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TOP STORIES
For two weeks in May, the U.S. military shadowed two
Iranian commercial boats sailing around the Persian Gulf as policy
makers in Washington and Tehran traded threats and taunts. American
surveillance kept constant watch on the two vessels after U.S. officials
said they saw Iranian forces load missiles into launchers on their
decks, according to U.S. officials. As tensions climbed, the Iranian
ships eventually pulled into a harbor and unloaded the missiles that
had set off alarms for the U.S. military.
The World Bank says Iran is likely to experience an even
worse recession this year than previously thought, as U.S. sanctions
largely choke off oil exports that have been Tehran's main revenue
source. In its latest Global Economic Prospects
report published Wednesday, the Washington-based institution
that provides loans to countries said it expects Iran's Gross
Domestic Product to shrink by 4.5% this year, a steeper contraction
than its earlier estimate of negative 3.6% GDP growth for 2019.
Iran's supreme leader accused Saudi Arabia and other
Arab countries of betraying the Palestinians by cooperating with the
U.S. and Israel, in an attempt to rally regional supporters and raise
the stakes for the Trump administration's long-awaited plan
for peace in the Middle East. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said
Wednesday the Arab countries were committing "a big treason to
the Islamic world" by supporting the U.S.'s so-called deal of
the century.
NUCLEAR DEAL & NUCLEAR PROGRAM
A former deputy head of the UN's atomic watchdog said
Wednesday that Iran is capable of producing a nuclear bomb in six to
eight months. In an interview with Israel's Army Radio, Olli Heinonen
said that Israel and the Gulf states "have a reason to worry."
Heinonen said that despite assertions to the contrary by the current
leadership of the UN's International Atomic Energy Agency, which he
left in 2010, Tehran has not been adhering to the 2015 nuclear deal.
SANCTIONS, BUSINESS RISKS, & OTHER ECONOMIC NEWS
Oil is in the crosshairs as the prospect of
confrontation brews between the U.S. and Iran. At least, that's how
Iranian officials would have it. A top military aide to Iran's
supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Yahya Rahim Safavi, warned
over the weekend that "The first bullet fired in the Persian
Gulf will push oil prices above $100." He added, "This
would be unbearable to America, Europe and the U.S. allies like Japan
and South Korea."
In an exclusive interview with Al-Monitor, Iraqi Minister
of Electricity Luay al-Khatteeb talked about the situation of Iraq's
electricity sector amid tense US-Iran relations. He discussed
the waiver timeline that Washington granted Baghdad to
keep buying Iranian gas and mentioned his fear that some
parties are politicizing the electricity sector in Iraq. Iraqi Prime
Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi's government voted Oct. 25, 2018 to
appoint Khatteeb as minister of electricity.
In its latest outlook on the global economy the World
Bank for the third consecutive time has revised downward its
expectations for growth in the Iranian economy. WB's forecast in
its Global Economic Prospects puts Iran at the bottom of
its 2019 economic growth (Gross Domestic Product) country rankings,
only ahead of Nicaragua. In mid-2018, WB had forecast a 4.1 percent
growth for Iran in 2019, but only months later in January it revised
the figure to a 3.6 percent negative growth and now it has reduced
the number to minus 4.5 percent.
Given that the immediate focus of U.S. sanctions on Iran
is the nation's oil sector, the Islamic Republic is concentrating on
pushing its already significant petrochemicals capabilities to
generate much-needed export revenues. Tehran also believes that
foreign companies - particularly those in Europe - are much more
likely to defy the U.S. in this sector than in the oil
industry.
U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS & NEGOTIATIONS
A month after sending an aircraft carrier to the Middle
East in reaction to intelligence the US claims it had
showing Iran was preparing to attack US troops, military tensions
appear to be easing, according to several US officials.
"It seems tensions have dropped some, but we are still watching
very closely, we haven't relaxed, we remain vigilant," one
defense official with direct knowledge of the situation told
CNN.
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will visit Iran to
ease rising tensions after President Donald Trump endorsed a mission
where the premier would serve as an intermediary between leaders in
Tehran and Washington. Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga did not
give dates for the trip or further details of the visit at a briefing
on Thursday, but Japanese media, including Kyodo News, said he would
travel from June 12 to 14 and meet with Iran's leaders. The trip
will be the first by a sitting Japanese prime minister to Iran in 41
years.
The US State Department has suspended funding for an
organization whose hardline stance against the Iranian
regime saw it targeting American journalists, activists and
academics whom they didn't consider tough enough on Tehran, according
to a State Department spokesperson. The Iran Disinformation Project
claims it "exposes and counters the nefarious influence of one
of the world's few remaining totalitarian regimes."
