, negotiators planned to extend talks for
another seven months, a Western diplomat said. The British foreign
secretary, Philip Hammond, told reporters that 'some significant
progress' had been made but did not provide details. He confirmed that
the goal was to reach a 'headline' agreement by March 1 and that the
talks would continue through June. The negotiations are to resume next
month. The location for the December talks has yet to be announced, but
over the past month, Secretary of State John Kerry has met with his
Iranian counterpart, Mohammad Javad Zarif, in Muscat, Oman, and in
Vienna... He added that Iran and the powers 'made some significant
progress' in the latest round of talks, which began last Tuesday in the
Austrian capital. Hammond said that there was a clear target to reach a
'headline agreement' of substance within the next three months and
talks would resume next month. It is unclear where next month's talks
will take place, he said, noting that during the extension period,
Tehran will be able to continue to access around $700 million per month
in sanctions relief... No details about the 'substantial progress' were
immediately available. One senior Western diplomat expressed pessimism
about the prospects for an agreement in seven months time. 'It's been
10 years that proposals and ideas have been put forward,' he said on
condition of anonymity. 'There's nothing left. It's essentially a side
issue now. The Iranians are not moving. It is a political
choice.'" http://t.uani.com/1FjfYsM
Reuters:
"World powers are pressing Iran to stop stonewalling a U.N. atomic
bomb investigation as part of a wider nuclear accord, but look likely
to stop short of demanding full disclosure of any secret weapon work by
Tehran to avoid killing an historic deal. Officially, the United States
and its Western allies say it is vital that Iran fully cooperate with a
U.N. nuclear agency investigation if it wants a diplomatic settlement
that would end the sanctions severely hurting its oil-based economy...
A senior U.S. official stressed that the powers had not changed their
position on Iran's past activities during this week's talks: 'We've
always said that any agreement must resolve the issue to our
satisfaction. That has not changed.' Privately, however, some officials
acknowledge that Iran may never be prepared to admit to what they
believe it was guilty of: covertly working in the past to develop the
ability to build a nuclear-armed missile - something it has always
denied. A senior Western official said the six would try to 'be
creative' in finding a formula to satisfy those who want Iran to come
clean about any atomic bomb research and those who say this is simply
unrealistic... Iran for its part has said these 'possible military
dimensions' (PMD) are an issue it will not budge on. 'PMD is out of the
question. It cannot be discussed,' an Iranian official said. Another
Western official said many inside the IAEA and Western governments felt
uneasy about compromising on the issue, but added: 'I believe the PMD
issue is not a deal-breaker, even though it probably should be.'" http://t.uani.com/11Nn8qc
NYT:
"Behind the efforts to close a nuclear deal with Iran this weekend
lies a delicate question that has been little discussed in public: how
to design an agreement to maximize the chances that Western
intelligence agencies would catch any effort to develop an atomic bomb
at a covert site... Unstated is the fear of a more problematic issue,
referred to as 'sneakout.' That describes the risk of a bomb being
produced at an undetected facility deep in the Iranian mountains, or
built from fuel and components obtained from one of the few trading
partners happy to do business with Tehran, like North Korea. To try to
make sneakout more difficult and risky, scientists from the Department
of Energy national laboratories, along with intelligence officers who
can be seen hurrying this weekend through lobbies of Vienna's grand
hotels, have been providing ideas to negotiators and scouring the
drafts of proposed language in the agreement. The goal is to 'make as
airtight as possible' the language that would allow highly intrusive
inspections to track the precursors and parts that feed Iran's uranium complex,
according to one participant in the negotiations... 'From the
beginning, the administration thought a nuclear agreement with Iran
would need elements to deal with the overt program and one to detect
covert facilities,' Gary Samore, Mr. Obama's nuclear adviser during the
first term, said recently... American negotiators want an agreement
that gives inspectors the right to roam the nation widely. http://t.uani.com/11pT18p
Nuclear Program & Negotiations
WSJ:
"Western negotiators said they may offer additional concessions to
Iran to reach an agreement on its nuclear program, as a fourth day of
talks here offered no signs of an imminent breakthrough ahead of a
Monday deadline. Any new inducements by the U.S. and its negotiating
partners would come as the latest in a series of steps scaling back the
West's demands over the past 14 months. Western officials said any
concessions would only come if Tehran demonstrated movement in return.
