Eye on Iran: Expert: Khamenei's Letter to Rouhani Voids Deal

Join UANI           Top Stories JPost: "Conditions set out by Iran Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei effectively give him the power to bypass the government and cancel the nuclear deal, an expert said Sunday. Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei published a letter of guidelines for President Hassan Rouhani, adding new conditions for Iran's execution of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action that was agreed upon on July 14. According to a recent analysis by Yigal Carmon, the president of the Washington-based Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI) and the head of its Iran desk, Ayelet Savyon, the letter was posted on Khamenei's website last Wednesday in Farsi, tweeted from his Twitter account and posted on his Facebook page in English. 'The set of conditions laid out by Khamenei creates a situation in which not only does the Iranian side refrain from approving the JCPOA but, with nearly every point, creates a separate obstacle, such that executing the agreement is not possible,' they wrote... One of the 10 new demands made by Khamenei is that the US and Europe provide 'solid and sufficient' guarantees that they will drop sanctions before Iran complies with its commitments under the agreement. The letter also rules out any snapback option, saying it would be considered 'non-compliance' with the agreement. Another condition states that any sanctions against Iran 'at every level and on every pretext,' including terrorism and human rights violations, would 'constitute a violation of the JCPOA.' The implication of that condition, according to the MEMRI report, is that it prevents 'any commitment of Iran on any issue and for any reason,' serving 'as an excuse for Iran to cancel the agreement.'" http://t.uani.com/1k79rfd CSM: "When the Iran nuclear deal was reached in July, President Obama and other administration officials listed among the agreement's attributes the potential for a less confrontational relationship with Tehran - indeed, for a new era of cooperation between Iran and the West. Things haven't turned out that way so far. This week, the United States, joined by France and other European powers, took Iran to the United Nations Security Council over Iran's test launch this month of an intercontinental missile - one deemed capable of carrying a nuclear warhead - in violation of a Security Council resolution. And in recent weeks Iran has ramped up its involvement in the Syrian conflict, building up both its ground forces and its proxy army Hezbollah to take back territory from United States- and Western-backed rebels fighting against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. That's hardly the stuff of a transformed relationship. What Iran's provocative actions do suggest is a conscious effort to demonstrate both to conservatives at home and allies internationally that the nuclear deal does not portend a compliant Iran, regional security analysts say. What you have to expect is a stiffening of the Iranian position, a hardening really,' says one European diplomat, who requested anonymity to discuss sensitive issues candidly. 'The regime in Tehran will be obliged to show to the world and to its radicals that it has not caved to the Americans.'" http://t.uani.com/1jLLjiI Bloomberg: "Iran, by its own admission, needs $150 billion of investment annually for many years ahead to repair the damage from a decade of isolation. That's a tall order for a country that, even when sanctions are finally lifted, will still be an opaque and scary place to most foreign investors. Enter Hamid Biglari. The 57-year-old Iranian-American -- a Cornell University-educated, ex-Citigroup banker who learned the trade under the tutelage of Robert Rubin and Sandy Weill -- may have no official role, but by all accounts he's President Hassan Rouhani's go-to guy in New York financial circles. Biglari brings together investors and Iranian power brokers, at conferences or private meetings, as he pushes to drum up interest in his homeland. He had left Iran as a student a couple years before the 1979 revolution and wouldn't return, not even for a visit, until the reformist Rouhani's election some three decades later. Yet in a sign of his expanding influence now in Tehran, Biglari receives invitations to address the central bank there. In conversations, Biglari quickly makes clear he is aware of the magnitude of the current challenge... Like other Western-educated figures close to Rouhani -- most notably Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, the key nuclear negotiator -- he's been pilloried in the conservative press as an American agent. Such designations carry real risks: Siamak Namazi, another Iranian-American who advocated closer ties with Western countries, and a partner in a consulting company that advised businesses seeking to invest in Iran, was arrested in Tehran last month, according to Taghato, a