Tuesday, August 30, 2016

Eye on Iran: Iran to Seek Investor Bids in October With New Oil Contracts






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Bloomberg: "Iran will invite international oil companies to submit bids in October under the long-awaited new contract model for energy investors, as the OPEC producer seeks billions of dollars to boost output after years of international sanctions. The government will invite companies to bid to develop the South Azadegan field on Iran's southwestern border with Iraq during the week of Oct. 14-20, said Ali Kardor, managing director of the National Iranian Oil Co., according to state news agency IRNA. The company expects to sign three contracts worth a total of $10 billion by March 2017, he said. 'We are calling for technical documents for a tender offer under the framework of the new oil contract model,' Kardor said. 'We will begin sending letters to international oil companies to inform them of the relevant issues next week.'" http://t.uani.com/2bSYlcm

LAT: "Eight months after international sanctions were lifted in exchange for curbs on its nuclear program, Iran's long-suffering people are still waiting for change. President Hassan Rouhani's promises of new jobs and greater incomes haven't been met. Foreign investment has been slow to materialize. Prices of basic goods continue to rise, a reliable marker of misery in an economy struggling to reconnect to the outside world. Under the arched, sky-lit passageways of Tehran's centuries-old grand bazaar, where shoppers lingered at display windows and laborers pushed handcarts piled high with Iranian-made shoes and housewares, many shared a similar lament. 'Since the sanctions were lifted, things have become even worse,' Behnaz Abbasi, a 26-year-old accountant, said while browsing a cramped shop stacked with dusty local carpets. Abbasi and her fiancé, an electrical contractor, said prices for meat and some vegetables had doubled over the last two years. Even with both their salaries, they could barely afford the $300 monthly rent in the small apartment they will share in blue-collar east Tehran. 'We thought things would get better,' she said, 'but for us it's as if the deal never happened.' ... Rumors now swirl in Tehran that Ahmadinejad - or another conservative opposed to rapprochement with the U.S. - could challenge Rouhani, who is up for reelection next June. 'For sure, the next president of Iran will be anti-American,' said theology teacher Hadi Panahian, 29. 'It's impossible for Rouhani to be reelected.'" http://t.uani.com/2bwtaoZ

UN: "The Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Iran, Ahmed Shaheed, has expressed outrage at the execution on 27 August of 12 people, including Alireza Madadpour, on drug-related charges. Mr. Shaheed had appealed publicly on 26 August to the Iranian authorities not to go ahead with the planned executions at Karaj Central Prison. 'The execution of individuals for drug-related offences is simply illegal,' Mr. Shaheed said, noting that international law only allows the imposition of the death penalty for the 'most serious crimes', where there is intentional killing, and after a fair trial that respects the most stringent due process guarantees. None of these conditions were respected, at least in the case of Mr. Madadpour. 'Combating drug trafficking, a serious concern in Iran, does not justify the use of the death penalty in drug-related cases,' the Special Rapporteur stressed. 'The execution of Mr. Madadpour and 11 others shows the Iranian authorities' complete disregard of its obligations under international human rights law and especially of international fair trial standards and due process guarantees,' Mr. Shaheed added." http://t.uani.com/2bOqgrS

Nuclear & Ballistic Missile Program

The Hill: "The State Department said Monday it is concerned about Iran state media reports that the country has deployed an advanced missile defense system around its Fordow underground uranium facility. The S-300 surface-to-air missile system was sold to Iran by Russia over U.S. objections, after an international accord was reached last July that lifted sanctions on Iran in exchange for limits to its nuclear program. 'We've seen the reports of this deployment. Obviously, that's of concern to us because we have long objected to the sale of Iran -- of these kinds of capabilities. So as we get more information, obviously, we're going to stay in close consultation with partners going forward,' said State Department press secretary John Kirby said at a briefing. Kirby said Secretary of State John Kerry did not raise the issue during talks with Russia's foreign minister last week, but said, 'it is an issue that the secretary has been very clear ... about in the past on numerous occasions.' ... U.S. officials and allies are concerned that the deployment of the S-300, which intercepts missiles, would limit potential future military options. Last August, the Pentagon expressed objections to the sale, but said it was 'confident' the president would 'have all the options he needs' to counteract the system. In October, former Marine Corps commandant Retired Gen. James Conway warned the S-300's deployment 'would be a game changer in the region.'" http://t.uani.com/2bOoFSO

