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TOP STORIES
The West must ensure the Iran 2015 nuclear deal succeeds
before trying to negotiate other issues, a senior Iranian official said
in a rare public suggestion Tehran could discuss matters such as its
regional activities or missile program with world powers.
President Donald Trump has offered a message of solidarity
to people subjected to "oppression and religious persecution"
around the world. Speaking on February 8 at the National Prayer Breakfast
in Washington, Trump named Iran as one of the countries whose people are
suffering at the hands of the authorities.
With ISIS militarily defeated, Iran's militia allies in Iraq
are increasingly threatening violence against American troops and calling
for the US withdrawal from the country. On February 7, Kata'ib Hezbollah,
an Iranian-supported unit within Iraq's Popular Mobilization Force (PMF),
issued a statement, warning that its fighters will begin to militarily
confront American troops "at any moment" if Washington decides
to keep a long-term military footprint in Iraq. Several other
Iranian-backed PMF groups have made similar threats against US troops,
which are training and advising the Iraqi security forces.
UANI IN THE NEWS
Trump
speaks bluntly about the threat that Iran poses to U.S. interests and
allies in the Middle East... The great irony is that Trump has not yet
established practical policies that match his words.
IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL
The European Union could put in place regulations to protect
its firms doing business in Iran if the United States withdraws from the
2015 nuclear deal and restores extraterritorial sanctions, a senior EU
official said on Thursday.
MILITARY MATTERS & PROXY WARS
Iran's Defense Ministry today unveiled a new propulsion
system for military speedboats, Tasnim News Agency, which is affiliated
with the Revolutionary Guards, reported... In recent years, Iran has
developed more advanced speedboats as part of a broader effort to upgrade
its naval capabilities. Last year, Islamic Revolution Guards Corps
speedboats repeatedly harassed American vessels in the Persian Gulf...
[This new development] indicate[s] that to counter the US naval supremacy
in the region, Tehran may employ "swarm tactics" and has put
increased emphasis on fast-moving vessels that could inflict severe
damage to US naval forces in a potential war.
Iran held a ceremony on 5 February to mark the start of mass
production of the new Mohajer 6 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV).
IRAN PROTESTS & HUMAN RIGHTS
In response to the Iranian government arresting women for
refusing to wear the compulsory hijab, or headscarf, Freedom House issued
the following statement: "Law enforcement authorities should
immediately release the 29 women detained for removing their headscarves
in protest of a discriminatory compulsory hijab law, and uphold the
government's pledge in December to stop these arrests," said Dokhi
Fassihian, senior program manager for Middle East and North Africa
programs at Freedom House.
Mohammad Reza Hashemi-Nabi, a permanent resident of the UK,
has been held in solitary confinement in Iran's Evin Prison for more than
a year without access to a lawyer, his mother informed the Center for
Human Rights in Iran (CHRI).
Political elements in the West are framing the December
2017-January 2018 popular uprising in Iran as a clash of Iran's reformist
and pragmatic camps - the latter led by Iranian President Hassan Rohani -
with the Iranian regime's ideological circles. They have advised aiding
President Rohani by lifting the rest of the U.S. sanctions against Iran,
levelled because of the Iranian regime's support for terrorism outside
its borders and its human rights violations within them, in order to
allow Rohani to work for the welfare of the people and to strengthen the
pragmatic and reformist camps in Iran. This interpretation of the events
is fundamentally wrong
On 31 December, Iran banned Telegram, a popular social
networking application, and the photo-sharing application Instagram...
Deputy Attorney General Abdol Samad Khorramabadi, chair of the Committee
for Identifying Criminal Content, excoriated the Ministry of Communications
for failing to block Instagram before the unrest began. Khorramabadi has
long campaigned against social media access. In July 2017, for example,
he declared that Twitter was a "platform for terrorists" and
justified banning it even though many Iranian parliamentarians, the
Supreme Leader, president, and foreign minister all maintain twitter
accounts.
[N]one of the core issues that propelled the latest
protests-including economic malaise, arbitrary religious edicts, and
foreign adventurism at the expense of Iran's own citizenry-have been
addressed in a meaningful way. Nor are they likely to be, given the rigid
nature of the Islamic Republic's governing ideology. Rather, Iran's
geriatric rulers can be expected to rely ever more heavily on state
repression to preserve and prolong their hold on power. Nevertheless,
they are already painfully aware of a fact that the rest of the world
should also soon grasp: when it comes to change in Iran, the most powerful
force working in favor of freedom might just be the passage of time.