website for Iranian news." http://t.uani.com/1XwcRH3 Nuclear Program & Agreement Al-Monitor: "The US National Security Council is joining the State Department in establishing a new office to oversee implementation of the Iran nuclear deal, to be headed by NSC Director for Nonproliferation Paul Irwin, a veteran of the US nuclear negotiating team, US officials tell Al-Monitor. The new directorate signals the White House plans to play a lead role in the critical implementation phase of the landmark nuclear deal. It comes as the Obama administration has also tapped several veterans of the US-Iran nuclear negotiating team to play a continued role interacting with the Iranians on implementation issues. Among them, State Department senior arms control adviser James Timbie, and top State Department Iran sanctions coordinator Christopher Backemeyer, who, along with Irwin, were key members of the US team with firsthand experience negotiating the deal with the Iranians. 'The NSC is standing up a new directorate which will be focused on the implementation of the [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action]' a senior US administration official told Al-Monitor in response to a query. 'Successful implementation of the JCPOA is one of the president's top priorities and the new directorate will ensure continued focus on the issue,' the official said. 'The new Implementation Directorate will be coordinating and working closely with Ambassador [Stephen] Mull's team at the State Department.' Irwin, a former NSC director of nonproliferation involved in the past two years of talks, is expected to have a number of staff working below him in the new directorate, and will work closely with Mull's shop as well as with Timbie at State." http://t.uani.com/1N50fn8 Military Matters Fars (Iran): "Lieutenant Commander of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) Brigadier General Hossein Salami said Iran's high-precision missiles are capable of destroying enemy targets 2,000 km away. 'When our defense industries build missiles with a range of 2,000 km and a zero margin of error, this means that we can target any fixed and mobile base in this operational radius with 100% precision and a zero margin of error,' Salami said in an interview with the state TV on Monday night. He underscored the country's resolve to continue fortifying its defensive power, and said, 'We don't study the resolutions (approved to curb Iran's missile power) since we are responsible for developing the power and no one can dictate anything to us.' Salami referred to Iran's recent unveiling of a deep underground tunnel facility packed with missiles and launcher units a few days after the country tested a new long-range missile, and said, 'That was one of our oldest stockpiles and we haven't yet shown our modern missile depots, where missiles with big cross sections have been stockpiled.'" http://t.uani.com/1POM1IN Sanctions Relief Reuters: "President Hassan Rouhani reaffirmed on Tuesday he expected sanctions on Iran to be lifted by year-end, a week after its clerical supreme leader ordered restrictions that could delay the implementation of Tehran's nuclear deal with world powers. 'According to our plans, the oppressive sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran will be lifted by the end of 2015,' state news agency IRNA quoted Rouhani as saying during a ceremony to welcome the new Spanish ambassador to Tehran. Under Iran's July 14 accord with the six powers, the Islamic Republic must dismantle large parts of its disputed nuclear program before international sanctions over suspicions it had bomb-making purposes can be lifted. Most analysts expect this process, which began on Oct. 18, to take at least four to six months, but Rouhani has repeatedly said he expects sanctions to be lifted in December. The process was further complicated last week when Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's top authority, said Iran would not begin work on two key issues until United Nations inspectors issued a report on their investigation into possible military dimensions (PMD) to Iran's nuclear program. Ali Akbar Velayati, a top adviser to Khamenei, warned on Tuesday that the top leader's support for the deal depended on adhering to these and other restrictions." http://t.uani.com/1POJ5fh Reuters: "Most Iranian banks will be able to reconnect to the SWIFT financial-transactions system, a key to rekindling foreign trade, once Iran's nuclear-related measures have been verified, SWIFT said on Monday. SWIFT, or Society for the Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications, operates service transmitting letters of credit, payments and securities transactions among 9,700 banks in 209 countries... The European Union approved legislation on Oct. 18 allowing for the lifting of EU sanctions as set out in the Iran nuclear agreement. That includies restrictions on financial systems like SWIFT. Banks that were subject to sanctions specified in the nuclear