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TOP STORIES
Russia, Turkey and Iran agreed Tuesday to the outlines
of a plan to reinforce a cease-fire in Syria, establishing the three
most significant allies of the protagonists in the conflict as
guarantors to a peace process. The deal concluded two days of talks in
Kazakhstan's capital, Astana, that drew Iran into a burgeoning
alliance with Russia and Turkey over ways to secure a settlement. It
set broad but vague parameters for a cease-fire enforcement mechanism
and committed the three countries to jointly fight the Islamic State
and Syria's al-Qaeda affiliate. It will also provide a test of
Russia's new role as the lead power broker in efforts to secure a
sustainable, long-term solution to the war... the Syrians played only
a peripheral role at the talks. The real negotiations took place at a
hotel several miles away, among the Russian, Iranian and Turkish
officials who hammered out the deal. The head of the Syrian rebel
delegation, Mohammed Alloush, questioned Iran's commitment to the
cease-fire deal, citing its role in arming and funding the militias
that have been behind many violations of the truce.
Kuwait's foreign minister will make a rare visit to
Tehran on Wednesday to deliver a message to President Hassan Rouhani
on a "basis of dialogue" between Gulf Arab states and
arch-rival Iran, Kuwait's state news agency reported. The visit comes
days after Rouhani said countries including Kuwait had offered to
mediate in the escalating feud between Shi'ite Muslim Iran and Sunni
power Saudi Arabia. Kuwaiti news agency KUNA quoted Foreign Minister
Sheikh Sabah Khaled al-Sabah as saying relations between Iran and the
Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) of six Arab states "must be based
on the UN Charter and principles of international law".
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani is losing some public
support ahead of a May election, according to a new opinion poll,
potentially signaling a shift toward his hard-line opponents within
the ruling clerical establishment following the country's historic
nuclear deal. The survey results paint a picture of an Iranian public
wary of the trust Mr. Rouhani placed in the U.S. and other world
powers when his administration negotiated the deal, and skeptical
about the economic benefits they thought it would bring. Conducted in
December for the University of Maryland, the survey is based on telephone
interviews with 1,000 Iranians and provides a gauge of public opinion
in a country where independent polling is rare. Some 69% of Iranians
surveyed said they viewed Mr. Rouhani either very favorably or
somewhat favorably. That represents a significant decline from the
roughly 82% who saw him very favorably or somewhat favorably in a
June poll from the university. The share of respondents who view him
very favorably has fallen steadily from 61% in August 2015 to 28% in
the new poll.
UANI IN THE NEWS
Following the meeting of President Donald Trump with
three automobile industry leaders at the White House on Tuesday, an
advocacy group is drawing attention to Fiat Chrysler's ties with
Iran. Fiat Chrysler CEO Sergio Marchionne was one of the three
automotive executives who ate breakfast with Trump on Tuesday.
Marchionne's company, the United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) watchdog
organization said in statement later in the day, is reportedly in the
midst of negotiating a deal to reenter the Iranian market via a
partnership with the Iran Khodro Group - a subsidiary of a
regime-owned company involved in the Islamic Republic's nuclear and
ballistic missile programs. "Automakers have long known the
risks of doing business with Iran, the world's leading state sponsor
of terror," UANI CEO Ambassador Mark D. Wallace stated.
"Any company meeting with the Trump administration should be transparent
about its activities, and be prepared for the consequences of working
with an Iranian regime committed to its long-standing 'Death to
America' dogma."
U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS
The former CIA director, General David Petraeus,
attended the tenth conference of The Institute for National Security
Studies in Tel Aviv and provided a glimpse into security issues
facing the new administration in Washington. "The US must
prepare for action against Iran, if necessary," he declared on
Tuesday... Petraeus commented, "I told Trump that we need to
repeat what we want - for Iran not to have nuclear weapons and for
the Islamic Republic to stop striving for a Shiite hegemony in the
region. If you ask the Gulf states, their first problem is Iran, and
only afterwards comes ISIS, Yemen, the Muslim Brotherhood, and then
the Palestinian problem - which was in first place for many
years". He added and emphasized: "The US must declare that
it will not enable a nuclear Iran, and that the American military
will be ready for action in the region, if and when. In addition, the
US should work on a joint operation with the Allies if
necessary".
