Friday, June 26, 2015

Eye on Iran: White House, Foes Turn Up Heat Ahead of Iran Deadline







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AFP: "Down-to-the-wire talks in Vienna this week will decide whether the United States can reach a landmark nuclear deal with Iran, but a fierce lobbying battle in Washington may decide if it survives. For the last two years, those for and against an agreement to curb Iran's nuclear program have traded newspaper opinion pieces, rolled out dueling advocacy campaigns and lobbied 'influencers' on the think tank circuit. But, days before the June 30 negotiating deadline, the White House's political allies and its foes are significantly dialing up efforts to sell or sink the deal. United Against Nuclear Iran -- led by former president George W. Bush's ambassador to the United Nations, Mark Wallace -- announced Tuesday it will plough vast resources into influencing the debate. 'We announced a national advocacy campaign with national television ads, print, multi-tiered social media and digital,' Wallace told AFP. 'We have a multi-million-dollar budget and we are in it for the long haul. Money continues to pour in.' ... Gary Samore, who for four years was Obama's principal advisor on arms control, believes the United States and its five negotiating allies should insist on tougher terms. He has joined United Against Nuclear Iran in demanding unbridled international access to military facilities, interviews with Iranian nuclear scientists and other concessions that Tehran is highly unlikely to accept. 'I think P5+1 should insist that Iran meet our demands on the remaining issues to ensure an acceptable deal,' he told AFP." http://t.uani.com/1QTDXba

NYT: "The State Department issued a dismal assessment of Iran's record on human rights on Thursday, hours before Secretary of State John Kerry was to leave for Vienna to try to conclude a nuclear accord with Tehran. The annual assessment, part of a broad overview of human rights practices around the world, said that the Iranian authorities had stifled dissent and engaged in 'unlawful killings.' 'The government arrested students, journalists, lawyers, political activists, women's activists, artists and members of religious minorities, many with crimes such as 'propaganda against the system,' ' the report said. It added, 'The government and its agents reportedly committed arbitrary or unlawful killings, including, most commonly, by execution after arrest without due process.' This is the second time in two weeks that the State Department has asserted that Iran's policies do not appear to have substantially changed since Hassan Rouhani was elected president in 2013. Last week, the State Department said that Iran was still involved in 'terrorist-related' activities, and that it was providing broad military support to President Bashar al-Assad of Syria... Tom Malinowski, the assistant secretary of state for human rights, said there had been no discernible progress on Iran's record on human rights since Mr. Rouhani became president. 'I can't say that we have seen any meaningful improvement in the human rights situation in Iran,' he said at a news briefing." http://t.uani.com/1GxbIoD

AFP: "Iran warned Friday that 'some major problems' need to be resolved before a historic nuclear deal can be agreed, as US Secretary of State John Kerry prepared to fly to Vienna for crunch weekend talks. The United States, admitting for the first time that Tuesday's deadline may be missed by a few days, had said Thursday that 'tough political decisions' still have to be made and that 'some of the trickiest issues' remain under discussion. With Kerry due late Friday and other ministers from Iran and major powers expected this weekend, Iran's lead negotiator said: 'Some major problems exist which are still blocking the work.' Abbas Araghchi, who is deputy foreign minister, told state television however that 'in other areas we have made good progress... Overall, the work is moving ahead slowly and with difficulty'... On Thursday a senior US official said that the key unresolved points in what will be a highly complex accord included the timing and pace of sanctions relief and details about access and transparency for UN inspectors. 'These negotiations have been extremely tough,' the official said. 'It is like (the game) whack-a-mole. Another issue may pop back up because you've changed the balance of the deal because of any decision.'" http://t.uani.com/1HjXDAx

   
Nuclear Program & Negotiations

AFP: "High-stakes talks to nail down a historic deal with Iran to curtail its nuclear programme may 'slip' past a June 30 deadline, a top US official admitted Thursday ahead of crunch weekend negotiations in Vienna. 'We may not make June 30, but we will be close,' the senior official told reporters as top US diplomat John Kerry prepared to head Friday for what could be the last talks between Iran and global powers on the deal. The official said the target date to finalise the historic deal -- the main outlines were agreed in April in Lausanne, Switzerland -- would only 'slip' by a few days. 'The intent of everybody here -- the P5+1, the European Union, Iran -- is to stay until we get this done, or find out we can't. And our intent is to get it done,' the official told reporters, asking not to be named... 'We can truly see a path forward that gets us to a very good agreement here. We know what the pieces of it are,' the US official said, adding that in the end, Iran was facing 'critical choices.'" http://t.uani.com/1RCMJ8G

