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Reuters: "Iranian President Hassan
Rouhani flew to Italy on Monday at the start of his first official
visit to Europe, looking to sign multi-billion dollar contracts to help
to modernize Iran's economy after years of crippling financial
sanctions. Heading a 120-strong delegation of Iranian business leaders
and ministers, Rouhani will spend two days in Rome before flying to
France on Wednesday, hoping to burnish Tehran's international
credentials at a time of turmoil across the Middle East. While
diplomacy will figure high on his agenda, trade ties are likely to
dominate the headlines, with Iran announcing plans to buy more than 160
European planes, mainly from Airbus, on the eve of Rouhani's departure.
Officials in Rome said Italian companies were poised to sign deals
worth up to 17 billion euros ($18.4 billion) over the next two days,
including in the energy and steel sectors... During his visit to Italy,
he will meet Renzi, Pope Francis and local business leaders. He is set
to meet French President Francois Hollande in Paris on Thursday. 'This
is a very important visit,' said a senior Iranian official. 'It's time
to turn the page and open the door to cooperation between our countries
in different areas.' However, wherever he goes, he is likely to hear
condemnation of his country's human rights record, with Iranian
opponents planning a major rally in Paris on Thursday." http://t.uani.com/1Tk1a5J
Fars
(Iran):
"Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyed Ali
Khamenei in a meeting with the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC)
Navy unit that detained the 10 US marines who violated Iran's maritime
borders in the Persian Gulf earlier this month praised their brave and
swift reaction to the incident. 'You did an excellent job, which was an
interesting and swift action,' Ayatollah Khamenei said at the meeting
with the IRGC Navy forces behind the January 12 operation. 'Certainly,
it was the divine job that sent the Americans straying into our
territorial waters only to be promptly captured with their hands behind
their heads,' Ayatollah Khamenei added. At the meeting, the Iranian
Supreme Leader expressed admiration for the move, describing it as a
'courageous' action that resulted from the the 'strong faith' of the
IRGC forces." http://t.uani.com/1ZNtZHD
Guardian: "A week after the lifting of
sanctions against Iran, major European banks are still reluctant to
handle Iranian payments as they remain wary of being the first to test
the reaction of US authorities. Despite guidance issued by the US
treasury aimed at reassuring Europe that it was permissible to do
business with Iran, excluding a number of entities and individuals that
remain blacklisted, the continent's big banks still err on the side of
caution. The Guardian approached 10 banks this week to see if they would
process Iranian payments. The majority were unwilling to disclose
whether they had plans to deal with Iran, a few said there was no
change in their existing policy, and the London-based Standard
Chartered, which was fined £400m by the US authorities in 2012, issued
a statement to make clear it was not dealing with anyone or any entity
that had anything to do with Iran. This contrasts with the desire of
European companies and European governments to increase trade with Iran
from the current €7.6bn (£5.8bn) to the pre-sanctions figure of almost
€28bn... 'I am yet to find one tier-one European investment bank that
wants to go back into Iran,' said a senior European banker who did not
want to be named. Sanctions compliance departments in big banks are
busy digesting a 50-page guidance provided by the US treasury's office
of foreign assets control (OFAC) - some say the text is so complicated
it may deter businesses from returning to Iran, while others fear it
may be open to interpretation... Banks are particularly worried about
US primary sanctions related to terrorism and human rights violations
that remain in place. 'We know the Iranian Revolutionary Guards (IRGC)
are sanctioned as a terrorist entity. They own a vast amount of economy
through bonyads [trusts], ownership schemes which we can't fathom, so
it's very difficult to operate in Iran without hitting the
Revolutionary Guards or somebody else who is sanctioned by the
Americans, and you are extra-territorially sanctioned by the Americans
if you do deals with IRGC-linked elements,' the senior banker
said. 'Moreover, the FATF [an inter-governmental body combating
money laundering and terrorist financing] stills views Iran as a
non-compliant jurisdiction of money laundering, as we all know
corruption is rampant, so it's not just worth the candle at the
moment.' Citing the case of BNP Paribas, which was heavily fined last
year over sanctions violations involving Iran, the senior banker said
European banks were worried that the US could ban them from dollars in
the US capital market. 'Sanctions are still in place in the US really.
It's only nuclear-related sanctions that have been relaxed, even if you
even open an office in Tehran and you're using Microsoft operating
system, you can still be in trouble,' said the banker. 'It's not just
OFAC, you've got other regulatory authorities in the US, which are not
as transparent about their guidelines, particularly New York department
of financial services, which doesn't offer FAQs and won't meet
non-American entities to discuss issues about sanctions. You've got the
Federal Reserve, you've got a lot of agencies out there which can
punish you for the same offence, so it's not just OFAC. 'There's also a
reputational risk, whoever goes in first they're going to be watched like
a hawk by those who oppose the deal, the Israelis, Saudi Arabians,
Republican American entities,' the banker said, saying that his bank
was particularly under pressure from the US pro-Israel lobby, AIPAC. 'I
can't see any movement for at least six to 12 months.' ... Emil Dall,
an analyst at the Royal United Services Institute who has read the
guidance, said European companies still fear being caught up in what
remains a complex US sanctions web. He said while the US treasury has
offered substantial clarifications, they reveal a number of possible
practical complications for EU companies... 'All of the clarifications
provided by the US and EU authorities make one thing clear: companies
looking to re-engage with Iran face a monumental due diligence task in ensuring
that their Iranian business does not have a sanctioned
beneficiary.'" http://t.uani.com/1nKaPGH
Nuclear
Program & Agreement
Tasnim
(Iran):
"Iranian President Hassan Rouhani on Thursday hailed as 'one of
Iran's biggest successes' the nuclear deal with world powers whose
implementation started a few days ago, saying that the country managed
to achieve all of its major goals in the JCPOA. 'The success of the
Iranian nation in this case was one of the biggest achievements of not
only the Islamic Iran, but also all developing countries, against big
powers,' Rouhani said in an address to a conference here in Tehran.
'Given the termination of anti-Iran sanctions, we achieved all of our
main objectives in the nuclear negotiations almost without any
exception,' the Iranian president added. In this significant national
and international case, all of Iran's long-term and main goals had to
be met and were met, Rouhani said, stressing that the termination of
nuclear-related sanctions and UNSC resolutions were among Iran's main
demands in these talks. 'The negotiations bore fruit after 30 months of
tough talks,' he noted, adding that he was close to order the cessation
of negotiations three times." http://t.uani.com/1OSFpEO
U.S.-Iran
Relations
AP: "The Obama administration's
$1.7 billion payment to Iran to settle an arcane, decades-old financial
dispute is prompting questions among Republican lawmakers trying to
piece together the full scope of last weekend's dramatic U.S.-Iranian
prisoner swap and the lifting of many American sanctions on Tehran. The
announcement's timing, just after confirmation that three Americans
left Iranian airspace, is leading to calls for investigations and
shedding light on a little-known fund that the president can dip into
when he wants to resolve international financial disputes. Legislative efforts
are already afoot to curtail that ability. U.S. officials deny claims
that the payment was a bribe to ensure the release of a total of five
Americans traded for the freedom of seven people in legal trouble in
the U.S. over business deals with Iran. Sunday's financial settlement
between Washington and Tehran was largely lost amid U.S. elation over
the release of the Americans and global interest in the latest
benchmark in Iran's nuclear transformation... The administration said
the settlement was decided on its merits, with officials arguing that
Iran demanded more than $3 billion and, at some points during the
talks, much more for an agreement. Earlier this week, however, one
Iranian military commander painted the payment in a different light.