The shifting position could make it more difficult for President Barack
Obama to sell a nuclear agreement with Iran to a skeptical U.S.
Congress set to be controlled by the Republican Party. 'We are very
clear that we have to get more flexibility from the Iranians. In
return, we're prepared to show some flexibility on our side,' U.K.
Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond said Friday after arriving in Vienna
to take part in the talks. 'But time is short.' http://t.uani.com/1tea6cw
Reuters:
"Iranian officials say they can turn to Beijing and Moscow if
talks in Vienna fail to end Western sanctions, but with oil prices
falling, China's economy slowing and Russia in its own
sanctions-induced slump, Tehran's 'plan B' hardly looks ideal... While
the deadline, already extended in July, could be extended again,
Iranian officials have said they are working on an alternative if the
talks collapse altogether, which would see them look east and north for
diplomatic and economic support... One Western diplomat at the talks
said he thought the impetus for Iran to reach a deal was less intense
now than last year, due to the limited easing of sanctions already
negotiated. He also cited the eagerness of Western companies to end
sanctions and go back to Iran, and European court rulings against some
EU sanctions measures. 'The pressure (on Iran) to go for a deal at all
costs is less than it was 12 months ago,' the diplomat said. 'If
there's no deal, Iran will turn to China and Russia, as well as some
European countries that are prepared to do bilateral business with
Iran.'" http://t.uani.com/1xKk7Ud
AFP:
"An Iranian source told AFP that Tehran is open to having the
nuclear negotiations extended by six months or a year if no real
progress towards an agreement is achieved later Sunday. Such an
extension would be under the terms of an interim accord reached in
Geneva a year ago that traded a temporary freeze on some aspects of
Iran's nuclear activities for limited sanctions relief, the source
said. 'We are still focused on agreeing to a kind of political' understanding
which would not be written but which would allow for negotiators to
fine-tune technical aspects of the agreement later, the source said.
'But if between now and this afternoon or this evening we don't get
there, the solution is we consider an extension of the Geneva accord,'
he said." http://t.uani.com/1yKvjic
AFP:
"Tensions over a possible nuclear deal between Iran and world
powers were on display Sunday outside an atomic facility in Tehran
where a rare protest saw hardliners criticise government negotiators.
While the crowd was small -- about 200, mostly students, gathered at
the entrance to the Tehran Research Reactor -- the event was the first
such officially approved demonstration in months. It coincided with the
penultimate day of talks in Vienna between Iran and the United States
and other leading states about a permanent nuclear deal. 'Nuclear
energy is our absolute right,' and 'Sanctions won't stop us,' read
placards held by protesters, many of them suggesting there should be no
compromise on Iran's disputed atomic activities. They chanted 'Death to
America' while a designated speaker rounded on the conduct of the
year-long negotiations which entered their final 36 hours with a deal
hanging in the balance." http://t.uani.com/1xqFia4
Free Beacon:
"Iran's foreign minister and lead negotiator in nuclear talks is
known to frequently scream and shout at Western diplomats, including
Secretary of State John Kerry, a practice that has caused alarm among
bodyguards stationed outside the negotiating room, according to a
member of the Iranian diplomatic team who spoke to the Farsi-language
press. Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif-who is scheduled to hold
one-on-one talks with Kerry this evening in Vienna-'frequently shouts
at Western diplomats' in such a forceful manner that bodyguards have
hurriedly entered the negotiation room on occasion worried that an
incident might occur, according to one Iranian diplomat involved in
negotiations who spoke anonymously with the Iranian press earlier this
week... The report of Zarif's aggressive behavior is consistent with
previous reports claiming that Iranian negotiators tend to treat their
Western counterparts-particularly the Americans-with scorn. Iranian
diplomat Abbas Araghchi, another member of the negotiating team, is
reported to have said in an interview that during past negotiations in
Geneva, Zarif 'shouted' at Kerry and spoke to him in a way that was
likely 'unprecedented' in the history of U.S. diplomacy. Araghchi went
on to claim that he and Zarif play the roles of 'good cop, bad cop,'
according to the report, also in Farsi. The two often exchange these
roles in a bid to 'baffle the Western diplomats' and keep them uneasy,
the report claims. Araghchi further claimed that Kerry said very little
after being shouted at by Zarif, except for 'one or two very respectful
sentences.'" http://t.uani.com/1C5bMPc
Syria
Conflict
HuffPost:
"A new report blasting Iran for its involvement in the Syrian
civil war is drawing attention in the nation's capital just as U.S.
