Sweden's
Populist Surge
Unrestrained
immigration has triggered an instinct for self-preservation
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N.B.: This text differs in minor ways
from the Washington Times version.
According to the most recent poll, the innocuously-named but
ferociously anti-establishment Sweden Democrats (Sverigedemokraterna
or SD) has the largest support of any political party in Sweden. This
news has potentially momentous implications not just for Sweden but for
all Europe.
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The Sweden Democrats
logo with the slogan "Security & Tradition."
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Sweden is a special place. One of the richest and most peaceful
countries in the world (it has not been engaged in armed conflict for two
centuries), until recently it was a remarkably homogenous society where
socialism, with its optimistic assumption that people are born good and
circumstances make them bad, worked and the government enjoyed great
prestige. Swedish pride in the country's accomplishments translates into
an ethical superiority symbolized by the oft-heard claim to be a
"moral superpower."
This heritage has also inspired an intolerance of dissent, however;
"Be quiet, follow the consensus, let the bureaucrats carry it
out." The country has become so notorious for its stifling
faux-unanimity that I actually heard a Dane recently ask at a public
forum, "Why has Sweden turned into the North Korea of
Scandinavia?"
Also, Sweden's history creates a no-crisis mentality that militates
against the hard-headed, flexible responses needed to cope with current
problems the country now faces, especially those connected to waves of
mainly Muslim immigrants. As one interlocutor put it to me in Stockholm
earlier this month, "Past success has led to current failure."
For example, security in Sweden is well below what might find in a
country like Bolivia, with few inclinations to make improvements,
rendering Islamist violence all but inevitable.
In this stultification, the SD stands out because it offers the only
political alternative. Proof of this came in December 2014, when the SD
appeared to have the swing vote in a crucial budget vote between the left
and right blocs in the country's unicameral legislature, the Riksdag
– until all the other seven parties joined together in a grand coalition
to deny it any influence.
As this act of desperation suggests, the Sweden Democrats offer a
populist – and not, as usually described, a "far right"
– brew of policies anathema to all the legacy parties: Foremost, it calls
for assimilating legal immigrants, expelling the illegals, and reducing
future immigration by at least 90 percent. It also forwards a number of
other policies (concerning crime, defense, the European Union, and
Israel) far outside the Swedish consensus and utterly obnoxious to the
other parties.
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A subway ad in
Stockholm that illustrates the Sweden Democrats' messaging.
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With good reason, the establishment hates and fears the SD,
pedantically finding any possible fault with the party, starting with its
alleged neo-fascist past (though fascist connections are not
unique to SD) and going on to the tiniest foibles of its leadership.
Supporting the SD remains taboo. The national
police commissioner once tweeted about "vomiting" on seeing
the SD's leader; naturally, his staff dare not acknowledge their
supporting for the party. But one officer estimated for me that 50
percent of the police vote SD.
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The future national
police chief's tweet about vomiting in response to the Sweden
Democrats' leader.
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Despite being ostracized, the SD increasingly connects with Swedes
(including some immigrants),
giving it substantial electoral gains, roughly doubling its parliamentary
vote every four years: from 0.4 percent in 1998 to 1.3 percent in 2002,
2.9 percent in 2006, 5.7 percent in 2010, and 12.9 percent in September
2014. And now, less than a year later, a YouGov
poll shows it having nearly doubled again, to 25.2 percent, meaning
that it leads the governing Social Democrats (who have only 23.4 percent
support) and the major (nominally) right-wing party, the Moderates (with
21 percent).
No less important, I learned in Stockholm, the intellectual and
political climate has shifted. Journalists, policy specialists, and
politicians all noted that ideas outside the mainstream just a year ago
now receive a hearing. For example, four major newspapers have questioned
the consensus in favor of high immigration. Beside the surging SD vote,
this shift results from several factors: the shocking rise of the Islamic
State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS), which has altered the debate; continued
upset at the December compact that excluded the SD from having its due
parliamentary influence; and the receding memory of Anders Behring Breivik's
2011 murderous rampage in Norway.
In all, it appears that denial and censorship can only continue for so
long before the instinct of self-preservation kicks in. The Western
country most prone to national
suicide is possibly waking up from its stupor. If this change can
take place in Sweden, the "North Korea of Scandinavia," it can,
and likely will, occur elsewhere in Europe.
Mr. Pipes (DanielPipes.org, @DanielPipes) is president of the
Middle East Forum. © 2015 by Daniel Pipes. All rights reserved.
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text may be reposted or forwarded so long as it is presented as an
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