BUSINESS RISK
Iranians love high fashion, but luxury companies
planning to tap Persian appetite for designer clothes and bags are
facing stiff competition from their very own brands-albeit fake
ones... Cut off from the global economy by international sanctions
over the past decade, Iran's importers have had a tough time bringing
in real European goods that the growing middle class wants to buy.
Fakes-many high-quality-have been meeting that demand... Now that
most sanctions on Iran have been removed with the country's nuclear
deal, this ecosystem of knockoffs is confounding genuine luxury
retailers, slowing their entry into a promising new market... Roberto
Cavalli opened a boutique in Tehran's wealthy Zaferaniyeh
neighborhood last February, and Versace followed in April, both in
partnership with Iranian businessman Farshid Jamali.
"Sales have been satisfactory, but lower than
what we expected," Mr. Jamali said.
SANCTIONS RELIEF
Austria's OMV and Iran's Dana Energy have signed a
memorandum of understanding to evaluate possible oil and gas
development and redevelopment projects in Iran, the companies said
Wednesday, in a development that could open an indirect route for UAE
interests to participate in Iran's upstream petroleum sector... the
OMV/Dana agreement is unusual in bringing to Iran an international
oil company in which an Arabian state entity holds a substantial
equity stake, and in teaming up the international partner with an
Iranian private-sector petroleum company instead of one owned by
Iran's government... OMV is the former state petroleum company of
Austria in which Vienna still holds a 31.5% stake. Its second-biggest
shareholder, with 24.9%, is Abu Dhabi government-owned International
Petroleum Investment Co., which last Saturday became a wholly-owned
subsidiary of Mubadala Investment, the newly created Abu Dhabi
industrial group with international petroleum assets that include
over 800,000 b/d of oil production.
Brazilian planemaker Embraer SA, the world's biggest
maker of regional jets, said it's optimistic that a U.S. government
led by Donald Trump will still grant it the clearances needed to sell
aircraft to Iran. While Airbus Group SE and Boeing Co. have already
sealed deals to supply a range of jetliners to the Islamic republic
after obtaining licenses under the Barack Obama administration,
Embraer is in the final stages of order talks, Chief Executive
Officer Paulo Cesar de Souza e Silva said in an interview.
"There is a lot of uncertainty now regarding this new
administration," Silva said Wednesday at the World Economic
Forum in Davos. "But I believe in general terms Mr. Trump is a
businessman. He is very pragmatic and he is for business. So we hope
things won't change too much." The U.S. is able to block plane
exports to Iran from foreign manufacturers even after the easing of
international sanctions because of the high American content of most
aircraft. Embraer's current models use General Electric Co. engines,
while Pratt & Whitney powerplants will feature on new versions.
Starting February 2017, HDASCO Line provides a new
commercial offer between HAROPA - Port of Le Havre and many Iranian
and Iraqi ports. HDASCO Line (Hafez Darya Arya Shipping Company),
also named HDS lines, is the Iranian national shipping company
specialized in container transport and a subsidiary of IRISL Group
(Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines)... Le Havre calls are every
Tuesday at the Terminal de France (TDF) and handled by the Générale
de Manutention Portuaire (GMP). "HDASCO Line is a well-known
shipping line at the port of Le Havre, says Hervé CORNEDE - HAROPA
Commercial and Marketing Director: before the embargo, the Iranian containerships
called at Le Havre every week between 2006 and 2009, connecting the
main Iranian ports". According to Jean-Marc PELTIER - Liner
Department Manager, Worms Services Maritimes Agency - Le Havre:
"This is a great opportunity offered to the French importers and
exporters who wish to develop their trade with Iran.