officials sit down with Iranians in Vienna in a last-ditch effort to
reach a deal on Tehran's nuclear program. The report, titled 'Iran in
Syria,' was released earlier this month by a group of Iranian, Syrian
and Lebanese activists known as Naame Shaam. It relies heavily on
information available in the public domain, particularly Syrian,
Iranian and Western media coverage of the Syrian conflict. It details,
in roughly 100 pages, Iran's deep-rooted influence in the region, and
suggests that Iran, a longtime backer of Syrian President Bashar Assad,
is an 'occupying force' in Syria that would be able to retain control
there using Shiite militias even if Assad falls. The report also
accuses Tehran of permitting the rise of the Islamic State and an
al-Qaeda affiliate called Jabhat al-Nusra, the Sunni extremist groups
in Syria that a U.S.-led coalition is now targeting. And it says Tehran
was complicit in war crimes committed in Syria -- including last year's
chemical weapons attack, which drew international attention and for
which the U.S. blamed Assad... Staffers for the Senate Foreign
Relations Committee, which would be responsible for the legislation
imposing those new sanctions, were briefed on the report earlier this
week, according to sources with knowledge of the briefing." http://t.uani.com/15chDDy
Human Rights
IHR:
"One man was hanged in public in the city of Ghaemshahr (Northern
Iran) today, reported the official Iranian news agency IRNA. The
prisoner was identified as 'R. M.' (32 year old) and sentenced to death
convicted of rape, said the report. Today's public execution was the
sixth so far in November 2014." http://t.uani.com/11pYko9
AFP:
"A British-Iranian woman arrested in Iran after trying to attend a
men's volleyball match has been released on bail pending a decision by
the Court of Appeal, her brother said Sunday. Ghoncheh Ghavami, a
25-year-old law graduate from London, 'was released on bail just a
couple of hours ago and she will stay with my parents' in Tehran, her
brother Iman Ghavami told AFP. However, he said there remained the
possibility that she would be returned to jail, as the Court of Appeal
must still decide on how she must serve out her full sentence. There
was some confusion about her fate after Ghavami's lawyer said on
November 2 that she had been handed a year in prison, only for the
Iranian judiciary to insist that her case had still not been completed.
Her brother said that the verdict was handed down a few days ago, and
she was sentenced to a year as well as two years of what he said were
'travel restrictions'. 'She might go back to prison,' he said in
London." http://t.uani.com/1Fipvyv
HRW:
"Five Iranians are among 35 writers to win the prestigious
Hellman-Hammett award for courage and conviction in the face of
political persecution. Security and judicial authorities in Iran have
continued their crackdown on free expression despite hopes that Hassan
Rouhani's election as president in 2013 would bring greater rights
protections. On September 30, 2014, security authorities arrested
Mohammad Reza Pourshajari, one of the five Iranian recipients of the
Hellman-Hammett award, only five weeks after his release from a
four-year prison sentence. Iran is one of the world's most prolific
jailers of writers, according to Reporters Without Borders. As of July
2014, at least 65 journalists, bloggers, and social media activists
were held in Iran's prisons on various charges related to their speech
or writings. 'These brave Iranians remind us of the vital role that
journalists and writers play, regardless of the risks to their lives
and careers, in exposing or speaking out against oppression,' said Emma
Daly, communications director. 'These prestigious Hellman-Hammett
awards should both raise awareness of the winners' contributions to
upholding free speech, and increase pressure on their governments to
cease repressing this fundamental human right.'" http://t.uani.com/1tpREwM
Opinion &
Analysis
WashPost
Editorial: "The diplomatic betting is that the
negotiations on Iran's nuclear program will end with an agreement to
defer Monday's deadline for a few months. Sanctions on Iran would
remain, as would Tehran's suspension of its most dangerous nuclear
activities. While the result may displease many in Congress and in the
Iranian regime, it would be the best outcome. An extension of the
status quo will prevent Iran from triggering a crisis by ramping up