CNN: "The U.S. expects that the text of any potential deal with Iran, including detailed technical annexes, will be made public but not be signed by the negotiating parties, a senior administration official told reporters Thursday. The official, who briefed reporters on the eve of Secretary of State John Kerry's travel to Vienna for a final round of negotiations, said this sort of agreement is not typically signed. But that could open the door to critics who say the arrangement gives Iran an opportunity to violate it... The senior administration official acknowledged Thursday that the June 30 deadline might slip but said that if the deal comes together, it will be 'close' to the official deadline. 'We didn't make March 30, and we may not make June 30,' the official noted. But the official added that, as with the March deadline set for a preliminary deal, the parties don't expect the talks to go past the deadline by more than a few days... The official told reporters that the U.S. does require that Iran give the UN's nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, the access it needs to verify Iran's compliance with a deal and address concerns about previous nuclear work. However, the official said that the U.S. is not looking for a 'confession' from Iran on its past nuclear activities, because 'we already made our national judgment.'" http://t.uani.com/1IhGKW4

AP: "The foreign ministers of Iran, the United States and France are joining Iran nuclear talks, as they try to overcome disputes ahead of a June 30 target date for a deal. Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif and French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius are expected to arrive in Vienna on Saturday. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry is due to arrive just before midnight Friday according to their travel schedules. Foreign ministers from Russia, China, Britain and Germany have not formally announced dates of arrival. But they are also expected to join over the next few days to try and bridge stubborn differences on the limits Tehran must accept on its nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of economic sanctions." http://t.uani.com/1CvNA40

Reuters: "As talks on an Iran nuclear deal enter the final stretch, U.S. lawmakers are sharpening warnings against a 'weak' agreement and laying down red lines that, if crossed, could prompt Congress to trip up a carefully crafted international pact. Several influential lawmakers said they do not want to see any sanctions lifted before Tehran begins complying with a deal, and want a tough verification regime, in which inspectors could visit Iranian facilities anytime and anywhere. They also want Tehran to reveal past military dimensions of its nuclear program, particularly after Secretary of State John Kerry seemed to soften the U.S. stance last week, by saying Iran would not be pressed on this point. 'I have become more and more concerned with the direction of these negotiations and the potential red lines that may be crossed,' said Senator Bob Corker, the Republican chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee... The Congressional demands for a watertight deal put U.S. negotiators under additional pressure not to give Iran much leeway. Virginia Senator Tim Kaine, a Democrat, said a deal would be a 'non-starter' for him if, for example, Iran refused to allow inspections on military bases. 'The two biggest issues for people will be the intrusive nature of the inspections and how comprehensive they are, and the timing of sanctions relief,' he said." http://t.uani.com/1NeDcTV

AFP: "Saudi Arabia is pursuing its own nuclear projects and building alliances to counter Iran, which is days away from a potential atomic deal Riyadh fears could further destabilise the region... On Wednesday, France and Saudi Arabia announced a feasibility study for building two nuclear reactors in the kingdom. Like its neighbour the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia wants to diversify its energy sources and has plans for 16 reactors. The Paris pact is the third nuclear accord Riyadh has signed this year. Last week, it reached a deal with Russia on economic, technical and scientific ties for the peaceful use of atomic energy. In March, the kingdom signed a preliminary deal for nuclear cooperation with South Korea. 'Saudi Arabia is going big with its nuclear project,' said Jamal Khashoggi, a veteran journalist and an analyst who is linked to the royal family. 'Of course officially it is a peaceful project', but the nuclear know-how could also be used to develop weapons, he said." http://t.uani.com/1HjX35S