MILITARY MATTERS
Two airlines sanctioned by the United States for
enabling Iran's global terrorist operations appear to have played a
central role in moving illicit missile components from Ukraine to the
Islamic Republic, according to information obtained by the Washington
Free Beacon. Ukrainian authorities confirmed this week they had
seized a shipment of missile system components bound for Iran, which
could put the Islamic Republic in violation of international bans
prescribed under the nuclear agreement. Video of the seizure show
Ukrainian authorities uncovering 17 boxes of missile parts bound for
Iran and meant to be used in its Fagot anti-tank guided missile
system. Sources familiar with the incident told the Free Beacon that
the airlines involved in this illicit activity have long been
sanctioned by the United States for providing support to Iran's
global terror network. The reversal of longstanding economic
sanctions on Iran provided under the nuclear agreement has boosted
this activity and strengthened Iran's illicit weapons pipeline,
according to these sources... The weapons were found onboard planes
operated by Ukraine's UM Airlines, which officially partners with
Iran's Mahan Air. The United States has sanctioned both carriers for
providing support to Iran's terror network, including the
transportation of weapons and resources to the terror group
Hezbollah, an Iranian proxy group.
REGIONAL DESTABILIZATION
Iran's state television says Kuwait's foreign minister
is seeking to improve relations between Gulf Arab countries and Iran.
The TV on Wednesday quoted Sheikh Sabah Al-Khaled Al-Sabah as saying
during a visit to Tehran that Gulf Arab nations hope the ties
"with Iran will normalize" and that Iran and the Arab
countries should be "regional partners." It says al-Sabah
met his Iranian counterpart Mohammad Javad Zarif and handed over a
message for Iranian President Hassan Rouhani on the "necessity
of improving relations."
OPINION & ANALYSIS
European powers have been quietly warning members of
President Trump's team that new sanctions on Iran are a nonstarter
across the Atlantic. One senior European official went as far as to
say that if any new U.S. sanctions were to cause the Iran nuclear
deal to collapse, most Europeans will say it was Washington's fault,
barring any "major provocation" from the Iranians. This warning
ignores an important fact: In the time since the Iran nuclear deal
was implemented, Tehran has already shown a willful disregard for the
spirit of the agreement. In the past year, Tehran has tested multiple
ballistic missiles, ordered Russian Sukhoi-30 fighter jets without
receiving the required blessing of the United Nations Security
Council and continued its "illegal proliferation-sensitive
procurement activities" at a "quantitatively high
level," according to the German Federal Office for the Protection
of the Constitution. Given that the European Union spent considerable
political capital sealing the nuclear deal, its leaders should be
more invested in ensuring it is strongly enforced and that Iran is
held accountable for its nonnuclear aggression. Continuing to ignore
the mullahs' actions will mean surrendering the West's considerable
economic, political and moral leverage.
As the Trump administration begins planning its
outreach to Moscow, one question for the new president will be
whether he can persuade Russia to turn away from Iran. The two
countries have grown closer since 2015, when a group of nations
lifted some sanctions on Iran in exchange for more transparency about
its nuclear program. Russia sells Iran advanced air defense systems,
and Iran provides its officers and militias to conquer the Syrian
towns and cities indiscriminately bombed by Russian aircraft.
Trump administration officials tell me that they will explore the
extent to which Russian President Vladimir Putin wants to end this
relationship and cooperate with U.S. policy to counter Iranian
aggression in Syria and the Middle East. "It's important to find
out what are the limits of Russia's willingness to cooperate with us
with regard to Iran," said Michael Ledeen, who during the
transition served as an adviser to Michael Flynn, now Trump's
national security adviser. "Those conversations have to take
place." Ledeen was Flynn's co-author of "Field of
Fight," a 2016 book that outlined the retired general's national
security vision. That book makes the case that Iran must be defeated
in order to win the war against radical Islam.
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