uranium enrichment. Meanwhile, pressure will grow for it to make
concessions it currently is resisting. That's because even without a
further tightening of sanctions, the collapse of global oil prices will
strain an economy that has reportedly recovered only slightly in the
year since the interim agreement was struck. Iran's budget depends on
an oil price of $140 a barrel, but prices have fallen to below $80, and
many experts believe they will remain there in 2015. In Washington,
delay is also useful because President Obama has failed to convince
congressional leaders of both parties that the settlement terms he has
reportedly offered are sensible. The administration and its allies in
the talks reportedly are prepared to allow Iran to preserve a
substantial part of its nuclear infrastructure - including 4,000 or
more centrifuges. A deal would also be time-limited, meaning all
restrictions on Iran's program would lapse on an agreed date... The
United States should be seeking to weaken and roll back Iran's
influence in the Middle East and to eliminate - not temporarily freeze
- its capacity to build a nuclear arsenal. The agreement the
administration appears to be contemplating could solidify Iran's power
while setting up another confrontation with Congress and allies. Better
to extend the negotiations - and insist on better terms." http://t.uani.com/1y6GSll
UANI Advisory
Board Member Irwin Cotler in the Chicago Sun-Times:
"It has been almost a year since the start of negotiations between
the P5 + 1 countries (USA, UK, France, Russia, China and Germany) and
Iran over the latter's nuclear program. However, it appears unlikely
that an agreement will be reached by the November 24 deadline. Indeed,
the best that can be expected by then, according to at least one
Western official, is 'the outline of a final deal, but probably not the
deal itself.' There are multiple reasons for this outcome. For one, it
is uncertain that Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has
given Iranian negotiators the mandate to make necessary compromises.
Iranian officials have made it clear that they want to massively
increase the number of centrifuges for uranium enrichment, while the P5
+ 1 states want to reduce the 19,000 currently installed to the low
thousands. Perhaps one of the most significant factors involved in the
apparent failure of the talks is the Iranian push for 'a rapid lifting
of all sanctions,' which clashes with the American and European
position that these be gradually lifted if Iran demonstrates compliance
with international agreements. This stands in contrast with the
position of the Republican majority in the United States Congress,
which is willing to impose even more sanctions, which nuclear experts
believe could potentially drive Iran from the negotiating table
entirely. The Obama administration, on the other hand, believes that
the lifting of sanctions is necessary to convince Iran to end its
nuclear ambitions. Any approach to sanctions, however, must be
implemented with a view to achieving Iranian concessions that will have
a measurable effect on the regime's nuclear ambitions, rather than
simply creating another 'calm environment' for increased nuclear activity.
As such, the P5 + 1 must set out the following specific and verifiable
conditions." http://t.uani.com/1vEeGYf
Evan Moore in
NRO: "The U.S.-led international negotiations with
Iran regarding its illicit nuclear program were filled with drama Friday,
as both U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Iranian Foreign Minister
Javad Zarif canceled plans to leave the talks in Vienna. While media
reports speculated that this was because the P5+1 countries and Iran
could be making progress toward an agreement, the greater likelihood is
that the negotiations will be extended yet again, possibly until March.
Though a diplomatic solution would be the preferred way to resolve
Iran's growing nuclear threat, it would be a mistake for the P5+1 to
continue these talks without applying additional nonmilitary pressure
on Tehran. Indeed, the longer the negotiations continue, the more Iran
benefits: economically from additional sanctions relief, and militarily
with more time to advance its nuclear program. It's worth recalling
that the point of these negotiations is to diplomatically cut off
Iran's overt and covert avenues to a nuclear-weapons-making capability.