Politico: "When Secretary of State John Kerry arrives in Vienna for a final push toward a nuclear deal with Iran, a key Iranian negotiator will be missing from the talks for health reasons - a potential setback for the already-delicate negotiations, U.S. officials and experts said. The health-related absence of Ali Akbar Salehi, chief of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization, is just the latest in a series of medical mishaps for the main players in the nuclear talks. Kerry himself is on crutches as he recovers from breaking his leg in a cycling accident last month, and two other top negotiators, including Kerry's top counterpart, have suffered injuries or health scares in recent months." http://t.uani.com/1Cyxd6I

Congressional Action

The Hill: "Sens. Mark Kirk (R-Ill.) and Robert Menendez (D-N.J.) are pushing a 10-year extension for an Iran sanctions bill days ahead of a deadline to finalize a long-term deal on the country's nuclear program. The two senators, who have been at the forefront of a push to increase sanctions against the Iranian government, want to extend the Iran Sanctions Act, currently set to expire at the end of next year, through 2026... Thursday's legislation is the second time the senators have pushed the measure. They also tried to get it in the National Defense Authorization Act... Menendez suggested the administration should back the legislation if it is serious about its pledge to snap back sanctions if Iran violates a final deal. 'If a deal is reached with Iran, it is critical that should Iran violate the terms of an agreement, severe penalties will follow and a forceful snapback of sanctions will occur,' the New Jersey Democrat said.  'It stands to reason that if negotiators are serious about snapback, then they should support the immediate extension of the Iran Sanctions Act to ensure there is no question for Iran about the consequences of non-compliance.' Kirk added the administration must support the legislation if it 'is serious about maintaining terrorism sanctions against Iran no matter what.'" http://t.uani.com/1BS3Am3

Sanctions Relief

Reuters: "Russia's top natural gas producer, Gazprom, may take part in liquefied natural gas projects in Iran once sanctions against Tehran are lifted, Gazprom's deputy Chief Executive Officer Alexander Medvedev said on Friday. 'Gazprom does not rule out its participation in these projects under certain conditions,' Medvedev told reporters. 'The sanctions should be lifted first.' Russia has stepped up efforts to strengthen ties with Iran and announced an oil-for-goods program in which the Islamic Republic would export up to 500,000 barrels of oil per day to Russia in exchange for goods, including grain." http://t.uani.com/1NlH1rd

Cyberwarfare

WashPost: "The purported theft of confidential Saudi documents that have been released by WikiLeaks bears the hallmarks of Iranian hackers linked to cyberattacks in more than a dozen countries, including the United States, according to cybersecurity experts and Middle East analysts. Last week, WikiLeaks published about 70,000 of what it said were half a million documents obtained from Saudi Arabia's Foreign Ministry. The transparency advocacy group promises more releases of the diplomatic cables, whose authenticity has not been independently verified. Experts said that the cables, apparently stolen over the past year, paint an unflattering portrait of Saudi diplomacy as reliant on oil-wealth patronage and obsessed with Iran, the kingdom's chief rival, but appeared to contain no shocking revelations. More intriguing, they said, are signs of Iran's involvement in the breach, suggesting a growing resort to - and proficiency in - cyberwarfare in that country's long-running confrontation with Saudi Arabia and the West." http://t.uani.com/1LzEsnb

Human Rights

NYT: "Jason Rezaian, the Washington Post reporter incarcerated in Iran for nearly a year, is finding prison life 'ever more difficult' and has only recently become aware of the global support for him, including a plea for his release from Muhammad Ali, Mr. Rezaian's mother, Mary, said on Thursday. In a telephone interview, she also said that Mr. Rezaian, a California native with dual citizenship whom the Iranian authorities have charged with espionage and other crimes, had asked that she come to Tehran for the summer, an indication that he expects his legal battle to be extended for some time. Mr. Rezaian, 39, has declared his innocence, and his supporters have called the case a political farce." http://t.uani.com/1FEZNDk