Mohammad Reza Naghdi, head of the Basij paramilitary wing of the
powerful Revolutionary Guards, said the wiring of the funds was a
payoff for letting the Americans go. U.S. officials insist that's not
true. 'There was no bribe, there was no ransom, there was nothing paid
to secure the return of these Americans who were, by the way, not
spies,' State Department spokesman Mark Toner responded, referring to
the charges that held each of the Americans in Iranian prison for
years... In explaining his rationale last weekend, President Barack
Obama said the settlement 'could save us billions of dollars that could
have been pursued by Iran. So there was no benefit to the United States
in dragging this out. With the nuclear deal done, prisoners released,
the time was right to resolve this dispute as well.' Obama's aides have
insisted the deal was entirely separate, but U.S. officials acknowledge
the claims and prisoner negotiations crossed over at times. Although
the matter surfaced in a number of exchanges over the years, talks on
the money only gained speed during the last year or so of contacts
between the Americans and Iranians focused on the prisoner swap,
officials familiar with the process said. They weren't authorized to
speak publicly on the matter and demanded anonymity. Lawmakers want
more information. Rep. Mike Pompeo, R-Kan., is seeking an
investigation. The GOP-led House Foreign Affairs Committee has asked
congressional researchers to look into the matter. And Sen. Jerry
Moran, R-Kan., has introduced legislation in the Senate that would
limit Obama's ability to transfer funds to Iran, which could affect
other, lingering financial disagreements between the two
countries." http://t.uani.com/1KzOiRJ
NYT: "When the United States and
Iran swapped prisoners last week, nothing was said to resolve the
mystery about another captive: Robert A. Levinson, a Central
Intelligence Agency consultant who disappeared in Iran in 2007. Iranian
leaders have long said that they knew nothing about the missing
American, and United States officials have said that he may no longer
be in Iran - or even still alive. Aside from a hostage video and
photographs of him in an orange jumpsuit five years ago, there had been
no public clues about his fate. But newly disclosed documents suggest
that Iranian officials knew far more about Mr. Levinson. In late 2011,
a top Iranian diplomat acknowledged that his country was holding the
American and would release him if the United States helped delay an
assessment criticizing Iran's nuclear activities, the documents say.
Iran's ambassador to France at the time, Seyed Mehdi Miraboutalebi,
made the statement during a private gathering at his Paris residence
with two men working with an American religious organization, according
to a report about the session... 'The Ambassador made it clear that
they have Robert Levinson and that they are willing to release him
without conditions,' said the report, which was sent to the F.B.I. in
October 2011. 'They do, however, want tangible, symbolic assurances
that the messages they are sending have been received at the highest
levels.' Iranian officials maintained that they did not know Mr.
Levinson's whereabouts or status during recent negotiations that
resulted in the prisoner exchange last week. The Obama administration
has never challenged Iran's position, but law enforcement officials say
they believe that factions tied to that country's intelligence,
political or religious leadership were involved in his capture and
detention... The events surrounding the Paris meeting and documents
containing Mr. Miraboutalebi's statements are drawn from a forthcoming
book about Mr. Levinson and the search for him." http://t.uani.com/1WJZ7b2
IRNA
(Iran): "A
senior military commander said Iran's armed forces will give a
devastating response to any possible aggression against the country...
Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC)
Brigadier General Hossein Salami made the remarks in a TV program.
Elaborating on the issue of the American sailors that entered Iran's
territorial waters recently and were arrested by the IRGC forces, the
commander said the issue showed Iran's power worldwide. 'They did not
enter the Iranian waters on purpose, but such an event happened at a
proper time when it was needed the big idol to be broken,' said the
commander." http://t.uani.com/1nu8Zdj
Fars
(Iran):
"Lieutenant Commander of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps
(IRGC) Brigadier General Hossein Salami said Iran can hit enemy targets
anywhere in the region with its sophisticated missile defense
batteries. 'We can target enemy bases anywhere in the region with
ease,' Salami said in an interview with the state-run TV on Saturday.
He went on to say that, together with other armed forces, the IRGC is a
force to be reckoned with, always playing a dominant backup role in
international diplomacy. Salami said Iran's missile defense systems are
for deterrence against the United States and Israel. The General
reiterated that Iran will continue to play a central role in the fight
against terrorism and extremism in the region, particularly in Syria.
The IRGC commander had earlier said that the country has boosted its
missile capabilities in the shortest time possible to increase its
effective deterrent power. 'The expansion of Iran's military power has
raced up and is now making progress at a high speed, meaning that
today, we are able to hit all the vital interests of the enemies at any
point in the region,' he added." http://t.uani.com/1WKgWXw
Fars
(Iran):
"Several US fighter jets rushed to the skies near Iran's Farsi
Island in the Persian Gulf after Iran capture the 10 US marines earlier
this month, but left the region after receiving a tough warning from
Iran, Commander of Khatam ol-Anbia Air Defense Base Brigadier General
Farzad Esmayeeli said. 'When the US forces (marines) were captured by
the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) on Farsi island, the US
fighters rushed to fly over (the island),' Esmayeeli said, addressing a
ceremony in the Northern province of Gilan. 'But we warned them that if
they approached Iran, we would bring them the hell fire (and they left
the region),' he added." http://t.uani.com/1WKfSCL
IranWire: "'Yes, he left Iran.' This
was the sentence we have been waiting for for the last seven days, in
order to bring you this story. Nosratollah Khosravi-Roodsari, also
known as Farzad or Fred Khosravi, has left Iran. He is now somewhere in
the sky between Iran, his country of birth where he was in prison for
almost a year, and the United States, which released seven Iranian
prisoners in exchange for Khosravi and three other Iranian-American
prisoners. Khosravi has become known as the fourth Iranian-American prisoner
released from Iran on January 16, and the mysterious one who didn't
want to leave Iran with the others on the Swiss airplane. So who is
this mysterious man? Journalists flocked to social media to see what
they could find out. He doesn't have a Facebook page or a Twitter
account. There was no information available about his arrest or the
charges against him. All the American authorities said was that he was
an American citizen arrested in Iran. It was only by chance that one of
IranWire's occasional contributors told us that Khosravi's former
cellmate had expressed his joy at Khosravi's release in a Facebook
post. The cellmate does not want to be identified, and has since
removed the post. Khosravi's tale, as told to us by the cellmate and a
family member, is bizarre yet typical of many Iranian prisoners who
have been arrested by a paranoid government on security charges. We
have not been able to speak with Khosravi, but the following details
have been confirmed by three independent sources." http://t.uani.com/1OJNsWA
Sanctions
Relief
Reuters: "Iran unveiled an expanded
shopping list for more than 160 European planes - including 8
superjumbos - and dangled another big order in front of Boeing (BA.N)
at Tehran's first major post-sanctions business gathering on Sunday. In
a sign of Tehran's determination to compete with established carriers
across the Gulf, Transport Minister Abbas Akhoondi said Iran's emergence
from isolation would restore a 'natural balance' in the region and
urged foreigners to invest. 'I hold your hands in friendship,' he told
an audience of 300 airlines, suppliers, lessors and bankers at an
aviation conference in Tehran... A stampede of investors at the CAPA
Iran Aviation Summit illustrated the potential for suppliers to Iran at
a time when the industry faces concerns over the global economy... The
number of potential plane orders rose during the first day of the
conference, with a senior official telling delegates that Iran was
closing on a deal for 127 jets from Airbus, compared with earlier
estimates of 114 aircraft. Added to the growing list were 40 European
ATR turboprops. Deputy Transport Minister Asghar Fakhrieh Kashan told
Reuters that Iran had provisionally agreed to buy eight Airbus A380
superjumbos, to be delivered from 2019. It also intends to buy 16
A350s, Europe's newest long-distance jetliner, he said. Another Iranian
official said the talks, which appear to have accelerated as President
Hassan Rouhani prepares to visit Europe this week, included about 45
short-haul A320s and as many as 40 of its A330 wide-body jets...