U.S.-Iran Relations

Fox News: "Dangerous confrontations between Iran and the U.S. Navy are becoming even more frequent than previously estimated, Fox News has learned. According to new data shared Monday with Fox News by a U.S. defense official, the number of provocative interactions between Iranian vessels and the U.S. Navy in the Persian Gulf nearly doubled in the first half of 2016 compared with the same time period a year ago. 'In the first half of 2016, we have seen nearly twice as many unprofessional and/or unsafe interactions when compared to the first half last year. That's a disturbing rise and it has continued into the second half of the year,' said the official, who requested anonymity because he was not authorized to speak on the record. In the first half of 2016, there were 19 dangerous interactions with the Iranians, which the U.S. Navy characterized as 'unsafe and unprofessional.' In the first half of 2015, that number was 10, according to the official. The Iranian vessels acted as the aggressors every time, according to the U.S. Navy. The account follows a Fox News report on Friday citing estimates that such confrontations are up more than 50 percent this year. The defense official, though, said Monday the U.S. Navy had gone through its numbers over the weekend and reclassified some of them. (U.S. Central Command had issued a statement in July saying there were 26 dangerous interactions in the first half of 2016.) The new numbers show an even sharper rise in the first half of the year, though the number itself is lower than Central Command first estimated." http://t.uani.com/2c81y6H

Business Risk

AFP: "France's environment minister signed Sunday a plan for French firms to help tackle Iran's environmental problems, but criticised the refusal of her country's banks to work with the Islamic republic. Segolene Royal met in Tehran with the head of Iran's Environmental Protection Organisation, Massoumeh Ebtekar, and a group of ministers, agreeing to work together on the water shortage, energy efficiency and pollution problems facing Iran. She was travelling for three days with senior business figures from French environmental and renewable energy firms, including the boss of multinational Engie. But both sides are aware that the refusal of major French banks to work in Iran is a huge obstacle to working together. 'It's a real problem. It's been raised by the Iranian ministers but also by French businesses,' she told reporters in Tehran. 'It's completely unacceptable. We can't ask Iran to make efforts on energy transition... while the financial system doesn't respond, including on industrial cooperation that could help deal with energy, climate and pollution issues,' she said... Royal said she would urgently look for a work-around, even if it meant looking outside France, for instance to smaller Italian banks that are less exposed to the US system. 'We will find a solution. Either we will work with non-French banks... or we will mobilise the public investment bank, or why not the European Investment Bank?' she said." http://t.uani.com/2bwAXye

LAT: "In June, Iran announced that it had reached a $25-billion agreement to purchase or lease more than 100 aircraft from Chicago-based Boeing - the biggest U.S. business deal with Iran since Washington cut diplomatic ties with Tehran in 1979. But Republican opponents of the nuclear deal in the House of Representatives approved legislation in July to block the sale. In a letter to Boeing, two Republican lawmakers cited accusations that Iran's commercial aviation sector has been used to funnel troops and weapons to terrorist organizations and dictators such as Syrian President Bashar Assad. 'These terrorist groups and rogue regimes have American blood on their hands,' the letter said. 'Your potential customers do as well.' Although President Obama has said he would veto any attempt to stop the sale, in the heat of an election campaign in which Republicans are eager to paint Democrats as soft on Iran, it seems unlikely that any planes will be delivered before November. Boeing representatives continue to travel to Tehran for meetings with Iranian aviation officials, most recently in early August at the former Sheraton hotel. Iranian officials say they have an agreement in principle, but cite the delay as evidence that the U.S. isn't living up to its end of the nuclear pact. Some analysts say Iran can't afford the planes and lacks the technicians and airport space to operate them. Patrick Clawson, director of research at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, wrote last month that the more than 100 Boeing aircraft, plus a similar number Iran wants to purchase from Airbus, together exceed the entire fleet of Air France - which operates in a country that has seven times the number of air travelers as Iran." http://t.uani.com/2bxEdiY