deal will automatically be able to reconnect 'following the completion of our normal connection process, that is administrative and systems checks, connectivity and technical arrangements', SWIFT said. Re-establishing links to the world's financial networks will make it easier for foreign companies to take part in privatisations in Iran, a senior Iran official said in July. SWIFT said some Iranian banks will still be excluded under other sanctions." http://t.uani.com/1KCLEsS Shana (Iran): "In a decisive headway bid to win back its status of the global hub of energy, Tehran will host two major conferences on oil and gas industry in November designed to assist Iran, the world's largest holder of oil and gas reserves combined, to regain its heavy-weight title following removal of the sanctions. The Third Summit of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) which will convene on November 23 in Tehran and the Iran Petroleum Contracts (IPC) Conference on November 28-29 to unveil Iran's new oil and gas contracts in the post-sanction era are welcome developments for joint venture investments, energy executives and analysts told Shana. Moreover, the follow-up IPC conference slated for February 22-24 in London to coincide the lifting of sanctions will further secure Iran's strong return to international market, said participants of the Iranian Petroleum and Energy Club (IPEC) 2015 Congress and Exhibition on October 19-21." http://t.uani.com/1We7N7G IRNA (Iran): "The South Korean Samsung Company has expressed its readiness to cooperate with Iran in building offshore facilities, reported Shana, the Petro Energy Information Network on Tuesday. 'The Samsung Company has formerly cooperated with us develop our floating storage unit (FSU) in the Persian Gulf,' said Said Hafezi Director General of the National Iranian Continental Shelf Oil Company after receiving the Samsung delegation. Samsung Company is involved in the construction of offshore facilities and power plants, Hafezi added. The Samsung investment group has expressed its readiness to implement EPC (Engineering, Procurement, Construction) and EPCF (Engineering, Procurement, Construction and Financing Contract) projects in Iran, he said... The FSU constructed by the Samsung Group for Iran in the Persian Gulf is the largest floating storage unit in the world." http://t.uani.com/1GGhmKH WSJ: "India's Oil and Natural Gas Corp. is in talks with Iranian state company Pars Oil and Gas Co. to return to a $10 billion gas project that it abandoned because of American pressure, a top official in Tehran said Wednesday. The Indian company, known as ONGC, approached the Iranians last week during an energy conference in Tehran, said Ali-Akbar Shabanpour, the managing director of Pars Oil and Gas Co., in an interview. ONGC is interested in returning to Farzad B, a giant natural gas concession in the Persian Gulf overseen by Mr. Shabanpour's company. ONGC discovered gas in the field in 2008, but left the project after 2010 as the U.S. pressured countries to quit doing business with Iran because of its nuclear program. 'They came to us' to discuss reviving the deal, Mr. Shabanpour said. 'We will get the history and documentation of the project' and discuss a possible return, he said." http://t.uani.com/1WfULqa Prague Post: "The United States has expressed concern about the planned Prague-Tehran direct flights to be operated by Mahan Air, the largest Iranian private airlines, since it considers the firm dangerous for security reasons, daily Lidové noviny (LN) writes today. Mahan Air is one of the firms on which the US has imposed sanctions since it has contacts with the Hezbollah Islamist militant group based in Lebanon, and it serves as 'a government travel agency' for secret agents from the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, according to U.S. security experts. This is also why they closely watch the ongoing talks about a license for Mahan Air at the Czech Civil Aviation Authority (UCL). The Americans have sent a letter to Prague pointing out security risks in connection with Mahan Air, LN writes. Mahan Air plans to operate the flights on the route Prague-Tehran three times a week. Prague would thereby become the first city in Central and Eastern Europe to have a direct air connection with the Iranian capital, LN says. 'The Mahan Air Iranian company has expressed interest in operating a regular flight on the Prague-Tehran route as of June 1, 2016,' Zdenek Neuser, from the Transport Ministry's press section, confirmed to LN." http://t.uani.com/1kIyxBx Bloomberg: "Competition in the global iron ore market has become so intense as low-cost supplies surge that Iranian shippers have abandoned efforts to court overseas sales and will seek $20 billion to develop a domestic steel industry that may get a boost from the end of sanctions. Iran planned to more than triple steel capacity to 55 million tonnes in the next 10 years, potentially helping consume 120 million tonnes of domestic ore, Keyvan Jafari Tehrani, head of international affairs at the Iranian Iron Ore Producers and Exporters Association, says... The mining industry is looking forward to the end of sanctions as the sector will be able to access global know-how to upgrade technology that's 10 to 15 years old, Tehrani says. 