Delegates said Sunday's barrage of announcements appeared designed not
only to underscore Iran's economic potential but also to encourage U.S.
planemaker Boeing, whose executives were absent from the Tehran
conference, to enter formal negotiations. Kashan told Reuters that Iran
was ready to buy at least 100 jets from the world's largest
planemaker." http://t.uani.com/1QnYtNS
NYT: "Airbus confirmed on Monday
that it was poised to begin negotiations with Iran for the sale of
dozens of new commercial aircraft, part of a raft of international
business that is expected to flow toward Tehran since it agreed to
curtail its nuclear ambitions and crippling economic sanctions were
lifted. 'We have listened to the Iranians, and we are ready to engage
in commercial negotiations,' said Stefan Schaffrath, an Airbus
spokesman in Toulouse, France. The remarks came hours after Iranian
officials told journalists at a gathering of aviation industry
executives in Tehran that Iran was looking to place orders for more
than 100 European-made aircraft, ranging from 100-seat turboprops to
the 555-seat twin-deck Airbus A380 superjumbo. 'We have been
negotiating for 10 months' for the purchase of planes, but 'there was
no way to pay for them because of banking sanctions,' the Iranian state
news media quoted Abba Akhoondi, the country's transportation minister,
as saying. News reports, citing Iranian officials, have indicated that
the orders could include dozens of Airbus's biggest-selling
single-aisle A320 jets, as well as several A330 and A350 widebodies.
The country's flag carrier, Iran Air, is also interested in as many as
eight A380s, the reports said, as well as around 40 regional turboprops
built by ATR, a joint venture between Airbus and Finmeccanica of Italy.
The orders, which are likely to be partly financed with loans from
European export-credit agencies, could be announced as early as this
week in Paris during a visit by the Iranian president, Hassan Rouhani,
Mr. Akhoondi said." http://t.uani.com/1OJSiD6
WSJ: "Boeing Co. could benefit
from a potential bonanza of plane orders from Iran, the country's
transport minister said Sunday, as the Islamic Republic seeks to
upgrade its aging aircraft fleet with deals that could also include
Airbus Group SE A380 superjumbos... 'We are open to buying from
Boeing,' Iranian Transport Minister Abbas Akhoundi said in a brief
interview little more than a week after the U.S. and Western countries
agreed to lift an embargo on aircraft sales to Iran." http://t.uani.com/1OJRQF2
Reuters: "Iran is set to re-engage
with the banking world within weeks as international lenders link up
with their Iranian counterparts using global transaction network SWIFT,
Iran's Middle East Bank and a senior central bank official told Reuters
on Friday... for Iran to resume business with the global banking world
- for the first time since 2012 - its banks need to be linked to
overseas lenders on SWIFT. The system, the Society for the Worldwide
Interbank Financial Telecommunications, is used to transmit payments
and letters of credit. 'We have sent almost 40 SWIFTs to different
banks around the world and we have requested that now that the
sanctions are lifted, we would like to exchange documents and whether
they will consider a correspondent banking relationship,' said Parviz
Aghili, chief executive and managing director of Tehran-based Middle
East Bank. 'Some of them have come back and have asked for various questions,
for documents they need.' 'My feeling is it is going to take a couple
of weeks or so before we start to see proper re-engagement. It will be
slowly, slowly,' he said in an interview. Aghili said other Iranian
banks were in the same situation regarding SWIFT as his company, which
is listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange and has total assets of around
$1 billion. A senior official with Iran's central bank also told
Reuters the transaction links would soon be restored. 'Really, it is a
matter of just a few weeks, less than a month. Because all of our
banks, whether private or state-owned banks, have taken the necessary
bureaucratic steps, regarding rejoining the SWIFT system,' the official
said on Friday... Aghili added: 'SWIFT has been turned on - it has always
been on. The main issue has been we did not have proper correspondent
banking relationships with so many banks around the world and because
of sanctions, our SWIFTs remained unanswered.' ... The Iranian central
bank official said banks from European countries including Germany,
France, Britain and Italy, had been in talks to open branches after the
lifting of sanctions. 'God willing, soon we will witness that too. Iran
is a very attractive market for business and they know that,' the
official said. By contrast, Aghili said he expected bigger banks to
wait at least six to 12 months before they would look at doing serious
business in the country. 'The smaller banks who do not have that
involvement in the U.S. market will be prepared to work with Iranian
banks,' Aghili said. 'But even these smaller banks expect proper
anti-money laundering checks and they have to check it and they will
also require counter-parties to check it.'" http://t.uani.com/1QnSzfv
AFP: "Iran will probably sign
contracts with automakers Peugeot and Renault, President Hassan Rouhani
said Monday as he headed to Europe seeking to capitalize on Tehran's
nuclear deal with world powers. 'Important contracts will probably be
signed on this trip including with Peugeot and Renault,' Rouhani told
reporters at Mehrabad Airport before leaving Tehran, according to state
television's website... A large delegation of 100 political and
economic leaders, including the ministers of oil, transport, industry
and health will accompany the president. 'We need to modernize our
aviation fleet and buy locomotives,' the Iranian president said." http://t.uani.com/23o8qlA
FT: "A senior Italian official
said companies in Italy would sign about €17bn worth of deals when Mr
Rouhani comes to Rome on Monday on the first leg of his European tour.
Among the beneficiaries would be pipeline company Saipem with €5bn in
contracts, as well as Danieli, a supplier to the metals industry,
Condotte, a water infrastructure company, and Coet, a construction
company. Shipbuilders Gavio and Fincantieri were also set to sign
deals, the official said... The Italian official said the agreements to
be signed on Monday were 'just the beginning' and top executives from
several other large Italian companies, such as Eni, Enel, Finmeccanica
and Ferrovie dello Stato, would also participate in the meetings in
Rome to iron out potential deals." http://t.uani.com/1KzWt0h
WSJ: "Greece's largest refinery
Hellenic Petroleum has agreed to buy oil from the National Iranian Oil
Co., marking the first sale of Iranian crude to a European country
since the lifting of trade sanctions against the Middle Eastern nation.
Hellenic Petroleum said late Friday that the two sides have 'reached a
long-term agreement,' with deliveries to start immediately. The deal
comes after Greek and Iranian officials met in Athens on Friday to
discuss energy issues. After the meeting with Iran's deputy petroleum
minister Amir-Hossein Zamaninia, Greek Energy Minister Panos Skourletis
said the two sides discussed a series of issues including oil supplies,
natural gas and renewable energy. Hellenic Petroleum is estimated to
owe Iran around €500 million to €600 million ($541 million-$650
million), analysts say, for oil it bought before sanctions were imposed
in 2011, but hasn't repaid because of the embargo. The agreement also
allows for the settlement of this amount, Hellenic Petroleum
added." http://t.uani.com/1JxSYNg
Press
TV (Iran):
"Iran says it has signed a deal with Russia's Lukoil over two
exploration projects in the country's southwestern oil-rich Khouzestan
province. Hormoz Qalavand, the director for exploration affairs of the
National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC), has been quoted by the media as
saying that Lukoil is to look for hydrocarbon reserves in Dasht-e
Abadan and the northern parts of the Persian Gulf. Qalavand added that
the value of the contract is about $6 million, stressing that the Russian
company has already started the work over the projects. It will
also take care of all the costs in both projects, the official added.
The Russian company and Norway's Statoil had won a deal to launch
exploration operations in Anaran block in western Iran in 2003. Lukoil
held a stake of 25 percent in the consortium and the remaining stakes
belonged to Statoil. Their operations led to the discovery of oil in
Azar and Changuleh fields in 2005. However, both had to pull out from
Iran in 2011 after the US and Europeans intensified sanctions on Iran.