Al-Monitor: "Before the July 2015 nuclear deal, most banking and finance headlines about Iran concerned individuals or banks being fined or coming under investigation for allegedly violating US sanctions. These days, news of banks and financial institutions working with Iran no longer necessarily raise eyebrows. However, an Iranian minister's recent inference that MasterCard services will become available to Iranians has caused a stir. On Aug. 13, several Iranian media outlets quoted Minister of Communication and Information Technology Mahmoud Vaezi as saying that Iran Post Company has signed a deal with a foreign firm to make MasterCard services accessible to Iranians for the first time. 'Credit and debit cards, accepted in more than 210 countries where MasterCard is valid, will be distributed at financial branches of Iran Post Company from Aug. 23, which coincides with the beginning of Government Week,' Vaezi said. The news quickly made headlines around the world - but there have been doubts about its accuracy. MasterCard itself quickly reacted by denying any activity or cooperation with Iran. 'MasterCard does not have any activities in Iran, as sanctions have remained in place for US-based companies for some time,' the company's spokesman Seth Eisen said Aug. 15. While the reported announcement by the Iranian minister and later denial of cooperation by MasterCard resulted in wide speculation in the Iranian media, Vaezi later tried to clarify what he described as a 'misunderstanding' about his remarks... Based on statements by Iranian officials, it appears that the Malaysia-registered Vision Card Iranian Co. will roll out a debit card service. According to the company's website, it is the official representative of TransForex - an official prepaid issuer of MasterCard - in Iran." http://t.uani.com/2c26xGZ

Sanctions Relief

Press TV (Iran): "Russian shipbuilder Krasnye Barrikady and an Iranian company have signed a deal worth $1 billion to build five offshore drilling rigs for oil and gas exploration in the Persian Gulf. The deal signed with Iran's Tasdid Offshore Development Company (TODC) on Sunday envisages the construction of each drilling rig over two years in the port city of Khorramshahr, TODC Managing Director Ehsanollah Mousavi said. The project will be jointly financed by Russia and Iran, and put the Islamic Republic among the countries capable of building drilling rigs... Mousavi signed the agreement with Krasnye Barrikady CEO Alexander Ilyichev, lending a fresh momentum to Iran's oil and gas development, including its massive South Pars field." http://t.uani.com/2bM79yA

Regional Destabilization

VOA: "The Iranian government's launch of a 'United Shia Liberation Army' is sending signals that Tehran wants to expand its political and military role in Middle East conflicts along sectarian lines, analysts say. 'Using a sectarian Shi'ite identifier with the title of the new army will inflame sectarian tensions in the region,' Talha Abdulrazaq, a researcher at the University of Exeter's Strategy and Security Institute, told VOA. 'Iran is asserting itself as a regional or even an imperialistic power.' The new force, announced Thursday by a veteran military commander who leads Iranian forces in Syria, is designed to fight in Arab countries and would recruit heavily from non-Iranian Shi'ite Muslims across the region. In an interview with Mashregh news agency, Mohammad Ali Falaki, a leader in the elite Iranian Revolutionary Guard's (IRGC), said the focus of the new force would center on three fronts - Yemen, Syria and Iraq. He said the IRGC already leads Shi'ite dominated forces in Syria comprising fighters who come from Pakistan, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon... 'It is an announcement that they are basically declaring that they are going to continue to use foreign fighters to spread sectarian violence, extremism and terrorism across the region,' Abdulrazaq told VOA in a phone interview." http://t.uani.com/2c7ZtaS