'An upgraded mining sector can help Iran reduce reliance on oil income' and unlock the nation's mineral wealth, Tehrani says. 'We can reduce our reliance on steel imports, while supplying domestic demand and even be able to export 14 million tonnes of steel a year by 2025.'" http://t.uani.com/1Wfwl5n Syria Conflict Reuters: "Further diplomatic discussions on ending the Syrian conflict could occur as soon as the end of this week, a State Department spokesman said on Monday, acknowledging that Iran would eventually need to be involved in the talks on a political transition in Syria. 'At some point ... we know there's going to need to be a conversation with Iran toward the end of a political transition there,' spokesman John Kirby told reporters following talks in Vienna on Friday between U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and counterparts from Russia, Saudi Arabia and Turkey on a political settlement in Syria. The Vienna meeting sought to explore a political solution to the Syrian civil war despite disagreement among the parties over the future of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Kirby said Iran's role in the Syrian conflict, including its support for Assad and Lebanon's Hezbollah, was unhelpful... 'They are a stakeholder in this process. They do have a relationship with the Assad regime; they do have a relationship inside Syria,' Kirby said of Iran, adding: 'The secretary is more than mindful that this is a complicated process. It's gonna take some time, and it will, inevitably, involve some compromises by everybody, as we get there.'" http://t.uani.com/1O4XsMn AP: "An Iranian official says the Revolutionary Guard has sent more military advisers to Syria to help President Bashar Assad in the fight against insurgents. Gen. Hossein Salami, the Guard's deputy leader, says this has led to more Iranian deaths in the conflict. Salami didn't give any specifics for the Iranian death toll or for the number of troops dispatched. Salami spoke to state television on Tuesday. He says Iranian forces are also trying to mobilize volunteers in Syria to help Assad push back rebels, though he did not say if those included Western-backed rebel groups fighting in Syria." http://t.uani.com/1OUTBBC Bloomberg: "Iran has extended its military support to Syria to include training, recruitment assistance and help to revamp its army, following a request from President Bashar al-Assad's regime, a senior Iranian military official said. 'The army has been involved for four years in a draining war, it needs a structural change,' Brigadier General Hossein Salami, deputy head of Iran's Revolutionary Guards, said in an interview broadcast late Monday cited by Tasnim news agency. Iran has provided strategic and operational advice, including training on maintaining and repairing equipment, he said... 'The national security of Syria and Iran are tied together, and understanding this reality is the philosophy of our presence in Syria,' Iranian Brigadier General Salami said. Assad's regime 'has become the front-line for resistance' against the U.S. and Israel, he said." http://t.uani.com/1MgmBgg Iraq Crisis Reuters: "In April, Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi sat at a conference table in his Baghdad office with almost two dozen men in combat fatigues. The men were not officers in the Iraqi Army, but representatives of the Shi'ite paramilitary groups that have led the fight against Islamic State. Hadi al-Amiri, one of the most senior militia leaders, delivered a long and forceful monologue on his fighters' recent victories. Abadi, in a blazer and tie, listened, occasionally jotting down notes, a video of the meeting shows. A few minutes later, Abadi himself praised the fighters. The event was a sign of the delicate power balance in Iraq. Abadi, a Shi'ite, came to office just over a year ago backed by both the United States and Iran. He promised to rebuild the fragmented country he inherited from his predecessor, Nuri al-Maliki, who was widely accused of fueling sectarian divisions. Since then, though, even more power has shifted from the government to the militia leaders. Those leaders are friendly with Abadi. But the most influential describe themselves as loyal not only to Iraq but also to Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Three big militias - Amiri's Badr Organisation, Asaib Ahl al-Haq and Kataib Hezbollah - use the Iranian Shi'ite cleric's image on either their posters or websites. Badr officials describe their relationship with Iran as good for Iraq's national interests... Tensions are rising. Men affiliated with the paramilitaries have beaten protesters, who include secular activists, ordinary citizens and reform-inclined Islamists. Protesters say at least two demonstrators have been killed since August. Abadi's next steps will help determine whether the state can reassert itself. 