In December 2015, Lukoil President Vagit Alekperov was quoted by the
media as saying that he had discussed the prospects for the company to
return to Iran to develop Azar oil field. To the same effect, the
company reopened its office in Tehran, with its first vice president
Ravil Maganov saying the company looked forward to participating in
Iranian energy projects. Maganov said Azar would be Lukoil's primary
focus but the company was studying geological data from other projects
as well." http://t.uani.com/1lKzCca
NYT: "Mr. Li is one of many
Chinese investors who in recent years worked around the sanctions
imposed on Iran by the United States and other world powers over
Tehran's nuclear program. His steel mill and other similar endeavors
are the result of a strategic pact that gives China a much-needed
western gateway to Middle Eastern markets and beyond, and that has saved
Iran from international isolation and economic ruin. On Saturday, both
countries agreed to increase trade to $600 billion in the coming
decade. That agreement was made during a meeting between Iran's leaders
and China's president, Xi Jinping, who late last week became the first
foreign leader to visit Iran after most international sanctions were
lifted. 'Where we had to stand on the sidelines, the Chinese have been
filling the void,' said a European diplomat who spoke on the condition
of anonymity to discuss strategic considerations. 'They are way ahead
of all of us.' ... 'Westerners visiting the capital often wonder how we
managed to pull off such ambitious projects during the heaviest
sanction regime in history,' said Mohammad Reza Sabzalipour, Iran's World
Trade Center representative. 'Well, we did it with the help of our
Chinese friends.' ... 'We are Iran's biggest trading partner for six
years in a row,' Mr. Xi wrote in an open letter to the Iranian people,
Xinhua, China's state news agency, reported on Thursday, a day before
his arrival on a Middle East tour that will also take him to Saudi
Arabia and Egypt... In the last decade, trade started gravitating
toward China and away from Germany, Iran's traditional partner, with a
business volume of more than $30 billion annually. Iran exported $19
billion in crude oil and petrochemical products and imported $17
billion in goods and services in 2013... On Saturday, the Chinese
president sat down with Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei,
who told him that 'Iranians had never trusted the West.' That was why
Iran was seeking more cooperation with independent countries, Ayatollah
Khamenei said, clearly indicating China." http://t.uani.com/1OS1uTX
Reuters: "For some foreign companies,
it has been a waiting game. They stayed in Iran when the sanctions hit
and, like Fanaei in Qatar, put up with the bad times in the hope that
the good times would eventually return. Landi Renzo, an Italian
producer of autogas and compressed natural gas kits for cars, saw
annual revenues in Iran sink from about 35 million euros to about 3
million when sanctions hit, said Pierpaolo Marziali, the firm's head of
mergers and acquisitions. There were no Western banks ready to offer
guarantees and letters of credit, and the sharp decline of Iran's
currency under sanctions made matters worse. 'But we stayed the course
and never stopped producing, albeit at minimal levels, and that's put
us in a strong position now since we have a kind of preferential
channel. Our staff is regularly in Tehran and we're looking forward to
relaunching production,' Marziali said. Another Italian company that
stuck it out was SABAF, which makes components for household cooking
appliances, although its annual sales in Iran fell from about 10
billion euros to around 3 million, Administrative Director Gianluca
Beschi said. 'We've already started talks in the country and we hope to
be able to boost our sales in 2016 to get back to pre-sanction times,'
she said. Italy hopes its trade with Iran will now surge and sees the
best opportunities in oil and gas, cars and transport, and construction
and furniture. But China, India, Russia and Brazil have kept or gained
a foothold in Iran since sanctions were imposed, and Beijing is the top
exporter to Tehran. For some companies, the race has already
begun." http://t.uani.com/20oQ01z
WSJ: "Business ties between
Iranian and foreign business are returning to normal after nuclear
sanctions on Iran were lifted, even as the Islamic Republic works on
having other sanctions removed, the country's deputy foreign minister
Seyyed Abbas Araghchi said on Monday. 'Things are gradually moving
toward normalization of business between Iranian entities and foreign
entities,' Mr. Araghchi told reporters, a little more than a week after
Iran and western countries agreed to lift sanctions on the country... 'Iranian
banks have already started to contact their counterparts trying to
establish their connections,' Mr. Araghchi, the foreign ministry's
deputy minister for legal and international affairs, said...
Re-establishing business ties hasn't been straight forward. 'There are
some technical problems' working the U.S. Treaty Department's Office of
Foreign Assets Control, which enforces sanctions, Mr. Araghchi said.
Those include the organization not providing companies necessary
guidance to do deals, or what he described as a misinterpretation of
the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action that governs the nuclear accord.
Mr. Araghchi, who wouldn't provide specific examples of such problems,
described them as 'natural technical problems' that were to be
expected. 'We have seen good faith in all parties to address all these
problems,' he said, adding that removing restrictions should be a short
process." http://t.uani.com/1RIBujF
Reuters: "Global insurance firms are
circling Iran for business opportunities following the lifting of
sanctions - and the first test of their appetite could come in March
when some Iranian companies seek new cover. Insurers, the reinsurers
that share their risk and the brokers that forge deals are exploring
ways to tap a market worth $7.4 billion in premiums after a nuclear
accord between world powers and Tehran led to the removal of
restrictions on financial dealings with Iran this month. Allianz, Zurich
Insurance, Hannover Re and RSA, for example, said in recent days that
they would evaluate potential opportunities in the country. Insurance
and reinsurance specialists regard the marine and energy sectors as
among those offering the best opportunities in oil-producing Iran.
Alongside commercial cover, life insurance is a potential growth area
as it represents less than a tenth of overall Iranian premiums,
compared with more than half globally. At first international companies
are likely to link up with Iranian firms to capitalize on their local
knowledge and to reinsure local insurance in the international market,
according to industry experts, with international brokers helping
foreign firms get that business... London-headquartered United Insurance
Brokers (UIB) said it was active in Iranian reinsurance before the
imposition of international sanctions and planned to reopen its Tehran
office 'as soon as we can', according to chairman Bassem Kabban. 'Under
the sanctions we ceased to operate, but we have maintained the salaries
of our people there for the past five-and-a-half years,' said Kabban,
adding that firms could be wary due to concerns about having U.S.
shareholders or subsidiaries." http://t.uani.com/1nu1XVM
Reuters: "Taiwan's refiners will
increase crude imports from Iran this year, company spokesmen said on
Monday, paving the way for the sanctions-hit OPEC producer to regain
its market share in Asia. The companies are likely to be among the
first in Asia to restart trade relations with Iran after the lifting of
international sanctions. Refiners CPC Corp and Formosa Petrochemical
will resume imports, bringing them back to contractual volumes that had
been previously agreed with the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC), the
spokesmen said. 'We will purchase 2 million barrels of crude oil from
Iran at the end of March or early April,' CPC's spokesman Ray-Chung
Chang told Reuters. 'It will be the first (Iranian) cargo for us this
year.' Formosa Petrochemical spokesman KY Lin said the company was
waiting for a green light from local authorities, but that it did not
expect any more restrictions on Iranian crude imports. 'We have already
agreed (with NIOC) on a volume late last year in anticipation of the
lifting of the sanctions,' he said. 'It's a continuation of our
contract.' Prior to the sanctions, Taiwan imported close to 60,000
barrels per day (bpd) of Iranian crude in 2010, but the volume dwindled
to an all-time low of 3,600 bpd in 2014... Last year, the two Taiwanese
refiners imported just 2 million barrels each, customs data
showed." http://t.uani.com/1S619U2
The
Hindu Business Line:
"With the lifting of trade sanctions, India has come 'under
pressure' from Iran to complete the Chabahar Port project. Meanwhile,
both sides have also arrived at a deadline to complete the talks on LNG
terminal. 'Now we are under pressure to complete the Chabahar project.