Human Rights

USA Today: "Authorities in Iran have released a Texas graduate student from jail after five years, state media reported Tuesday. The government-owned IRAN Daily quoted Omid Kokabee's lawyer as saying his client will be allowed to enjoy 'conditional freedom' for the rest of his 10-year sentence, according to the Associated Press. The lawyer, Saeed Khalili, said Kokabee, who was released from jail in April for medical treatment, 'will not return to prison, any more,' the news agency said. Kokabee, an Iranian, studied optics in the physics department at the University of Texas. He was arrested in 2011 while visiting his family and convicted of having 'relations with a hostile country' and receiving 'illegitimate funds,' the AP said. The International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran said Kokabee, 34, was jailed for refusing to work on military projects in Iran and was diagnosed with kidney cancer in April after being denied proper medical treatment in prison." http://t.uani.com/2bT2Xiu

ICHRI: "Imprisoned Iranian scientist Omid Kokabee, who spent more than five years in Evin Prison for refusing to work on Iran's military projects, was granted conditional release on August 29, 2016. Kokabee, currently on medical leave, was diagnosed with kidney cancer this past April after years of being denied proper medical treatment by prison authorities. The International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran calls on the Iranian Judiciary to immediately allow Kokabee to leave the country if he so wishes, so that he may continue his interrupted scientific studies and career. Kokabee's academic studies as a post-doctoral physics student at the University of Texas were abruptly halted when he was arrested in Iran in 2011 during a visit to his family. 'While we welcome the decision to release Omid Kokabee after he unjustly spent more than five years in prison, his release does not compensate for the pain he endured during these years and the severely damaged health he suffered as a result of prison conditions,' said Hadi Ghaemi, executive director of the Campaign." http://t.uani.com/2corIXd

CBC: "A professor from Montreal who has been imprisoned in Iran was recently hospitalized and is barely conscious and can hardly walk or talk, according to family. Homa Hoodfar, an anthropologist at Concordia University, is being kept in solitary confinement nearly three months after her arrest in Tehran on June 6 while on a personal and research visit to Iran, her niece Amanda Ghahremani said. Hoodfar's family says Iranian authorities have refused regular visits by her lawyer and have tried to dismiss him. During his one visit in July, he was forbidden to discuss her case and has been denied all access to her legal file, the family said. 'It has become clear that the authorities are not prioritizing her health and do not intend to respect Homa's due process rights under Iranian law,' Ghahremani said... 'The continued solitary incarceration and illegal psychological pressure applied by the presiding judge to break her and confess to these fabricated charges are of great concern to Professor Hoodfar's family and friends,' a news release from the family says." http://t.uani.com/2bOZqEB

Opinion & Analysis

Omar S. Bashir & Eric Lorber in Foreign Affairs: "Last week, representatives from Boeing visited Tehran to hammer out the details of a proposed multibillion-dollar sale of commercial aircraft to Iran. The possible sale of these planes has sparked fierce debate in the U.S. Congress, with many on both sides of the aisle rightly concerned that the Iranian government and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) may use these planes to send arms and illicit goods to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's forces or to the international terrorist group Hezbollah. With the Senate prepared in the next few weeks to consider legislation on this topic and the Treasury Department poised to provide Boeing (as well as Airbus, which reached its own deal with Iran earlier this year) the necessary permission to proceed with the sale, the fight appears headed for a second round. Critics of Boeing's and Airbus' sales are justifiably focused on the risks: in 2011, the U.S. Treasury added Iran Air, the proposed recipient of the aircraft, to the Specially Designated Nationals list because of its work on behalf of the IRGC. (The list identifies organizations and individuals that the U.S. government believes are involved in terrorism.) Although the airline was delisted as part of last summer's nuclear deal, called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Iran Air planes have been implicated in sanctions evasion and have flown known weapons resupply routes to Syria as recently as June. Nevertheless, the United States appears to be obligated to allow the sale of these aircraft to Iran under certain conditions. Annex 2 of the JCPOA, which identifies key concessions the United States and its partners agreed to grant Iran in exchange for limits on the Islamic Republic's nuclear program, specifies that 'the United States commits to allow for the sale of commercial passenger aircraft and related parts and services to Iran . . . provided that licensed items and services are used exclusively for commercial passenger aviation.' But even if the United States is obligated to allow the sale of Boeing and Airbus planes to Iran, the United States does not need to give up its leverage in ensuring that the aircraft are used exclusively for civilian purposes. By carefully thinking through how to structure these contracts, the United States can pressure Iran Air to abstain from using the new aircraft to support the IRGC and also limit the Islamic Republic's ability to use the tens of billions of dollars it can now access under the terms of the JCPOA to support terrorism. In particular, Boeing and Airbus could require that Iran Air place the bulk of the funds necessary to purchase these planes in escrow accounts at the beginning of the contract periods. For example, Boeing could require Iran Air to put $10 billion of the $17.8 billion deal into an escrow account up-front. The contracts could further specify that if an independent investigatory or intelligence service determines that Iran Air is engaged in transporting any military goods; supporting the IRGC; leasing aircraft to airlines, such as Mahan Air, that are still on the Specially Designated Nationals list; or flying these particular aircraft to specific prohibited locations, such as Damascus, Iran Air will immediately forfeit those funds and the remainder of the contracts will be nullified-including maintenance services and the delivery of additional aircraft. The scope of these provisions could also be expanded to ensure that Iran Air or other Iranian airlines using these planes not fly to other sanctioned jurisdictions; Iran has well-documented illicit networks stretching as far as countries such as North Korea. By requiring up-front payment and making the provision of the aircraft contingent on Iran Air's agreement to verifiably use them solely for commercial purposes, these contracts could help allay a major concern about the nuclear deal among its supporters and critics alike: that the billions of dollars of relief provided to Iran in the deal is front-loaded instead of being gradually doled out as long as Iran proves that it is abiding by the terms of the agreement... This approach would represent a larger shift to thinking more carefully about how the United States can unwind sanctions in a targeted way to achieve strategic goals. And if the Iranians will not agree to such provisions, then the sale of these aircraft looks even riskier and the regime more recalcitrant." http://t.uani.com/2byRV47