'Can Abadi deliver?' asked secular lawmaker Mithal Alusi. 'Not like this ... Abadi is so weak he will not be able to deliver anything.' Alusi also accused Iran's Revolutionary Guards, which back some of the militias, of weakening the prime minister in the name of 'having chaos, so they can control everything.'" http://t.uani.com/1H4QNtB Human Rights AP: "Two Iranian poets jailed for their work and sentenced to 99 lashes apiece for shaking hands with members of the opposite sex are the latest targets in a crackdown that analysts say pits hard-liners against those offering new glimpses of life in the Islamic Republic. The sentences follow a pattern of arrests and convictions targeting activists, journalists and artists that has served as a grim backdrop to President Hassan Rouhani's efforts to soften the country's image and improve relations with the West, including through the landmark nuclear agreement reached last summer... Fatemeh Ekhtesari, a practicing obstetrician, and Mehdi Mousavi, a trained doctor who teaches literature and poetry, were first arrested in December 2013, months after Rouhani took office. Earlier this month, Ekhtesari received an 11½-year prison sentence, while Mousavi got nine years on charges ranging from propaganda against the state to 'insulting sanctities,' as well as the lashings, according to PEN." http://t.uani.com/208rl24 Reuters: "Iran could be on track to execute more than 1,000 people this year, even as it seems more willing to engage with the United Nations on human rights after a nuclear deal with world powers, a U.N. investigator said on Monday. U.N. special rapporteur on Iran, Ahmed Shaheed, suggested that human rights violators should be named and shamed and targeted with sanctions such as a travel ban. Shaheed described his latest report to the United Nations as 'marginally more optimistic than my previous reports' and told reporters he had witnessed more 'meaningful' engagement between Iran and the world body. He said he met for the first time with members of the Iranian judiciary and security forces in Geneva last month. 'Their response to my current report has been the most substantive over the past 4-1/2 years,' he said. 'But other developments in Iran over the past 12 months gives us pause on why we should not put too much weight on this because there have been rising executions,' Shaheed said, adding that women are still treated as second-class citizens. Some 700 people have already been executed in Iran in 2015 and the country is 'possibly on track to exceed a 1,000 by the end of the year,' Shaheed said. He has reported that at least 753 people were executed in Iran in 2014." http://t.uani.com/1LZKOM5 Opinion & Analysis Bret Stephens in WSJ: "The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action-better known as the Iran nuclear deal-was officially adopted Sunday, Oct. 18. That's nine days ago. It's already a dead letter. Not that you would have noticed by reading the news or tuning in to State Department or White House briefings. It's too embarrassing to an administration that has invested all of its diplomatic capital in the deal. Also, too inconvenient to the commodity investors, second-tier banks, European multinationals and everyone else who wants a piece of the Iranian market and couldn't care less whether Tehran honors its nuclear bargain. Yet here we are. Iran is testing the agreement, reinterpreting it, tearing it up line by line. For the U.S.-or at least our next president-the lesson should be clear: When you sign a garbage agreement, you get a garbage outcome. Earlier this month Iran test-fired a new-generation ballistic missile, called Emad, with an estimated 1,000-mile range and a 1,600-pound payload. Its only practical military use is to deliver a nuclear warhead. The test was a bald violation of the Security Council's Resolution 2231, adopted unanimously in July, in which 'Iran is called upon not to undertake any activity related to ballistic missiles designed to be capable of delivering nuclear weapons' for at least eight years. Then Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei weighed in on the nuclear deal by way of a public letter to President Hassan Rouhani. 