It has to be done by the first half of this year,' a top official,
involved in the talks told BusinessLine. The first phase of the
$31-billion Chabahar Port project involves construction and operation
of two berths there. In the second phase, India is eyeing the
participation of private players - Jindal Infrastructures, Essar, SAIL
and IRCON - to develop the area around the port which involves
developing a free trade zone and a railway line connecting Afghanistan
and the Central Asian region. Apparently, Iran had asked India to speed
up the work at Chabahar Port during the 18th session of the India-Iran
Joint Commission (JCM) that took place last month. It was co-chaired by
External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj and Iran's Minister of Economic
Affairs and Finance Ali Tayebnia. Apart from this, India is also now
speeding up talks for picking up stake in Iran LNG Terminal. After
discussions, both sides have decided to complete the talks by February
6 with a one-month grace period. ONGC Videsh Ltd just held a meeting
with the Iranian authorities last week, the official said. The Iran LNG
project is located at Tombak Port in southern Iran, which includes an
LNG plant with storage and loading facilities." http://t.uani.com/1nK6SBW
WSJ: "A sleepy, coral-rimmed
island peeking out of the Persian Gulf is setting its sights on
becoming the next Dubai, a freewheeling entrepôt where foreigners and
locals can do business free of taxes, bureaucratic hassles and security
concerns. The challenge for Kish Island: It is in Iran and best known
in the West as the place where Federal Bureau of Investigation agent
Robert Levinson disappeared in 2007 while looking into cigarette
smuggling. Iran's deepening rift with Saudi Arabia and other Arab
countries, which recently severed or downgraded ties to their regional
rival, also threatens to choke off efforts to end Iran's economic
isolation. Still, Kish officials, encouraged by a reformist government
and the lifting of sanctions starting last Saturday see the island as a
way of changing the country's rogue image: The tax- and visa-free Kish
is now being positioned as a launchpad into Iran, much as Hong Kong was
used for China when it opened up to the world." http://t.uani.com/1KzHpzU
FT: "Griffon Capital - an
Iran-focused asset management and private equity group established in
2014 - launched a general equity fund on Monday to attract foreign
capital to pick the first fruits of the post-sanctions era. Focusing on
listed securities, the Griffon Iran Flagship Fund is the second of its
kind. It aims to attract €100m this year at the Tehran Stock Exchange
and Iran Fara Bourse - the over-the-counter market. Homan Harandian,
CEO of Griffon Capital said the potential to attract foreign investment
was high in Iran's capital market. 'There is room for many more
companies like ours,' he said. Charlemagne Capital, a UK asset manager
focused on emerging markets, and Turquoise Partners, a Tehran-based
investment, brokerage and advisory firm, launched a similar fund last
year with $70m under management initially... Now that many sanctions
are removed, Iranian analysts insist, the capital market is a natural
destination for European, Asian and Arab investors thanks to its more
transparent regulations compared with others parts of Iran's economy.
The stock exchange has welcomed the agreement. The TSE's main index
experienced a quick recovery last week after implementation of the nuclear
agreement was announced, growing from about 63,500 to more than 66,000
after four months of fluctuations below the 63,000 level." http://t.uani.com/23o2GrK
Bloomberg: "Iran Air needs to buy at
least 20 regional jets as it upgrades its fleet now that economic
sanctions on the nation have been lifted, and Bombardier Inc. has
already made a presentation to the carrier, Chairman and Managing
Director Farhad Parvaresh said. The airline intends to add 50- and
100-seat planes to its regional service to complement a main-jet fleet
that will include Boeing Co. and Airbus Group SE planes, Parvaresh said
in an interview in Tehran at the Iran Aviation Summit. Bombardier still
needs approvals from Canada to operate in Iran, he said. The carrier
estimates it will spend $3 billion on aircraft purchases, he said,
without giving a timetable. In all, Iran plans to spend $5 billion on
aircraft, he added." http://t.uani.com/1JxSHtq
Reuters: "AirAsiaX, the long haul
subsidiary of Malaysia's AirAsia, said on Monday it was looking at
restoring flights to Tehran, describing Iran as a 'massive'
opportunity, and planned to resume services to London and Paris if
costs made sense. Speaking at the CAPA Iran Aviation Summit in the
Iranian capital, Chief Executive Benyamin Bin Ismail said: 'We flew to
Tehran in the past but had to stop due to sanctions. We are looking to
come back and are exploring it again.' '(AirAsia co-founder) Tony
(Fernandes) sees markets like this as an opportunity...I think Iran is
going to be massive for us,' Bin Ismail said." http://t.uani.com/1nJXa2d
Iraq
Crisis
Reuters: "Iraqi Shi'ite Muslim
lawmakers on Sunday accused the new Saudi ambassador of meddling in
domestic affairs after he said the presence of Iranian-backed Shi'ite
militias in the fight against Islamic State was exacerbating sectarian
tensions in Iraq. Enmity between Sunni and Shi'ite Muslims in the
Middle East is at its worst in years as regional conflicts in Syria,
Iraq and Yemen deepen long-standing rifts. Saudi Arabia, a conservative
Sunni kingdom, executed a prominent Shi'ite cleric this month,
infuriating Shi'ites around the region and arch foe Iran. In an
interview with Iraq's al-Sumaria TV on Saturday, Saudi Ambassador
Thamer al-Sabhan said the Hashid Shaabi, a coalition of mostly
Iranian-backed Shi'ite paramilitary groups set up in 2014 to fight
Islamic State, should leave the fight against the militants to Iraq's
army and official security forces in order to avoid aggravating
sectarian tensions. The reopening in December of the Saudi embassy in
Baghdad, closed in 1990 after Iraq invaded Kuwait, was seen as
heralding closer cooperation in the fight against Islamic State, which
controls territory in Iraq and in Syria and has claimed bombings in
Saudi Arabia." http://t.uani.com/1SHcvgL
Human
Rights
HRW: "Serious electoral flaws are
restricting the rights of Iranians to run for office and damaging
prospects for free and fair parliamentary elections on February 26,
2016. The Iranian authorities have disqualified the majority of reform
candidates based on discriminatory and arbitrary criteria. And dozens
of political activists and journalists remain in prison for exercising
their rights. 'The Iranian electoral system suffers from serious
structural problems that undermine free and fair elections,' said Sarah
Leah Whitson, Middle East director. 'Not only are candidates being
disqualified on the basis of fundamentally flawed laws, but certain
officials arbitrarily act beyond their legal powers to leave virtually
no alternative candidates for people to vote for.' On January 17, the
Guardian Council, an appointed body of 12 Islamic jurists who are in
charge of monitoring Iranian parliamentary and presidential elections,
announced the approved list of candidates. According to the Iranian
state television channel IRIB News, the council approved only about 40
percent of 12,123 registered candidates... 'Iran's electoral system lacks
independent oversight, significantly impairing access to the political
process and citizens' freedom of choice,' Whitson said. 'When the
system scarcely tolerates peaceful dissent even in the electoral
process, the Iranian government robs its own citizens of a voice in
governing their own affairs.'" http://t.uani.com/1ZNamiE
ICHRI: "While expressing joy at
Iran's recent release of four imprisoned Iranian-Americans, Nobel Peace
laureate Shirin Ebadi has called on the Iranian government to 'make
peace with its own people,' now that it has shown the ability to
negotiate and compromise with its adversary, the United States.
'The Iranian government has made peace with a country that was its
enemy for 37 years and I cannot help wonder why it cannot make peace
with its own people' the 2003 Nobel Peace Prize winner said in her
January 18, 2016, open letter to President Hassan Rouhani. 'If the
Supreme National Security Council can release a journalist who has been
taken hostage as sweetness for reconciliation with the US, why can it
not release a university professor and a female artist, such as Zahra
Rahnavard? If the Judiciary can release Saeed Abedini, whose crime was
his religious belief, due to his dual nationality, why does it not take
any action to facilitate the release of Mehdi Karroubi whose only crime
was to protest [the 2009] election's results? If Mr. Zarif could
negotiate with superpowers, such the US, to release some Iranian
businessmen from US prisons, why does he not do the same for prisoners
of the 2009 events?' ... Ebadi criticized President Rouhani's record on
human rights and said in remarks directed at him, 'I am sorry that
other prisoners who only hold Iranian citizenships should remain in
prison. Have you forgotten your oath to preserve the Constitution?
Which political prisoners and prisoners of conscience in Iran have been
tried openly and in the presence of a Jury?' 'I hope the day to make
peace with Iranian people will come soon and on the sweetness of that
day we may witness the release of all political prisoners and prisoners
of conscience in Iran,' she concluded." http://t.uani.com/1SHbLIt
Domestic
Politics
AFP: "Iran has arrested around 100
people over the attack on Saudi Arabia's embassy that led to Riyadh
cutting diplomatic ties with Tehran, a judiciary spokesman said Sunday.