As Secretary Kerry said at the press conference announcing the deal
last year, 'The purpose of this is very simple: to require Iran to
prove the peaceful nature of its nuclear program and to ensure that it
cannot acquire a nuclear weapon.' However, Iran has shown no signs over
the past year that it is willing to comply with the deal. The only
outcome that should be acceptable to the United States and the
international community is for Iran to do so. Instead, Iran has been
advancing while the talks stall. Over the past year, as sanctions have
been lifted, Tehran has significantly benefited... What's more, as
Iran's economy has been recovering, its nuclear program has advanced
considerably. United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), a New York-based
advocacy group, notes that Iran has a sufficient stockpile of
low-enriched uranium for as many as seven nuclear weapons, and its
stockpile continues to grow. This is deeply troubling, since enriching
uranium to that grade represents 70 percent of the effort needed to
produce weapons-grade uranium. In addition, Olli Heinonen, the former
head of the Department of Safeguards at the International Atomic Energy
Agency (IAEA), said this month that Iran could have up to 5,000
advanced-model IR-2 centrifuges, five times as many as it claims to
have. UANI notes that if these centrifuges were installed, they could
cut Iran's 'break-out' time - the amount of time it would take to
produce enough weapons-grade uranium for one nuclear device - to a
matter of weeks, if not days... If the Iran talks are to be extended
again, then the United States will have to abandon its desperate desire
to reach an agreement, any agreement, and instead insist on a deal that
has a high standard for Iran to meet. Iran should be denied the ability
to enrich uranium or reprocess plutonium. It should also be subjected
to an intrusive and extensive inspection and verification regime to
ensure that it does not have any covert facilities that could be used
to 'sneak out,' or achieve nuclear-weapons capability without the
international community's knowledge. This inspection regime should last
for at least two decades, the amount of time it took for the IAEA to
declare that South Africa's nuclear program was peaceful; in that case,
the agency's inspections took place with the full cooperation of the
South African government. Given Iran's lengthy history of deceiving and
stonewalling the international community, two decades should be
considered the minimum period for this inspection regime. For its part,
the new Congress should insist that the Obama administration take a
fresh approach to these international negotiations. Our lawmakers
should approve crippling sanctions-in-waiting for use if Iran does not
negotiate in good faith with the P5+1, and they should require the
administration to submit any final deal to Congress for approval. This
is critical in the light of the New York Times's October report that
the administration will use its power to 'suspend' sanctions against
Iran rather than seek approval from Congress to lift them. This threat
from the administration contradicts Secretary Kerry's pledge earlier
this year that the administration would be 'obligated' to seek
congressional approval for lifting sanctions against Iran as part of a
final deal, and that he and his colleagues understood that 'what we do
will have to pass muster with Congress.'" http://t.uani.com/1HCVmhd
Mary Anastasia
O'Grady in WSJ: "The West is well aware of the
growing presence of Islamic fundamentalism in the Americas, but policy
makers may be underestimating the threat. Joseph Humire is a security
analyst and co-editor of 'Iran's Strategic Penetration of Latin
America,' a book published earlier this year. In an interview in New
York last week, Mr. Humire described Iran's significant progress, over
three decades, in setting up operations in the region. The earliest
stages of the process have featured clandestine operatives using
mosques to make connections inside Muslim communities and then using
those connections to access wealth and gain political prominence. Where
these initial forays have been successful, says Mr. Humire, Iran has
opened embassies and established commercial agreements that allow
operatives to create businesses, which can be used as fronts for covert
operations. In Venezuela and Bolivia, Iran has moved to the next level,
developing a military presence through joint ventures in defense
industries. In Venezuela, the state of Aragua, where Mr. El Aissami is
now governor, is ground zero for this activity. Havana applauds this
Islamic intervention. Since the rise of chavismo, Cuba has supplied
intelligence services to Venezuela and its regional allies, notably
Nicaragua, Bolivia and Ecuador. Mr. Humire says it has also supplied
passport-information technology to allow these countries to process
individuals from the Middle East, hand out new documents and maintain
the secrecy of true identities. Cuba has used this capacity to exchange
information with like-minded nations, including Russia and Iran... Mr.
El Aissami's Aragua state is where Parchin Chemical Industries (PCI)
and Qods Aviation, two Iranian military-owned companies, have joint ventures
with Venezuela's military industry, according to 'Iran's Strategic
Penetration of Latin America.' PCI is a maker of explosives, ammunition
and rocket propellant for missiles. Qods is a maker of unmanned aerial
vehicles. Both companies have been sanctioned by the U.N. Security
Council under Resolution 1747. The chapter written by Mr. Humire says
Havana is now 'trying to clear its debt to Iran' in order to receive
economic assistance from Tehran. This aid will doubtless be conditioned
on greater Iranian access to nations under Cuban influence, including
Venezuela, he says. They will likely turn to Mr. El Aissami for
help." http://t.uani.com/1xKhzFS
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Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against
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email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com
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