'The behavior and words of the U.S. government in the nuclear issue and its prolonged and boring negotiations,' he wrote, 'showed that [the nuclear issue] was also another link in their chain of hostile enmity with the Islamic Republic.' The Supreme Leader's comments on the nuclear deal have been billed by some reporters as a cautious endorsement of the agreement. Not exactly. They are a unilateral renegotiation of the entire deal, stipulating that the U.S. and everyone else must accept his rewrite-or else. The best analysis of Mr. Khamenei's demands comes from Yigal Carmon and Ayelet Savyon of the Middle East Media Research Institute. Demand One: The U.S. and Europe must completely lift, rather than temporarily suspend, their economic sanctions, putting an end to any possibility that penalties could 'snap back' in the event of Iran's noncompliance. Demand Two: Sanctions against Iran for its support of terrorism and its human-rights abuses must also go, never mind the Obama administration's insistence that it will continue to punish Iran for its behavior. Next Mr. Khamenei changes the timetable for Iran to ship out its enriched uranium and modify its plutonium reactor in Arak until the International Atomic Energy Agency gives Iran a pass on all 'past and future issues (including the so-called Possible Military Dimensions or PMD of Iran's nuclear program).' So much for the U.N. nuclear watchdog even pretending to monitor Iran's compliance with the deal. He also reiterates his call for a huge R&D effort so that Iran will have at least 190,000 centrifuges when the nuclear deal expires. 'The set of conditions laid out by Khamenei,' Mr. Carmon and Ms. Savyon note in their analysis, 'creates a situation in which not only does the Iranian side refrain from approving the JCPOA, but, with nearly every point, creates a separate obstacle, such that executing the agreement is not possible.' ... As for the administration, it would be nice to imagine that it is starting to sense the Ayatollah's disdain. But it isn't. The missile test was met by a wan effort to take 'appropriate action' at the U.N., whatever that might be. Mr. Khamenei's letter has been met with almost complete silence, as if ignoring it will make it go away." http://t.uani.com/208uFdw Y. Carmon and A. Savyon in MEMRI: "On October 21, 2015, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei published a letter of guidelines to Iranian President Hassan Rohani on the execution of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The letter's publication coincides with the days of the Ashura that are of vital religious and national significance in Iran and symbolize steadfastness against the forces of evil. Intended as an historical document aimed at assuring Iran's future, the letter was posted on Khamenei's website in Persian and tweeted from his Twitter account and posted on his Facebook page in English, and published in English by the official Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting authority IRIB. The letter is now a founding document in all things concerning the JCPOA and the conditions under which Iran will be willing to execute it. The letter, defined by Khamenei on his website as 'conditional approval' of the JCPOA, sets several new conditions for Iran's execution of the agreement. These conditions constitute late and unilateral additions to the agreement concluded three months previously that fundamentally change it. Khamenei stresses that the agreement awaits his opinion following what he calls 'precise and responsible examination' in the Majlis and 'clearance of this agreement through legal channels' in Iran's Supreme National Security Council. It should be further noted that in his introduction to the new conditions, Khamenei attacks the U.S. and President Obama with great hostility, and calls for Obama to be prosecuted by international judiciary institutions. He states that Obama had sent him two letters declaring that he has no intention of subverting the regime of the Islamic Republic of Iran, but adds that the U.S.'s support for fitna in Iran (i.e. the popular post-election unrest in 2009), its monetary aid to opponents of the Republic, and its explicit threats to attack Iran have proven the opposite and have exposed the real intent of America's leaders, whose enmity towards Iran will not end. He wrote that the Americans' behavior in the nuclear talks is another link in the chain of its enmity towards Iran, that America entered into the talks with the aim of 'deception,' and that therefore Iran must remain alert in light of America's hostile intentions.The set of conditions laid out by Khamenei creates a situation in which not only does the Iranian side refrain from approving the JCPOA, but, with nearly every point, creates a separate obstacle, such that executing the agreement is not possible. The following are Khamenei's nine conditions, and their implications." http://t.uani.com/1Lzywss AFPC Iran Task Force in NRO: "Last Sunday, Iran and the P5+1 countries (the U.S., U.K., France, China, Russia, and Germany) formally adopted the new nuclear agreement concluded this summer. In coming days, under the terms of the deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the Islamic Republic is obliged to begin implementing a series of curbs on its nuclear program. There is good reason to believe that it will do so in the near term, because the scope of the sanctions relief contained within the JCPOA is enormous - equivalent to a quarter of Iran's total economy. As such, complying with the terms of the deal makes good economic sense for Iran's