'Since the attack, about 100 people have been arrested, of whom some
have been released,' Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejeie was quoted as saying
by the official IRNA news agency. The ransacking of the embassy earlier
this month 'has been condemned by all authorities and we have taken
immediate and serious action,' he added. One individual was also
arrested 'abroad' and returned to Iran, he said. 'He had given orders
to certain individuals who entered the embassy,' Ejeie added, without
providing further details... The Islamic republic's supreme leader
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Wednesday condemned the attack. 'Like the
British embassy attack before it, this was against the country (Iran)
and Islam, and I didn't like it,' he said, referring to a mob
ransacking Britain's embassy in Tehran in 2011." http://t.uani.com/1TjXQrh
Foreign
Affairs
Reuters: "Iran's Supreme Leader
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Saturday called for closer economic and security
ties with China, saying Iran had never trusted the West, as the two
countries agreed to increase bilateral trade more than 10-fold to $600
billion in the next decade. Iran's most powerful figure told Chinese
President Xi Jinping during a visit Iran wanted to expand ties with
'more independent countries', adding the United States was 'not honest'
in the fight against terrorism in the region. 'Iranians never trusted
the West... That's why Tehran seeks cooperation with more independent
countries (like China),' Khamenei said. 'Iran is the most reliable
country in the region for energy since its energy policies will never
be affected by foreigners,' Khamenei was quoted by his official website
as saying at a meeting with Xi. Xi is the second leader of a U.N.
Security Council member to visit Tehran since the nuclear deal Iran
struck with world powers last year. Russian President Vladimir Putin
visited Tehran in November. Iran emerged from years of economic
isolation this month when the United Nations' nuclear watchdog ruled it
had curbed its nuclear program, clearing the way for the lifting of
U.N., U.S., and European Union sanctions. 'Iran and China have agreed
to increase trade to $600 billion in the next 10 years,' President
Hassan Rouhani said at a news conference with Xi broadcast live on
state television. 'Iran and China have agreed on forming strategic
relations (as) reflected in a 25-year comprehensive document,' he said.
Iran and China signed 17 accords on Saturday, including on cooperation
in nuclear energy and a revival of the ancient Silk Road trade route,
known in China as One Belt, One Road... Khamenei said Iran would never
forget Chinese cooperations during the sanctions. 'The China-Iran
friendship ... has stood the test of the vicissitudes of the international
landscape,' Xi was quoted as saying by China's Xinhua news
agency." http://t.uani.com/1WKkitB
AP: "U.S. Secretary of State John
Kerry met with Gulf Arab officials on Saturday to ease their concerns
about warming U.S.-Iranian ties and seek consensus on which Syrian
opposition groups should be represented at upcoming peace talks. Kerry
and Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir presented a united front when
they spoke at a news conference after a meeting of foreign ministers
from the Gulf Cooperation Council. The Gulf states have sided with the
kingdom in its spat with Iran and backed the rebels fighting to
overthrow Syrian President Bashar Assad, a key ally of the Islamic
Republic. Kerry and al-Jubeir said the U.S. and the GCC agreed on the
need to confront destabilizing Iranian activities in the region and on
an unspecified 'understanding' that will allow the U.N.-led Syria
negotiations to begin next week as planned. 'Let me assure everybody
that the relationship between the United States and the GCC nations is
one that is built on mutual interest, on mutual defense and I think
there is no doubt whatsoever in the minds of the countries that make up
the GCC that the United States will stand with them against any
external threat,' Kerry said. Al-Jubeir denounced Iran for its 'hostile
and aggressive stance' against Arab nations. But he said he did not
believe that Washington would act rashly in dealing with Tehran because
of the nuclear deal just put in place. It has given Tehran access to
billions in formerly frozen assets. 'Overall, the United States is very
aware of the mischief that Iran's nefarious activities can do in the
region,' Jubeir said. 'I don't believe the United States is under any
illusion as to what type of government Iran is.' He criticized Iran for
briefly taking 10 U.S. sailors captive in early January, saying 'normal
countries do not act like this.' He took a swipe at Iran by noting that
in the prisoner swap that resulted in the release of four imprisoned
Americans in Iran, none of the seven Iranians cleared of charges in the
United States opted to return to Iran. It 'tells you what a great country
Iran is that no one wanted to return to it.' Six of the seven are dual
nationals. Kerry avoided such blunt criticism of Iran but stressed that
the U.S. shares concerns about Iran's behavior and will act against it
when necessary, including imposing new sanctions as it did last week in
response to Iranian ballistic missile tests." http://t.uani.com/1nK3wih
Reuters: "Senior Saudi and Iranian
figures clashed behind closed doors at a private meeting convened by
the World Economic Forum in Davos this week to try to promote peace in
Syria, participants said. The barbed exchange between Saudi Prince
Turki al-Faisal and Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif at an
invitation-only meeting on Wednesday underlined the hostility between
the two Gulf rivals, who are waging proxy wars in Syria, Yemen and
Iraq. Riyadh broke off diplomatic relations and cut off trade and
transport ties with Tehran two weeks ago after protesters stormed the
Saudi embassy in Iran. The protests erupted following the Saudi
execution of a leading Shi'ite cleric that outraged predominantly
Shi'ite Iranians... U.N. special envoy on Syria Staffan de Mistura, former
U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan, former Arab League Secretary-General
Amr Moussa of Egypt, the foreign ministers of Italy and Austria and
officials from Turkey and several other Western nations were also
around the table... Zarif said Iran supported a political solution and
had set out a four-point peace plan when it was finally invited to join
international diplomacy on Syria last year. It had been excluded for
years at U.S. and Saudi insistence. Without naming any country, he took
a veiled swipe at Riyadh by condemning those, he said, who fanned and
exploited sectarian differences between Sunni and Shi'ite Muslims
across the region... Prince Turki hit back in the closed session,
blasting Iran's role in the Syria conflict, the participants said. Quoting
an Arabic saying, he told Zarif: 'I really like what you say but when I
look at what you do, I wonder.' Prince Turki, the 70-year-old youngest
son of the late King Faisal, accused Iran of having 10,000 fighters on
the ground in Syria supporting Assad, participants said. He described
the Syrian leader as a 'terrorist killing his own people' who was
directly kept in power by Tehran, the participants said... While
declining to comment on the exchange, Prince Turki told Reuters the
commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards had boasted publicly that
Iran had 120,000 fighters in Arab countries." http://t.uani.com/1njqV9G
Opinion
& Analysis
Max
Boot & Michael Pregent in WashPost: "President Obama, fresh off
the implementation of the nuclear accord and a prisoner swap, may want
to believe that Iran is, as he suggested to NPR a year ago while
discussing what it would take to get a deal done, now on its way to becoming
'a very successful regional power' that will abide 'by international
norms and international rules.' This flies in the face of Iran's long
record of making war on Americans, using the same tactics time after
time. On Jan. 20, 2007, a dozen or so Iraqi militants wearing military
uniforms and driving black GMC Suburbans drove into the Karbala
provincial government headquarters in a brazen attempt to kidnap U.S.
soldiers. One U.S. soldier died in a gun battle. Four others were
seized by the attackers and murdered during the course of a pursuit by
U.S. forces. Coalition forces subsequently captured two leaders of an
Iranian-backed terrorist group called Asaib Ahl al-Haq (AAH, or League
of the Righteous), the brothers Qais Khazali and Laith Khazali, who under
interrogation revealed direct involvement by Iran's Quds Force in
planning the attack. A Lebanese Hezbollah operative closely linked to
the Quds Force, Ali Musa Daqduq, was subsequently captured and linked
to the attack as well in spite of his attempts to pretend that he was
deaf and mute. Two years after the Karbala attack , in 2009, Laith
Khazali was freed as part of a prisoner exchange with Iranian-backed
Shiite militants who had kidnapped five British men in Iraq and killed
four of them. Qais Khazali was freed in 2010 and Daqduq in 2012. Today
the Khazali brothers are back running AAH, which is more powerful than
ever and appears to be back to its old tricks. On Jan. 16, a group of
militants driving SUVs and wearing military uniforms kidnapped three Americans
in Baghdad. At least two of the men were apparently working as trainers
for the Counter Terrorism Service, Iraq's elite special operations
unit, which is not only the most effective part of its military (it led
the recent assault on Ramadi) but also virtually the only part of it
not infiltrated by Shiite militias. Various media outlets are reporting
that the Americans were taken to Sadr City, a Shiite stronghold, and
that AAH is most likely responsible, possibly in coordination with
another Iranian-backed militia, Saraya al-Salam. AAH is a wholly owned
subsidiary of Iran's Quds Force. It is inconceivable that it could
kidnap and hold Americans - a course of action with significant
international repercussions - without at least the acquiescence, and
probably the active support, of Tehran. Yet the Obama administration is
doing all it can to obfuscate that reality. Reuters cited 'U.S.
government sources' in reporting that 'Washington had no reason to
believe Tehran was involved in the kidnapping and did not believe the
trio were being held in Iran, which borders Iraq.' Why would Iran need
to bring the hostages to its own territory when it already controls
much of Iraq? ... If another news report is to be believed, the
administration is pretty sure who is responsible for the kidnapping but
just won't say so in public. CBS News reports: 'Officials in Washington
had hoped the Iranian government would tell the militia group to hold
off because of all the negotiations surrounding the prisoner swap that
saw the release of five Americans. The State Department source said the
fear was that one of the groups might have gone off the reservation.'