Emanuele Ottolenghi in The Hill: "With the presidential campaign in full swing, U.S. media may be forgiven for downplaying the news of Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif's six-nation tour of Latin America last week. His visit, however, should elicit concern in Washington. Iran has long relied on Latin America to evade Western sanctions, including, critically, on ballistic missiles technology. Now sanctions are gone and Iran's missile activity no longer banned, but Tehran continues to use America's backyard to develop long-range missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads. Earlier this month, the Brazilian journalist Leonardo Coutinho confirmed the strategic importance of Latin America to Iran's military program in the magazine La Veja. Coutinho exposed an official document dated Aug. 3, 2009, showing that then-Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez had approved a $1.3-million investment for a joint venture between Venezuela's state defense contractor, CAVIM, and Iran's Parchin Chemical Industries. The project involved the establishment and improvement of facilities for producing nitrocellulose and nitroglycerine, both key components of solid rocket fuel. Cooperation between Iran and Venezuela's military sectors has been well-known for years, but it was the first time an official document has emerged showing Chávez's approval of joint military industrial projects. The sum is trivial, but the timing and the partnerships are of critical importance. Iran's missile program came under intense international pressure after the U.N. Security Council passed two resolutions (1696 and 1737) in 2006, enacting sanctions against Iran's procurement efforts. Specifically, Resolution 1737 named Parchin Chemical Industries as a key player in Tehran's ballistic missile program. European Union and U.S. sanctions passed in 2007 and 2008 targeted Parchin Chemical Industries as well, and sought to freeze its assets and block its financial transactions. The approval of funds came less than a year after the U.S. Treasury targeted the Iranian company, making it difficult to procure technology and materials, let alone pay for them. By establishing facilities in a foreign country where Iran was already intent on creating joint commercial and banking ventures, Parchin found a gateway to evade sanctions. Eventually, the U.S. Department of State sanctioned CAVIM in 2013 for this and other joint Iran-Venezuela projects, but by then, Iran had had four quiet years to advance its solid rocket-fuel production. The La Veja scoop is thus a reminder of the objectives that underlie Zarif's Latin America charm campaign. These are the types of investment, after all, that Iran made in Latin America in the last decade, building on the strength of an ideological alliance with like-minded regimes that share the Islamic Republic's anti-Americanism." http://t.uani.com/2bP9jAw
       

Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com

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