ayatollahs, at least for the moment. That, however, does not signal an end to America's Iran problem. To the contrary, the entry into force of the JCPOA ushers in a new - and even more challenging - phase of American policy in the Middle East. Already, the nuclear agreement has begun to empower a range of destructive Iranian behavior. In recent weeks, the Islamic Republic has initiated major new procurement talks with arms suppliers such as Russia and China, conducted a high-profile ballistic-missile test in violation of U.N. Security Council resolutions, and significantly expanded its military footprint in Syria. This adventurism, moreover, is poised to become more pronounced in the weeks and months ahead, as the economic benefits of the nuclear deal begin to kick in in earnest. Given the foregoing, U.S. policymakers need to begin thinking about the vulnerabilities that are likely to result from the agreement with Iran, as well as steps they can take in order to mitigate them. These fall into four broad categories." http://t.uani.com/1KCQVAK Ali Alfoneh in The Arab Weekly: "The October 7th death of Brigadier-General Hossein Hamedani, the most senior Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) commander killed in the Syrian war, underlines Iran's growing military involvement in the conflict. This has taken place in tandem with Russia's military interven­tion, a major build-up by the two powers that are the most impor­tant allies of Syrian President Bashar Assad's embattled regime and one that was planned several months ago. The most important aspect of the Iranian deployment is that it involves regular IRGC ground troops rather than just units of the IRGC's expeditionary wing, al-Quds Force. This marks a much more extensive deployment by the Tehran regime, which has strate­gic interests in keeping Assad in power and demonstrated Tehran's concern that the Damascus regime had been near collapse, unable to replace heavy combat losses, defections and draft-dodging. This trend is illustrated by the growing death toll among Iranian forces and field commanders. Hamedani, for instance, was not an al-Quds Force commander but a senior officer in the IRGC's regular ground forces. Most remarkably, Hamedani, in his capacity as commander of the Mohammad Rasoul-Allah Division, which is responsible for security in Greater Tehran province, sup­pressed the widespread anti-government rallies in the capital following the June 2009 presiden­tial election that was widely seen as fraudulent. According to IRGC commander Major-General Mohammad-Ali Jafari, it was that experience that qualified Hamedani for 'voluntar­ily moving to the region in 2011' to advise the Syrian government when protests against Assad erupted. It was during Hamedani's watch that the Basij organised its so-called Imam Hossein brigades with the primary mission of subduing urban unrest and anti-government rallies. Jafari disclosed that in Syria Hamedani organised similar 'people's armies' to try to ensure the survival of the regime. In other words, Hamedani had a solid record in the IRGC's ground forces, had never served in IRGC al-Quds Force prior to his mission in Syria in 2011 but was the highest ranking IRGC field commander in that country. The full extent of the IRGC ground forces involvement in Syria is not known following persistent reports that hundreds, and pos­sibly thousands, of Iranian troops have been sent to Syria. Tehran has made no announce­ment on this issue and it has every reason to play down Iran's mount­ing losses in a civil war in which it claims it is not directly involved. However, a survey of 137 identified Iranian citizens killed in combat in Syria since January 2013 shows an increasing number of IRGC ground force commanders... The pattern in IRGC fatalities provides indications of a new Ira­nian military deployment in Syria. Al-Quds Force, the IRGC's expeditionary arm, which is ac­tive in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and elsewhere, is relatively small - about 15,000 men. In the wake of mounting al-Quds Force casualties in regional conflicts, the IRGC has had to deploy its regular Ground Forces to Syria to bolster al-Quds Force contingent. This emerging deployment pat­tern in turn is rapidly changing the characteristics of the IRGC itself as it blurs the differences between the missions of the IRGC's ground forces, whose primary task is to protect the Iranian homeland against external enemies and the regime against domestic oppo­nents, and that of the Quds Force, which handles operations, invari­ably clandestine in nature, outside Iran. This means that, in effect, the Syrian war is transforming the entire IRGC into an expedition­ary force. This is likely to increase IRGC military interventions in the Middle East in the future and suggests that more Iranian forces could be deployed in Syria." http://t.uani.com/1O3rMqB           Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. 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