If accurate, this is an incredible revelation: It suggests that the
U.S. government had some advance warning of the danger of Americans
being kidnapped in Iraq but chose to ignore it in the hopes that Iran
would restrain its proxies. The notion that AAH has 'gone off the
reservation' represents, of course, nothing more than wishful thinking
on the part of an administration that is deeply committed to a policy
of rapprochement with Iran. The United States has become dependent on
Iran not just in carrying out the nuclear deal that will form the core
of Obama's foreign policy legacy. It is also dependent on
Iranian-backed Shiite militias in Iraq for fighting the Islamic State.
While the United States insisted that Shiite militias stay off the
front lines in the battle of Ramadi, whose population is entirely
Sunni, it has generally preferred to turn a blind eye to the growing power
of the militias. The cost of this cavalier attitude has already been
considerable. As Reuters notes: 'In allowing the Shiite militias to run
amok against their Sunni foes, Washington has fueled the Shia-Sunni
sectarian divide that is tearing Iraq apart.' Indeed, the power of the
Shiite militias leads many Sunnis to embrace the Islamic State as the
lesser evil. Now we are seeing another possible ramification of
Washington's acquiescence to the Iranian power grab. It will make the
U.S. military far less likely to try to rescue the three U.S. hostages
even if it can develop actionable intelligence on their location,
because any rescue attempt would put U.S. troops into direct conflict
with Iranian proxies. That would endanger the safety of all U.S.
personnel in Iraq and risk collapsing Obama's entire strategy of
outreach to Iran. Instead of a rescue attempt, expect the
administration to attempt another deal like the one that led this month
to the release of five American hostages in return for seven Iranians convicted
of acquiring sensitive military technology. The problem with such deals
is that they only encourage more hostage-taking - as the kidnapping in
Baghdad, on the very day when the nuclear deal was being implemented,
should make clear." http://t.uani.com/1WJQdtT
Anne
Applebaum in WashPost: "Sanctions have been lifted on Iran, and a moment of
change has arrived. President Obama has called this 'a unique opportunity,
a window, to try to resolve important issues.' The brilliant
ex-diplomat Nicholas Burns has said we are at a 'potential turning
point in the modern history of the Middle East.' And of course they are
right. The diplomacy of the Middle East will now change, for better or
for worse, forever. But be very wary of anyone who claims anything
more, and certainly be careful of anyone who claims anything more for
Iran itself. President Hassan Rouhani is not Mikhail Gorbachev, and
this is not a perestroika moment. Iran is not 'opening up' or becoming
'more Western' or somehow more liberal. Maybe Iran's foreign minister
will now pick up the phone when John Kerry calls. But other than that,
the nature of the Iranian regime has not altered at all. On the contrary,
the level of repression inside the country has grown since the
'moderate' Rouhani was elected in 2013. The number of death sentences
has risen. In 2014, Iran carried out the largest number of executions
anywhere in the world except for China. Last year, the number may have
exceeded 1,000. Partly this is because Iran's chief justice has boasted
of the eradication (i.e., mass killing) of drug offenders, many of whom
are juveniles or convicted on dubious evidence. Political pressure and
religious discrimination have increased, too. Women who don't wear
veils are still vulnerable to arrest and sentencing. The penalties for
apostasy, adultery and homosexuality are still high, up to and
including capital punishment. Cultural dissidents are under pressure,
too, even more so since the sanctions-lifting deal was announced. On
Jan. 7, the poet Hila Sedighi was arrested after landing at Tehran
airport and detained for 48 hours, presumably as a warning. In October,
a Kurdish filmmaker received six years and 223 lashes for 'insulting
the sacred.' When five Americans were released from Iranian prisons
this month, the International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran noted
that many other political prisoners, including some foreigners, remain
in Iranian prisons. If it were possible to separate all of these
stories into a box and call Iran a country with 'bad human rights' but
'improving foreign policy,' then maybe there would be a case for
ignoring them. But - as we've learned to our cost, in Russia, among
other places - regimes that need violence to repress their citizens do
not make reliable diplomatic partners. Any ruling clique that fears
popular revolt will always, at the end of the day, tailor its foreign
policy to the goal of keeping itself in power. Right now, Rouhani and
his foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, think that lifting
sanctions will help improve Iran's economy and create popular support.
But if it doesn't, then they or their successors will immediately
direct public anger and emotion at the Great Satan once again. The same
warning applies to the Western businessmen lining up at the borders to
enter Iran. No doubt there will be many Iranians willing to help them
get rich, if it's mutually beneficial. No doubt some will make money,
though it might be hard to hold on to it in a country whose courts are
politicized and whose judges are selected in an arbitrary and opaque
process. But either way, there isn't much point in wishfully hoping
that foreign investment will 'open up' Iran, either: In the current circumstances,
foreign investment is far more likely to enrich the existing elite. If
so, the result will be greater repression, more effective
disinformation and, of course, more money for the export of the
ideology of the Iranian revolution to Syria, Lebanon and Iraq. So, yes,
change has come to Middle Eastern diplomacy. But change has not come to
Iran. And until it does, Iran will remain a source of instability and
violence all across the region." http://t.uani.com/1Um1uiK
Charles
Krauthammer in WashPost: "Give President Obama credit. His Iran nuclear deal
may be disastrous but the packaging was brilliant. The
near-simultaneous prisoner exchange was meant to distract from last
Saturday's official implementation of the sanctions-lifting deal. And
it did. The Republicans concentrated almost all their fire on the swap
sideshow. And in denouncing the swap, they were wrong. True, we should
have made the prisoner release a precondition for negotiations. But
that preemptive concession was made long ago (among many others, such
as granting Iran in advance the right to enrich uranium). The remaining
question was getting our prisoners released before we gave away all our
leverage upon implementation of the nuclear accord. We did. Republicans
say: We shouldn't negotiate with terror states. But we do and we
should. How else do you get hostages back? And yes, of course
negotiating encourages further hostage taking. But there is always
something to be gained by kidnapping Americans. This swap does not
affect that truth one way or the other.
And here,
we didn't give away much. The seven released Iranians, none of whom has
blood on his hands, were sanctions busters (and a hacker), and
sanctions are essentially over now. The slate is clean. But how unfair,
say the critics. We released prisoners duly convicted in a court of
law. Iran released perfectly innocent, unjustly jailed hostages. Yes,
and so what? That's just another way of saying we have the rule of law,
they don't. It doesn't mean we abandon our hostages. Natan Sharansky
was a prisoner of conscience who spent eight years in the gulag on
totally phony charges. He was exchanged for two real Soviet spies. Does
anyone think we should have said no? The one valid criticism of the
Iranian swap is that we left one, perhaps two, Americans behind and
unaccounted for. True. But the swap itself was perfectly reasonable.
