Wednesday, May 8, 2019

Eye on Iran: Iran To Stop Complying With Some Nuclear Deal Commitments



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Iran said Wednesday it will stop complying with some of its commitments under the 2015 nuclear deal, escalating tensions with the U.S. and moving closer to a complete breakdown of the landmark accord. The decision comes a year to the day of President Trump's withdrawal from the nuclear agreement. Following its exit, the U.S. imposed harsh oil and banking sanctions on Iran, crippling its economy and severely limiting its biggest export, oil sales.


Secretary of State Mike Pompeo scrapped a visit to Germany on Tuesday to make an unannounced trip to Iraq, pressing Iraqi leaders about what he called the increased dangers to Americans there from Iran's forces and allies. Mr. Pompeo said he also used the four-hour visit to push what he described as Iraq's need to avoid dependence on neighboring Iran for power supplies including electricity. The diversion to Iraq by Mr. Pompeo, who was in the midst of a four-day European tour, added to what is an escalating American effort to ostracize Iran, which the Trump administration has sought to vilify as the chief destabilizing force in the Middle East.


The decision to send an aircraft carrier and a group of Air Force bombers to the Middle East was based in part on intelligence indications that Iran had moved short-range ballistic missiles by boat in waters off its shores, an American official said Tuesday. The movement, first reported by CNN, was among a range of recent indications that Iran might be considering or preparing to attack U.S. forces in the region, said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity in order to discuss sensitive intelligence.

UANI IN THE NEWS


...So who is 62-year-old Qassem Soleimani, the military mastermind whom Secretary of State Mike Pompeo deems equally as dangerous at ISIS leader Abu al-Baghdadi? "He is the individual most responsible for the destabilization and inflammation of sectarian tensions that Iran has sown throughout the Middle East. Soleimani is begrudgingly considered by his adversaries to be a brilliant strategist due to his pioneering of Iran's asymmetrical warfare doctrine," said Jordan Steckler, a research analyst with opposition group United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI).

NUCLEAR DEAL & NUCLEAR PROGRAM


Iran set a 60-day deadline for its nuclear deal counterparts to abide by their commitments on oil and banking, saying it will stop observing restrictions on uranium enrichment if they don't. The move threatens the landmark 2015 accord meant to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon, and will further ratchet up tensions with President Donald Trump's administration, which walked away from the agreement a year ago.


Iran announced on Wednesday it was scaling back curbs to its nuclear program under a 2015 deal with world powers, and threatened to do more - including enriching uranium to a higher level - if countries did not shield it from U.S. sanctions.  A year after Washington pulled out of the nuclear deal with Iran, President Hassan Rouhani unveiled measures that do not appear to violate the deal's terms yet, but could do so in the future if Iran were to persist on the course he set out. 


China's foreign ministry said on Wednesday the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement should be fully implemented and all sides have a responsibility to ensure it happens.  Foreign ministry spokesman Geng Shuang made the remarks during a daily briefing.  Earlier on Wednesday, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said Iran will resume high level enrichment of uranium if world powers did not protect its interests against U.S. sanctions.


Iran has announced it will no longer fully comply with the landmark nuclear deal it signed with the United States and five other nations in 2015, following Washington's own reneging on the agreement and increased diplomatic and military pressure on Tehran. Iran's partial withdrawal from the deal, which took years of negotiation, could be a potentially dangerous development in one of the Middle East's most complex issues. 

SANCTIONS, BUSINESS RISKS, & OTHER ECONOMIC NEWS  


Iraq is close to signing a $53 billion, 30-year energy agreement with Exxon Mobil and PetroChina, Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi said on Tuesday, denying any link between the mega-project and U.S. permission for Iraq to do business with Iran. Iraq expects to make $400 billion over the 30 years the deal will be in effect, the prime minister said. 


The United States said on Tuesday that European powers are unlikely to live up to a pledge to prevent their conduit for trade with Iran being used to launder money or finance terrorism, raising the prospect of further U.S. sanctions. France, Britain and Germany have set up the special purpose vehicle called Instex, a conduit for barter-based trade with Iran, in an effort to protect at least some of Iran's economy from sweeping U.S. sanctions and keep alive a big-power nuclear deal that Washington is about to quit.


Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif told Russian news agency RIA on Tuesday that Iran was close to an oil sales deal with the European Union, despite the sanctions which have been re-imposed by the United States.  "Iran and the EU are on the brink of agreement, which, despite the return of unilateral American sanctions, will make Iranian oil sales possible," he was quoted as saying.


Brent oil held steady near $70 a barrel on Wednesday as record Chinese imports and tighter global supplies eased concerns about a deepening trade spat between the United States and China.  U.S. sanctions on crude exporters Iran and Venezuela as well as supply cuts by OPEC and Russia also supported prices.  Brent crude futures were at $69.78 per barrel by 0902 GMT, down 10 cents or 0.14 percent.  U.S. crude futures were at $61.47 per barrel, up 7 cents or 0.1 percent. 


