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Steven Emerson,
Executive Director
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March 29, 2016
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Bloody
tide: Terror deaths increased 8-fold since 2010, says study
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This article originally appeared on FoxNews.com
 The deadly toll of
terrorism around the globe has jumped nearly 800 percent in the past five
years, according to an exhaustive new report that blames the alarming
expansion of Islamist groups across the Middle East and Africa.
The nonprofit Investigative Project on Terrorism found that an average
of nearly 30,000 people per year have been killed by terrorists since 2010,
when terrorism's death toll was 3,284. The authors of the study, which
tabulated the numbers through the end of 2015, say that the exponential
increase shows two troubling trends: More attacks are happening, and they
tend to be deadlier than ever.
"Everyone has known that terrorist attacks have generally been
increasing yearly since 9/11," Steven Emerson, executive director of
IPT, tells FoxNews.com. "But the magnitude of the increase of the
attacks surprised us, especially in the past five years. Even if you look
back at the annual reports issued by the most senior analysts in the top
five intelligence and counter-terrorism agencies, there is not one report
that predicted or forecasted that we would likely see such a massive
escalation of attacks."
The study says that the rise is due, in part, to the fact that Islamist
terror groups are operating in more countries than ever, especially in the
Middle East and Africa. ISIS, which split from Al Qaeda in early 2014, now
has a presence or affiliation in several Middle Eastern countries, Africa
and Southeast Asia.
In addition to ISIS, groups like Boko Haram in Nigeria and Al Shabaab in
Somalia have been on the rise in the last few years. The Taliban has been
resurgent in Afghanistan and Pakistan, where it took responsibility for
Sunday's Easter attack on Christians in Lahore; Kurdish-affiliated groups
have been blamed for bombings in Turkey; Palestinian terrorists have waged
at least two uprisings in Israel and Al Qaeda has continued to be active in
Syria and Yemen, among other locations.
The terror groups, particularly those in the Middle East, have new
access to deadlier weapons, which they have used to destabilize governments
and terrorize citizens, said Emerson.
He cited the descent of Libya and Syria into civil war and the
willingness of Iran, Russia, North Korea and Qatar to provide arms to
terrorist groups as reasons for the increased potency of terror attacks.
IPT's report used data collected by the University of Maryland's Global
Terrorism Database. Looking at various intervals following the 9/11
attacks, and sorting out deaths caused by clear acts of terrorism -- not
simply war involving known terrorist groups -- IPT found annual terror
deaths have jumped 774 percent since the 2007-11 average.
'[The numbers] are striking when you take into account where the numbers
were at the beginning period," said Pete Hoekstra, who chaired the
House Intelligence Committee when he represented Michigan in the U.S.
Congress. "I don't think people have grasped how significant these
[death toll] numbers are."
Hoekstra, an IPT fellow, helped the IPT analyze data from four separate
time periods, between 2001-2015. From 2001-2006, there was an annual
average of 2,508 terror fatalities around the world. That number rose to
3,284 between 2007 and 2011. During 2012-2013, the annual average tripled
to 9,537, and, in the past two years, that number tripled again, raising
the death toll to a staggering 28,708 per year, making it the current
annual average.
The U.S. has had success fighting individual terror groups, including Al
Qaeda, but when one is suppressed, others rise, said Emerson. What is
needed is a comprehensive approach targeting the ideology, he said.
"There has never been a U.S. or allied strategy to go after radical
Islam," Emerson said. "There have been, however, strategies to go
after specific groups like Al Qaeda or AQAP or ISIS. But these are all
subsets of radical Islam."
The IPT analysis shows that the growth in terror-related murder is not
only attributable to the emergence of ISIS, but also to a wider theater of
operations for terror groups overall. While the Islamic State is
responsible for at least 10,780 deaths since 2013, the rise of other
extremist groups like Boko Haram and Al Shabbab in Africa has accounted for
tens of thousands of terror deaths in the past five years.
"It's clear that they [terror groups] are focused in the Middle
East and in Africa," Hoekstra said. "And it's in many of the
countries where the U.S. has been involved. They have all become failed
states."
Alarmingly, IPT expects the wave of terror to continue to grow in 2016
and beyond. Analysts see continued violence in the trouble spots throughout
Africa and the Middle East, with conflict spilling over into Jordan,
Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Lebanon.
They also predict that Asia will see more terror attacks as countries
like Thailand, The Philippines and India are perceived as soft targets, and
that due to the migrant crisis, violence in Europe will increase over the
next two years as extremists continue to exploit the immigration system
throughout the EU.
Ironically, success in Iraq and Syria could lead to an expansion of
ISIS' footprint, he said.
"With ISIS losing large swaths of territory as well as key
commanders, its center of operational gravity definitely appears to be
shifting to Europe, where it can recruit among the more than 30 million
Muslims who live in Europe," Emerson said.
"Add to this mix the fact that thousands of mosques in Europe are
controlled by Salfists, Wahabists and the Muslim Brotherhood – which
indoctrinate their followers," he said, "and you have a future
recipe for a massive increase in Islamist terrorist violence."
Perry Chiaramonte is a reporter for FoxNews.com. Follow him on
Twitter at @perrych
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The IPT accepts no funding from
outside the United States, or from any governmental agency or political or
religious institutions. Your support of The Investigative Project on
Terrorism is critical in winning a battle we cannot afford to lose. All
donations are tax-deductible. Click here to donate online. The
Investigative Project on Terrorism Foundation is a recognized 501(c)3
organization.
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