And cleverly used by the administration to create a heartwarming human
interest story to overshadow a rotten diplomatic deal, just as the Alan
Gross release sweetened a Cuba deal that gave the store away to the
Castro brothers. The real story of Saturday, Jan. 16, 2016 -
'Implementation Day' of the Iran deal - was that it marked a historic
inflection point in the geopolitics of the Middle East. In a stroke,
Iran shed almost four decades of rogue-state status and was declared a
citizen of good standing of the international community, open to trade,
investment and diplomacy. This, without giving up, or even promising to
change, its policy of subversion and aggression. This, without having
forfeited its status as the world's greatest purveyor of terrorism.
Overnight, it went not just from pariah to player but from pariah to
dominant regional power, flush with $100 billion in unfrozen assets and
virtually free of international sanctions... Cash-rich, reconnected
with global banking and commerce, and facing an Arab world collapsed
into a miasma of raging civil wars, Iran has instantly become the
dominant power of the Middle East. Not to worry, argued the
administration. The nuclear opening will temper Iranian adventurism and
empower Iranian moderates. The opposite is happening. And it's not just
the ostentatious, illegal ballistic missile launches; not just Iran's
president reacting to the most puny retaliatory sanctions by ordering
his military to accelerate the missile program; not just the videotaped
and broadcast humiliation of seized U.S. sailors. Look at what the
mullahs are doing at home. Within hours of 'implementation,' the regime
disqualified 2,967 of roughly 3,000 moderate candidates from even
running in parliamentary elections next month. And just to make sure we
got the point, the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, reiterated
that Iranian policy - aggressively interventionist and immutably
anti-American - continues unchanged.In 1938, the morning after Munich,
Europe woke up to Germany as the continent's dominant power. Last
Sunday, the Middle East woke up to Iran as the regional hegemon, with a
hand - often predominant - in the future of Syria, Yemen, Iraq, the
Gulf Arab states and, in time, in the very survival of Israel." http://t.uani.com/1ZYIo98
WashPost
Editorial:
"The Post has been celebrating the release of reporter Jason
Rezaian and his wife, Yeganeh Salehi, who is also a journalist,
following their unjust detention and Mr. Rezaian's prolonged
imprisonment in Iran. But even after their freeing, Iran remains a
world leader in the imprisonment and abuse of journalists. At least 19
other reporters, cartoonists and editors are still being held by the
Islamic regime, often in cruel and inhumane conditions, according to the
Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ). The story of Mr. Rezaian's
ordeal ought to focus more attention on those who remain behind bars.
The CPJ's annual survey of imprisoned journalists describes a wide
range of Iranian professionals, from editors of well -known newspapers
to 'citizen journalists' posting on social media. A number are members
of ethnic minorities, including Kurds working for newspapers and
websites catering to that population. The majority reported for media
associated with reformist political forces in Iran, which have endured
repeated waves of repression in recent years. The longest-serving
prisoners CPJ identified were arrested in 2007; the most recent were
detained this month, in a crackdown ahead of the elections scheduled
for late February. Many of the prisoners have, like Mr. Rezaian,
suffered from arbitrary and blatantly illegal treatment by Iranian
authorities. Some have had their detentions extended or parole denied
in violation of Iran's own laws; a few have had new cases brought against
them after their prison terms expired, to keep them jailed. Several
have staged hunger strikes in an attempt to gain basic rights, such as
medical care or visits with critically ill relatives. According to
Reporters Without Borders (RSF), several of the journalists have
serious medical problems that their captors have disregarded. One,
Hossein Ronaghi Malki, was reimprisoned last week in violation of
medical advice after being paroled to obtain kidney surgery. RSF says
his life is now in danger. Another, Said Razavi Faghih, should have
been released when he completed a sentence in March, but instead was
retried and given a new, longer sentence - not long after undergoing
heart surgery. What all of the journalists have in common with Mr.
Rezaian is that they are not guilty of any crime recognized by
civilized governments. They were targeted explicitly for reporting or
commenting on Iran and its leaders. Some are charged with 'insulting'
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei or 'propaganda against the regime.' Five
who were arrested in November were accused of being part of an
'infiltration network' backed by 'hostile Western countries'; in other
words, they interviewed foreign officials or wrote for media outside of
Iran. Tehran found an interest in releasing Mr. Rezaian, whose case had
received international attention, and who, along with several other
Americans, were exchanged for seven Iranians jailed in the United
States. But the regime's fundamental totalitarian character hasn't
altered. We'll know that Iran has really begun to change when the brave
journalists still in prison are freed." http://t.uani.com/1RII8GE
Julian
Ku in Lawfare:
"The brief Iranian detention and safe return last week of 10 U.S.
sailors - and their equipment - would seem to have little in common
with ongoing U.S. plans for Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs)
in the South China Sea. But the failure of the U.S. to openly criticize
Iran's detention of U.S. ships could seriously undermine the U.S.'s
ability to push back against China in the South China. Why? Because
reports from the U.S. Navy investigation of the incident strongly
suggest that the U.S. ships detained by Iran were entitled to conduct
'innocent passage' through Iran's territorial waters under the
principles codified by the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea. Under
Article 19 of this treaty, military ships can traverse a territorial
sea as long as its passage is 'not prejudicial to the peace, good
order, or security of the coastal nation.' Like the U.S., Iran has
signed but not ratified UNCLOS. But Iran has acknowledged innocent
passage is a principle of customary international law. Iran has not
claimed that the U.S. naval ships were acting in a threatening manner
that would violate the 'innocent passage' doctrine. Rather, Iran
apparently believes that the U.S. ships were required to get permission
before traversing their territorial waters, even if the transit was
conducted under innocent passage. Iran's interpretation of the innocent
passage doctrine finds little support under the text of UNCLOS and it
has been squarely rejected by most major seafaring nations, including
both the U.S. and the then-Soviet Union. Indeed, such a restrictive
reading of innocent passage effectively undermines the whole purpose of
the doctrine and it is inimical to the interests of the world's largest
naval power. Conducting innocent passage in the territorial waters of
nations (like Iran) who require permission is a common U.S. FONOP that
the U.S. Navy believes upholds the broad principle of freedom of
navigation. In 2014, the US Navy reports it conducted FONOPs under
innocent passage in the territorial seas of Argentina, Indonesia,
Nicaragua, South Korea, and Taiwan. The much-ballyhooed October 2015
U.S.S. Lassen FONOP in the South China Sea was - as discussed before
here - an 'innocent passage.' Yet China protested the operation on the
grounds that the Lassen should have demanded permission before conducting
a FONOP. [I've written more about that legal dispute here.] So if the
U.S. is willing to make the right to innocent passage a part of its
FONOP program, why didn't it challenge the legality of Iran's
detention? Perhaps the U.S. didn't want to upset the negotiations that
eventually won the U.S. sailors' release - or unrelated negotiations
related to the release of American prisoners from Iran days later. But
now that the sailors are free, there should be nothing that prevents
the U.S. from declaring - as Senator John McCain has done - that Iran's
seizure and detention violated international law and the principles of
freedom of navigation. Nor is there anything that should prevent the
U.S. from conducting an innocent passage FONOP in Iranian territorial
waters. I recognize the delicate state of current U.S.-Iranian
relations. But the U.S. cannot allow this incident to set a precedent
for other countries." http://t.uani.com/1NuSCBM
Saleem
Vaillancourt in IranWire: "IranWire is thrilled and relieved that Jason
Rezaian, Amir Hekmati, Saeed Abedini and Nasrollah Khosravi were
released from Iranian jails on January 16. The lives of these four
Iranian-American men and their families can now resume - after
interruptions that have lasted far too long. Rezaian, Hekmati and
Abedini should never have been jailed at all. And we'll know more about
Khosravi's own unjust imprisonment in the coming days. A fifth
Iranian-American, Siamak Namazi, remains in prison. But we worry that
dozens of other Iranians - who are just plain Iranian, and not also
American - are being forgotten in the rush to declare a new dawn. Let's
remember the others - as many as we can, even just a fraction of the
whole - because most of the world will never know their names." http://t.uani.com/23o4LUI
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