Opinion & Analysis

WSJ Editorial: "Doubts about President Obama's Iran diplomacy are deepening, and some of the gravest misgivings are coming from his former top officials. That's the import of a statement Wednesday from a bipartisan group under the auspices of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. In measured language, the statement offers a list of musts for a good nuclear deal. They include granting nuclear inspectors access to all Iranian sites, including military ones; lifting sanctions only after Iran meets its nuclear obligations; requiring Tehran to come clean on its past nuclear work; and limiting the number of advanced centrifuges Iran can test and deploy. From what we know so far, Iran has balked on all of these points. The signers include James Cartwright, former Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, who became known as 'Obama's General.' Another is former CIA Director David Petraeus. Then there is Dennis Ross, Mr. Obama's Iran czar in his first term; Gary Samore, previously Mr. Obama's arms-control coordinator; James Jeffrey, formerly Mr. Obama's ambassador in Baghdad; and Howard Berman, the last Democrat to chair the House Foreign Relations Committee. Some Republicans are also on the list, but a neoconservative cabal this is not. President Obama and his aides often dismiss opponents of his nuclear diplomacy as always preferring war over diplomacy. But the striking fact is how widespread the concerns are as the White House appears to make ever more concessions." http://t.uani.com/1dkYbbs

FT Editorial: "Four days from now, Iran and a group of leading world powers will reach the much-awaited deadline for a deal to contain Tehran's nuclear programme. All the signs are that, after 12 years of often fraught negotiation, the final hours will be the most challenging... At this late stage, both sides need to keep their eyes on the prize. For Mr Obama, a deal would mark his biggest foreign policy success, potentially ending nearly four decades of estranged relations between both nations. For the Iranian people, it would mark the beginning of the end of an international sanctions regime that has scarred their daily lives. But whatever the political upside, a deal needs to be technically robust. It will only deserve to endure if it truly stops Iran moving towards a bomb for at least another decade... The US must stand its ground on the need for robust UN inspection and verification of Iran's nuclear programme once it is frozen. Having seen a number of its scientists assassinated in recent years, Iran may be nervous about allowing foreigners inside its atomic sites. But the principle of 'trust and verify' is no less vital to this nuclear agreement than it was to the Gorbachev-Reagan arms control pacts of the 1980s... A pact of this magnitude will involve all sides in painful compromises. But ultimately, the fate of this negotiation lies in the hands of Iran's supreme leader. The time has come for him to decide whether to sign - or whether he and his regime can live with the consequences should Mr Obama walk away." http://t.uani.com/1TRCmlg

David Ignatius in WashPost: "Iran enters the endgame of the nuclear talks with what amount to two negotiating positions - the parameters reportedly endorsed in April in Lausanne, Switzerland, by Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, and another set of 'red lines' drawn this week by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The two positions are significantly different. The first version offers a workable basis for agreement. The second is fatally flawed... What the United States can't do is accede to Khamenei's red lines. They contradict several key items in the package tentatively reached April 2, involving the inspection of military facilities and the timing of the lifting of sanctions. No deal would be a better outcome than the severely weakened framework demanded by Khamenei. Ambiguity and face-saving are part of any successful negotiation, to be sure. And dueling texts were part of the Lausanne resolution. Zarif publicly supported a 'joint statement' that was vague on details. Kerry separately issued a fact sheet, with the detailed parameters that U.S. officials said had been agreed to privately. But it wasn't a signed deal... Khamenei set his parameters in a speech on Tuesday. The 'inspection of our military sites is out of the question,' he insisted, where Zarif had told me April 29 onstage at New York University that such investigation of 'undeclared facilities' was encompassed by Iran's acceptance of the IAEA's 'additional protocol.' Khamenei also rejected IAEA verification of its compliance, contradicting Zarif's declaration in Lausanne that sanctions would be lifted 'simultaneously with the IAEA-verified implementation by Iran of its key nuclear commitments.' Was Khamenei playing a political game - talking tough even as Zarif prepared to ratify concessions? That's what some U.S. experts are hoping. But they should read the fine print at the bottom of Khamenei's statement. Any 'propaganda' suggesting that 'some red lines [announced by the supreme leader] are agreed in private meetings to be crossed is totally wrong and a lie,' it said... Russia, China and other major powers have joined the United States in demanding that Iran accept verifiable limits to ensure that its nuclear program is civilian-only. Khamenei has fuzzed this commitment at the very moment it needs to become sharper. Perhaps that's a last-minute Iranian bargaining tactic; if so, it's a foolish one. But let's assume that Khamenei is serious. He truly doesn't want an agreement that will bind Iran's nuclear program for at least 10 years. If so, the right answer is: Come back when you're ready to make a serious deal." http://t.uani.com/1KfKurh
         

Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.



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