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei says
the US-devised roadmap for the Middle East
conflict known as the "deal of the century" will
lead nowhere, slamming Saudi Arabia and Bahrain as ground makers of
"such an evil plot." Khamenei made the comments as part of
his Eid al-Fitr sermon delivered to worshippers in the capital city
of Tehran. He said the deal will never succeed, and he
expressed gratitude toward Arab countries and Palestinian factions
for standing up to it.
President Trump said Wednesday that there is
"a chance" the U.S. military will take action
against Iran, after a series of escalations between the two
countries in recent weeks. Trump made the comments
on "Good Morning Britain" to co-host Piers
Morgan, who asked the president whether he was considering
military action against Tehran. "There is always a chance. Do I
want to? No, I'd rather not. But there's always a chance," Trump said. "I'd
much rather talk," he added.
The recent White House decision to speed the deployment
of an aircraft carrier battle group and other military assets to the
Persian Gulf has led many in Washington and elsewhere to assume that
the US is gearing up for war with Iran. As in the lead-up to
the 2003 invasion of Iraq, US officials have cited suspect
intelligence data to justify elaborate war preparations.
Donald Trump has told British officials he is not seeking
a military confrontation with Iran and is instead aiming for direct
talks with Tehran over his plan to negotiate and broaden the
country's nuclear deal. Despite the assurances, British
officials remain nervous the US president may have only 30 days
before Iran takes irreversible steps to forgo the agreement. The
assurance that Trump is not seeking war with Iran was made by US
officials to British counterparts in talks surrounding the
president's three-day state visit to the UK.
An unprecedented change of tone about U.S. President
Donald Trump turned out to be the highlight of Iranian Supreme Leader
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's speech on the 30th anniversary of his
predecessor's death on Tuesday June 4. Contrary to his usually
derogatory remarks about Trump, Khamenei called him "The
respectful President of the United States," while welcoming with
a smile his recent remarks about Iran being able to progress with its
current leaders.
Republican Congressman Adam Kinzinger warned on Wednesday
that Iran would be defeated very quickly if it chose to challenge the
U.S., making the comment after President Donald Trump told reporters
"there's always a chance" of war with the Persian Gulf
nation. Appearing for an interview on Fox
News' America's Newsroom, Kinzinger, who represents Illinois and
serves on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said that Trump was
right to take a hardline stance against Iran, arguing that Tehran was
the ones that had provoked Washington.
IRANIAN INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS
A fire broke out at a facility used for storing oil products
at the Bandar Rajaee port on Iran's Gulf coast on Wednesday, the
Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) reported. Firefighters were on
the scene combating the blaze, which was accompanied by explosions,
according to IRNA. IRNA did not provide any information on possible
casualties. The fire started at a machine used to lift containers at
the port and spread to an area used for storing oil products, IRNA
reported.
IRANIAN REGIONAL AGGRESSION
Arab and Muslim leaders have just concluded a series of
emergency summits in Mecca to discuss recent attacks on Saudi and
Emirati territory which US officials have linked to
Iran and its proxies. While both Riyadh and Abu Dhabi have
repeatedly said they do not want war with Iran, they have
strongly backed Washington's decision to impose sweeping
sanctions on the Islamic Republic until Iran's leaders change
their behavior.
CHINA & IRAN
Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday hosted
Chinese leader Xi Jinping for Kremlin talks that reflected
increasingly close ties between the two countries that were communist
rivals during the Cold War. At the conclusion of the meetings a joint
statement by Russia and China voiced support for Iran and commended
Iran's implementation of the requirements of the Joint Comprehensive
plan of Action (JCPOA) or Iran's nuclear agreement with world powers,
reported Russia's Interfax news agency.
RUSSIA, SYRIA, ISRAEL, HEZBOLLAH, LEBANON & IRAN
A high-ranking Syrian army commander was assassinated on
Tuesday near the city of Sweida in the war-torn country's southwest,
dozens of miles from the border with Israel. Brig. Gen. Jamal
al-Ahmad was gunned down by unknown assailants while touring the
sector, the intelligence blog Intelli Times and London-based
pan-Arabic daily Asharq Al-Awsat both reported on Wednesday.
The German Bundestag is scheduled to debate a bill on
Thursday to outlaw the radical Islamic organization Hezbollah in the
federal republic. The far-right party Alternative for Germany (AfD)
party introduced the bill.
GULF STATES, YEMEN, & IRAN
Iran's President Hassan Rouhani has stressed his
country's willingness to strengthen relations with Qatar, and
called regional tensions with Tehran "detrimental". In a
phone call on Wednesday between Rouhani and Qatar's Emir
Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, the two leaders exchanged Eid
al-Fitr greetings.
OTHER FOREIGN AFFAIRS
Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif has
recently kept busy with diplomatic visits to
neighboring countries. On May 23, he arrived in
Islamabad, his third trip to Pakistan since Prime
Minister Imran Khan took office in August 2018,
and held talks with Khan, army chief Qamar Bajwa, Speaker
Asad Qaisar and his counterpart, Shah Mehmood Qureshi.
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