The images of women removing their headscarves now are
drawing international notice to their cause. The outside attention could
either help bring about change, or will have the opposite effect of
entrenching conservative elements of the government and possibly
sharpening the crackdown, Anderlini said.
Conspiracy theories run deep in Iranian society. Iranian
television shows poke fun at the Iranian penchant for conspiracy and
Encyclopedia Iranica, the leading international academic reference about
Iran, dedicates an entry to the history of conspiracy theories in Iran.
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's speeches regularly reference alleged
American, Israeli, Saudi or British plots. Therefore, it is not
surprising that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei would blame the protests
which began on 28 December on foreign governments, external enemies, and
conspirators.
This weekend marks the 39th anniversary of Ayatollah
Khomeini's return from exile in 1979 to hijack a popular movement that
led to the dismissal of Iran's monarchy and its dictatorship. But the
largest countrywide uprising since 2009 suggests that the Iranian people
are prepared to write the next chapter in their history, and it may happen
sooner than Tehran's Washington lobby would like.
U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS
An Iranian official dismissed as "old news" on
Thursday a report in the Western news media that Washington had reached
out to Tehran in December to establish secret, back-channel talks to
negotiate the release of prisoners held by both sides.
The new administration of President Hassan Rouhani felt
confident that, thanks to support from US President Barack Obama, the
Khomeinist regime could talk like Sweden but act like North Korea.
However, it seems that the arrival on the scene of an unknown quantity
named Donald J Trump has confused the mullahs, forcing them to ponder
whether it is still possible to hoodwink the Americans and the rest of
the world while pursuing repression in Iran and destabilizing policies
abroad.
BUSINESS RISK
France's supermajor Total SA continues to work on the South
Pars gas project in Iran despite the uncertainty over potential new U.S.
sanctions on Iran, Total's chief executive Patrick Pouyanne told French
newspaper Le Monde in an interview published on Tuesday.
SANCTIONS ENFORCEMENT
Iranian and North Korean athletes at the Pyeongchang 2018
Olympic Winter Games will receive Samsung mobile phones, organizers said
on Thursday, after Iran summoned South Korea's ambassador over reports
its athletes would not get the gifts.
OTHER ECONOMIC NEWS
Iran aims to raise its crude output capacity to 4.7 million
barrels per day within the next four years, deputy Oil Minister Amir
Zamaninia told a conference in Paris.
Oil prices fell to their lowest in seven weeks on Thursday
amid fears of rising global supplies after Iran announced plans to
increase production and U.S. crude output hit record highs.
FOREIGN AFFAIRS
Despite a thaw in relations between Tehran and Ankara, a
deep level of mutual distrust and divergent regional interests continue
to prevent the two countries to become strategic partners. Ankara and
Tehran will continue to compete for power and influence in Syria and Iraq
as the weakening of the ISIS has created a power vacuum in the region.
Turkey is also positioning itself as the protector of the Sunni
communities in Syria and Iraq as well as the broader region, while Iran
is expanding its arc of influence through the region's Shiite
communities.
GULF STATES, YEMEN, & IRAN
Iran rejected an accusation by Bahrain that it was involved
in an oil pipeline bombing in the kingdom, accusing its rival of making
"false claims."
IRAQ & IRAN
A senior official of Harakat al-Nujaba, an Iranian-supported
militia group fighting in Iraq and Syria, issued a threat against the US
military in Iraq and called on Washington to pull out its troops from the
country, the Iranian media reported.
IRANIAN INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS
On a Friday night in Tehran's flashy Elahieh neighborhood,
the voice of the muezzin calling the Muslim faithful to prayer is nowhere
to be heard, but the ostentatious whine of a Ferrari often is. Ferraris
make little practical sense in car-clogged Tehran, where getting from one
end of town to the other can easily take several hours. But Friday night
here is for gallery hopping and showing off. A Ferrari is perfect for a
noisy crawl down Fereshteh, a narrow street that winds down Elahieh's
hill.
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