U.S. Energy Secretary Rick Perry told CNBC on Tuesday that Saudi Arabia is increasing its oil production to meet needs arising from sanctions on Iran.  "Our allies, Saudi Arabia for instance, are increasing their production to meet these needs relative to the Iran sanctions," Perry said in an interview with CNBC, adding that the message for U.S. allies around the world is to not do business with Iran.


Iran's rial currency extended its fall on Tuesday, hovering around a seven-month low against the U.S. dollar, foreign exchange websites said, as tensions rose and Washington said it was sending an aircraft carrier and bombers to the region.  The rial plunged to 154,000 to the dollar on the unofficial market on Tuesday, compared to 150,500 rials on Monday, the currency's lowest value since early October 2018, according to Bonbast.com.

U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS & NEGOTIATIONS


In response to Iran's increasingly bellicose foreign policy, which extends from military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan to civil war in Yemen, terrorist attacks on regional American allies to supporting Hamas in dropping 600 rockets on Israel this week, the Trump administration has squeezed the Iranian economy. Team Trump first exited Obama-Biden-Kerry's stillborn nuclear deal, which gave the West a deadened, one-sided, unenforceable promise to end nuclear research - which Iran did not do - in exchange for planeloads of cash. That was a year ago.


Secretary of State Mike Pompeo described Iran as a growing regional threat during an unannounced visit to Iraq, where he underscored U.S. warnings to Tehran while offering support to allied officials in Baghdad. Tuesday's visit came days after the Pentagon assigned an aircraft carrier group and U.S. bombers to the region, citing intelligence that officials said shows Iran or its proxies were planning attacks on U.S. forces in Iraq and possibly Syria, Kuwait and near Yemen.


U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo made an unannounced visit to Baghdad on Tuesday and met Iraq's prime minister and other top officials to discuss the safety of Americans in Iraq and explain U.S. security concerns amid rising Iranian activity.  The visit came two days after U.S. national security adviser John Bolton said the United States was deploying the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and a bomber task force to the region because of a "credible threat by Iranian regime forces". 


Iran on Wednesday will announce its suspended conformity with the terms of the 2015 nuclear agreement. This reflects Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's embrace of a more adversarial foreign policy.  The signs are clear. Supreme Leader Khamenei offered a thinly veiled pledge on Monday to escalate against the U.S. As Khamenei put it, "If God assists a nation but they fail to appreciate it, they will be slapped. Today there is no option but to stand against the devils, tyrannies and disbelievers."

MILITARY/INTELLIGENCE MATTERS & PROXY WARS


The U.S. military said on Tuesday that B-52 bombers will be part of additional forces being sent to the Middle East to counter what the Trump administration says are "clear indications" of threats from Iran to U.S. forces there.  White House national security adviser John Bolton said on Sunday that the United States was deploying a carrier strike group and a bomber task force to the Middle East.  Captain Bill Urban, a spokesman for U.S. Central Command, said that the bomber task force would consist of B-52 bombers.

IRANIAN INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS


Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif's appearance over the weekend on CBS's Face the Nation showed him trying to convince someone - his minders at home, perhaps - that Iran is a moderate, trustworthy, and terror-fighting country. The designation of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terror organization and the end of oil waivers, he said, would "show the Iranian people that the US is not worthy of being a negotiating partner" and the Trump administration is "squeezing the Iranian people, not the government."


Videos published on social media in recent days showing children dancing to the music of a famous pop star in a few schools in Iran has outraged conservatives. Sasy Mankan is a pop singer who left Iran a decade ago and resides in the United States, but his music was played during some school events and students began dancing to the tune of his popular song "Gentleman."


Iran's radical regime is stepping up its efforts to prevent the spread of Christianity within its borders. Earlier this month, the Islamic Republic's Minister of Intelligence Mahmoud Alavi disclosed publicly that his agency had deployed operatives and assets to counter "advocates of Christianity" active throughout the country. The ministry is also increasing its efforts to intimidate prospective converts, and has "summoned" individuals who have expressed an interest in learning more about the Christian faith for invasive interviews and intimidating interrogations.

RUSSIA, SYRIA, ISRAEL, HEZBOLLAH, LEBANON & IRAN


Israel will not allow Iran to obtain nuclear weaponry, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Wednesday, reiterating a long-held Israeli position after Tehran announced it was scaling back some of its commitments under a 2015 nuclear deal. "This morning, on my way here, I heard that Iran intends to pursue its nuclear program," Netanyahu said in a speech marking Israel's Memorial Day.


A leader of the Islamic Jihad said in a televised interview that he expects war with Israel to break out by next summer. Speaking to Al Mayadeen, a Lebanese news channel, on Tuesday night, Islamic Jihad Secretary-General Ziad al-Nahala described the most recent escalation against Israel as "just preparation for the greater battle."






Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email press@uani.com.

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.

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